Tanoros

Agreed about not all times/starts being equal. But that is also what makes DVOA more accurate than yards/points leaders at the end of the year. The sample size for DVOA data is MUCH greater than things such as yards/points which are based off of 17 games only. DVOA is based off of many more games that 17. When comparing numbers, it’s more beneficial to have dats sets with more data than less, thus making DVOA a bit more accurate. I’m not trying to say the Bills defense is all world or anything close to that. But, what I am trying to point out, is our defense/pass defense was very good last year, much better than just playing against poor competition and thus having an overinflated ranking. Our last game of the season tends to skew everyone’s opinion of our defense, then the critics point to poor completion we played against. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. The Pats had the number 2 defense/pass defense and were destroyed by Allen, then our number 1 defense was destroyed by Mahomes the following week. It’s quite possible that these super star QB’s are elite defense proof to some degree when they are on. There are plenty of examples of the defense (ours or Pats against us) doing everything exactly they way they should have, and Allen/Mahomes still beating the defense for gains. You can’t stop that, and judging our defense based on super stars doing super star things isn’t given them the credit they are due. We have to look at large data sets and not a couple games/plays. Hopefully getting Von and improving our pass rush helps with slowing down the super star qb’s a bit. It’s about the only thing I can think of besides having another elite corner. I guess we could just go out there with the intention of out scoring everybody too, since we do happen to have our super start qb.

The DVOA ranking disagrees with you here. The Bills had the number 1 defense in DVOA which accounts for how all other teams performed against like opponents. Additionally, Bills were number 1 in pass defense DVOA. Certainly the Bills defense can be better, particularly playing elite qb’s as you have alluded too. But making a point via exaggerating (4th string qb’s comment) the circumstances doesn’t do much to help your case. DVOA is one the best indicators of team performance because it compares how a team performed against another team in relation to how all other teams did against said team.

Cinci has a very nice wr room too. It’s hard to say if Miami has the best by far.

Don’t discount Sanders coming back still. I see him as a potential after the draft guy who is brought back. He said he will probably retire, but if he comes back it would only be with the Bills.

I also think it would be very rare for Beane to trade picks from next years draft. Like you said, a small trade up would certainly be in consideration (costing this years assets only). We may be making a Super Bowl push, but we are at a point where we will need guys on rookie contracts contributing. Every year we will need a one or more, and that’s easiest to do with early picks.

The only thing is, trading up for Gardner or Stingley likely costs us our second round pick. I’m skeptical of a first round trade up, I think the potential trade up scenarios is second and later. This draft doesn’t have a lot of very elite talent, but tons of good talent. The second/third rounds are looking to be very good rounds to have multiple picks in. Tre was pick 27 and he not only started week 1, he did a fantastic job. We can get quality players at the end of the first and still be, “all in”. For instance, this draft isn’t loaded with elite talent, and you don’t trade up, just to trade up. The Bills will have many plans of attack for this draft and based on how things fall, they will execute said plans. I’m sure they will have plans for taking a cb/wr/iol/other in the first and corresponding rounds after.

I really like both of those guys too. I also like Gordon, but sounds like he is being projected more early second, so maybe he is a little bit of a reach at 25.

Yeah no way Dane is a cb 1, at least not at this point of his career. It really does seem like cb is strong candidate for the first pick, but iol could be as well, that’s another position that we are really lacking in, but it all depends on who falls. Which cb do you like at 25?

In regards to Levi, I feel they want a different skill set at cb 2, someone who isn’t as limited physically. However, they don’t have to spend a first round pick to do that, that could come from any round potentially. Personally, I’m open to several options with the first pick, but mostly cb, wr, iol are the big three I’d like to see with the first and the remaining two early in the draft. We don’t/shouldn’t need a rookie cb to come in and start week 1, just someone who can be developed and offers more scheme wise than Levi did. Dane and Tre alone could be a perfectly good cb combo, it’s just we need to find a way to hold the fort down until Tre is back. What cb’s do you like at pick 25?

I wonder how much the Tre White injury impacts the FO decision making? If he was healthy, we wouldn’t even be considering cb in the first unless it was BPA. Even if the Bills want to go cb in the first, it will depend on how the board falls. There should be options for cb at 25, but will there be better options at other positions? Beane and the FO won’t lock into one position no matter what, it will depend on who is available. We will see a vet corner brought in before the draft. Between the vet, and Levi they should be serviceable until Tre gets back. So I don’t think the Bills will feel they they have to get a cb in round 1, instead they will set themselves up for BPA as Beane always says.

My guess is Johnson is being brought in to be the number 2 rb. Maybe the 3rd down back. Either way, he isn’t coming in as the starter, unless he has an amazing camp/pre season. He looked really good last year when he got playing time down the stretch. Certainly better than what we saw from Moss, and I think that’s the idea. Have insurance in case Moss doesn’t develop.

If cb and iol were the first two picks, wr in the third would be perfectly fine. There are good options at wr all over the draft, even later than the third. Alec Pierce would be a great outside wr depth. I think he is projected around end of 3rd or 4th round. I would be more than happy with him.

Who knows how the Bills have the cb’s graded, but there should be some fine options at cb when we pick at 25. I’m sure the Bills have several strategies and are willing to go multiple different directions based on who falls. It would be very interesting to see Williams available at 25 and what Beane does. We def need a vet corner, but overall we are set up nicely to take BPA at 25.

Trading up yes, but I don’t think he will trade into the upper first round. Beane is very hesitant to trade future years draft capital. Any trading up will be with this years draft capital only. We need constant churning of cheap contributors on cheap contracts, and trading higher picks in future years makes that much harder. If he can trade up for Sauce or Stingley trading asserts for this draft only, sure, but anything else is very unlikely. I’m positive they will pick up a vet who can at-least hold the fort down. Probably one of the older guys like Haden, Peterson, Rhodes, or others. Someone who can start on the outside at-least half the season.

I’m not trying to say the FO doesn’t value wr, it’s how much they value them is what I’m alluding too. For instance, Beane has made it abundantly clear (in action and statements) that he values (besides qb) the defensive and offensive lines. In other words, every FO has their own strategies and areas emphasis. So i was trying to express that it will be interesting to see how this draft is conducted. We should have a chance at a great wr in the first round, but the last wr heavy draft, the Bills Embed made it quite clear the Bills had G. Davis targeted as a pick well before the draft (note: we did trade a first for Diggs this draft though). We of course need stud players and wr’s, but a stud can come from any round in draft. I understand higher round players have better odds of being studs, but depth of a position group has to factor into the decision making process. If for instance, the Bills like many wr’s including guys projected until midway through the draft vs another position group that has less guys the Bills like does it make sense to take a potential stud wr vs a similarly graded potential stud at another position of need? It all comes down to several factors, evaluation of a player (ranking), depth of position in draft, team need at the position, team positional philosophy, personal traits/abilities. Like i mentioned before, I’d love a wr early in this draft, I just don’t know that it makes the most sense. The argument I’m making is in an attempt to look at/understand the bigger picture (without knowing the Bills FO inner workings) in regards to our team/draft. Having a young stud wr on our offense would be amazing, but that has to be balanced against many other factors. The Bills Super Bowl window is now, and this draft will be so fun/interesting to see which direction the Bills go. I personally wish Tre could play week 1, it would make wr or IOL the easy choice round 1 (in my opinion).

I did leave receiver out, but yes, it’s getting quite expensive for good to decent ones as you alluded too. I fully expect a wr or two in this draft. However, I feel like there are much more good options at wr versus the other positions and because of that alone, I feel their overall value (draft value) is slightly below the other positions I listed. There are so many wr’s all over this draft that seem like they could turn into something special, especially because we have Josh. It will be interesting to see what we do at wr this draft. Zay was our highest wr selected so far, and that was pre Beane. Since Beane, our highest is Davis in round 4. We did trade a first for Diggs so I suppose that can be counted. Either way, I’m curious if this FO values wr’s less than some of the other premium positions because of the relative wr depth.

I agree, however, it would be so surprising that he would be ready for the start of the season, and the draft is next month. I don’t think they will know one way or another by that time and they have to hedge their bets a bit. To be honest, how they approach cb during the draft will be a big indicator as to how they feel about Tre’s recovery. Because, a healthy Tre and Dane should be fine for outside cb. Although, a stud first round cb sound amazing to pair with Tre. Either way, I’m confident in the approach from our FO.

Of course it’s not a given, nothing is. However, I have faith in any corner this front office takes, especially one in the first round (even the end of the first). Even above average or solid corners aren’t cheap these days, so it’s still a considerable savings having a cb on a rookie contract even if they don’t reach elite level. It really comes down to the Bills FO evaluations, and ROI (return on investment). If two players are graded similarly, the one playing a position offering higher ROI is the one that is taken. When paying top dollar to a qb, we have to have impact players at impact positions on rookie contracts. That’s what will give us the best competitive advantage.

This is the best way to look at our IOL in relation to the draft and FA. Who do you prefer head to head? Dotson or Gordon?

Especially at premium positions. This is a big reason why it’s hard to take rb early. Having cb, de, ot, qb playing on rookie contracts is a huge savings

Your right, that’s true. The best rbs do tend to do atleast all right with not so good lines. An elite rb would be amazing next to Josh. However, now that we have to pay Josh, it’s important to get good ROI, and there is no better way to do that than having positions such as DE, OT, CB on rookie contracts. With all that being said, playmakers trump anything and I’m ok with the Bills taking anyone if they truly believe they will be a playmaker. So if that’s Hall and the Bills staff feels that way so be it, however a tie would have to go to the positions offering more ROI.

Agree. At this point I’m beginning to think IOL and CB as the first two picks depending on how the first falls. But these two areas are beginning to seem like the ones in need the most immediate upgrade to compete this year. Personally I really want a nice slot, but the wr pool is really stacked this draft, and we are more likely to get by with McKenzie and a vet (not signed yet) than the other two spots. Especially guard, there isn’t much out there if we don’t get Bates and/or Boetteger back.

If we don’t get Bates back, we are going to be drafted a guard higher than later. Too many seem to be devaluing guards in their mock drafts. It certainly depends on how the board falls, but I see CB, WR, and IOL bring the Bills top needs in the draft. I also don’t think we take a rb until later in the draft, it would be very hard to imagine a rb in the first 3 rounds.

I don’t see a first round rb offering more impact than a cb, iol, or wr especially when considering beyond just this season. The only way I see a first round rb is when the offensive line is fully established (ours isn’t), and the player is truly special. The value is just not there with a first round rb, and we need to be VERY conscious of getting impact players at a value. CB or WR offer the best value that early. A dynamic rb would be amazing in this offense, but at what cost is a rb like that worth it? At the cost of an elite shutdown corner on a cheap 5 year deal? No way for me. What about an elite slot wr? No way a rb is more valuable than that. We all agree the Bills can find cbs, so what would you expect from a first round cb? Probably something close to Tre White, and that would be some major ROI as far as cost is concerned. I just don’t see how the Bills take a rb in the first. Look at the moves they have made so far. They have a gaping hole at cb, with essentially 1 year stop gaps available, and they didn’t resign Levi for reasonable price. We Dane is a similar athlete as Levi. We also know that the way things are looking there should be 1-3 corners available at 25 who could fit the Bills. The signs seem to be strongly pointing towards a first round cb. I’m in agreement with not wanting another high round rb. My point with Moss, he may have more to offer in year 3. As a rookie he was the top rated pass blocker and the Bills do value that. Singletary came on strong in year 3 after struggling in year 2. My point with Moss was, it’s probably better to pick up a vet and/or late round rb and let them all compete at camp to see who the rb core will be for the season. Moss might surprise and his contract isn’t holding us back from taking another look.

I just don’t see the Bills taking a rb in the first round, we have much greater need at cb, iol, and slot wr (even depth outside wr). Singletary showed enough to be comfortable with him as the starter, the earliest I could possibly see us taking a rb is the second, and even that would be unlikely. Even though Moss didn’t look good last year, he is going into year 3, having two more cheap years left. It’s more likely the Bills pick up a vet option and/or a late round pick to come in and compete at training camp. We just have bigger needs, especially earlier in the draft.