Tanoros

Most years in most divisions the difference between first place and second place is only a game or two, sometimes coming down to the final weekend of the regular season. What changes when the Patriots win the division is that they will face three games against teams that finished first in their own divisions. In theory those three opponents are stronger than the teams that a second place finisher would face. It is not the end of the world, but it also should not be ignored. This is exactly why the NFL designs schedules the way it does, to create more parity and to reward or challenge teams based on their previous year’s performance. This week’s game is going to be a great matchup and either team can win. But if we are being honest, if the Bills play a clean, mistake free game and if Josh Allen plays like he did against the Bengals, the Bills should win. That is why Vegas has the Bills favored even on the road in the Patriots stadium.

He seemed fine at the beginning of the season before he got hurt. Did you have these realizations before the injury? Since coming back from the injury he clearly isn’t 100%. He’s not running like he normally does, and his passing hasn’t been as good either, and I wonder if maybe teams know he won’t be running the same, and so can take away the pass that much more.

What are you even talking about here? Your position seems to shift every time the actual data comes up. You started by saying the Bills have a bad pass blocking O-line, and now we are sort of implying the offense is struggling because of the O-line? Is that really where you want to plant your flag? Because if we are sticking to facts, the things that do not move around mid argument, the Bills O-line ranked 5th in the NFL in pass block win rate last year, 2024. Fifth. That is the definition of elite relative to the rest of the league. So yes, the data is very clearly contradicting your narrative, whether you feel like the line was good or not. What you keep doing is conflating offensive results with offensive line performance, and that is honestly wild. The offense can dip for a hundred reasons, QB play, WR talent, play calling, injuries, defensive adjustments, and none of that automatically traces back to the O-line. Same players as last year does not magically mean same offensive production, and pretending it does is just lazy analysis. We also used way more 6 lineman sets last year, and Hawes reduces that need this season. That changes the entire structure of protection. So does TE usage, motion, and route concepts. If your argument depends on ignoring all of that nuance, that says a lot. Let’s talk about Joe Brady, since somehow that part keeps getting ignored. Take the Houston game, which seems like the source of your O-line trauma. Houston was teeing off on Allen while we stuck with five blockers and minimal TE help. No adjustments. No chips. No shifting to heavier protections like last year. That is not an O-line talent issue, that is a coaching and scheme decision. Pure stubbornness. And let’s not pretend WR personnel does not matter. Last year we traded for Amari. He did not light up the stat sheet, but defenses respected him. That alone changes spacing. This year we do not have that luxury. So yes, something is going on with the passing game, but the most logical place to look is Brady and the overall offensive design, not an O-line that continues to grade out extremely well. I am genuinely confused why that is so hard for you to acknowledge. Let me put it plainly: Do you honestly believe the passing game struggles have more to do with the O-line than Joe Brady? Lastly, your point about Josh’s scrambling lowering sack numbers is true, but that is true of every mobile QB. Yet even adjusting for that, the Bills allowed some of the lowest sack totals in the league last year. At some point, the credit goes where it belongs. But if you want to keep insisting the O-line is the problem while the actual evidence keeps screaming the opposite, go ahead. Just do not expect everyone else to abandon reality with you.

Has the O-line performed worse this year than last? Yes, it has. That’s not a revelation, it’s a reality across several areas of the offense. But even with regression from last year’s elite standards, the Bills’ O-line is still performing at a top-tier level relative to the rest of the NFL. That part hasn’t changed. I want to remind you why I originally responded: you said, “When the O-line is healthy they are bad at pass protection.” That was a bold claim, and it simply wasn’t supported by any available data. Since then you’ve shifted the goalposts to, “Well, the O-line isn’t as good as last year,” which is true, but irrelevant to your original statement. The discussion wasn’t about this year vs last year. It was about whether this line is “bad” at pass protection. The evidence says it isn’t. And if we’re talking about the passing offense struggling this season, the O-line is one of the last places to look. There are multiple, far more plausible reasons: • Joe Brady’s inconsistency • lack of top-end receivers • missing Kincaid and Palmer • Beane’s overall WR room construction • and yes, Allen himself at times It’s not a mystery the pass game hasn’t reached expectations. But reaching for the O-line, one of the clear strengths of the roster, as the culprit simply doesn’t make sense. If anything, the O-line (in both run blocking and pass protection), Cook, and Allen (to be clear, Allen has had his moments which is why I noted him above too) have been the stabilizing forces of the offense while everything around them has fluctuated. At this point, it’s fair to simply acknowledge that your original claim, that the O-line is bad at pass protection when healthy, was inaccurate. That’s why I responded in the first place: because it was an extreme statement that didn’t align with anything objective. Frustration with the broader offense is understandable, but attributing that frustration to the one unit that consistently grades near the top of the league is not. We can disagree on interpretations, but we can’t ignore what the data shows. And the data has not supported your position from the start.

Honestly, at this point I really have to applaud the consistency, not in your logic, but in your commitment to avoiding it. We’ve now gone from: “Number of sacks doesn’t mean anything about the O-line.” to “Allen has more sacks this year, so the O-line must be bad.” …all while completely sidestepping pass block win rate, which has now been brought up twice and somehow keeps getting ignored like it’s in witness protection. Just to remind you: PBWR specifically removes QB mobility, escape ability, scramble rate, extended plays, and all the things you keep trying to blame for last year’s excellent pass protection numbers. It measures only whether the lineman holds his block for 2.5 seconds. That’s it. None of the other noise factors in. But since PBWR is apparently off-limits in this conversation, let me add one more inconvenient piece of objective data you’ll probably pretend not to see. I’m linking a composite chart that averages three independent analytics sources, PFF, ESPN, and SIS. This isn’t one metric. It’s three combined. Guess where the Bills land? Top right quadrant. Which, in case the axes are tricky: • higher pass protection efficiency • better EPA per dropback • better overall performance Basically: “this O-line is good.” But I’m sure when you see it, we’ll get Installment #3 of the ongoing saga “Metrics Don’t Count Unless They Agree With Me.” Because we’ve already watched you redefine the meaning of sacks twice in the same thread, first they were meaningless, now they’re definitive proof, and the only consistent thing so far has been your determination to ignore anything measurable when it contradicts your conclusion. That’s not analysis. That’s stubborn narrative maintenance. Look, you’re absolutely entitled to your opinion. If you feel the O-line is bad, nobody can stop you. But pretending the data is on your side while actively avoiding the data? That’s a different conversation entirely. Anyway, take a look at the chart or enjoy selectively ignoring it.

I’m going to be very direct here, because you’ve drifted the conversation away from objective information. Pass block win rate has nothing to do with a quarterback’s mobility. The definition is clear: it measures whether the lineman sustains his block for 2.5 seconds. Josh Allen escaping a sack does not change that metric. So the ongoing argument that “Allen makes the O-line look better than it is” simply doesn’t apply to PBWR. In 2024, with the same five starters we have now, the Bills ranked among the best pass-blocking units in the league according to ESPN’s PBWR and SI’s grading. That isn’t opinion; that’s league-wide data. Regarding Hoecht, the point isn’t that 64 snaps guarantee elite production. It’s that those snaps showed real disruption, power, and motor, which are exactly the traits the Bills have lacked on the edge. When you combine that with Oliver’s hot start and Bosa’s talent, it’s reasonable to believe the defensive front would have improved. That’s a roster-based evaluation, not an emotional one. As for the claim that “the Rams defense got better without Hoecht,” that doesn’t really prove anything. Hoecht wasn’t a full-time starter there, and a defense improving or regressing year to year has far more to do with scheme changes, coaching shifts, draft picks, and overall depth than any single rotational defensive lineman. One player does not define a defense, especially one who wasn’t in a primary role. At this point, the difference between our perspectives is simple. I’m basing my view on data such as PBWR, and the actual construction of the defensive front. Your response is based on subjective impressions and assumptions. We can disagree, but it’s important to acknowledge which arguments come from measurable facts and which come from emotion. BTW: Take a look at this thread for info on the O-line this year:

I think it’s important to look at what the roster actually was supposed to be this season, especially in the trenches, rather than judging strictly by what it became after injuries. On the D-line: We only got 64 snaps of Hoecht, but those snaps made it very clear why Beane signed him. He was explosive, powerful, and disruptive, exactly the kind of presence we’ve been missing opposite Bosa. Adding a healthy Hoecht to Bosa and an Oliver who came out red-hot in Week 1 had the real potential to give us one of the strongest defensive fronts we’ve fielded in years. No, we can’t say for certain what the line would have looked like over a full season, but it’s absolutely fair to say losing Hoecht changed the makeup of the defense. His early play suggested he was going to be a major upgrade against the run and a boost to the pass rush. Pair that with Bosa’s talent and Oliver’s fast start, and Beane clearly had built this line to be a strength. If anything, the problem wasn’t the plan, it’s that injuries wiped out the plan before it had a chance to take shape. On the O-line: The idea that this offensive line is “bad at pass protection” doesn’t match the actual data. According to SI’s evaluation of the 2024 season, with the exact same five starters we brought into 2025, the Bills: • allowed just 14 sacks, the fewest in the NFL • ranked among the top pass-blocking units by several analytic measures • posted one of the league’s better pass-block win rates • and received strong individual protection grades across all five positions These aren’t subjective observations, they’re objective league-wide comparisons. Buffalo’s O-line wasn’t just “fine” in pass protection last year; it was one of the most efficient and consistent lines in the league. So while they are indeed stronger in run blocking, calling them “bad at pass protection” simply doesn’t align with reality. It’s an emotional reaction, not a fact-based one. Big picture: Both the O-line and D-line were areas where Beane made deliberate, well constructed moves this offseason and before building the O-line. The offensive line has performed at a legitimately high level with these same five starters, and the defensive line had the pieces to be a true strength before injuries derailed it, especially with Hoecht flashing so much in his brief window.

I appreciate the detail you put into this, and honestly, I agree with several of the broader concerns, especially around the direction of Beane’s roster-building in recent years. But I think a few key areas need more context. Rousseau, for example, gets criticized heavily for sack totals, but he is one of the best run defenders and edge setters in the league. That’s not a small thing. He plays a different role than a pure pass rusher like Jaelan Phillips. And Phillips, for all of his talent, has a long injury history, which you also point out as a negative for other players. It’s tough to have it both ways. Rousseau may not be elite at one thing, but he provides consistent, high-volume, high-floor defensive play that fits how this defense operates. But yes, we do need an elite pass rusher and Beane has tried his Von, who looked good until he was injured, and again with Bosa who has looked great. As for the receiver contracts, I completely agree with you on overpaying free agent WRs. That’s exactly why teams with sustained success focus on drafting and developing receivers. If you lose them later, you get compensatory picks. If they hit, you get cheap production. This is probably one of the biggest areas where Beane drifted off course: too much emphasis on the defensive line and not enough investment in young receiver talent. Where I’d push back a bit is on the “dead weight” comment. Most of those players, Lawson, Jackson, Broeker, Spector, and others, are inexpensive depth pieces who know the system and can fill emergency roles when injuries hit. Every good team does this. It’s not poor roster building; it’s practical roster management. And in many cases, those signings actually help. Poyer this year is a clear example. I also fully agree with you about hiring from outside the organization. Promoting Brady and Babich made sense at the time, but the Bills are at the point where bringing in top external coaching talent should be a priority. This staff could benefit from fresh voices and new ideas, especially on offense. Regarding Frazier, though, none of us really know what happened. A lot of theories get repeated as if they’re fact, but unless someone was in the building, it’s all speculation. The same goes for the 13 seconds situation and whether McDermott overruled anything. Without details, it’s tough to draw clear conclusions. On injuries, I’m not sure it’s a training staff issue. The team has just been hit extremely hard the past few years with freak injuries, Achilles tears, pec tears, fractures, and so on. Losing Hoecht and Oliver alone dramatically changes the defense. Add in Milano, Phillips, Benford, and others, and it becomes clear that some of this is simply bad luck. Overall, I do agree with your main point: the early part of Beane’s tenure was strong, and the recent years have been more uneven. But I think the picture is more nuanced. There have been misses, but also strengths, and some issues (like injuries and scheme-specific roles) get placed solely on him even when they’re not entirely within his control. In my view, Beane built a high-floor team that consistently competes, but the roster has plateaued in part because he hasn’t hit enough home runs at premium positions like WR and EDGE in recent drafts. That, more than anything, is where the criticism is fair. I genuinely respect the thought you put into your post. I just think the truth sits somewhere between “Beane is elite” and “Beane should be fired,” and the real conversation is about recalibrating the approach going forward, not erasing what has worked.

The reality is that even the best coaching staffs and front offices go through down years. That alone isn’t a reason to move on. And sure, no one is saying Beane and McDermott are on the level of Reid and Veach, but the truth is, almost no HC and GM pair in the league are. What we do have is a team that stays in the conversation every single year and consistently gets close. That’s not something to overlook. The Bills have been right on the doorstep multiple times, and being that competitive for this long is incredibly rare in the NFL. It’s easy to take that for granted, but we shouldn’t. If we decide to make a change at GM and coach, the odds are far greater that we take a step backward than instantly improve. That doesn’t mean change is never justified, but it does mean we have to be honest about what the risk truly looks like. There isn’t a ton of room for improvement at the top, this team is already operating at a very high level, even with flaws. Assuming that a new GM and coach would automatically elevate us isn’t rooted in reality. It’s just not how the NFL works.

I’m not opposed to change if it truly makes us better, but I think we have to acknowledge that moving on from Beane and McDermott comes with a real risk, not of staying the same, but of getting worse. We talk about “wasting Allen’s years” now, but imagine falling back into being an 8 or 9 win team, or worse. That’s not some far-fetched scenario. That’s the most common outcome when teams start over. The reality is that with Beane and McDermott, we do have a legitimate shot to win it all every single year. Last year’s playoff loss to KC is a perfect example, it was a game of inches, and the officiating took more than a few of those inches away from us. That doesn’t mean the team was perfect, but it shows how thin the margin is when you’re consistently in the fight. Here’s how I look at it: If you knew with certainty that Beane and McDermott would win at least one Super Bowl with Josh Allen, would you be willing to be patient? Because we already know, without question, that they field a team every year that can compete with anyone. And no, it’s not only because of Allen. He’s incredible, but there’s a lot more that goes into sustained competitiveness than just having a great quarterback. If we decide to move on from this regime, the range of outcomes becomes much wider. Sure, we could luck into a duo that instantly elevates us. But there’s also a very real chance we stumble backward. There are far more franchises stuck in that cycle than there are consistently contending. As for me, I’m honestly still figuring out where I stand. I’ll always want the Bills to win a Super Bowl, especially with Allen. But at the end of the day, football is entertainment. I’m not going to let it ruin my day, week, or year. I simply don’t have the time or energy for that. What I do know is that since Beane and McDermott arrived, I’ve been thoroughly entertained. I appreciate having a team that’s competitive every week and always in the conversation. I’m content to see how it plays out while rooting for the best possible outcome.

One thing you may not be considering when you say ball control offense. Most of our injuries have occurred on defense, and the very nature of a ball control offense is to keep the defense off of the feild, which would mean less injuries, not more. A quick strike offense or just plain bad offense is what will put the defense on the field more. It was recently that we had some pretty good injury luck during the regular season. We all know that hasn’t been the case in the post season. But it’s only these last couple of years where things have been so rough during the regular season. I remember a time when people on this board were touting our awesome training facility as a reason we had less injuries. When it comes to injuries, I’m sure it’s a combo of many factors, and luck is certainly one of those factors.

I’m not saying not surviving, more what could have been. He looked amazing.

I hear you on a lot of this, and honestly I agree that Beane could have done a better job in a few key areas. Early in Allen’s career, the whole conversation was about protecting him and building a real run game, and Beane absolutely did that. The O line is the best it’s been in decades and the run game is actually a strength now. But I also think that came at the cost of the WR room. While we were investing heavily in the trenches and the defense, especially the D line, and O-line, the receiver group slowly fell behind. And you’re right: the D line drafting hasn’t been good enough for the amount of capital that went into it. Where I think we differ is how much that overshadows the rest. Because even with the roster flaws, this team is still competitive every single week. We can beat anyone in the league this season, and we’ve done that for years, that’s not something I’m willing to dismiss. And this year especially, the injuries on defense have been brutal. Losing guys like Oliver and Hoecht completely changes what the defense looks like. With both of them healthy, the front seven would look drastically different. Some of this season really has been bad luck, not just bad building. So yeah, the roster could absolutely be better. Beane has real misses that deserve criticism. But I can recognize that and still appreciate that we field a team every year that’s capable of making a run. That’s all I was trying to get across, we can want better without acting like everything is broken.

You didn’t say any of that in the post I responded to. Maybe you said it somewhere else, but it definitely wasn’t in the rant I quoted. I replied directly to that post, the one where you called Beane a clown, trashed half the roster, and acted like the last eight years never happened. If you want credit for giving out A plus grades, you might want to include those in the post you’re defending. Because what you wrote was the exact opposite, you said we only compete because of Allen, full stop, and everything else is “in spite of Beane.” That’s what I was responding to. And honestly, if you lived through the 17 year drought and still talk like this team has given you nothing but misery, that’s wild. If you didn’t live through the drought, that at least explains the lack of perspective. We can criticize Beane without pretending the Bills have suddenly turned into the 2008 Detroit Lions. There’s a huge difference between wanting better and acting like the last eight years never existed.

Reading your post, I had to double-check that I wasn’t somehow teleported back to the drought era, or maybe into a Raiders fan forum by accident. Because apparently being a top contender for the better part of a decade is now some kind of tragic disaster. Yeah, Beane is such a “clown” that the Bills have been one of the winningest teams in the league since he got here. Total embarrassment. How dare he. And of course, none of that matters because you’ve decided every draft pick is a bust, every contract is terrible, and every injury is his personal fault. I’m surprised you didn’t blame him for the weather too. Look, has Beane made mistakes? Obviously. Every GM does. If he’d pulled the trigger on a true WR1 for Allen recently, things might look a lot different right now. But let’s at least pretend to be fair, the guy brought back Cook on a great deal when half the fanbase was ready to ship him out. That didn’t magically happen on its own. What did magically happen, though, is that some Bills fans have forgotten what actual misery looks like. You know, the drought. The seventeen straight years of irrelevance. When “competing” wasn’t even in the vocabulary. Now we expect to make a deep run every single year, and that somehow equals “Beane is a joke.” Sure. Right. We all want a Super Bowl. But there’s a massive difference between wanting to improve and acting like we’re a bottom feeder. If you honestly think this franchise is some catastrophe under Beane, you might be confusing “legitimate issues” with “I’m frustrated so everything is terrible.”

It doesn’t look like anything egregious at all. Plus, Allen hasn’t shown over the years that he is dirty. He will play hard and go all out, but he isn’t dirty.

Perhaps you are right. But this is the play when all of the raucous started. Weird, because Heyward wasn’t acting out before this play.

No one was specifically talking about him playing today. He was drafted to be their future, they let Darnold walk, and JJ hasn’t looked good at all. This thread is about Justin Jefferson and posters are discussing him possibly wanting out because JJ doesn’t look good. The conversations has nothing to do with today’s game, besides Jefferson’s lack of comment after today’s game being the spark for this conversation. You’ve really missed the mark if you think all of this conversation is about one game with a backup qb.

You have to also add in the 3rd we gave up for Amari Cooper last year (3 points), and it was pre Bean, but it impacted Beane’s first draft and that’s the 3rd we gave up for Benjamin (3 points). Overall since 2018 we’d have the equivalent of 19 points towards receiver. Which is much closer to the average than 5. That’s not even factoring in all the other picks we gave up for Cooper, Diggs, Benjamin, which meant we had less resources for other positions, which in turn could impact future drafts. Overall, I think everyone agrees Beane should have emphasized receiver much more than he has. I’ve wanted a top receiver for quite some time, hoping that we would trade up for one. Every GM and team is going to have their own strategies and for whatever reason Beane has not valued drafting receivers high, which is so frustrating.

I know, I couldn’t believe they waited so long to pull him. Those are the tough decisions coaches need to make. You can’t expect players like Brown to pull themselves. He is the type that will go until he physically can’t or is pulled. I was stunned they left him in so long.

I think Bills fans can recognize that Brandon Beane drafts above league average overall while still having legitimate concerns about how he has handled the wide receiver position. Those two things don’t conflict. The main issue is that in a historically deep WR draft class, the Bills only took one swing with Keon Coleman. And now, with Coleman a healthy scratch and questions about his work ethic popping up, that decision looks even riskier. This was the exact kind of class where you either double dip or move up for premium, blue chip talent to support a franchise quarterback in his prime. To be fair, Beane did sign Curtis Samuel, and that deserves acknowledgment. But Samuel has yet to become a consistent focal point in the offense, and relying on one veteran plus a single rookie from a loaded class still left the WR room without the kind of depth and long-term investment this team needed. The frustration many fans have isn’t about Beane’s overall ability as a GM. It’s that wide receiver has been a recurring blind spot during an era where the Bills needed to be proactive, not reactive. Losing both Diggs and Davis in the same offseason should have been the moment to flood the position with young talent, especially given the board. Beane drafts well overall, but the criticism around wide receiver prioritization is completely valid. You can be a successful GM and still mismanage a key position group. And with Josh Allen at the center of everything this team does, wide receiver is not the place to take minimal swings.

I think the main thing missing from this conversation is a realistic understanding of how the draft actually works league wide. The way you are framing it makes it sound like because good players exist in rounds 2 and later, a GM should be able to consistently find them, as if landing strong mid round starters is some kind of yearly expectation. But the league wide numbers do not support that idea at all. The truth is that far more drafted players fail to become meaningful contributors than succeed, even in Round 2. That is not a Beane issue, that is the nature of the NFL draft itself. Treating every non hit as a GM failure ignores how volatile the draft is and how rare consistent mid round success really is. When you look at Beane in that context, his performance is objectively above average. His draft classes have produced an Approximate Value of about 428 compared to an expected value of roughly 362.5. That is around 118 percent of expected value, which means he is getting more real on field production out of his picks than the average NFL GM over the same span. It is also fair to say he has not hit a true home run since Josh Allen. That is a valid criticism and it is something fans understandably want more of. But franchise level players are extremely rare and almost always found in Round 1. Cook might end up being a home run from Round 2, but we still need more time to see how he develops. The larger point is that consistently landing good or solid starters at all is a genuine success. Acting like every GM should routinely find Kelce and Chris Jones level players in rounds 2 or 3 is just not grounded in how the draft actually works. Even great drafting teams miss constantly, including the Chiefs. On AJ Epenesa specifically, he is actually a good example of why expectations need to be realistic. A second round pick who has stayed in the league for five seasons, carved out a real rotational and part time starter role, and continues to contribute is already outperforming the league norm. The average NFL career is about 3.3 years, and many day two picks flame out after two or three seasons and never become starters at all. Epenesa lasting this long and playing real snaps makes him a plus outcome relative to what most teams get from that draft slot. The idea that Beane stands out as a GM who has not produced results also does not match reality. The Bills have won the division four straight years, made multiple deep playoff runs, and maintained one of the league’s most consistently competitive rosters, all while drafting above league expectation in cumulative value. So yes, Beane is not perfect, and he has not hit another Allen level home run. But his draft record is above average, his picks have exceeded league expectation, and expecting any GM to consistently uncover stars outside Round 1 is simply not realistic. Good and plus starters are wins, and Beane has produced those at a rate better than the league baseline. https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-brandon-beane-nfl-draft-success-rate/ https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/approximate_value.htm

Cover1 has Bills players on their some of their shows sometimes, meaning they have access to the Bills organization. Because of that, it’s not surprising they could get this kind of info.

I don’t think Christian Watson falls into this category. He really hasn’t done a lot, mostly because of injuries, and GB has drafted a lot of WR’s, and now they have a new first round rookie. I could see them getting something for Watson, because I don’t think they resign him.

Those are some good ideas that could be realistic. Watson has his injury issues, but I’m sure he could be picked up for a reasonable price. It feels like we need to make a move, especially at WR, or else we need to shift our play calling as many have suggested. As it is, Cook is our second best offensive player, and he needs to be used like that. I still haven’t gotten over the fact that we took him off of the field on 3rd and 1 and ran the end around sweep to a wr. If they wanted to be tricky, a play action to Cook would have done the job, everyone would be thinking it would be a run to Cook, and that itself wouldn’t have been a bad call either. Anyway, thanks for coming up with some different suggestions. I’m all for either.