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The point is, his outing this game isn't all that different than his outings vs the "fully loaded" Bills defenses. What from the past convinces you he wouldn't torch whoever the Bills put on the field? Kelce has posted numbers basically every playoff game of his entire career, including the past two years while surrounded by nobodies at wide receiver. (By the way, after his TD early in the third quarter, Kelce caught one pass for six yards the final 26:48 of the game.)

Kelce's career games vs Bills: 13 catches, 118 yards, two TDs ('20 afc championship) 5 catches, 65 yards, two TDs 8 catches, 96 yards, one TD 6 catches, 57 yards, one TD 8 catches, 108 yards, zero TDs 6 catches, 83 yards, zero TDs 5 catches, 75 yards, two TDs ('23 divisional round) Kelce's best-ever game vs the Bills in the 2020 AFC championship game came against a fully-healthy Bills roster with in-their-prime Poyer, Hyde, White, Johnson, Milano, Edmunds all on the field. Arguably his second-best game vs the Bills—easily his most memorable given the game-winning catch in OT—came against another completely healthy Bills defense. Kelce has cooked basically every defense he's ever played in the playoffs. We've seen Kelce run circles around Milano in two prior playoff games and caught the game-winner over him in the divisional game. In fact, Milano has gotten crucified in the past for getting beat in playoff games, and how many times have we read here, "Why is Kelce always open!" Mahomes targeted Kelce on 39.5% of his pass attempts in the 2020 game. He targeted Kelce on 26% of his pass attempts in this year's game. The Bills haven't had an answer for Kelce for four years now.

And yet despite this, the Bills closed as 2.5-point favorites and the over/under for the game was bet lower, closing at 45.5 and 46 everywhere. If losing a LB and a replacement level backup was significant and meant as much as people here suggest, we would have seen money come in on the Chiefs or we would have seen money come in on the over or we would have seen Travis Kelce over catches/yards get bet way over. We didn't see any of these things. The global betting market, which accommodates enormous six-figure limits at most sportsbooks, kept the Bills as 2.5-point favorites; and the prop market, which is lower limits but still very sharp overall, barely budged on Kelce's game projections. The Bills defense, who had as many regulars missing as the Chiefs did (KC entered without starting safety Cook and starting DT Nnadi, then lost safety Edwards and LB Gay early) were tasked with stopping a Chiefs offense that consisted of: Patrick Mahomes Travis Kelce Isaiah Pacheco Two HORRIBLY graded tackles (Smith, Taylor) A very strong interior OL (All-Pro LG Thuney exited 3rd quarter with injury) WR's consisting of: Rashee Rice, Justin Watson (0 catches), MVS (2 catches), Hardman (1 catch, 1 backbreaking fumble), Richie James (0 catches). Three of KC's receivers from this horrid group missed with injury (Skyy Moore, Justyn Ross, Kadarius Toney) as did their best pass-catching back (Jerick McKinnon.) Again, if you can't stop this offense, not sure what to say.

It hadn't really occurred to me - and it gets lost with the greatness of the finish - but if the Bills didn't convert the 4th-and-13 with 1:54 left in the '21 divisional game, what became the best playoff game in NFL history would have likely finished: Chiefs 26, Bills 21 KC: 359 yards on 6.2 ypp BUF: 347 yards on 6 ypp Mahomes would have finished 23-for-31 for 188 yards and one TD. Instead, he finished 33-of-44 for 378 yards and 3 TDs entirely inside the 2 min warning and OT.

The Chiefs have scored 31+ points in 9 of their 18 playoff games with Mahomes. They average 29.2 points per game and 6.3 yards per play. Only the Bucs and Ravens kept them to less than 20 points—and if we're being honest, the Chiefs could have had more vs Baltimore if it was absolutely necessary. These stats are despite KC playing five games in freezing temps, five with a compromised Mahomes (left early with foot injury vs Browns '20 and didn't return, played hurt vs Bills in '20 AFC title game; left early with high ankle vs Jags '22 Divisional but came back, played hurt vs Cincy '22 AFC title, reinjured ankle vs Philly Super Bowl) and despite them blowing out six opponents where they lost incentive to keep scoring. To be clear, the Bills defense has definitely come up short vs KC in the playoffs. There's no doubt about that. But they're hardly alone.

The 2020 game was played in the rain. The Chiefs ran 46 times vs 26 pass attempts (completed 21-of-26 passes for 225 yards and 2 TDs anyway.) Giving up 6.4 ypp against a predominantly run-based attack is a terrible defensive outing. Most Bills fans I know found that particular loss to be demoralizing due to it being a physical beatdown. The 2021 game was the lightning suspended game where the 2nd half was also played in the rain. The Chiefs were 5 YPP (clear underachieve) and had just 20 points, but self destructed with four turnovers. The Bills were far superior here, no argument there, and I'd say this was the one game out of the seven recent meetings where the D performed well. The 2022 game, in the first five games of the year pre Chiefs game, the Bills allowed: 3.7 ypp, 3.5 ypp, 5.4 ypp, 4.6 ypp and 5.1 ypp. Then they gave up 6.3 to the Chiefs, which was their second-worst defensive outing of the year. An endzone INT and a missed FG prevented the Chiefs from getting 30 points. Again, the Bills did enough here to get the win, including holding strong on KC's final drive. The 2023 game, the Chiefs offense - horrible as it was all regular season, recycling through awful WR options, and down Pacheco - actually performed better than expected. They had 5.6 YPP (would have finished with 6.7 yards per play had the Toney play stood). KC's D held Buffalo to just 4.5 yards per play. In four regular season games, KC has still been 6.1 yards per play vs the Bills, which is basically a full yard higher than the Bills typically allow.

We are where we are because you state Mahomes is a "tick" better when he's off to the single-best start to a career in NFL history, with an overloaded trophy case, and comparing him to a guy who hasn't had to cancel his early February Pebble Beach tee time since he's been in the league. I mean what are we doing here!

Three of the Bills' five worst defensive outings in five years - regular season and postseason, a sample of 80 plus games - all have come against the same quarterback. Again, the Bills have a Patrick Mahomes problem. They have for the last six years. They likely will for the next six years. The sooner you come to terms with that, the happier you will be.

Bills defense in playoff games, Josh Allen era: vs Texans - 5.5 yards per play allowed (gave up 19 pts in regulation) vs Colts - 6.2 yards per play allowed (gave up 24 pts, bills led by 14 pts until late rally) vs Ravens - 4.7 yards per play allowed (gave up 3 pts) vs Chiefs - 7.4 yards per play allowed (gave up 38 pts, removed four KC kneel downs for -4 yards) vs Patriots - 5 yards per play allowed (gave up 17 pts, including a garbage-time TD) vs Chiefs - 7.6 yards per play allowed (gave up 36 pts in regulation) vs Dolphins - 3.3 yards per play allowed (gave up 31 pts, but includes defensive score and two other scores via TO) vs Bengals - 5.9 yards per play allowed (gave up 27 pts, removed two CIN kneel downs for -1 yards) vs Steelers - 5.1 yards per play allowed (gave up 17 pts, including gift-wrapped score off blocked FG) vs Chiefs - 8.5 yards per play allowed (gave up 27 pts, removed four KC kneel downs for -6 yards) The common narrative here is that the Bills defense "comes up short in the playoffs." The truth is, against non Chiefs playoff opponents, the very strong Bills regular season defense has performed the exact same in the playoffs. Against non Chiefs teams (2019 thru 2023), Buffalo's defense gives up an average of 19.7 points and 5.1 yards per play in the playoffs. That's exactly on par with their regular season performance during the same years (2019 thru 2023), where they allowed 19.2 points and 5.14 yards per play. But against the Chiefs, the Bills come up short. In their 10 playoff games, their three worst games in yards per play have all come against the Chiefs. These aren't just bad performances, they are epic bad, and would rank among their very worst in a sample of 80+ regular season games in that time frame. Again: vs non Chiefs: 5.1 yards per play, 19.7 points allowed vs Chiefs: 7.8 yards per play, 33.6 points allowed Do you see the difference? The Bills don't have a playoff defense problem. They don't have a "paper tiger" defense problem. They have a Patrick Mahomes problem.

The Chiefs have scored the following in playoff games under Mahomes: 26, 27, 17, 25, 27, 23, 38, 42, 42, 24, 22, 38, 9, 51, 35, 31, 31, 31. That's an average of 30 points per game, with the vast majority of games being played in cold conditions. There sure are a lot of paper tiger defenses out there!

A paper tiger come playoff time. Because they lost to ... who ... Mahomes. Mahomes again. Joe Burrow. Mahomes again. Paper Tiger ... or ran into the best QB we've probably ever seen three times?

DVOA rankings of the Bills and Chiefs last four years: 2023: Bills #3, Chiefs #5 2022: Bills #1, Chiefs #4 2021: Bills #2, Chiefs #6 2020: Bills #3, Chiefs #5 The Bills have built a superior all-around team to the Chiefs, fueled largely by a defense that until this year was better than the Chiefs every season of Allen and Mahomes' careers.

The world-class head coach pre Mahomes was constantly ridiculed as being a playoff failure with clock management problems. Mahomes changed the narrative of Andy's entire career. The world-class DC oversaw a tire fire of a Rams team (2009 to 2011), coordinated the worst defense in the history of the NFL (2012 Saints), served as a Ravens defensive assistant in 2013 and as their secondary coach in 2014, then coordinated a Giants defense that finished last and second-to-last in yards allowed two of his three years (2015 to 2017), and then was out of football entirely the year before the Chiefs hired him. The GM, best guess, looks a lot smarter when he has a unicorn at QB. His calculated risk of going with entirely young WRs this year backfired spectacularly, saved only by the brilliance of Mahomes. Andy Reid playoff record pre Mahomes: 11-13 across 19 seasons, zero Super Bowls. Andy Reid playoff record with Mahomes: 15-3 across 6 seasons, three Super Bowls. Gee, what changed?

I'll take this as confirmation that you're throwing in the towel on your stupid talking point.

The Chiefs played a "team game" post Len Dawson for nearly 50 years before Mahomes arrived. It resulted in zero Super Bowl appearances. Now they play in Super bowls like they're going out of style. I'm sure it's just coincidence. Rory and Spieth have won major championships. Josh Allen has won Wild Card games vs backup level QBs and a divisional round game. Great comparison!

Argue semantics all you want, but Mahomes is Tiger and Allen is basically Rickie Fowler in this equation.

They won two division titles in five years with Alex Smith, missed the playoffs once, and lost playoff games to a team that didn't score a single TD and another playoff game to Marcus Mariota who caught a TD pass from Marcus Mariota. Playoff record with Alex Smith: 1-4. Playoff record with Mahomes: 15-3 and three Super Bowls wins. Hmm.

Mahomes has played six NFL seasons. He's led a team that was literally nothing before he arrived to six straight AFC championship games. The Chiefs have hosted five of them. They've won four of them. They've had three Super Bowl wins. Mahomes is a two-time league MVP, a three-time Super Bowl MVP, a multi-time All Pro. His Chiefs have beaten Allen's Bills all three meetings in the playoffs, two home and one road. He's 15-3 in the postseason with 5,135 yards, 41 TDs and 8 INTs. His playoff losses have been to Brady twice (once in OT) and another OT game. He's rallied his team from 10-point deficits in three different Super Bowls. He's led a 24-point playoff rally and is 7-for-7 rallying a trailing team to a score inside 1 minute in playoff games. He's led his team down the field in 30 seconds to force OT in one playoff game and in 13 seconds to win another. He's won two Super Bowls with league-average defenses and another with the worst collection of receivers in the league. Josh Allen is 5-5 career in the playoffs. He's beaten the likes of Skylar Thompson, Mason Rudolph, fossil Phillip Rivers, Mac Jones and playoff choker Lamar. Your statement has no basis in fact. Your projection going forward ignores a six-year sample size.

He is "way better" than Mahomes 🤣

The fact is, Klein or no Klein, the Bills (like most teams) haven't been particularly good at slowing down Kelce. Milano was fully healthy for at least three previous iterations of Chiefs-Bills from 2020 thru 2022. No matter who the Bills put on him, he succeeded. 8 catches on 9 targets, 96 yards, TD 13 catches on 15 targets, 118 yards, two TDs 5 catches on 7 targets, 65 yards 6 catches on 10 targets, 57 yards, TD 8 catches on 10 targets, 108 yards Kelce had the game-winner over Milano in the 13 seconds game and had 21 catches on 24 targets for 214 yards and three TDs in the 2020 and 2021 playoff games. This year, without Milano, Kelce had 6 catches on 10 targets for 83 yards in the regular season game and 5 catches (6 targets) for 75 yards and two TDs in the playoff game.

Not every donation is being harnessed via GoFundMe. The Chiefs announced Friday that they, the Hunt Family Foundation and NFL have made a combined $200,000 donation to the #KCStrong Fund, a new endeavor created by the Chiefs and United Way Greater Kansas City. In addition, the new fund-raising site showed Friday that Patrick and Brittany Mahomes — along with their “15 & the Mahomies Foundation” — also donated $50,000.

On what planet isn't it comparable? The Bills had almost every single player on offense available. All five starting offensive linemen, all their running backs, Josh Allen, all their tight ends, and every receiver except for Gabe Davis—and most of us think the offense has run better with Davis off the field. In fact, his absence helped Shakir get more snaps, and Shakir finished with a team-best 7 catches. So the Bills were down Davis on offense, while the Chiefs were down Toney (sucks), Moore (decent but mostly sucks), McKinnon (great weapon for KC) and lost Thuney (All Pro) in the third quarter. Nothing to really write home about for either team on offense. Defensively, after the first series, the Chiefs were without starting safety Mike Edwards and starting linebacker Willie Gay. They began the game without starting DT Derrick Nnadi. Their original starting safety Bryan Cook (Edwards is a backup) was injured a month earlier. Buffalo had its entire defensive line available to play. They had their two starting safeties Hyde and Poyer who played every snap. Taron Johnson, Rasul Douglas and Dane Jackson all played 100% of the snaps. Yes, the Bills lost Tre White early season—but his loss necessitated the trade for Douglas who gave them better play than White was giving them. So 9 to 10 of the Bills' defensive regulars on defense played to capacity, and 10 (arguably 11) of their best offensive players played. Buffalo had access to 19 or 20 of their 22 best players overall. If you read this forum, you'd think they played with about six healthy players. The biggest loss was obviously Bernard, which led to Klein being on the field, who the Chiefs targeted repeatedly. But again, the collective absences - clustered as they were - weren't what many here make them out to be. The Bills began the week as 2.5 point favorites and finished the week as 2.5 point favorites. There is such a thing as building roster depth and developing young players who can perform when needed. If being without Terrel Bernard and a couple replacement level defensive backups is enough to tank your season, then you weren't very good to begin with. The Chiefs replaced DT Nnadi with a heavier dose of journeyman Mike Pennel (signed off the street midseason) and Matt Dickerson (undrafted, journeyman, practice squad regular); they gave Willie Gay's snaps to offseason signing Dru Tranquill (most snaps he had since Week 12) and LB Leo Chenal (3rd round pick in his second year.) They gave safety Edwards' snaps to fourth-round rookie Chamarri Conner, who played 99% of snaps and actually performed great. Thuney was replaced by Nick Allegretti, the try-hard backup who was a former 7th-round pick. Outside of Kelce and Rice, Mahomes was throwing balls to MVS, Noah Gray, Mecole Hardman, Justin Watson and Clyde Edwards. The degree of difficulty wasn't exactly high! It is without question the worst collection of offensive talent the Bills will face in the next several years when going against the Chiefs. And yet, the Chiefs offense did what the Chiefs offense did in prior playoff meetings vs the Bills — even when the Bills were fully healthy, even when the Bills had top-5 level defenses — they ran circles around them.

The Bills did a pretty good job of sustaining drives and maintaining possession in the playoff game vs the Chiefs. Buffalo faced 3rd or 4th down 17 times in the game, including: 3rd-and-17 4th-and-1 3rd-and-8 3rd-and-8 3rd-and-12 3rd-and-10 4th-and-3 3rd-and-9 They converted 7-of-14 on 3rd down and 2-of-3 on 4th down. This was definitely an overachieve vs KC's defense and likely a bit lucky. The Bills also did a nice job of playing a fairly clean game offensively. The only offensive penalty of any substance was the illegal batting penalty after the Diggs fumble. Otherwise it was a pretty clean game. The turnover battle was technically won by the Bills 1-0. But it was really 0-0 for all intents and purposes. The Hamlin fake punt was essentially a turnover, and it was quickly offset by Hardman's fumble out of the end zone. Where the Bills did get a bit lucky is recovering both the Diggs fumble (opening drive) and the Allen fumble (final drive), which would have been a game-ender had KC dove on it rather than attempt a scoop-and-score. The Bills had about three good chances to make plays downfield but couldn't come up with any of them. This was probably the most alarming part of the game. In the history of the NFL, has a top-5 offense ever ran 78 plays and have NONE of them go 20+ yards? The biggest play of the game was an 18-yard Josh Allen run. No pass (of 39 attempted) went for a gain of more than 15 yards. As a result, the Bills went just 4.7 yards per play. In the regular season game vs the Chiefs, they went for just 4.5 yards per play (42 pass attempts), their 2nd worst output of the entire season. So two games vs KC, 151 plays (81 passes), 4.7 yards per play. The Bills definitely did well at "taking what the Chiefs gave them," but neither output was as impressive as people think, and the 3rd and 4th down conversion rate is likely unsustainable.

Now that Mahomes has three Super Bowls in his pocket, a guy who was already motivated by legacy is now going to be consumed by it. When the Chiefs began their mini rebuild, 2022 and 2023 were supposed to be the lean years. Instead they won two Super Bowls. They always expected 2024-2026 to be the years where they'd take off. Now they're in very healthy shape cap wise. They should be able to retain most of their key parts. Bryan Cook and Charles Omenihu will return from injury to add to a defense that might only lose Willie Gay and a couple of reserves. The Chiefs' 1st round pick in 2023, DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah, will get a ton of snaps after getting largely a developmental year as a rookie. Mahomes will restructure and save them a boat-load in the short-term. Pending UFA's are likely to choose the Chiefs over slightly better offers in hopes of chasing the threepeat (including Chris Jones, who publicly said he's coming back.) The Chiefs will have the money to pursue a top-tier WR and are likely to draft a receiver in the first round. Every assistant coach, including Spags, is coming back. They might be able to lure Bieniemy back in some sort of offensive assistant role. The 2024 Chiefs might be the best version of the Chiefs we've ever seen if they stay healthy.

KC was down their top 2 safeties (Cook and Edwards) and a starting LB (Gay) vs the Bills. They lost their All-Pro left guard (Thuney) in the third quarter. Hard to lose a #2 wide receiver when every receiver on the roster besides Rice sucks. They were without Skyy Moore and Toney - two of their seven receivers on the team - and didn't have Jerick McKinnon, their best pass catcher out of the backfield. This year's Chiefs offense stunk. They won a Super Bowl with a receiving corps of Rice, MVS, Watson, Hardman and Richie James, two god-awful tackles and a backup LG filling in for an All-Pro on offense, and a center who snapped worm burners into the turf all game. They can play another decade and not have a worse offense than they had this year.