Tanoros

What round is he projected to go in?

They are still a run first offense. That part didn’t change. Also, Jefferson put up more numbers as a rookie than Diggs did while there. I’m not in any way trying to bash Diggs, I’m just pointing out that stats are not solely a by product of a system. The system is a factor in stats, but not the sole reason for one’s stats. The fact remains, a rookie wr on a run first offense, put up more numbers than Diggs did on a run first offense. It’s not exactly comparing apples to oranges, more like tangerines to navels. Diggs on the Bills offense vs Diggs on the Vikings offense would be comparing apples to oranges.

Do you think the Bills will consider trading Diggs rather than extending him? It would be hard to pass up a bevy of picks like the Chiefs got and it will be hard to pay Diggs, Hill type of money. If we pay Diggs, I worry about keeping guys like Knox, Oliver, and possibly Davis (could throw Edmonds in that group too). We definitely won’t be able to keep everyone, and Edmonds seems like a good candidate to move on from, probably like Harrison Phillips. We offer Edmonds a reasonable contract, while letting him test the waters and it’s more than likely he’ll get more elsewhere. I really hope we can draft someone this year, who at worst, can be a stop gap next year.

Justin Jefferson has put up bigger numbers than Diggs did as a Viking. You are correct about stats being a byproduct of system. However, talent can also cause change/tweak a planned system. Either way, Allen showed elite traits and play making ability pre Diggs. So put two elite guys together and it’s no wonder they both go off.

This right here! This is the reason I had such high hopes for Allen after year 1, he made our offense competent. Remember how the offense was when Allen went out that year? I could hardly stomach watching the games, our offense was just garbage.

The throw to Robert Foster that game, might have been his best throw his first season. Stood in the pocket, taking a shot, yet delivering a strike on the run. Such a beautiful pass.

Exactly! This is how I felt. Against the Ravens week 1, Allen’s was in the end zone rolling to his right and delivered a rocket to Logan Thomas. That’s was the moment I knew he could be special, it was something I hadn’t seen from a Bills qb before (I was very little during the Kelly years and don’t remember much, but the end of those years).

The reason I knew Josh was the real deal his rookie year was the stark difference in the offense with him vs without him. Even before the injury, think about how the offense had some life and he made some plays from time to time. When he went out, we were on pace for the one of the worst offenses of all time, and the offense had no life at all it seemed. Josh was the sole reason our offense even had a chance. It’s amazing how those in the media have never picked up on this, but at the same time, it takes watching most, if not all of the games. About your comment of him getting better throughout the season, isn’t it amazing how he has done this every season? He’s better at the start of the season than where he left off, and by season end, he is better than where he started. It’s amazing, and I feel like he is still ascending after the playoffs last year.

After seeing Hills contract, this is what I’m stating to think too. I don’t think we can afford to pay Diggs 30 mil per season and we need leverage/insurance.

That will be the Dolphins game next year. Running and short passes. We will have to put up points, and get red zone stops (forcing fg attempts). Then the Dolphins/Tua have to play more aggressively and that will be to our advantage. Besides needing a corner even more now, I think this also shows we need to make sure Allen has plenty of weapons to put points up at will or close enough to it. Maybe we snag a wr at 25 to give Allen another playmaker?

Mike McDaniels took the job committing to Tua and this offseason they have made moves to give Tua plenty of support. It’s makes sense from their perspective, however it’s big time gambling on Tua. Even though this makes the Dolphins harder, I’m happy for this move, because it weakens the Chiefs considerably. Tyreek and Kelce are so hard to stop (as we saw multiple times now). Fortunately for us, Allen has the Dolphins number and their offense will be forced to play keep up with ours. That should force Tua into uncomfortable situations having to try and go deeper than check downs.

Agreed about not all times/starts being equal. But that is also what makes DVOA more accurate than yards/points leaders at the end of the year. The sample size for DVOA data is MUCH greater than things such as yards/points which are based off of 17 games only. DVOA is based off of many more games that 17. When comparing numbers, it’s more beneficial to have dats sets with more data than less, thus making DVOA a bit more accurate. I’m not trying to say the Bills defense is all world or anything close to that. But, what I am trying to point out, is our defense/pass defense was very good last year, much better than just playing against poor competition and thus having an overinflated ranking. Our last game of the season tends to skew everyone’s opinion of our defense, then the critics point to poor completion we played against. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. The Pats had the number 2 defense/pass defense and were destroyed by Allen, then our number 1 defense was destroyed by Mahomes the following week. It’s quite possible that these super star QB’s are elite defense proof to some degree when they are on. There are plenty of examples of the defense (ours or Pats against us) doing everything exactly they way they should have, and Allen/Mahomes still beating the defense for gains. You can’t stop that, and judging our defense based on super stars doing super star things isn’t given them the credit they are due. We have to look at large data sets and not a couple games/plays. Hopefully getting Von and improving our pass rush helps with slowing down the super star qb’s a bit. It’s about the only thing I can think of besides having another elite corner. I guess we could just go out there with the intention of out scoring everybody too, since we do happen to have our super start qb.

The DVOA ranking disagrees with you here. The Bills had the number 1 defense in DVOA which accounts for how all other teams performed against like opponents. Additionally, Bills were number 1 in pass defense DVOA. Certainly the Bills defense can be better, particularly playing elite qb’s as you have alluded too. But making a point via exaggerating (4th string qb’s comment) the circumstances doesn’t do much to help your case. DVOA is one the best indicators of team performance because it compares how a team performed against another team in relation to how all other teams did against said team.

Cinci has a very nice wr room too. It’s hard to say if Miami has the best by far.

Don’t discount Sanders coming back still. I see him as a potential after the draft guy who is brought back. He said he will probably retire, but if he comes back it would only be with the Bills.

I also think it would be very rare for Beane to trade picks from next years draft. Like you said, a small trade up would certainly be in consideration (costing this years assets only). We may be making a Super Bowl push, but we are at a point where we will need guys on rookie contracts contributing. Every year we will need a one or more, and that’s easiest to do with early picks.

The only thing is, trading up for Gardner or Stingley likely costs us our second round pick. I’m skeptical of a first round trade up, I think the potential trade up scenarios is second and later. This draft doesn’t have a lot of very elite talent, but tons of good talent. The second/third rounds are looking to be very good rounds to have multiple picks in. Tre was pick 27 and he not only started week 1, he did a fantastic job. We can get quality players at the end of the first and still be, “all in”. For instance, this draft isn’t loaded with elite talent, and you don’t trade up, just to trade up. The Bills will have many plans of attack for this draft and based on how things fall, they will execute said plans. I’m sure they will have plans for taking a cb/wr/iol/other in the first and corresponding rounds after.

I really like both of those guys too. I also like Gordon, but sounds like he is being projected more early second, so maybe he is a little bit of a reach at 25.

Yeah no way Dane is a cb 1, at least not at this point of his career. It really does seem like cb is strong candidate for the first pick, but iol could be as well, that’s another position that we are really lacking in, but it all depends on who falls. Which cb do you like at 25?

In regards to Levi, I feel they want a different skill set at cb 2, someone who isn’t as limited physically. However, they don’t have to spend a first round pick to do that, that could come from any round potentially. Personally, I’m open to several options with the first pick, but mostly cb, wr, iol are the big three I’d like to see with the first and the remaining two early in the draft. We don’t/shouldn’t need a rookie cb to come in and start week 1, just someone who can be developed and offers more scheme wise than Levi did. Dane and Tre alone could be a perfectly good cb combo, it’s just we need to find a way to hold the fort down until Tre is back. What cb’s do you like at pick 25?

I wonder how much the Tre White injury impacts the FO decision making? If he was healthy, we wouldn’t even be considering cb in the first unless it was BPA. Even if the Bills want to go cb in the first, it will depend on how the board falls. There should be options for cb at 25, but will there be better options at other positions? Beane and the FO won’t lock into one position no matter what, it will depend on who is available. We will see a vet corner brought in before the draft. Between the vet, and Levi they should be serviceable until Tre gets back. So I don’t think the Bills will feel they they have to get a cb in round 1, instead they will set themselves up for BPA as Beane always says.

My guess is Johnson is being brought in to be the number 2 rb. Maybe the 3rd down back. Either way, he isn’t coming in as the starter, unless he has an amazing camp/pre season. He looked really good last year when he got playing time down the stretch. Certainly better than what we saw from Moss, and I think that’s the idea. Have insurance in case Moss doesn’t develop.

If cb and iol were the first two picks, wr in the third would be perfectly fine. There are good options at wr all over the draft, even later than the third. Alec Pierce would be a great outside wr depth. I think he is projected around end of 3rd or 4th round. I would be more than happy with him.

Who knows how the Bills have the cb’s graded, but there should be some fine options at cb when we pick at 25. I’m sure the Bills have several strategies and are willing to go multiple different directions based on who falls. It would be very interesting to see Williams available at 25 and what Beane does. We def need a vet corner, but overall we are set up nicely to take BPA at 25.

Trading up yes, but I don’t think he will trade into the upper first round. Beane is very hesitant to trade future years draft capital. Any trading up will be with this years draft capital only. We need constant churning of cheap contributors on cheap contracts, and trading higher picks in future years makes that much harder. If he can trade up for Sauce or Stingley trading asserts for this draft only, sure, but anything else is very unlikely. I’m positive they will pick up a vet who can at-least hold the fort down. Probably one of the older guys like Haden, Peterson, Rhodes, or others. Someone who can start on the outside at-least half the season.