Beck Water

I don't disagree with this assessment. What I ponder is: what exactly were the Bills supposed to do about it, given where they started the offseason? As you point out, even with some resources expended on lower-tier FA signings, a late 2nd round and a late 3rd round draft pick, it's possible our D won't be as good this season. So were we supposed to use no resources on it, 100% on offense, and have the D just totally blow? That's not likely a recipe for playoffs or playoff success either. More, we all know even a top of the 1st round pick has only about a 40-50% hit rate. So if we mortgage the rest of this year's draft class and next year's to get there, what alternatives does that leave us? That's really what I want to hear from people on Team Unacceptable WR Room: what would be their plan to fix it?

Happy, I Get It. You're Super Extra Salty right now at what the Bills have done. I'm not happy myself, but I do think some perspective is needed. You're letting it warp your assessments here. I'm not saying remember Shorter or count on Shorter, but Zierlein had him as a 5th round WR, whom we drafted with Pick 15 in the 5th round. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/justin-shorter/32005348-4f65-1252-2fb4-216da3af656d. To me, he's a guy who was the top WR prospect in the country coming out of HS and with 2 different programs, couldn't quite make it work at the collegiate level. AND, he's struggled with hammy injuries, same as what put him on IR all last season. I think the Bills believe Coleman is their #2, and their #1 is a combo of Shakir and Samuel - don't forget they did make that addition. Whether that's tenable or not, Time Will Tell. I do think that the Bills were looking at the guys they have as developing WR when they were getting into the 5th round of this year's draft, and said "no one we like better than the guys stashed at home". That's not saying the guys we had stashed have a very good chance of contributing, but the same is true of a WR drafted this year in the 5th round or later.

Receipts: what was your take on Josh Allen, Matt Milano, and Terrel Bernard?

We did give him guaranteed money, but it's not such a large amount we couldn't move on without flinching (by NFL standards) - $1.5M or so

List I gave is only guys who signed to the 53 and were active 1 or more games

Oh, wow, I disagree - After cutting Morse and moving McGovern to center and backup David Edwards to G, I thought we were thin on IOL And then of course there was Ryan Van Demark as the swing tackle The draftees were late rounders, so I guess the UDFA feel they can compete? I think 11 or so I assume you mean guys who came to the Bills as rookies and signed to the active roster here, not UDFA that developed elsewhere like Mario Williams or Kumerow From 2019 to 2023: Ryan Bates (he initially signed to Steelers but came here as a rook) Reggie Gilliam Quintin Morris Ryan Van Demark Antonio Williams CJ Brewer Tyrel Dodson Prince Emili Ja'Marcus Ingram Kingsley Jonathan Cam Lewis Fundamentally looks like 2 per year or so Mostly sign to practice squad and get elevated fora few games their 1st year Edit: Dang, I missed Alec Anderson, who was on the 53 but never active in a game. That means I probably missed a couple more

Been here far longer than you, yung'un - at least under your current screen name. You were saying "nobody thinks they know more than an actual NFL front office. " My point was, on this message board (which is one of the better around the league as far as I've found) - sure they do.

No, it's not the same thing, but I think a person could make a legit case that McCaffery is the player on the 49ers that is most responsible for keeping opposing DCs awake late. > 2000 Yds from scrimmage in a single season will do that. 2nd place would probably be Deebo Samuel.

I'm not sure the Ravens are a good example. They're one of three NFL teams (two very successful) who have more rush attempts than pass attempts. In fact, the Ravens were #30 in the league for passing attempts. The other two are the SF49'ers (#32 for passing attempts) and the Bears were #27. So a team can be successful in the NFL that way, obviously, but can they be a successful, high powered passing offense that way? The 49'ers legitimately were - #4 for passing yards despite #32 for passing attempts. The Ravens, not so much - bottom 3rd of the league. The 49ers do spread it around pretty well, but I would argue that Aiyuk with 105 targets is their #1. Still they had 4 guys with >80 targets, so maybe they kind of make your case - I think defenses are far more scared of Christian McCaffery than they are of Aiyuk. I would still argue on the Ravens, low-powered as their passing offense was, Zay Flowers was the #1. He had 40% more targets and more than twice the receptions of anyone else.

Let's just say that there appears to be no functional difference between some of the stuff people have posted in the last 4 days, and the posts someone who thought they know more than an actual NFL front office might make.

Well, now. I can't say as I've gone and counted them all, but I have a pretty damned healthy ignore list nowadays - and I've still been overwhelmed by the amount of unreasonable, name-calling, insult-slinging, frothing at the mouth disparaging posts. There are some negative posts that are IMO reasonable critiques and fair points well made. I wouldn't give them a majority, much less an overwhelming one, but as I admit, I haven't actually gone and counted them all. There are actually some guys here who take their mock drafts incredibly seriously. They watch every game they can get their hands on, take notes, make grades, compare grades, go back and review. So they definitely put a lot more effort into it than looking at mocks and watching some Youtube highlights. I'm impressed, year after year. They still don't have access to a fraction of the game information the scouts do - the gps data, the coaches film, etc etc.

LOL. A few years back I wanted to know what the hit rate of various sportwriters actually was I couldn't find most of their grades or mocks online. They not only lack the professional accountability that professional scouts have - they actively hide their work from people who might want to check them 3 or 5 years down the road. Anyway, the foaming at the mouth, gnashing of teeth, and beating of breasts about WR this draft does in fact remind me of the foaming at the mouth which occurred after Josh was drafted, and really didn't let up for about 3 1/2 years (mid-season 2020)

Good find. Hopefully the Bills WR room will work overtime to help him improve But, the bottom line I take from this is that drafting him did NOT add the vertical threat we've been lacking

C'mon Man. 2020: traded 1st round pick for proven successful NFL WR 2021: no offensive skill players 2022: 2nd round RB who has had 2254 combined scrimmage yds in 2 seasons 2023: 1st round TE who pulled in 73 receptions his rookie season 2024: 2nd round WR said to excel at contested catches, an ability we haven't had That's not consistent with the picture you paint of "big sluggish late round fliers, street FA and UDFA"

Well, kind of. You need receivers who can force the defense to defend the entire field horizontally and vertically. Practically speaking, that means you need a QB who can scare the defense knowing that he can put the ball anywhere on the field, and he needs a receiver who can get downfield before the pass protection breaks down so that if the defense fails to account for him or lets him blow by them, they'll pay. But in a modern NFL defense, that receiver doesn't necessarily have to be the guy who gets the most targets. In my opinion, Yes, but you need that guy who releases well enough and is fast enough to get downfield and make the opposing DC say "shiver me timbers!"

I disagree with the first, but the analogy is perfect. Back on the BA days of this board (Before Allen), we would see it all the time that people who had different ideas of what a franchise QB was, would argue vehemently about which QB were or weren't and who could be for us, without troubling to have it defined for them. A lot of those arguments could have been cut short by just....SAYING WHAT WAS MEANT Moral of the story: Don't assume someone knows what a Franchise QB or a #1 Receiver is without having it defined for them, explain what you mean by it.

Good post. People 100% use the phrase "#1 receiver" in different ways, meaning different things, and it leads to people talking at cross purposes. The conventional meaning of "#1 receiver" is the guy who commands the lion's share of the targets. He does this by being fast enough to threaten downfield; having the release moves/size/strength to get off the line against press man and not get shoved off his routes by physical DB play; being athletic enough to come down with contested catches; being able to run all the routes. Lately, where modern offenses spread the ball all over the field, exercise RPOs, and make use of choice routes, "#1 receiver" sometimes gets used synonymously with "X" or "Boundary" receiver, the guy who stretches the field vertically and loosens things up for the intermediate routes across the middle. Sometimes people use "#1 receiver" to mean guy who gets the most targets, whether or not he threatens downfield. By that definition, Kelce has been KC's #1 receiver since they traded Tyreek Hill in the 2022 off season - but even before that, Tyreek kind of made his living 5-10 yds from the LOS and turned them into 17 yd gains with YAC, so he got the #1 share of the targets but wasn't that prototypical boundary/field stretcher guy. Think I covered it and if people disagree I feel total certainty they will Let Me Know

To be fair, we weren't exactly hoping that Sherfield and Harty were more than they ever had been. At least, I would have been happy if Sherfield could have repeated his 30 catch, 417 yd performance from 2022 with Miami, and if Harty had repeated his 30 catch, 570 yd performance from his previous healthy season in 2021. But these are small points. Overall, the bottom line is I was hoping we could bring our WR talent back to 2022 levels and instead it's looking 2019-like, which was Not Good Enough.

No, I don't think we did enough As for whether we're finished....I didn't think we did enough at MLB last season. As it turned out, it was the best of times (Beane was correct that the answer was on our roster, and Terrel Bernard really stepped up) and it was the worst of times (once we lost Milano and schemed up a thing where Dodson and Poyer platooned, we had no legit backup for Bernard) I think the best case scenario is that we're in a similar situation - the best of times would be that Coleman proves capable of starting and contributing on at least a Gabe Davis level, and that Samuel and Shakir take turns platooning at the other outside WR position while we run a lot of 1,1 and 1,2 sets where we only have 2 WR on the field anyway. The worst case scenario though, is what's our plan if one of those guys gets hurt.

Would you mind providing a linky to that, because it's nothing at all that I heard Beane say

Just a few days. I believe the comp pick deadline is 4 pm May 1 As far as what Chark would cost, I imagine that's why he's still on the market. in 2022, he signed 1 year, $10M with Detroit. They can't say they got their money's worth with 11 games, 53 targets, 502 yds. Then he signed 1 year, $5M with Carolina. 66 targets for 525 yds not much better value for that. My guess is that Chark wants something similar, which is why teams are holding back.

I don't think that's the plan, but for goodness sake, step back off the bridge. I'm growing concerned for your health and safety. The season starts in September, not tomorrow Yeah, in hindsight, Beane should have kept it zipped It was bad PR to mention a raggle tag long shot the day of general fan disappointment about the Bills draft selections. Mea Culpa as well, that was my vision...but with 20/20 hindsight I should have realized they aren't gonna sign anyone who might interfere with the comp picks until after May 1 or maybe after June 1 when we get Tre's money

I'm impressed. I had to look that one up. Just to be clear, two different convos got quoted in the post you're replying to. The 4.62 40 yd is regarding Quintez Cephus, though apparently his pro day was faster The exhortation about catching and holding on to the Duke was regarding Cook, who was a top RB in yards last season but who needs to develop his hands to be a top receiving threat

Well, we're gonna have to agree to disagree on this one. I think Beane prioritizes what the coach wants much more than you believe.

A good GM will try to acquire players the OC identifies as necessary to execute his vision of the offense. After 4 years of relative consistency under Daboll, the Bills have now had 3 OCs in as many years. Why would one expect consistency from changing OCs with different visions as to what our offense should look like? Dorsey's vision of the offense appeared to involve small shifty guys (McKenzie, Hines, Harty, even Shakir). So far, it looks like Joe Brady's vision of the offense involves more power and less finesse. Week 1 thru 10 with Dorsey as OC the Bills were a heavily pass-favored team, and it wasn't always working - whether because of the receivers, or because of Josh Allen's sprained throwing shoulder, I don't know. 58% pass, 42% run. Week 11 thru 18 with Brady as OC, the Bills were a run-favored team, 48% pass, 52% run Whether that was driven by the personnel at hand, or reflects what Brady really wants to do with a free hand, I don't know - but I would say that moving on from Mitch Morse to Connor McGovern and drafting Coleman would argue that Brady wants the offense to look different.