dave mcbride

The crime rate among NFL players is heavily affected by the fact that they have median salaries of $860,000 per year. Moreover, I am talking specifically about violent crime (and violent crime only; beat in mind that non-violent drug offenses make up a huge percentage of arrests): “Though NFL players had a higher arrest rate for violent crimes during six of the 14 years studied, ...” And this is despite the fact that they are far more financially secure than the general population. And wealthy NFL players aren’t doing stickups on the street. Also: “Note that murder scores relatively high, but the raw numbers are extremely low (there are two in the database, though a third case — domestic in nature — resulted in suicide). But there are 83 domestic violence arrests, making it by far the NFL’s worst category — with a relative arrest rate of 55.4 percent. Although this is still lower than the national average, it’s extremely high relative to expectations. That 55.4 percent is more than four times worse than the league’s arrest rate for all offenses (13 percent), and domestic violence accounts for 48 percent of arrests for violent crimes among NFL players, compared to our estimated 21 percent nationally. Moreover, relative to the income level (top 1 percent) and poverty rate (0 percent) of NFL players, the domestic violence arrest rate is downright extraordinary. According to a 2002 Bureau of Justice Statistics Reportcovering 1993 to 1998, the domestic victimization rate for women in households with income greater than $75,000 (3.3 per 100,000) was about 39 percent of the overall rate (8.4 per 100,000), and less than 20 percent of the rate for women ages 20 to 34. That report doesn’t include cross-tabs, and it’s a little out of date (more current data is harder to find because more recent BJS reports on the issue do not include income breakdowns), but that sub-20 percent relative victimization among high-income households is consistent with the NFL’s 13 percent relative arrest rate overall (arrest disparities between income levels are probably even greater than victimization rates).” https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-rate-of-domestic-violence-arrests-among-nfl-players/

Yup. You have to a real affinity for violence to succeed in the NFL, and as I’ve said for years and years, “if not for the NFL, jail” for a distressingly high percentage of players. To expect people to be rewarded for that level of extreme violence 20 Sundays a year plus lots of practices and then to be able to immediately turn it off is ignoring human nature.

6.40 https://www.nfl.com/prospects/josh-allen/3200414c-4c52-9264-bedc-c4ddaf201fe7

Yeah, agreed. I also think that Darnold is an upgrade from Bridgewater, who is never going to get any better than he currently is. Bridgewater will never be anything more than a better-than-average backup (meaning he's still pretty valuable!), but Darnold promises more than that. It's still an open question whether he pans out, but he has a lot more upside than Bridgewater. Moreover, Ruhle can't have another losing season or the sharks will start circling.

I am not sure of the substantive point you are trying to make (other than snark). The Bills hired a SB-caliber DC and have gone to the playoffs in 3 of the past 4 seasons after going 17 straight years of not making the playoffs. Also, Joe Douglas worked in the Ravens personnel department for 16 years and was the VP of player personnel with the Eagles when they built a juggernaut beginning in 2016. The Eagles had the best roster in the league in 2017.

Things can turn on a dime with the right management. They were 1-15 in 1996 under Kotite, and then Parcells came in and changed the culture. They had only 3 losing seasons over the next 15 years, 7 playoff appearances, and 3 championship game appearances. They may have that now. I like their coach a lot, and Joe Douglas knows what he's doing.

He literally had the greatest season by a Bills receiver in franchise history, and I include Moulds’ 1998 season here. He is also likely the primary reason why Allen’s completion percentage skyrocketed upward — he is practically always open. Talk about looking a gift horse in the mouth!

Ask your friend about the parade of horribles since Jeff Garcia. As I said in one of my other posts in this thread, too many fans think the only two categories are “great” and “sucks!”

Yup. Austin has had a bad career despite hanging around for a long time. There was so much buzz about him too the year he came out.

Stefon Diggs is without a doubt an elite talent. It’s not even arguable. He has literally been one of the most uncoversble receivers in the league a few years running, and the advance stats prove it.

Why do you think he goes undrafted?

I don’t think he’s great; I think he’s good. There is a big range between “great” and “sucks,” although a lot of fans seem unaware of this. I think Shanahan obviously wants what he thinks is a better option, but my point is that Garappolo would represent a significant upgrade for the Pats. He is very good playing in tight-end driven offenses, and NE has the personnel for that now. Garappolo isn’t going to win a super bowl by himself, but in the right situation can be positive piece of the puzzle. You have to admit that he’s a lot better of an option than Newton. In my view, NE is likely to make the playoffs with him at the helm given the roster and their superior coaching. That’s obviously bad for the Bills because it autmatically means two very difficult divisional games for them.

That’s missing my point. I do think that if Mac Jones is there, there is a solid chance they take him. However, at 15, I just know if anyone will be available. I don’t know if the Niners want Jones or Lance. That’s the big question. If Jones, I wonder if any of the QBs get out of the top 10.

I’m old enough to remember when paul poszluzny was considered injury prone by bills fans. Then he went to Jax and played for a decade while only missing 8 or so games. NFL injuries are random and capricious. there is absolutely a zero percent chance russell wilson plays for the pats next season. Ze-Ro. It’s an implausible scenario.

No, wilson is not an option. He is going number 2 overall. And I sincerely doubt watson ends up in NE given Kraft’s own “happy endings” issues. That seems completely implausible to me, and anyway watson is going to probably be suspended.

Ask your niner friend fans about the team’s record with him and without him.

They aren’t plausible, so I don’t factor them in. JG is their best option at this point, particularly given BB’s age.

The Pats are a great organization with a good roster now. With Garappolo, they are a 10-12 win team and represent a real threat. They won 7 last season with a joke of a roster. I totally disagree with you about his game.

Garappolo is a legit good player. The mocking on this site is entering know-nothing territory. The last thing I want to see is him playing for NE next season.

AFL founder Lamar Hunt said that the origin of the Chargers name came from the charge card business, which was an innovation in the 50s/early 1960s. Barron Hilton (son of Conrad Hilton), the first owner, had just started the Carte Blanche charge card business. Hilton denied it, but the legend is a powerful one. Anyway, it appears that the Spanos family may have taken the team name a little too much to heart! (Another interesting aside: Trump reportedly loathed Barron Hilton with a passion (both were in the real estate and hotel business), yet his son is named Barron. Go figure.)

He had more than one good season. You have to factor him in as a kick returner when judging him. He was an amazing returner for the Vikings. Talent-wise, he was absolutely elite even if the numbers weren't there. A lot of those fake jet sweeps to him opened up big plays for others too given that he was so dangerous on that play. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HarvPe00.htm

I do think he starts out by stressing that what is effectively your position dominates the nfl, and for good reason. He then shifts to contrarians arguing otherwise, and frankly i was more interested in their views because the conventional wisdom—which I agree with—is old hat at this point. He could have done something with the interesting argument that you should only keep rbs for their first four years by adding that, as you say, there’s an opportunity cost with this approach (i.e., drafting an o-lineman in the first instead who might be be a steady 10-year contributor for you).

Um, Sammy produced pretty darn well in a Roman offense with Tyrod throwing the ball - in 13 games in 2015, he had 1047 yards, 17.9 ypc, and 9 tds. His one elite season was under greg roman with tyrod throwing the ball.

Did you see the Mark Gaughan column? Good piece. https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/first-round-running-back-for-bills-what-history-and-analytics-say-about-the-idea/article_aa5d29a6-8e3e-11eb-97a7-5775771608b4.html That’s what the Gaughan column today focuses on.

I like Tyrod, but Jackson is 10 times better than Tyrod. And as I said above, homogeneity sucks. The NFL's problem is that everyone runs a version of the same offense -- except for a couple of teams, most conspicuously the Ravens. I sincerely love the fact that there's a team not running a generic pro-style offense that's actually effective. To reiterate, sameness is boring.