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Sounds like you'll be making a lot of money. And by definition, a division game is NOT a coin flip when the spread is -7 or higher.

They're a 1-point underdog to the Browns. They'll be a near pick 'em at Bengals. They'll be a near pick 'em at Colts. They'll be a 5-pt underdog at Seahawks. They'll be 7-pt underdog at Ravens. So basically they'll be a coin flip three times and a sizable underdog twice. They will almost surely drop at least two more games, probably three, and as many as four. That means 12-5, 11-6 or 10-7. All of which are definitely not good enough to secure the #1 seed.

https://www.newyorker.com/sports/sporting-scene/a-gambling-sharp-breaks-into-the-nfl There is, of course, more than one way to succeed. Sharp’s multiple revenue streams—gambling, talking about gambling, advising other gamblers, and consulting for N.F.L. teams—all bring their own rewards. Sharp has a young son, and he told me the story of watching an N.F.L. game with him on TV, last winter. As one team approached the opponent’s goal line, he told his son to keep an eye on a rarely targeted tight end, who, on the very next play, caught an improbable touchdown. “I’m embarrassed to say I jumped up and started swinging my jacket in the air,” he told me. “I was so happy.” Days before, Sharp had sent the team’s offensive play-caller a weekly memo with strategy suggestions, including that pass. I phoned the coach to ask about the play. He chuckled, perhaps hesitant to disclose a secret weapon, before confirming that he had, indeed, run a Sharp special. “We talk at least once a week,” the coach said. “I have a lot of respect for Warren. I like surrounding myself with intelligent people. Football is a thinking man’s game, too.”

So Josh Allen is doing too many commercials and his "mind is not on football." Are you suggesting that Mahomes' mind is not on football? Is Kelce's mind not on football? How do they keep winning, year after year, while simultaneously golfing all summer, doing SNL, dozens of commercials, traveling around to MLB playoff games and World Series games and Taylor Swift concerts in Argentina (in season!) Mahomes is at MLB and NBA games at least once a week. Even Andy Reid has been in State Farm and Snickers commercials just this year. Is his mind not on football? You can walk and chew gum at the same time.

Says it was one of the weakest taunting calls he's ever seen. Linked to clip: 1:33:34 mark.

the best coach comparisons for mcdermott based on his current trajectory: tony dungy bill cowher marty schottenheimer dungy and cowher broke through. marty did not. i'd argue marty was likely the best of the three.

gotta hand it to burrow, have resisted calling him 2nd best QB but he's pretty damn legit.

the world has discovered today that the 2023 chiefs are a defense-first team

nobody roots for injuries quite like this place, it's bizarre

andy definitely used some of his playoff plays on that opening drive. everything schemed wide open.

mahomes 20/23 for 323 yards in a half and the chiefs merely lead by 7. the NFL is crazy.

the offense looks surgical in ways they haven't so far. extra time seems to have been well spent.

For the last three years, you people complain because the Bills don't blitz enough. Now they blitz TOO much.

Yep. Thanks a lot Roger. Asinine trip to London, the team got jet lagged and probably still hasn't readjusted their body clocks. Sunday night game, then big surprise, on the road once again.

thank you refs!!!

wasnt that the play the chiefs used in the super bowl?

the bills entered tonight as a top 3 DVOA offense.

lol what a gift

I will be absolutely shocked if the Bills don't score a touchdown here. Enough is enough.

its not fair that the bills had to play a week after traveling to london.

nope, the OL is absolutely awful.

can we go ONE game around here without making it all about the refs? just ONE!? there isn't a grand conspiracy to screw the Bills.

Understood. But you're essentially calling a sacrifice bunt (running a play unlikely to convert a first down) in favor of setting up a 3rd-and-5 (which teams convert 44% of the time.)

I think most teams utilize the run (especially 1st down runs) way too often on their own side of the field when the most important thing should be third-down avoidance. 3rd-and-2 from your own 30-yard line is a "favorable" position to be in, but you're a stuffed run or a batted down pass away from punting. There's almost zero third-down situations in your own territory that I would desire, and if you have multiple 3rd-and-shorts in your own territory on a single drive, the odds of multiple conversions is less than 50-50. Yet most coaches live for such opportunities. Once you cross the 50, the run game - especially first-down runs - should become far more prominent. You now have four downs to work with instead of 3. No modern team with a good offense like Buffalo is going to punt on 4th-and-3 from the opponent 41 these days.

the andy reid offense takes forever to learn. even their second year players like toney and moore still seem incredibly lost. i don't think the chiefs will find any receiver who can make a major impact. maybe as a package player, but not an every down wide receiver.