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But increasingly, teams are starting to take the big plays away from the Bills. Or at least try.

Am I wrong in saying the Packers/Jets (and also the Chiefs) played far more coverage vs the Bills than they are accustomed to seeing? We went from seeing Josh Allen throwing to wide open receivers every time - everyone literally running in wide open space everywhere - to now it seeming like almost no one is open outside of Diggs when he runs a brilliant route. The Bills ran it quite a bit (for them) vs the Chiefs and Packers. Likely were on a track of running quite a bit today until game flow/situation dictated that they don't (Jets possessed ball 8 mins to open 2nd half, then built small leads etc.)

I agree that no Tyreek makes the Chiefs easier for Buffalo to stop. But KC still moved the ball just fine vs the Bills in the game a few weeks ago. The Chiefs went 6.3 yards per play. The 24-20 final was a bit misleading on the whole. Both teams had a redzone turnover. KC missed a FG. Each team only got nine real possessions. The final score probably should have been something closer to 31-30. KC YPP vs Bills last five meetings (since 2020): 7.6 6.9 6.4 5.0 6.3 (Week 6)

This wasn't a 2022 move for the Chiefs. This was a 2023-2025 move. They get Toney cheap. Reports surfaced before the '21 draft that GM Veach loved him. Now he gets his guy and he fills a need for next year (goodbye Hardman.) The Chiefs are probably happier with Toney than any receiver they could have drafted next year. Historically, new WRs take time to acclimate to Andy's offense (it's no surprise Skyy Moore has started slow.) I can't think of many who have come in and made instant impacts. Reportedly, this addition doesn't take the Chiefs out of play for OBJ either. (The trade for Toney might have in part been motivated by the 450k the Chiefs just saved from Frank Clark's two-game suspension.) The net of the Chiefs Tyreek Hill trade is starting to look really smart. The Chiefs have reloaded in a major way and look super healthy for another 5-year run. They added four rookies who look like they'll be long-term impactful — DE Karlaftis and CB McDuffie and WR Moore and CB Watson — and they are already using three other defenders in the rotation from the '22 draft (CB Williams made the INT last week vs 49ers; LB Chenel and S Cook have both played significant snaps.) KC's cap situation is fantastic: Next year the Chiefs have the 13th most cap space (and will be able to free up more space). Mahomes' deal is super team friendly and can be easily reworked. They have all their picks next year (actually a few extras). Had they kept Tyreek, they'd have almost no flexibility, and would not have been able to stockpile as much draft capital as they have. Oh, and then the obvious: KC's offense is #1 DVOA offense in the entire league. They lead in PPG despite playing many good defenses (Bills #1; Bucs #5; 49ers #7, Colts #11; and Chargers D pre injuries piling up.) The Tyreek Hill departure makes them less scary on offense, but it hasn't made them less efficient to date. And in theory, the new crop of WRs are just getting chemistry down with Mahomes. It's very early.

arrowhead stadium remains in terrific shape. i've been to plenty of stadiums. my favorite place in the NFL to watch a game is arrowhead. the new stadiums like SoFi, Allegiant, Mercedes Benz, US Bank, etc, are all sights to behold and they are modern marvels. But you simply don't feel like you're at a football game in these stadiums. The atmosphere just doesn't feel natural. Hard to explain.

DVOA is adjusting for schedule strength. Traditional points allowed stats - besides being often misleading (ie special teams or defensive scores; turnovers that set up short fields etc) - means very little in terms of predictive value. If KC played a schedule consisting of Bills, Ravens, Eagles, Chargers, Dolphins, Bengals, you'd expect their defense to perform far worse than if they played a schedule consisting of Panthers, Colts, Bears, Commanders, Texans, Steelers. DVOA helps iron all this out.

I realize it's the world that we live in, but I get so sick of the QB driven takes. The Bengals cooked up a brilliant 2nd half strategy and worked it to perfection. They out executed the Chiefs. The Bucs front 7 overmatched the Chiefs' brutal OL in the Super Bowl. I loved Andy's tone in the postgame press conference today. He didn't fret on the loss. It was more, "Man, this was a great game! You just love to compete in these types of games. The Bills got us on a couple plays. Our young DB's hung in there. Then they got exposed a bit. But still, this is why you compete, to play great opponents like this in games like these!" Buffalo's #1 priority in the offseason: Improve the pass rush. Reason: To help them get off the field vs the Chiefs. Today, their pass rush delivered when it mattered, and they got just enough stops. Mahomes was pretty damn good today. What stood out to me was how many of his passes were thrown into tight windows against great coverage. The Chiefs got 6.3 yards per play (and nearly 400 yards) but they had to work hard for them. By contrast, I thought Buffalo's offense simply came easier - especially in the 2nd half. Either way, two great teams, two great QBs, two great coaching staffs. This is going to go down as the 1990s Cowboys/49ers, 2000s Pats/Colts.

The Tyreek trade made the Chiefs less explosive, but they had to make a move to help them build a better defense. KC is the inferior team to Buffalo this year - and arguably was last year, and arguably was the year before! - entirely due to their weak defense. Mahomes' brilliance has helped the Chiefs overcome some pretty big warts during this five-year run. But it's time for the Chiefs to get serious about building a defense. KC's DVOA defense ranks in Mahomes era: 27th, 14th, 22nd, 24th, 15th (this year). Buffalo's DVOA defense: 2nd, 7th, 12th, 1st, 2nd (this year) The Chiefs are an unfinished product on defense, but they're going to make some strides by the time the playoffs roll around. Through six games, they've had ONE interception — and it came on a play when a Chargers receiver basically decided to take a breather at the snap. That said, these teams are just in different places. It's Buffalo's time to break through. It's all there for the taking. Outside of the Eagles - who I still suspect is a fraud - I don't see many serious threats in the NFC. And for all the talk about the AFC being a super conference, the only teams that seem like a viable threat to the Bills is KC or the Chargers (if they get healthy.)

Andy Reid needed to let some time run off the clock before calling timeout on the 3rd and 13 play. I would have taken it down to 60 seconds. The Chiefs had all the time in the world if they had gotten a stop. Instead, because the Bills converted, the Bills had all the time *they* needed to get a score.

Where do the Chiefs have an advantage over the Bills? Anywhere? The Bills have a better overall pass offense. They have a better run defense. They have a better pass defense. They are more reliable in the kicking game with Butker out. The only area where KC is better is in the run game. But over the last 2.5 years, I can only think of one game where the Chiefs won primarily due to a run-first approach. It just so happened to be the game vs the Bills in 2020 (you could argue last week vs Bucs too, but Mahomes was pretty special in that one and did his fair share.) The 2020 game, the Chiefs followed the blueprint laid out by the Titans a week prior. Buffalo's run D was brutal. KC took advantage. The Bills addressed that issue, got better as the season wore on, and has since evolved into an elite unit. If the Chiefs try to go run heavy (I think there's a strong chance they do), the Bills will get enough early-down stops to force the 50/50 3rd-and-longs and will get off the field enough times. I just don't see KC's defense getting off the field once the Bills cross midfield. Buffalo is too hard to stop in four-down territory. Outside of Mahomes doing Mahomes things and Arrowhead Stadium magic, I just don't see KC being a serious threat here. I think the Bills get ahead early, maintain a lead throughout, and the Chiefs (if they play well) will keep it close but never seriously threaten. These teams are simply in different places right now.

the chiefs had the refs in their pocket in ways i've rarely seen in an NFL game that 2nd half. it was really something else.

the chiefs looked like complete garbage for an entire half. then a bad flag that went against them swung everything in their favor. crowd got crazy. refs have been in andy's pocket. and then mahomes did mahomes things. just like that, deficit gone.

Arrowhead is about to go batshit insane. Turn down your TV volume.

it's KC Wolf, and it's the best mascot in the NFL!

I mean, you can keep saying that sort of stuff. But it's not reflective of reality: https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/nfl-odds-how-much-home-field-advantage-worth-spread

HFA being worth 3 points is terribly outdated. Homefield is widely viewed as a 1.5-point standard these days. A few teams - such as the Seahawks, Chiefs and likely the current version of the Bills stadium - are worth perhaps 2 points. Maybe 2.5 points in rare occasions. But I don't think any of them are worth more than that. Some are likely only worth 1 point (think LA Chargers or Vegas Raiders, who are essentially playing in neutral stadiums.) The use of instant replay and having so many on-field cameras has helped reduce referee bias and clean up mistakes. Teams are smarter than ever before in terms of making travel accommodations. Road trips just aren't that bad anymore. In the StubHub era, roughly half the league's teams don't have significant home-field advantages and many of them have home-field disadvantages in terms of the crowd when the road team is a traveling fan base (ie Buffalo, Kansas City, Dallas, Pittsburgh, etc.) Offensive teams communicate more efficiently than the old days. Watch old videos from the 90s and notice how often teams break the huddle with 10 secs left on the play clock and then are racing to get the snap off as the home crowd roars. Nowadays, teams break the huddle faster and are not pressed against the clock like they used to be (aside from Nathaniel Hackett's Broncos.) I don't have data beyond 2009, but that year there was 21.41 false starts per team, compared to just 18.09 false starts per team in 2019. Add it all together: You have easier, more accommodating travel for players; you have fairer refs whose biases get cleaned up by replay; you have home fields that are in many cases being overran by visiting fans; and you have road teams who are more adept at communicating in the environments that are truly hostile.

The Chiefs are not currently a favorite at any sportsbook in the entire world. The lowest line offered anywhere is Bills -1.5. The majority have Bills -2.

The Chiefs' defense is better this year than last year, and they've been without rookie CB McDuffie since the season opener (expected to return vs Bills). Not having Willie Gay is tough. And KC's secondary is very young and in my view not yet ready to compete with Diggs and Davis. The Chiefs have made strides vs the run but that potential strength is neutralized by the fact that Buffalo will probably abandon the run and will be all too happy to destroy them through the air. Buffalo's D can get KC's offense off the field a handful of times and the Chiefs will be lucky to force more than a punt or two. I think Andy is going to try a plan similar to the 2020 game in Buffalo (run heavy to start, see where it takes 'em). I think he likes KC's chances to run the ball on Buffalo's front 7 after what they were able to do vs Tampa. KC's receivers have done a poor job of getting separation so far. I don't see them having a ton of success through their if they become one dimensional.

The influential betting group @RASPicks released Bills -3 this morning, moving the line to -3.5 and then -4 at some places.

as an outside observer, i came into this season certain the bills were the #1 team in the league and this outcome only reaffirmed it. you won't see a more dominant looking box score between two playoff level teams the rest of the year. this was a one-sided game. 40 mins to 20 mins TOP. 31 first downs to 15 first downs. 11-of-18 on 3rd down to 3-of-8 on third down. 497 yards to 212 yards. if you didn't watch the game and saw only the box score, you'd assume the bills were far and away the better team. now add the context of missing five defensive starters, having a rotating cast of OL who were in and out, another handful of players who were exiting the game due to being exhausted by the heat or sickness or both...and it's clear who is the better team (and who will be going forward). despite all the pre-game losses (including late scratch to morse) and the matchup disadvantages, the bills still closed as a 4-point road favorite. they're a 3-pt road favorite next week at the ravens (despite likely having a poor injury report again). this team is a juggernaut.

i've watched the dorsey vid about 100 times. it is one of my favorite sideline/press box reactions ever. i'm so sick of coaches and players who are hyper aware of cameras on them at all times who then become boring robots. if you feel like ripping up your papers and spiking your tablet, have at it.

Where does Hyde rank on the top 5 most irreplaceable players on the Bills defense?

It's the Bills and everyone else. They will be a 2-pt favorite at KC. Everyone will freak out and say the Chiefs are being disrespected. And the Bills will absolutely crush the Chiefs, likely by multiple scores, and they won't be less than a 3-point favorite in any game the rest of the year. I am a KC fan. I have frequented this board the last few years only to keep tabs on the Bills. Last year was supposed to be Buffalo's big breakthrough. It wasn't. They addressed all the offseason needs (mainly the pass rush) and got even better. I've already heard some of the comments: "Well, Stafford has a noodle arm," and "The Titans stink." Oh, stop. These were absolute maulings. Both games huge overperforms, both games essentially over by the time the 4th quarter started. Buffalo crushed the Rams and shut down their passing game without blitzing a single time. Then they smoked the Titans, primarily stuffing the box and shutting down Henry (and still being near perfect vs the pass outside of one drive despite missing a Pro Bowl CB and having rookie DBs on the field). I have quite a few friends who are Bills fans. I want to hate. But I can't. This looks like the most complete team I've seen in the NFL since realignment in '02. The Chiefs have been great the last four years. But they've had an above average defense exactly 0 times in the Mahomes era. They've always been beatable, but Mahomes always seems to find a way (55% win percentage when KC falls behind by 10 pts, just ridiculous.) This offseason I totally expected defenses to find an answer for slowing down Buffalo's offense. Not stopping—but slowing down. The same way defenses have been able to make KC dink-and-dunk their way down the field. Through two games, that's out the window. The Rams were decent at it for a few quarters, then fell behind, got impatient and Diggs beat them deep. Against the Titans (admittedly outmatched in the secondary), they played some of the dumbest coverages I've ever seen and got beat deep multiple times. KC's defense has had mixed results vs Buffalo's offense, but I like how the Chiefs have played them on the whole (especially in the AFC title game in 2020). They're aggressive, they bring blitzes from every angle (essentially flooding passing lanes with DB's), and they force you into making some difficult throws. They can live with getting beat deep and don't play scared. The Chiefs need to add a piece or two at the deadline. I'm bullish on the D coming together by season's end. The Bills are going to be able to get off the field against KC and probably force three or four punts. I can't say the reverse is true, at least not yet. My AFC ratings: Bills Chiefs -4 pts worse Chargers -4.5 Ravens -5 Broncos -6.5 (bad start, but strong team) Bengals -6.5 (bad start, but better than this) Dolphins -8.5 (good start, but still skeptical)

i get so sick of INT commentary. it is very hard to not throw interceptable balls in the modern NFL the way teams are playing defense. you've got teams dropping seven into coverage, sometimes eight, and in the case of the chargers it's elite level players at multiple positions. you've got mack and bosa breathing down your neck. you've got samuel, jackson and others in the secondary glued to receivers. and then you've got LB's just roaming around. all the while, DC's are throwing crazy coverages at you (mahomes admitted afterward he was tricked on the samuel throw; the announcers tried to make it sound like it was kelce reading the coverage wrong). playing QB in the NFL is like playing Plinko. last year, mahomes had five INTs that bounced off a receiver's hands before being intercepted. this year, he's thrown a handful of passes that could have been intercepted but has ran pretty lucky. allen's first INT vs the rams was an unfortunate fluke, and his second INT was a contested ball that was quite literally ripped away from the receiver's hands. i thought allen played at an unreal high level last year and yet he threw a career-high 15 INTs. throwing downfield in the current NFL carries a level of risk. the QBs who aren't willing to take any calculated risks and would rather dump it underneath all game probably aren't going to be leading efficient offenses in the end.

The Chiefs are going to have a lot of growing pains. Super young team especially on defense. 1st round CB McDuffie misses, and in the end, it's a 7th round rookie CB who becomes the hero. Tonight was a great test. They played a C+ game and got out with the win. Not bad.