FireChans

Haven’t watched enough of him, but my baseline concern is ability to get open v man at the NFL level. That’s not just him, that’s any relatively slower player.

Where are the sleepers?

@GunnerBill is legit one of the best draft commentary dudes around. He had Juwan Johnson IIRC as a sleeper target in the 7th round a few years back, and Johnson has 800+ yards and 11 TD’s in the last two seasons. Guy knows his stuff.

Zinter is absolutely a target for me in the later rounds if he’s available. Great IOL replacement player in a year or two.

You’d also need more picks as they are gonna be playoff team picks. 5 pick 26+’s are worth like 1 or 2 top 10 picks.

The one strategy that I have always subscribed to is getting day 1/2 talent in day 3 because of poor medicals, off the field concerns, etc. We have seen this pay off for teams in the past. Mathieu Hill Biadasz Trey Smith Paye JOK Myles Jack Mixon Those guys all fell due to medicals or off the field stuff. And they all wildly outperformed their draft position. So who are the red flag guys who have great talent, and a not so great background?

Sutton doesn’t fit the timeline anymore of the team. the time to trade for him was mid season last year when Sherfield and Harty had proven to be laughable signings. we probably beat the Chiefs if Sutton was on the roster in the postseason. But that’s over now.

Relitigating a Shady McCoy bar fight from almost a decade ago is so on-brand though.

Meh, I agree with a lot of what you said, but the stories of most of those players’ careers just hadn’t been written yet. Sammy was probably regarded as better WR talent than Tyreek in 2017, but today it’s not close. Ditto with Dareus and Chris Jones. And Charles Clay and Kelce. Maybe all those dudes reach different heights if the circumstances were different but I doubt it. Sammy was a nutcase, Dareus preferred eating to playing, and Charles Clay’s knees were disintegrating before our eyes. And Sammy was unsalvageable by McVay and Reid. I agree back then it wasn’t some gigantic talent gap though.

He probably doesn’t have the same success he had in KC. But we also don’t send him to an in-conference rival with a stacked roster to send us home every year. the point isn’t, “if we drafted Mahomes do we have 4 SB trips?” The point is, “if we send Mahomes literally anywhere other than the Chiefs with future HoF players and a HoF coach, are the Bills getting sent home by the Chiefs every year?” And the answer to that is obvious, imo.

Oh well in that case!

Even the 50-50 guys aren’t 50-50 to be homeruns. They are 50-50 to be Gabe Davis’

It’s doubly painful that the Bills traded him to a team that was 10 steps ahead of the Bills from a talent standpoint at the time. Jones, Kelce and Hill, their cornerstone HoFers were all there. I think they’ve still out done us in personnel but the gap shrank considerably just by virtue of standard NFL erosion and different team building timelines. It’s like if the Dolphins traded us Marino while we had Reed, Thurman and Bruce already on the roster as a perennial playoff team. Even if Mahomes is in the NFC, on a team like the Saints, maybe he still stands in our way in the SB but it would feel much more like an all-time rivalry. Allen V Mahomes in the final game of the year. And with a Dennis Allen or Sean Payton and that roster, we would have the edge on personnel. Ultimately, we birthed the generational dynasty. Much like the Jets did when they knocked out Drew Bledsoe (and they still are miserable about it.) And this graphic is pain.

FWIW, I believe the top 3 in this class are universally rated higher than in the 2020 class. I guess that’s my point though. We traded our first for Diggs because we didn’t think there was a sure thing at pick 22. That had its own version of risk because we had to take on more money to pay Diggs, even though he had a much higher floor as an established pro. There is no risk free avenue in the NFL. Trading multiple picks to get an all time prospect is a risk. Trading a pick for an established vet who needs to get paid is a risk. Trading away a pick to punt on a QB selection is a risk. Trading into the top 10 for a QB is a risk.

Usually they extensions include that year and bring down their cap hit. It’s why Jerry Jeudy appeared to get so much GTD money in his extension, because this season for him was already fully GTD.

To @Kirby Jackson’s point, there are exceptions to even this philosophy. Baltimore famously traded up for Flacco in 2008 and LJ in 2018.

Curse of the Bambino. ARod’s journalism career is really taking off.

If they are better at it, they, by definition, are not wrong as much as everyone else. They are actually wrong the least. Because they are better at it. That’s what “better” means!

The NFL is resistant to analytics because they don’t want the data out there. The problem with arguing about draft pick accumulation is that draft pick trades are not always “more valuable pick next year for this year’s pick,” which is sort of a fallacious argument. Yes, if a team offered next years first for your second every year, you’d be stupid to not take it. But what’s the data on trading down from the 5th round for a 6th and 2 7ths? Probably not as much of a slam dunk. What about your second for an extra 3rd and 4th and next years 3rd? Hard to say if that’s as much of a no-brainer. I will be first to say if a team offers us a first next year for pick 60, Brandon Beane should take it. They won’t, though.

The article legit says Ozzie Newsome was better than almost everyone else.

We are never going to suck bad enough to pick where the next Jamar Chase is going to go unless Josh gets hurt. So you either leverage your future or you don’t complain about not having elite weapons.

Brock Purdy should thank his lucky stars Tua exists running a derivative scheme from his HC’s tree. He seems like a good kid so I don’t like to rag on him, but he’s closer to Mac Jones than an elite QB.

Yup. The days of Bills fans dreaming for a 20 year reign of terror with 10 SB appearances is long dead. We gotta try to build up the rest of the roster to sneak one or two if Pat twists his ankle.

No

No. All of those teams had to win multiple playoff games to get to the SB. We haven’t won multiple playoff games since the Raiders were in Oakland. You can’t win a SB unless you get there. I’ll take our chances if we get there. Also, the Buccaneers and Rams did win. 49ers and Eagles were a play away from winning with far worse QB’s. the only other strategy available to us is trade Allen/McD and 10 first round picks for Reid and Mahomes straight up.