FireChans

Definitely a lot of those offenses sucked! From a YPT perspective: Ebron 5.3 Pitts 9.3 OJ 11.1 Hurst 7.1 Njoku 6.4 Engam 6.3 Eifert 7.4 Hock 6.2 Fant 8.5 Kind of an interesting discrepancy. Fant with the third highest YPT on the worst passing offense. OJ with an absolutely electric YPT but a bad career.

I am ABSOLUTELY of the opinion that the bolded is correct. If Kincaid is a superstar 2-3 years from now, the pick obviously rules. Not sure we will get that answer until 2-3 years from now.

I think the passing yard totals would probably be more meaningful than "scoring offenses" for a comparison like this. Feels like the relative low numbers of TD's caught/red zone targets would be more all over the place than just raw targets/catches/yards. Dawson Knox averaged 10.8 YPC this past season, 48 for 517. If your prediction is 40 something catches for 520 yards, that's fine too!

I meant those numbers as rough estimates. 400 something yards, not 400 on the nose lol.

I mean, I'm actually curious. If you scouted all those dudes and have Kincaid as, at least, the second best TE prospect behind Pitts, that's really awesome. I didn't scout them all. If you didn't, I'd love to see from some other amateur or professional scout saying something similar.

Did you scout all those guys? NFL.com's prospect has him at 6.48. Hock was 6.80. Fant was 6.40 OJ was a 7. Njoku was a 6.80. Ebron was a 6.80. Engram was a 6.40. Pitts was a 7.19. Hurst was 6.40. Based on NFL.com, that looks kinda middle of the pack.

Some other good TE rookie years: Gronk: 42 rec 546 yards 10 TD's Gonzalez: 33 rec 368 yards 2 TD's Honestly, it's been a common school of thought that TE's take some time to really develop, and the numbers pretty clearly support that.

What was my point besides to draw production comparisons? It was very clear. I made my OP with 1st round TE's because we had a first round TE. A poster (not named you) brought up that maybe we should be comparing to other TE's that are used primarily in receiving roles. I posted Mike Gesicki's stats as a rookie as a comparison (because he is infamous for almost never lining up inside and playing big slot exclusively). Then you started screeching about Travis Kelce, and I posted his stats as well for comparison. Just hit the big red X in the top corner baby. It's time for a nap.

I actually looked it up. Only 11 times in NFL history have two TE's on the same time each surpassed 500 yards. Attached is an article from 2017 discussing the historic pace of Cam Brate and OJ Howard (a pace that they ended up not continuing at) From the data in this article, only 4 teams have EVER had their two TE's accumulate >1400 yards combined when both have had at least 500 yards. So something that has only happened four times in NFL history. Only once since 1984, and that was Gronk/Hernandez. I don't think that's realistic. Edit: forgot the article! https://www.buccaneers.com/news/data-crunch-nfl-s-most-prolific-tight-ends-19655150

That would be awesome but also absolutely shocking. Mostly because I'm assuming you don't think that it's going to be like the Chiefs last year when Kelce had 1300 and Noah Gray had 300. That would probably be a top 5 TE duo statline in NFL history.

Yeah, he's a player comp. It's not moving the goalposts when I'm not even having a discussion with you lmao. What are the "goal posts" that you even have here? Besides:

Dezmin Lewis sends his regards!

I mean, Mike Gesicki is the poster child of “not being used in the traditional TE role.” which you are well aware of. You’re just mad which seems like a personal problem.

Mark Andrews wasn't drafted in the first round. Neither was Kelce. For reference: Mark Andrews rookie season - 34 rec 552 yards 3 TD's Travis Kelce rookie season - 1 GP 0 target 0 rec 0 TD's. George Kittle rookie season - 43 rec 515 yards 2 TD's

So like a Mike Gesicki? Rookie year, Mike had 22 rec for 202 yards and 0 TDs.

Living in the past. In 2019 and 2020, Knox had a ton of drops. In 2021, Knox had the 4th lowest drop percentage on the team of all players with >20 targets. In 2022, he had the second lowest.

"An absolute steal at XX. Some teams were not high on him, but he can absolutely play and contribute at the next level." "Love this pick. X player brings a toughness and edge to the defense." Anything that refers to a player's physical tools despite their performance. Anything that refers to a player's instincts making up for a lack of their physical tools.

Pinning this comment for when he inevitably is an All-Pro.

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons. Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out. But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year. Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year? I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season. I am expecting closer to 30-300. Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

I'm reserving judgment. I am hopeful for better OL play. I don't like the Kincaid pick at all. Dorsey could barely get Knox involved last year. Now he has to get a second TE involved? What's the over/under on how many balls Kincaid gets next year? 30 catches?

Why is Antonio Johnson falling Gunner!

The blockers in the NFL have been introducing Edmunds to the Gatorade jugs more often than not.

DHop rumours are Dheating up! f5!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And when Davis signs a big contract elsewhere, you’ve upgraded the position already with Hopkins and gained another conditional pick coming back.

We have that expression in American English. We don’t have “put another shrimp on the barbey,” which may have been what you were thinking of.