excellent post. i've been thinking along the same lines, and with the AFC North playing each other so often, it's tough to decipher if it'll take 10 or 11 wins to get in.
Next week's game is !@#$ing enormous. IMO (no statistical basis), if we win next week, I'd put our playoffs chances at 85%, a loss drops us to around 30%. If we lose at home to the Jets, in my mind I have a hard time picturing us beating them in their barn - and if they beat us twice, I can't see them finishing worse than 11-5, which effectively !@#$s us.