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Everything posted by Chaos
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Super Bowl Winning Formula This formula aims to quantify the factors contributing to Super Bowl success by assigning scores to three key areas: Coaching: Assessment based on past season ending results with heaviest weight on most recent results. Quarterback: Assesses the quarterback's overall talent and results. Everything Else: Encompasses the collective strength of the roster (excluding the QB), including factors like offensive and defensive line play, skill position talent, special teams, and overall team depth. It also includes playoff factors like bye weeks and homefield advantage. Scoring System Each area receives a score on a scale of 0-40, with higher scores indicating greater strength. A Super Bowl-winning caliber team would score around 100 in total. The 1989 Niners would be closest to 120 in the Super Bowl era The average team scores around 50 (16 for coach, 16 for QB, 17 for everything else). 2024 Jets score 35 (0 for coach, 16 for QB, 19 for everything else. (Included just for fun) 2023 Kansas City Chiefs (Super Bowl Champions) Andy Reid (Coach): 33 Patrick Mahomes (QB): 39 Everything Else: 28 Total: 100 2024 Remaining Playoff Team Analysis Here's how the remaining contenders stack up based on this formula: Coaching Tier Notes Top Tier: I consider Andy Reid and Sean McVay the top two coaches in the NFL due to their recent Super Bowl visit and consistent success. McVay has done this with two different QBs, neither of whom is best of the best Second Tier: Coaches like John Harbaugh, Sean McDermott, Nick Sirianni, and Dan Campbell all have similar results overall and I have clustered their scores closely together. Third Tier: DeMeco Ryans is slightly lower due to inexperience, but early results suggest he could be on par with the second tier. Below Average: Based on lack of past success i rank Dan Quinn below the rest but still above average overall Past is not always prologue. Josh's playoff career is stellar. The hope is that he plays at his past level. Its not reasonable to expect more. The Bills coaching and the rest of the team will have to be better to vanquish the Ravens and Chiefs. Mahomes is on a down year. If we see peak Mahomes in the playoffs the Chiefs are pretty big favorites. If we see 2024 standard Mahomes, the Chiefs are beatable.
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Each year the NFL does a definitive evaluation of the combined draft selection, free agent signing, trades, and coaching staff building capabilities of the GMs. Hopefully this year Beane is #1 in the combined total.
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Texans are the fourth seed. There is no system where 1 does not play 4 and two does not play 3 when the top four all make it to the semi-finals. The absurity is the sole bye.
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Your 2025 Democrat Party - the New Red Guard
Chaos replied to Big Blitz's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Some times it disturbs me that the Dilbert guy is smarter than almost all of our political leaders. -
NFL HC's That Have Won Super Bowls & Their Tenure With Those Teams .
Chaos replied to T master's topic in The Stadium Wall
I don't know if "waiting to pounce" is really accurate. A lot of people have been quite vocal, that if the Bills can't advance past the divisional round again this year, they will want to see a coaching change. -
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NFL HC's That Have Won Super Bowls & Their Tenure With Those Teams .
Chaos replied to T master's topic in The Stadium Wall
The last head coach / QB combo to be on a team as long as McDermott/Allen before winning a super bowl, was Madden/Stabler in the 70's. -
Random talking head says something about the Bills
Chaos replied to Simon's topic in The Stadium Wall
players will never see it on the bulletin board. its just a blip merged in with thousands of other blips on the gigantic bulletin board. -
Rostered player with the most drought years
Chaos replied to ProcessTruster's topic in The Stadium Wall
On the verge? -
Wayne Gretsky to be first Govenor of Canada?
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
12 liberal Canadian senators while you eliminate several conservative senators. Your off your game. -
Wayne Gretsky to be first Govenor of Canada?
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Quebec can be left out. But we don't need six new states from Canada. -
After Hollins pushes Surtain's head.
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Why not the Praetorian Guard?
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RIP, 39th President Jimmy Carter. Great American.
Chaos replied to Walking Tall's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Laws? -
Wayne Gretsky to be first Govenor of Canada?
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Just one state -
the Daboll/Schoen regime - on the brink, it seems
Chaos replied to dave mcbride's topic in The Stadium Wall
You posted a post that suggests causation for QBs making head coaches. Then reject the exact same process applied to the same data, for coaches making QBs. your process is a good process or it is flawed. But you can't have it both ways. You don't really seem to grasp the impact of coaching. The Jets were 5-12. If a different coach had led them to a 9-8 record, that would be far better coaching. But it would be a mediocre record. And by your logic, a mediocre coaching job. Coaches can only optimize what they have. -
This Bills Team Version is much better than 13 seconds!!
Chaos replied to BillsBlue's topic in The Stadium Wall
You called him “turnover guy” -
This Bills Team Version is much better than 13 seconds!!
Chaos replied to BillsBlue's topic in The Stadium Wall
Do you realize that before yesterday Josh Allen had the best post-season TDs to Int ratio in NFL history? -
No, enjoying a HOF game without a Super Bowl appearance. A bit different than Kelly.
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Beating each other up to clear the way for the chefs
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Cook is a really good player. If I was 12 years old, I would be upset if the Bills let him walk. But despite the impact Saquan Barkely and Derrick Henry have had on their teams, its not clear either of them are ending up Super Bowl champs. If the Bills win the Super Bowl this year, I happily run back every player on the team including Cook for next year. Otherwise, it is simply a question of what trade offs I need to make to keep Cook vs. some other players.