dave mcbride

First off, I watch a fair amount of Pac-12 games because it's my alma mater's conference (UCLA). Darnold plays well in big games and at big moments. He is also a GREAT thrower who keeps plays alive a la Big Ben. I don't worry so much about the picks either because he is only 20 years old and played tough competition almost every week. Even against OSU this year in the bowl game, he was seriously let down by WRs who dropped two perfect throws that would have sustained early drives (both were on third down in the first quarter). Failing on those drives really put them in the hole, and once they got down, he was up against the most talented pass D in the nation (DEs and secondary). Even still, he played hard and well through the second half despite being way down (8 ypa in that game). In 2017, their non-conference games were ND, Texas, and Western Michigan (which went 12-0 the previous season with Corey Davis). In 2016, just look at the offensive production starting in game 4, when he took over the job. http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-16/2016-usc-trojans-football-schedule.php#

Philip Rivers is a GREAT player who has been snakebitten. One name captures his bad luck: Marlon McCree. All you need to know. If not for him, the Chargers are likely the 2006 season SB winner.

I would bet a lot of money that he ends up going #1 to the Browns.

Ha! I actually like Rosen quite a bit; I just think Darnold is a better player and will be a better pro. I'd be happy with either, but if I had to pick one, it'd be Darnold.

You're trolling me, right??

Darnold got a 7.0 rating, and Mahomes a 5.8. Rosen is a 6.1, and both Mayfield and Allen are 6.0. My understanding, however, is that while the difference between 5.8 and the low 6s may seem small, it's considered pretty relevant. 6.0 is the cutoff for a presumptively good starter. Below that, the projection gets dicier.

There's always a discount involved with future picks. I'm not sure how the discounting works in terms of points, but firsts in subsequent years are generally regarded as seconds.

I don't think so. These trends depend on the perceived value of the player. If we're talking about, say, Darnold, he's far more highly rated than Mahomes.

I haven't liked a prospect more than Darnold since Andrew Luck. I think he has greatness in him. We shall see.

Aaron Schatz is obviously joking, and he's also one of the best NFL analysts on the planet. He created and runs Football Outsiders.

I guess I'd add that McCarron - who I don't dislike! - played on an offense filled with 5-star recruits. My guess is that Garrapolo did more with less. He was actually drafted a lot higher than McCarron, so there is that. To my eye, he also just looks like a better qb than McCarron. But McCarron will have his shot, and maybe he'll excel. His problem is that he'll be throwing to what is currently a rock-bottom receiver corps.

If you're going to use small sample sizes, you better include McCarron's playoff game, in which he had a rating of 68.3 on 41 attempts: 56.1 completion rate, 5.2 ypa, 1 TD, and 1 pick.

Knock Roger Staubach out of your equation. He was drafted one year before he finished at Navy as a "future" pick in 1964 (which the league allowed) because he had to server four years in the Navy after finishing. Everyone knew he was a great player at Navy -- indeed, he was the best player in the country! -- but they also knew that he couldn't play until 1969. He's an anomaly and should not be included.

I don't understand your question.

Football is the ultimate team game. Put Philip Rivers on the Broncos, and he's the qb for multiple super bowl winning teams. Same goes for Drew Brees on the Ravens. QB is the most important position by far, but the QB can't do everything. They can only control what they control.

good stuff. where is this from?

I'm one of those weird people who is a Davis Webb believer. I liked him at Cal and thought he looked like a really good pro prospect.

Every year people say qbs are going to drop. They almost never do, and this is a year in which the top five prospects are actually very promising. Teams that need one will almost certainly trade up.

You're crazy, Yolo! There is zero chance 4 qbs don't go in the top ten. Mayfield will be one of them.

4 in the top 10, and I think it's quit possible they all go in the top 5. After that, I don't know, but I expect Lauletta to go in the second round.

I have been seeing a number of conversations in which people posit this scenario. I would bet most of my possessions that there is not a snowball's chance in hell that a running back -- no matter how good -- is going to go #1 in a draft top-heavy with elite QB prospects. I humbly suggest going forward that we all dispense with the idea that this is a possibility. Dorsey is NOT taking a running back #1 overall. He is not stupid. He is taking a QB (presumably Sam Darnold), and I believe that this will be quite clear long before April 26.

Agreed. This past season was very fluky - in a bad way - for the Giants. I think the 2016 team is the real one. OBJ is gonna come back at 100 percent, Solder is a huge upgrade, and they have defensive talent. They need a back, a TE, and interior linemen. They also only have 5 picks. Eli can still play. When I watch him, he looks. Like EXACTLY the same player he was in 2011. Good analysis.

Yep. There is also zero chance that cleveland is spending the #1 overall pick on a running back.

The Browns are taking Darnold. That is virtually a lock.

Absolutely no (with emphasis). They are drafting a QB.