Wraith

The Bills offense can move the ball down the field. That is not the problem. The problem is the occasional burst of turnovers. The article tries to connect that to the deep throws. It is not true.

Yup. This is analysis is deeply flawed: It tries to make it seem like this is multi-game or even season-long trend, when their own graphs shows it was really just one game (Miami) influencing both the stats and obviously, by extension, the perception of the media. The analysis fails to acknowledge that while the Bills route density hasn't changed much in Dorsey's offense, in the one game affecting the analysis, the defense was vastly different, bucking the trend of consistent two-high safeties in favor of single high or no safeties. Remember last year when two-high was supposedly the answer to Josh Allen? It makes an assumption that deep throws are inherently more risky and cherry picks one play to try to demonstrate that the interception to John Brown. The deeper throws are obviously harder to complete but an incomplete pass is hardly the worst thing that can happen. Someone show me some data that says deeper throws result in more turnovers. Seems counter intuitive to me. At most, three of Allen's interceptions this year came on deep throws (depending on how they are defined). Pittsburgh (Levi Wallace covering Gabe Davis 1-on-1 in the end zone) Minnesota (Peterson interception in OT) Chicago (1st interception, safety lined up on line of scrimmage then dropped back to create a double team against McKenzie) So many of Allen's interceptions this year were on short little throws directly to defenders he inexplicably didn't see in the middle of the season. Removes those from the numbers and nobody is talking about his turnover count or trying to connect them to the deep shots.

Any theories on how this could happen?

The Cincy TD was not on Tre, it was 100% the perfect offensive play call for the alignment the Bills were in. The Bills were in zone and White had outside leverage with Hamlin inside deep and Neal, Edmunds, Milano underneath. Hamlin had to drop down to cover the slot receiver who ran a deep cross behind Neal and Edmunds. As soon as Hamlin committed, White had zero chance to cover the deep in route. I don't know if Hamlin made the right decision, the slot guy would've been wide open at the goal line if Hamlin kept his depth but it might've been a more difficult throw in between Edmunds and Milano. Perhaps Poyer should've rotated over sooner...

I think you are massively under rating the offense under Dorsey. His job is not at risk. The offense under Dorsey this year was much much better than last year under Daboll.

😂 It has occurred to me more than once in the last 24 hours that the person I'm arguing with who can't quite remember the play they're complaining about was probably drunk off their ass when the play happened.

If the NFL actually enforced the play clock like the NBA enforced the shot clock, then Dorsey would adjust. Teams know they get that extra second (or more) and it affects their behavior. The only explanation for why the NFL still calls it this way is because they want it to remain subjective so they can ignore it when it suites the leagues needs.

As far as I know, the NFL still hasn't officially acknowledged the existence of the "Sky Judge." The on field officials still pretend they went back and talked about it some more. It doesn't seem that there are any rules at all. Don't get me wrong, I overall think it is an improvement to the game flow but the fact that it just showed up unannounced mid-season last year with no oversight or transparency bothers me.

Yeah, objectively speaking the defense played great and did exactly what was expected against a third string QB with some scary WRs. Both the running and passing output from the Dolphins were historically bad and all of their points up until the 4Q were basically gifted to them by the Bills offense and special teams. Emotionally speaking though, the win would've felt a lot different if the defense didn't allow the Dolphins one and only actual TD drive to happen just as the offense was clicking again and had gone ahead by 10 in the 4Q. It felt like the Bills were about to run away with the game after the Gabe Davis TD (like they did against NE last week) but instead the defense gives up an easy looking drive and TD and suddenly the game is tight to the end. To their credit they locked things down again on the final two drives. The one drive definitely colors my perception of the defense and the game overall.

Perfectly stated.

The issue is the line obviously affects the perception of the play by the announcers and viewers. On the last play, Nance and Romo became locked in on where Singletary ended up relative to the yellow line. Once Romo finally realized the line wasn't in the right spot, which was very late in the discussion, he finally acknowledged there was no way the call was going to be overturned because he was right at the actual marker and you couldn't see the ball in the replays. But the damage was done as far as the perception goes for a large number of viewers who are now claiming the Bills were gifted that last call.

Agreed. Or at least notice when the line is not in the right spot. Romo was 2 minutes into his screed about how he thought Singletary was short of the line before he finally noticed the extremely obvious fact that the yellow line was not in the right spot.

It wasn’t a scramble. Allen was still in the pocket, having taken one step forward after finishing the drop. The ball came out on time. It was a totally routine play and low risk 1 on 1 downfield until Brown broke off the route. Not finishing on an anticipation route makes the quarterback look bad but it was Brown’s fault. CBS and Romo broke it down from the high angle camera view.

Thank you. So many complaints about Allen today are from people who can't even accurately remember the play they're complaining about.

Bass shanked it. It wasn’t by design.

Davis was phenomenal today.

Then you’re straight up wrong, lil fella. There is no argument to be made that the Bills were better down the stretch leading into the playoffs last season. They almost ended up as a wild card. The game against the Falcons was uglier than any Bills win this season.

I would encourage you to review how the Bills finished the regular season last year. After a solid victory in New England they finished the season with two ugly wins against the Falcons and the Jets. It wasn’t pretty. How the Bills played in the playoffs last year has warped a lot of people’s memories including yours. Ironically it was the 2020 team that really finished the regular season on a roll only to squeak past lower seeds in the first two rounds of the playoffs.

I think that was called due to the blow to the face mask.

Nah, Brown quit on his route on the first INT and the second INT literally clanked off Beasley’s chest. The fumble might’ve been Allen’s fault, gotta go back and watch to see if someone whiffed in the outside blitz or if Allen misread it.

Of the 14 playoff teams, the Bills had the third highest strength of victory behind the Cowboys and the Bengals. They had the 2nd best point differential in total but were first overall if you prorate since they played fewer games. The Bills are really good.

Turn overs, plural? The fumble might’ve been a misread on the corner blitz but both interceptions were on the receivers. As a group our receivers completely sucked the life out of the offense in the second quarter and it almost cost the team the game. They collectively made some nice plays late, thankfully.

Offense: Allen. I was amazed. The Dolphins were playing hyper aggressive cover 0 defense all game, leaving the deep stuff 1on1 and Allen stood on there and hit the deep ball over and over. Those two TD passes in the second half took so much mental strength after having every receiver not named Diggs have a turnover causing mistake in the second quarter. Props to Singletary on that last run but outside of that Allen was the entire offense. Defense: Elam, Edmunds, and Milano were pretty damn good. I thought Poyer was uncharacteristically bad.

Yup, the Steelers ended up losing that last game so the Bills finished a full game ahead but the situation could've been reversed. The Steelers late season collapse that year was pretty incredible. They were 11-0 until losing to the Bills!

That wasn't meaningless, though. Bills needed to win that game to guarantee the #2 seed and the divisional round home game.