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There aren't many teams that are immune to this sort of thing. I could go up and down the list of NFL teams who have had a cluster of player arrests in a given span of time over the last 20 years, including the Bills. In a span of roughly three years, Whitner, Hargrove, Parrish, Lynch, Simpson, Lynch (again) and Whitner (again) were all arrested in the late 2000s. More recently, Ed Oliver (2020), Tyrel Dodson (2019), Zay Jones (2018), Adolphus Washington (2017), Jonathan Williams (2016) were arrested. Overall, there have been 23 Bills player arrests since 2000. Mike Vrabel, in his one year in KC, was arrested for stealing alcohol from a casino deli. There has been an average of more than 50 NFL arrests every year since 2000, and every team in the league has had 20+ arrests in that span aside from Detroit (19) and Houston (16) — and Houston didn't enter the league until 2022.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2021/10/30/22754574/willie-gay-jr-opens-up-about-his-mental-health-struggles

The background: He suffers from mental health issues. Andy has given him some space at times this year. https://www.kansascity.com/sports/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/article254867282.html

Performance in "one-score games" is one of the dumbest stats and always has been. The Bills lost a "one-score game" to the Steelers. Pittsburgh led by 10 pts with 45 secs left and it became a "one-score game" only because the Bills decided to kick a first-down field goal to cut it to 7. The Bills didn't touch the ball again after attempting an onside kick. The Bills lost a "one-score game" to the Bucs, but only because they made a crazy comeback to force OT and then never touched the ball due to the NFL's dumb overtime rules. I consider the games vs Jags, Pats and Titans to be more reflective of what this stat is attempting to measure, which is end-game variance, luck, the ability to win in the clutch (if you think such a thing is an actual skill), etc.

Tacking onto my earlier post revisiting the October Chiefs-Bills matchup, one thing that's of note is the Chiefs defense was actually able to get off the field quite a bit. And they did it without Chris Jones, no Melvin Ingram, no Charvarius Ward and a very limited Willie Gay (first game back from IR). The Bills had nine non-kneel down drives and punted on four of them (three 3-and-outs). -3 plays, minus 14 yards, punt -3 plays, 8 yards, punt -4 plays, 41 yards, punt -3 plays, 0 yards, punt Another drive would have ended with a 3-and-out but a 3rd-and-17 pass that was intercepted was nullified by a roughing the passer penalty. The Bills took advantage of that penalty and scored a game-sealing TD (when the rain started to fall, no less.) In the two 2020 matchups, the Bills had roughly ~20 'real' drives (I excluded, for instance, the 2-min drill Allen INT in the regular season meeting.) Out of those 20 drives, the Chiefs got the Bills off the field eight times (40 pct of the time). -6 plays, 26 yards, punt -5 plays, 10 yards, punt -3 plays, 7 yards, punt -12 plays, INT -3 plays, 0 yards, punt -8 plays, 21 yards, punt -4 plays, 17 yards, punt -3 plays, 5 yards, punt If the Bills play offense like they did vs the Patriots, or like they did in the October matchup vs Chiefs, then they are going to put up their fair share of points against KC's defense, even if KC plays perfect D. KC playing perfect defense won't stop Buffalo's offense. But KC's defense, even as pathetic as they were early in the season, seems to have a knack for getting off the field. They do it by playing press coverage, jamming receivers, throwing off your timing, by bringing heat from everywhere, and when Chris Jones is on the field, he can single-handedly blow up a drive (as we saw in AFC title game.) Going to be a fun game. Looking forward to it.

Agree, Chiefs are far scarier with McKinnon in the backfield than CEH. He brings more speed and explosiveness to the table and he lines up all over.

Somewhat forgotten in the October Chiefs-Bills game is that from an offensive standpoint, the Chiefs early on were doing essentially what they did to the Bills in the two 2020 meetings. KC's first drive was 17 plays, 56 yards and used up 6:30 of clock and led to a field goal. Chiefs had it 2nd-and-7 at Buffalo's 14-yd line before a false start and a pair of incompletions. Buffalo responded with a quick TD. KC fumbled kickoff. Bills were forced to punt. KC's second drive was 12 plays, 80 yards, took 8 mins off the clock and ended with a TD. So one-third of the way into the game, the Chiefs held a 10-7 lead, ran 29 plays for 116 yards, and maintained possession for 14:30 out of a possible 20 mins (despite the KO return turnover.) I maintain that this no-blitz, force them to dink-and-dunk strategy is the best for the Bills. True, it didn't work in either game in 2020. But the breaks went Buffalo's way this time. KC's yards per play on those 29 plays was 4 yards. Their biggest gains were 15 yards (two to Tyreek, one to Kelce.) That's pretty good defense! And the Bills were able to get them off the field a handful of times the rest of the game—though to be fair, KC's self destruction (and bad luck) was a major factor. A few caveats to note however: In October, Mahomes was still playing super aggressive and was trying to push the ball downfield any chance he got. Since midseason, the Chiefs have gotten very good at playing these conservative no-blitz defenses and they've sustained drives largely without the mistakes that plagued them early in 2021. In October, KC's completely rebuilt offensive line was still working out the kinks. It wasn't known until after, but Joe Thuney played almost the entire game with a broken hand. In October, the Bills had Tre White; this time they obviously don't. The Bills can overcome his absence but it is a tough blow. In October, the Chiefs weren't getting as much out of their quick pass game to RBs and receivers. Over the last few months, we've seen Darrel Williams excel as a pass catcher out of the backfield; we've seen increased quick passes and jet sweeps to Mecole Hardman, who is scary with the ball in his hands; and against the Steelers, McKinnon had a breakout performance and flashed what he can do out of the backfield and as a pass catcher. It's going to be interesting to see what the Bills do defensively. I think they should stick with what they've done and hope that turnover variance and penalty variance swings in their favor. The downside though is that this strategy significantly shortens the game (see KC's long drives above, and also back in some of the 2020 games), and if Buffalo falls behind early, it creates quite a bit of pressure on the offense to be perfect.

I can help here! Every team in the NFL playoffs is max motivated.

Belichick will coach a minimum of four more years. He's 38 wins behind Shula for #1 all time. He will do it out of spite.

Never, ever, ever buy Super Bowl tickets until at least the Monday before. Prices fall. That will be especially true in this new LA stadium where capacity can reach 100k.

You can also buy up to 30 minutes after the event's start time. Bills-Pats tickets were selling as low as $10 by the second drive. Lower level 40-yard line could be had for $55 plus fees.

There are a minimum of 5,000 tickets on the re-sale market for every Chiefs home game, regular season or playoffs, for the last decade. It's fairly common at almost every stadium with rare exceptions. The Bengals playoff game for example never had huge resale inventory, and those that did hit the resale market were priced very high (get-in cost to enter Bengals-Raiders exceeded $200 after fees all the way until early Sunday.) Obvious reason: There was unreal demand to witness history. Bills fans got ***** from people because tickets fell to as low as $27 by Wednesday and there were several hundred seats that remained unsold as of gameday morning from the box office. Given the lack of full capacity home games (zero in 25 years), it was understandable criticism given that Bills fans love to portray themselves as "the best" and yet seats were re-selling for less than parking costs. All that said, the criticism was obviously unfair given that it was historically cold and arguably unsafe for older fans.

Every Chiefs ticket but a handful has already been sold through the box office for the Divisional round, and the TBD AFC title game is also sold out. Tickets on resale market will skew pretty high to start. By midweek, you'll see them start to come down. The current cheapest lower level pair between the 20s is $417 per ticket after fees. Between the 40s, lower level, the current low is $510 per seat and many are considerably higher (currently in the $600-$750 range.) The face value on the best club level seats are $750 after fees, and re-sale market will often have them priced 1k and above. If you want to settle for club level corners or club level end zone, you should be able to find them for as low as $400/each after fees by Thursday or Friday. Upper level seats you'll be able to get nosebleeds for as low as $125 after fees now, and probably close to $100 as we get closer to kickoff. Much like Buffalo, KC fans aren't exactly flush with cash. And the ticket prices are pretty much the most expensive they've been in recent memory. Season ticket holders like to re-sell their playoff seats for profit and then buy lesser seats at a cheaper cost. You will often see 7k on the re-sale market (roughly 10% of the overall seats) early week, and then that number will be less than 1k on gameday morning. One variable at play here is the Titans-Bengals game. If the Titans win on Saturday, you will see prices go UP by late Saturday evening into early Sunday, which is the opposite of what usually happens. Right now, lots of Chiefs fans I suspect are sitting on the sidelines and/or saving their money for a potential AFC title game. The recent AFC title games vs Titans and Pats at full capacity were record setting for Arrowhead in terms of cost. One major word of warning to those who intend to travel to KC by plane. The airport is currently TERRIBLE. On a recent trip to KC, we had to wait through literally 1,000 people — all entering through security at ONE gate. Anyone who attended Bills-Chiefs in October can attest to how bad it was. I was at the game this past weekend and it was much the same this morning. The airport is building a new terminal, but the current situation is just rotten. Crammed to the max, with huge swaths of people tucked in like sardines at the gates. If you worry about Covid, you won't be pleased. EDIT: I should add, getting into the stadium this past weekend was the worst experience I've had in 20 years of attending games at Arrowhead. Not sure if it's a result of short staffing due to Covid or what, but everything from parking, to getting into the stadium (lines were terribly slow, many missed kickoff), to painfully slow concessions, to getting out of the lots after the game were the worst I've ever seen.

I will have to kindly disagree with this. I think the Pats' defense benefited from an extraordinarily easy schedule and good fortune with weather. The Pats got to play the first Bills game in 40 mph wind. They got to play Brady/Bucs in a downpour. They got to play the Titans without Derrick Henry, Julio Jones or AJ Brown. Beyond that, they got to plat the Jets twice, the Dolphins twice (D got worked in the finale), the Jags, the Texans, the Panthers. A few of the better offenses they faced, like the Cowboys and Colts, they got absolutely worked. The Pats had a good D. But by season's end, particularly with some of the late injuries before the playoff game, this defense was not to be feared. Say what you want about the Chiefs' D — it clearly wasn't good enough early — but they played a brutally hard schedule this year and have to be thrilled with where they're at after such a poor start.

I've watched every snap of the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era. I can't think of a single time they've taken an opponent lightly. This sort of thing simply doesn't happen. Fans? Sure. Two of the most competitive humans in the world? In the playoffs? Not a chance.

Chiefs fan here. First off, Chiefs Planet is a terrible forum. I stumble into more good Chiefs discussion here than I do there. The mods on that site have lost control or don't care. Now to the (potential) Chiefs-Bills game ... Let me get this out of the way: I think the Chiefs' mini AFC dynasty will end vs the Bills. But Buffalo will have to earn it. The Chiefs aren't the same team you saw in Week 5. That particular Chiefs team was still struggling against the two-high coverage that every team is using to take away the deep pass; the completely rebuilt offensive line was still getting used to each other; the offense was turning it over at a league-high rate as typically reliable pass catchers made repeated mistakes; the defense inexplicably had Chris Jones lining up on the outside; Frank Clark wasn't fully healthy; a few secondary pieces were banged up or out; emerging young LBs Willie Gay (reactivated from IR, played very few snaps) and Nick Bolton didn't see as much action; safety Dan Sorensen was taking FAR too many snaps (since been replaced in starting lineup); and Melvin Ingram had yet to be acquired by trade (he has made a monster impact.) In short, you might have witnessed the worst version of the Chiefs we've seen since before Mahomes became the starter in '18. The Chiefs' offense, you might recall, ran circles around the Bills in the AFC title game last year. The Bills have since improved their pass rush (and LB Milano is healthier than he was last year), which helps. But with Tre White out for this year's matchup, I'm unconvinced the Bills' defense made a monster jump from last year as far as matching up with the Chiefs' offense. (On that note, I would be genuinely interested in hearing why the Bills' defense is so much better positioned to slow the Chiefs this year?) All that said, the Bills offense is on a roll. The Chiefs had no answers in the regular season meeting (for many of the seasons I stated above.) They'll have more answers this time around, but probably not enough of them. With the Bills' emerging run game, the increased use of Josh Allen in the QB run game, the deep cast of reliable WRs (I seriously love this unit), Knox playing at a high level, the OL providing amazing protection (wouldn't have thought this was possible at the midway point of the season), I think the Chiefs are going to have their hands full. I also think the Bills will utilize fourth down this year better than they did in last year's AFC title game—where McDermott's overly conservative decision making literally cost them any chance they had after a gifted 9-0 lead to open (following Hardman's punt return fumble at the goal line.) I should also point out the obvious and say Daboll is in a play calling rhythm that will no doubt lead to him being a head coach somewhere next year. Everything works when he wants it to work. I put zero stock in the Falcons, Panthers or Jets games. The conditions were suboptimal and I don't think the Bills really cared to show much of anything. When they had to crank things up — in both games vs Pats — they played near perfect offense. Same thing in the regular season meeting at Arrowhead. I have no doubt Daboll will give the Chiefs things they haven't seen. The Bills have worked all offseason for this very moment. I've enjoyed every second of this current Chiefs' run under Andy Reid. They've done amazing things and it's been a fun ride. I think the Chiefs will rebuild and reload and be a factor in the AFC for years to come. That said, you Bills fans have suffered enough. And I think you will suffer no more. Good luck and for those making the trip to the LOUDEST outdoor stadium in the world, safe travels!

There are exactly 151 seats that went completely unsold via the Bills box office as of 45 mins before kickoff. Surprising, yes. But it's not thousands.

Chiefs fan here. I'm surprised by the low ticket prices but far from shocked. There's lots of reasons why demand hasn't been what we all expected. Most obvious: People are getting COVID! The 7-day average in Erie County is 2500 cases. We can be certain the real number is probably closer to 5x-10x higher. Every day this week there are probably 500 would-be attendees who are testing positive and therefore can't go or won't go. I'm traveling to KC this week for the playoff game as I do every year, and one of our group members just tested positive. There's lots of groups out there—two people or four people—who probably have a member test positive and then scrap their plans. Or they can't get on the same page due to disagreements over COVID or COVID protocol. One guy's wife doesn't want him to attend because he might infect the kids. One guy's usual companion at games doesn't want to wear a mask in the car ride over. One guy doesn't want to go because he'll get called "selfish" and "irresponsible" by the mother-in-law. On and on and on. Now throw in the freezing cold. Now throw in the fact that the nosebleeds at stadiums like Highmark are terrible. People forget this: Buffalo and KC, two of the smallest markets in the NFL, have stadiums with capacities of 71k and 76k respectively. The new stadiums in LA, San Francisco and Atlanta all have less by comparison. KC has endured some of the most expensive home games in recent memory—vs GB, vs Dallas, vs Pitt, in addition to expensive home games in primetime—and now they could play two, possibly three home playoff games, each round getting more expensive than the next. Every seat in the upper level is sold this week. I have no idea how. KC, much like Buffalo, isn't exactly an economic hotbed. And oh by the way: Almost every Bills seat is sold. We're discussing re-sales here. And not re-sales in the lower sections, which are still priced competitively by typical standards. We're discussing re-sales in the upper levels among people who are looking for bargains and happy to wait for one. Anyway, good luck this week and we hope to welcome you to the LOUDEST outdoor stadium in the NFL next week!

Vinovich and Cheffers crews called both games consistent with how they called all games that year.

This crew tends to not be overly flag happy. On the year, they threw 11.5 flags per game (league avg is 11.82). Last year they were even lower at 10.2 flags per game, which was barely behind the Bill Vinovich crew, who is annually the least flag happy crew in the league (Vinovich's crew did the AFC title game last year vs the Chiefs.) Allen's crew did the Bills-Saints game and only threw eight flags. They have called a near-league low for offensive holding penalties at 1.81 per game. (Compare that to Carl Cheffers and Clete Blakesmans' crews who have called more than 3 such penalties per game.) The Allen crew does call a bit more than league avg defensive PI calls however (1.19 per game). If the Bills advance, they should be cheering hard to get either the Cheffers, Hochuli or Martin crew as all three call absurd numbers of defensive PI, etc penalties. An underrated part of last year's AFC title game was Vinovich's crew letting the Chiefs DB's get away with murder—something the Chiefs could NOT get away with in the Super Bowl vs the Bucs with the Cheffers crew.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-buffalo-bills-got-the-least-bang-for-their-schedules-buck-this-season/?ex_cid=538twitter

Browns have reopened as 4.5-point favorites.

Not really. The next games are selling for similar price. As low as $14 for Falcons and as low as $15 for Jets game. The home schedule did ticket prices no favors but Bills tickets are routinely far lower than other playoff caliber teams, including small market teams like KC, Indy, GB, NO. Titans hosting Dolphins next week, cheapest seat in the house is currently $130 after fees.

Carrier Dome used to not have air conditioning, it does now as of fall 2021.