dave mcbride

I can't think of a worse hit to a qb (important qualifier) in my decades of watching football.

False, simply put, at least for that season, which was first one in which he was named the starter. In the first four games of that season, he threw it 120 times for 949 yards. That's 7.9 ypa, which is well above league average. It is amazing to me that given what we know now, people discount the effects of that hit, which is one of the worst I've ever seen delivered to a qb.

See above. It is well established that severe concussions have effects that set in over time, especially when other subsequent hits are added in. The san diego game argument has been on this board for a decade now, and it's a weak argument. If that had happened to me, i would not be able to do my job.

In all seriousness, PCP would make a lot of sense. But the trying to jump out the window part? Shades of Diane Linklater.

I.e., a bad draft for the difference making positions outside of qb.

Who at the premier positions - DE, LT, WR, and CB - are going to be available at our slots? It's a bad year for DE, WR, and LT. I don't know about CB, but we shouldn't be drafting CB anyway.

Darnold is 4rd overall at 7.0. Barkley is #1 at 7.4, Nelson is 7.3, and Chubb is 7.3.

Your last paragraph captures my view to a tee.

There is a significant difference depending on the prism you're looking through: have the Bills ever decided that they had enough confidence in their evaluation skills to draft a qb from college -- the players that are actually drafted! -- with either a) their first slotted pick or b) via a tradeup? That's the prism I look through. Your point about Kelly is a fair one. That said, it would have been sadly funny if the Lions had surprised the Bills and taken Kelly instead of James Jones at 13. The Bills were confident they wouldn't, but that logic seems pretty shaky in retrospect given that their qbs at the time were Gary Danielson and Eric Hipple. I'm guessing Lions fans rue that draft a lot.

My quibble is treating a future first rounder as equivalent to a first rounder given that it should be discounted by a round. Regardless, they've never had the guts to take a guy fresh out of college with their first slotted pick. In the cases of RJ and Bledsoe, they let other NFL teams develop them first and formed opinions based on their pro experience, not their college experience. That is a BIG difference.

Because Smith appears to be a generational talent - arguably the best LB prospect in a decade. Good teams don't draft for need!

Nope. Disagree.

Kiko Alonso was actually really good this year for the Dolphins (despite being a thug). Cornelius Bennett wasn't drafted by Polian, but for all intents and purposes he was a Bills draft pick.

The draft is about projection, as I've said over and over. Darnold -- who, again, is 20 -- can do things that Rosen can't do, and always performed better than Rosen in the bigger games (e.g., Stanford, an elite program). He has a better arm, is way better at extending plays, and while he's more of a damn-the-torpedoes gunslinger, I'm ok with that. He had a good season this year, and in both of his seasons he's played reasonably tough competition nearly every week. You do realize that one of the UCLA tackles (Kolton Miller) is likely to be drafted in the first round, right? Having said all of this, I like Rosen a lot and would be thrilled to land him.

you also are one year closer to being fired - and almost everyone gets fired at some point.

He's young - as in really young. I don't worry so much about that. He's played two seasons against the highest level competition in a pro-like offense and unlike so many college qbs, he LOOKS like a pro thrower out there given the sorts of throws he tries to make. Mistakes are part of the learning process. There is a reason why he's pretty much the consensus #1 pick.

First off, I watch a fair amount of Pac-12 games because it's my alma mater's conference (UCLA). Darnold plays well in big games and at big moments. He is also a GREAT thrower who keeps plays alive a la Big Ben. I don't worry so much about the picks either because he is only 20 years old and played tough competition almost every week. Even against OSU this year in the bowl game, he was seriously let down by WRs who dropped two perfect throws that would have sustained early drives (both were on third down in the first quarter). Failing on those drives really put them in the hole, and once they got down, he was up against the most talented pass D in the nation (DEs and secondary). Even still, he played hard and well through the second half despite being way down (8 ypa in that game). In 2017, their non-conference games were ND, Texas, and Western Michigan (which went 12-0 the previous season with Corey Davis). In 2016, just look at the offensive production starting in game 4, when he took over the job. http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-16/2016-usc-trojans-football-schedule.php#

Philip Rivers is a GREAT player who has been snakebitten. One name captures his bad luck: Marlon McCree. All you need to know. If not for him, the Chargers are likely the 2006 season SB winner.

I would bet a lot of money that he ends up going #1 to the Browns.

Ha! I actually like Rosen quite a bit; I just think Darnold is a better player and will be a better pro. I'd be happy with either, but if I had to pick one, it'd be Darnold.

You're trolling me, right??

Darnold got a 7.0 rating, and Mahomes a 5.8. Rosen is a 6.1, and both Mayfield and Allen are 6.0. My understanding, however, is that while the difference between 5.8 and the low 6s may seem small, it's considered pretty relevant. 6.0 is the cutoff for a presumptively good starter. Below that, the projection gets dicier.

There's always a discount involved with future picks. I'm not sure how the discounting works in terms of points, but firsts in subsequent years are generally regarded as seconds.

I don't think so. These trends depend on the perceived value of the player. If we're talking about, say, Darnold, he's far more highly rated than Mahomes.

I haven't liked a prospect more than Darnold since Andrew Luck. I think he has greatness in him. We shall see.