SACTOBILLSFAN

The most efficient running plays in the NFL are QB scrambles, the second most effective are out of spread formations.

Not to mention he was at Pitt for like 21 years. Pickett isn't special and him starting won't suddenly make a terrible football team better.

Bad spots for teams definitely exist but this game isn't one. The Bills lost to this garbage team last year so they'll have revenge on their mind and McDermott and Frazier's scheme are hell on rookie QBs.

31-10 Bills

Being this good on 3rd and long is not sustainable. We'll always be better than average because we have the best QB in football, but we will not be this much better than league average. Our first and second down play calling has been poor, being in 3rd and 6+ is not how you win long term, and the best way to minimize the regression is to not face 3rd downs as much as the rest of the league. For an example of this, just look at the final drive in Baltimore where the Bills face zero 3rd downs.

Because passing is far and away more efficient than even the greatest running game. When you have a QB like Josh Allen calling more run plays should never be a thing. That being said, this team throws more than league trends would indicate, but they've been horrendous on 1st and 2nd downs because of this weird fascination with YAC. Josh is most effective pushing the ball down the field and its not particularly close. EDIT: I mentioned it in another thread but the Ravens have a horrific pass defense on intermediate and deep passes but best in the league at stopping short passes, yet we insisted on throwing short for the entire first half. It's why Josh's numbers look bad if you're just box score scouting.

Nope. This rule was changed like a decade ago.

On the re-watch, holy crap the Ravens were absolutely mugging Diggs the entire game.

Be a real shame if he rolled over all his Miami ML winnings into Baltimore +160 today and then hammered the live line when they were up 20-3.

Lol 2x the league average on 3rd and long at almost 70% is not sustainable in any form or fashion. If you believe that it is, you don't watch enough football.

I’m still concerned with the offense. They’re so so unproductive on early downs that it’s putting them in a spot where the best QB in the league has to bail them out. They’re currently converting at more than 2X the league average in 3rd and 7+. That’s not sustainable at all.

Baltimore has a garbage defense, but the one thing they're elite at is short pass defense and we continue to go to short passing plays. Our coaches are morons.

Lol overreact? They're getting the ***** kicked out of them because they're once again not prepared.

It's a surprise. They're getting out coached bad again. Their early down success rate on offense is bottom of the barrel and they relied on Josh to bail them out on 3rd and long and have changed NOTHING.

This is going to get ugly today. They're completely unprepared on both sides.

This is an atrocious spot for the Dolphins. I just hate the number.

not to mention Zac Taylor is a certified moron that has no business holding that job and I think the dolphins actually have a good coach.

Rain usually hurts passing offenses far less than running offenses when it’s on grass like at M&T. This is especially true when the WRs in the game are great route runners. So, that SHOULD benefit Allen and Diggs. However, the winds will be blowing directly across the field from forecast I see and that impacts throwing and kicking a great deal. But if it’s just gusty and not a sustained 15 mph cross wind I don’t see it hampering the Bills’ ability to throw all that much but we’ll see more of those short quick passes than deep shots.

They do not try to balance the money coming in anymore. You know why? More recreational gamblers are in the space and they're not going to open themselves up to professionals with large bankrolls hammering a bad number because of "balance"

The books absolutely do not do this.

Do you know what a truly elite CB is worth to a point spread? It's around 0.75 points and I'm talking a dude like Jaire Alexander. The cluster injuries are a concern, of course, but over valuing a player when it comes to overall team performance is why the public gets absolutely smoked betting NFL games.

Give me the Bills -110 for $1100, then. The Ravens defense is atrocious. I make it Bills -5.5 with the guys we know are definitely out next week. Lol no. This is how they build those big fancy buildings in the desert, when casuals completely overreact to a single data point. The Bills might lose but the look ahead line was Bills -4, so this is a half point move with the performance and almost entirely due to injuries. You should bet your house at Ravens +3.5 if you believe the Bills are actually underdogs. Bet the house then. You're getting a home team you believe is better on the plus side of the biggest key number in NFL betting.

Terron Armstead not playing is probably the biggest single injury for either team and he was DNP all week but still listed as questionable in the final report. The cluster injuries for the Bills are, of course, how great teams are brought down. But, if I had to pick a place for a Frazier/McD defense to be hit with them it would be the secondary, and I still don't think Miami will be able to run the ball even with Phillips and Oliver out.

With the amount they have to drive with their lower body I’d doubt it’s less important. Even for big interior DL that just try to hold their spot the glutes and hams are super important.

What a ***** statement