FireChans

Meh. he got a contract that I suspect is full of a ton of incetives. He was dumped by the team that signed him for a 7th round pick swap. The reality is that Tre is a depth guy now. I think he knows that. Certainly he played his best ball in Buffalo. He's part insurance part "maybe he regains some form". Nothing more. This doesn't impact the draft at all imo.

If we draft an early CB that can't beat out Tre White's ghost, then it was a wasted pick anyway.

Everyone drafts busts or disappointments though. If Beane and his team couldn't evaluate talent, I don't think we would have as many quality day 2-3 picks. That's why I disagree with @GunnerBill and @HappyDays. I think Beane's problem is that in round 1-2, his eyes go wide and he presses for needs. As the draft develops, he sticks more to his evaluations independent of needs and generally does better (compared to the rest of the league). To me, it makes no sense that Beane can somehow identify the large number of late round contributors he finds, but fails to apply that ability in rounds 1-2 UNLESS there's another factor driving his decision-making.

The really story of that graph is how far to the right the Ravens are. Just constantly getting value out of consensus players.

How does this compare to the rest of the league during that span? They probably all have a losing record collectively, imo. QB rushes (which is where Balt and KC made their money against us last playoff run) isn't generally a function of not having a big fat tub of goo at 1t, but the EDGEs poorly containing. Ah i got what you are saying. You are saying that when they build the board, they are already accounting for subjective stuff like off the field/character/medical/need etc etc and that level of subjectivity in the board from the jump puts you further away from true BPA before the draft even starts. Fair take then.

I like this, but the thing about it is it makes it kind of faceless. For example, when I was doing the above work, I wanted to know who we had available and who we took. Now obviously, there are guys that fall on boards due to character/injury stuff which these boards don't really account. Tariq Woolen really stuck out on the list, but I tried to be faithful to "highest ranked player left." So picking the 90th player at pick 90 is close to consensus, but when the #45 player is sitting there, it's not really the same thing. I think during this draft, I'm gonna look at the 2-3 guys who are left on the consensus board when it gets around to be our pick and compare later.

We stopped the run just fine last year, fwiw. What I'm telling you is that no punter is gonna get a first round grade lol. You are kind of trying to turn this into a gotcha. Beane doesn't know if Watkins or Pickens are there or not when he makes the board. That's the point of the board. And that's the rub. Maybe every GM in the NFL was wrong on Elam. That's why you let the board come to you and don't chase needs, IMO.

I'm not sure how much of you fine folks consume NFL media, but there was a very funny story last year about how Howie Roseman and the Eagles just follow the consensus draft boards, which makes their drafting look great to the people that make those draft boards. Now who knows if that's really true (it's probably not). But I think it would be fun to analyze the past Bills drafts based on consensus boards and see who we "should" have taken vs who we did (I'm only doing the first 3 rounds because its exhausting) So let's begin 2024: #33: Coleman - Big Board (BB):Cooper DeJean DB #60: Bishop - BB: Ennis Rakestraw JR DB #95: Carter- BB: Troy Franklin WR 2023: #25: Kincaid - BB: Nolan Smith Jr, EDGE #59: OCT- BB: OCT! #91: Dorian Williams - BB: Antonio Johnson, DB 2022: #23: Elam - BB: Jermaine Johnson, EDGE #63: Cook - BB: Nakobe Dean, ILB #89: Bernard - BB: Perrion Winfrey, DL 2021: #30: Rousseau - BB: JOK, ILB #61: Boogie Basham - BB: Creed Humphrey, IOL #93: Spencer Brown - BB: Ifeatu Melifonwu, CB What does this tell us? I don't know tbh. I like both lists about the same. Sorry to waste your time but discuss!

I think this is all very hard to argue. We simply don't know where most NFL teams had him. Maybe they all missed? The consensus big board had Elam at 29 behind Booth and McDuffie but ahead of Gordon. I don't expect Beane to be perfect every year and out-evaluate the rest of the NFL. I don't think that's fair.

Here some things I can guarantee. No QBs after Cam Ward will have a first round grade on the Bills draft board. Cam may not either. No punter will have a first round grade on the Bills draft board. I agree that it's not THAT simple to just say "BPA" because I would lean towards premium positions with my picks too. But if it gets to the Bills pick and Starks is there as their last first round grade sticking out like a sore thumb, well, I wouldn't hate it then.

But that's the thing, and @HappyDays's example illustrates it. We didn't NEED a Kyler Gordon slot DB in 2022. We had Taron Johnson playing at a high level. Now, 3 years later, TJ is coming off the worst year of his career, and is IMO a cut candidate next offseason. Gordon may be the one of the best slot CBs in the league. Elam is off the team. You can obviously play this game with anybody and any year. And who knows how closely Gordon and Elam were ranked to each other. But self-handicapping because of need just makes the already long odds of the draft process even longer. I am on record that I think Walter Nolen is one of the best IDL players projected to be around our pick. I prefer him to the other guys who play 1t and fit more of what we need on defense. I don't care about fit. If Beane prefers Nolen as a player to a Harmon, even slightly, but picks Harmon because he likes the fit better, I wholeheartedly disagree with that strategy. Point blank, period.

It can't be, because we don't know his draft process. I guess what matters is do you believe that Elam was truly sticking out as the best player left on their board when they traded up for him, or did he reach because he needed a CB?

Man, I just really don't agree with any of this. The history of the NFL is that things can change....fast. When you are penciling in your first round pick to fill in a pre-planned "hole," you are not only limiting flexibility at the pick, but future roster flexibility. Not only can you fail to fill a hole because it's an imperfect science (see Elam, Kaiir), but pigeon-holing yourself for the future is just not a good idea imo. You say BPA is subjective, (and it is) but its also the best science they have. Brandon Beane will have a board, and the players him and the scouts have evaluated will be ranked top to bottom. That is THEIR process and if they go outside it because they need a CB, that is not winning strategy.

“Just reading over some of these threads, I was wondering if the majority of people on here really believe that it is a good move to hand over the starting job to McGahee, and that Henry should be on his way out? Surely, MOST people on this board cannot be that illogical. Please, give me some faith in BILLS FANS! Travis Henry has been an extraordainry NFL back the last two years, our best player during that period, and is one of the top five backs in this league. And people think we should replace him with a player who has proven....what??? Absolutely nothing and is coming off a HUGE injury. If it's true, that most people on this board believe this, what illogical people!” - facts and logic man circa 2004 Willis ended up with 5300 yards and 32 TDs over the next 4 seasons. Henry had 2800 yards and 11 TDS over the next 4 seasons and then his career ended. Points for being consistent pre Chat GPT.

Oh look, it’s the part where ChatGPT the poster disagrees and writes “facts and logic” nineteen times lol

Rousseau, Bernard, Benford were all on rookie deals too. All under contract until 26.

I also think the draft luckily comes with lower expectations. When we needed every first rounder to save the franchise, the stakes were higher. Now we just need them to hit and be productive players to maybe win a Super Bowl. But even if they bust, we are gonna cruise to double digit wins and a home playoff game, so it’s not as do or die.

Not joking, I think Dane and Ingram have more to offer at this point. He is that bad.

I mean, Beane and co offered him a visit lol.

Lying in bed….

I’m pretty sure I didn’t quote you. Lighten up Francis

Cooks a very good back. we have a great OL. I think if Cook could be had for $12M AAV he’d be signed by now, tbh. KC, Cinn and Houston wouldn’t pay him $15M either. He’d go to a bottom feeder if he chases the biggest bag.

Not sure that's the case.