NYT Playoff simulator has us at 25% chance to make it. I'm not sure if their model takes into consideration teams losing their starting QBs for the season. It would make past results for those teams a lot less indicative of future results. Steelers and Browns both looked terrible today on offense, but somebody had to win. Texans barely beat an awful Cardinals team. Things feel wide open if we can play up to our ability.
Here are teams within 1 game of a spot and their remaining SOS:
Browns* (7-3) #25 SOS
Texans (6-4) #23 SOS
Steelers (6-4) #27 SOS
Bills (6-5) #2 SOS
Colts* (5-5) #26 SOS
Bengals* (5-5) #1 SOS
Raiders* (5-6) #6 SOS
* Indicates they lost their starting QB for the year, or have benched their starting QB for the year
The Bengals and Raiders are done IMO based on their QB situations and SOS.
Of the top 5 remaining teams we still have h2h matchups, so some guaranteed losses in there.
Houston vs Browns
Houston vs Colts
Steelers vs Colts