dave mcbride

I've long thought that they played the most vanilla scheme possible vs Jax because they were so sure that they were going to win against such a terrible (and terribly coached) team. It's as if they didn't want to give anything away to subsequent opponents. Anyway, every team has some bad games, but I will say that watching Daboll I always felt like there was a purpose -- as if he was setting up stuff for later on and subsequent games. I wish I knew more about what he did in that respect vs NE in the two no-punt games, and he clearly had the Chiefs more or less figured out by the playoffs last year. He was (and is) creative and obviously smart. I am not so sure about Dorsey. Yes, they produced a lot of points, and maybe simply letting Josh rip is a good plan. But when you get to the playoffs and face other good teams, not having a carefully thought out plan set out weeks in advance is going to cost you. That's how I felt watching them vs. Cincy. Even vs Miami they had a huge lead and almost squandered it away by doing really dumb things on offense. Some of that was Josh--insisting on throwing to a well-covered Beasley because you missed him badly on the play before probably wasn't schemed up by Dorsey. But Dorsey has to rein Allen in from doing that stuff, which he did a lot of this year. Again, it often works because he's Josh Freaking Allen, but it's not Super Bowl-level scheming to say the least. I think Daboll is at that level, and indeed it turns out KC stole that play in which Toney scored from the Bills, who used it against them last year in the playoffs. They hadn't seen it before then.

I thought you might like what Chris Simms says here: https://www.nbcsports.com/video/super-bowl-lvii-eagles-james-bradberry-holding-penalty-was-right-call

In the Mahomes era? I'm old enough to remember way back to February 2021, when a top-five defense held the Mahomes-led second ranked offense to zero TDs in the SB.

Let's look at the last decade of Super Bowl winners and use what I think is a better and more telling stat: defensive DVOA, which factors in a lot more than just raw yards and points. 2013: #1 overall defense (Seattle) 2014: #12 overall (New England) 2015: #1 overall (Denver) 2016: #16 overall (New England) 2017: #5 overall (Philly) 2018: #19 overall (New England) 2019: #14 overall (KC) 2020: #5 overall (Tampa Bay) 2021: #5 overall (LA Rams) 2022: #17 overall (KC; Philly was ranked 6th overall this year, btw) So: half of the SB winners in the past decade have had a top five defense and twice the best defense overall has won it. No terrible defenses have been SB winners either (while the 2019 NE defense wasn't great, it wasn't a bottom feeder and it stepped up to essentially win the SB vs. LA by itself).

I get that, and I just don't know because I wasn't paying super-close attention to off-ball activity and couldn't see much downfield because of the limitations of how games are broadcasted. Skyler Thompson, Tyler Huntley, and Josh Johnson, though (not to mention Brock Purdy). And oh yeah: Christian McCaffrey.

The PI call on the hail mary was just as bad as the just give it 'em call.

I get all of that. I'm now wondering whether it was Bradberry was the one interfering with J S-S on that earlier play. I can't find a link, though. I think the larger point is that guys are allowed to hold in the NFL. Indeed, Pete Carroll basically got his guys to hold almost every play because he knew the refs wouldn't call it that often (it'd ruin game flow and undermine the entertainment factor). Seattle would lead the league in defensive holding calls, but they'd also lead the league in defense ... Maybe Bradberry had been doing it all game and on a key play the ref decided that enough was enough and that he wasn't going to let him do it yet again with the game on the line. Not calling it there may have been decisive in its own way too, if you know what I mean. Regardless, it was very ticky-tack. I've gotten used to watching Tre White doing worse on virtually every play.

There are fewer blowouts, but I think that's a direct result of enforced parity (salary, no more plan B, etc. etc.) -- which is great for the game overall. There have been five blowouts in the past 24 years: Denver over Atlanta, the Ravens over the Giants, Tampa over the Raiders, Seattle over Denver, and Tampa over KC. The Indy win over Chicago wasn't really close either; the Colts dominated that game in every category. Devin Hester had a kickoff return TD that kept the Bears in the game longer than they should have been.

Not a hold, but in the early second quarter when the Chiefs were down 14-7 and with a third and 8 from their own 27 yard line, there was a blatantly obvious PI on Smith-Schuster (the defender clearly grabbed his arm and pulled it back before the ball got there) that wasn't called. I mean, it was BLATANT. I'm guessing you remember it -- Smith Schuster was livid, and rightly so. The non-call took a possession away from the Chiefs. Hurts fumbled it on the Eagles next possession, so I guess you can say "no harm no foul," but one can't predict the future. The point is, they were letting some stuff go in the secondary in that game. The PI was way more obvious than the hold. Indeed, one way to think about that defensive holding call was that it was possibly a make-up call for the earlier play (both plays involved J S-S). Perhaps the Chiefs' coaches reminded the refs about it over the course of the game. And perhaps the league may have told the refs at halftime that they blew a call. Who knows?

They really only gave up 24 points (still not great but not horrible). The defensive TD and the punt return got KC 14. Maybe KC scores a TD on their final possession instead of a FG if they needed a TD, though ...

I said at the time that the non-PI call involving Smith-Schuster on third down -- and it was blatant PI -- in the first half had the potential to be a game-deciding play. It took a possession away from KC and was one of the main reasons they found themselves down 10 at halftime. So yeah, it sort of evens out. That said, the holding call was ridiculous given a) that they hadn't called holding all game, b) the situation, and c) the fact that it was ridiculously ticky tack. I mean, that happens on virtually ever play, and it's usually worse.

A challenge for you: go back and look at the sack rates for Flutie and Johnson for the years 1998-2000. You’ll note that they are very, very different despite rhe fact that both QBs played behind the same line. @BADOLBILZ is absolutely right here — some QBs are really good at self-sacking, and Big Ben was one of those guys. And almost all fanbases outside of the early 1990s Cowboys and 2022 Eagles fanbases think their lines have massive holes.

Which throw was it?

Thanks - good stuff!

You are misreading the post. He is saying Allen has to be the bigger person.

https://saintswire.usatoday.com/2022/11/13/bills-josh-allen-injury-michael-thomas-reacts-saints-twitter/ Michael Thomas on Josh Allen's elbow injury.

Does the 2020 number factor in their first round pick, Stefon Diggs? Because he sure as hell a Bills draft pick that year.

Are we sure there’s no Tyreek Hill? Because he was fifth round pick from West Alabama. There always seem to be guys like that who pop out of the woodwork who we have no idea about because for whatever reason they’re playing in nowhere programs (I do realize why Hill was there).

Interestingly, three nfl.com draft analysts -- including Jeremiah, who is very good and talks with scouts from all the teams -- have the Bills taking Robinson. I am NOT saying I like it! But they all say that he's a legit top-ten/top-five overall player. I do believe that the Bills were going to take Etienne in 2021, by the way, but Jax snagged him. Daniel Jeremiah: https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2023-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-texans-ravens-among-four-teams-selecting I think Robinson is one of the elite players in this draft class -- worthy of a top-10 pick. However, most teams simply don’t believe in taking a running back this high, and the depth at the position in the upcoming free-agent market could impact Robinson's value on draft day. Lance Zeirlein: https://www.nfl.com/news/lance-zierlein-2023-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-buccaneers-select-tom-brady-s-successor Robinson is my fourth-rated prospect in the entire draft, so obviously I see this pick as a major steal for Buffalo. Robinson should take a considerable amount of pressure off of Josh Allen's shoulders. Erick Edholm: https://www.nfl.com/news/eric-edholm-2023-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-four-qbs-selected-in-top-10-bills-eagles-add Would the Bills really draft a back in Round 1? If Devin Singletary walks in free agency, maybe. This offense needs another outlet, and Robinson is one of the top playmakers in this class, a spectacular all-around talent worthy of going much higher.

Well, he played great in a playoff game, so that's something that sticks with me. Granted, it was vs. a total scrub, but still.

Totally true, but the issue is that he's EXTREMELY expensive salary cap-wise for a fifth rounder.

At the end of the day, he drafted Josh Allen, which means he got the biggest of all big things 100 percent right and wasn't even remotely close to being in position to land him at the start of that draft cycle (before trades). He's drafted some good players and some meh players like all GMs. Oliver is the only shaky first round pick because the DTs taken behind him in the first are generally better. But he's not bad. Allen, Edmunds, Diggs (yes, I will always treat him as a first round pick because we spent an actual first round pick to get him), and Rousseau are all good, and the jury is out on Elam.

Who is DJ? And what are the concerns?

Bernard was a Cotton Bowl MVP with 20 tackles vs Ole Miss and I wonder if the Bills overestimated him because of "the tape" given that he certainly doesn't have the build you'd expect for an NFL linebacker. Reminds me of Keith Ellison. Here's a scouting report of him. Note the "elite intangibles" - that's catnip to McDermott. So far, though, he looks like a special teamer. I don't think this is going to have a happy ending. "Undersized sub-package nickel linebacker with special-teams value on the next level. Bernard possesses elite intangibles and teams will be drawn to him because of it. He's resilient, productive and showed a willingness to play through pain. However, Bernard lacks the desired frame and play strength and will face scrutiny surrounding his injury history. He needs space to operate and has the speed for man-cover duties as a pro. If the medicals check out, he should be a Day 3 pick with sub-package value."

Good post ... except for the "2 or 20" thing. With the caveat that I'm NOT saying that chances are good that we've got a Hassan Reddick on our hands, check out Reddick's leap between years 3 and 4: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/ReddHa00.htm. I wanted to sign Reddick (as you may recall), but I remember replies to the effect that he was a one-year wonder. Epenesa HAS improved, and if he gets, say, 11-12 sacks next season, the Bills will have an interesting problem on their hands. Because he will get paid if that happens. Not saying it will! Interesting that AZ chose to pay JJ Watt over Reddick in 2021. But AZ is a bad franchise.