Mikie2times

Huge win today by the Bills and easily the most impressive of the season. That Denver team wasn't nearly as bad as the record indicated.

I referenced this about Brady after the Eagles game and I based most of it on one concept. Not evaluating how good he is currently or how long he can play above average football. Just evaluating the psychological challenges age can have on a player like him. He's one of the most competitive players in NFL history. Not only from a standpoint of winning and losing but from the standpoint of evaluating his own performance. He has be talking for years about how long he can play. I don't think he really got his head around the concept that his body could just start failing him. So in a situation where he might have played poorly in the past he would usually show the poor body language, dust himself off, and whoever played him the following week good luck. What I think he's finding now is he keeps dusting himself off and nothing is happening. He keeps hitting a wall against what his expectations of himself are. He will come to the realization very soon that he will never be the player he was. Given who he is as a competitor, I just don't think he can survive long in that environment. He is too critical with himself and the psychological tole will eventually do him in. This is his last season in my opinion.

21-13 Broncos

I expect it to be very polarizing. Pretty much every advanced model used to forecast future success has Buffalo very poorly rated. Most well below even the lowly 3-7 Broncos. They have us rated below Cleveland. It seems to me the more these simulations play out, the more it turns into see the advanced stats were right. Then a win like last week and it’s see we are that good, but the advanced stat guys are like, ugh, this is another powder puff. As usual the truth is somewhere in the middle. Look at the line movement on this game if you want a clear picture of exactly what I'm saying. Started off -5 and got immediately dropped to -4 and will close at -3. So what you got is the record driven thinkers/perception off record driving the opening number. Then the advanced guys driving it down. Handicappers do not care very much about records, in fact they want teams like Buffalo to have a following and become a popular bet only to fade the hell out of them if the data indicates a regression. I can say to a certainty the data indicates a regression, that doesn't mean it will occur, it's just the data. I can say for Denver it indicates a progression. If you care about that or not, that’s each fans perspective. Just as how much or little the fan base reacts to one game or a series of games. How much they factor in record, base stats, advanced stats and opponents. So on, so forth.

Anybody that thinks Denver falls into the easy win category, rude awakening come Sunday . Don't let the record fool you. This is not a good match up for us. Denver could easily be 6-1 over the last 7 games playing a much more difficult schedule. Two losses by a total of 4 points and the Minnesota debacle last week. They looked better in wins against the Titans and Cleveland. They have an excellent running game ranking 10th on football outsiders. They have the 9th rated defense and 6th rated run defense on Football Outsiders. The make up they have is basically a carbon copy of the Eagles. We do get the benefit of facing an inexperienced QB but if we win this will certainly be the best team we have beat all season. Following Denver we get another challenging situation. Dallas, like Denver, an excellent run game ranking 3rd in the league behind a huge offensive line. Unlike Denver we should have more luck running the ball. You can run on Dallas and you better try, because that pass rush. Dear lord. Ever since they added Bennett it's gone nuclear. Just having watched them two straight weeks the type of speed they bring off the edge and how aggressive they play. If Josh is dropping back and hanging out he will be done. We have to mirror what Minnesota did to them Sunday Night two weeks ago. Lot of running, misdirection, using the speed against them. Garett is capable of beating himself. We will play consecutive weeks against teams that directly challenge our weaknesses as we have seen thus far. Excellent rushing teams, excellent run defense and pass rushing. We have to get a split out of this thing. We will know how far this team has come and where we stand moving forward once everybody is fat and happy on Turkey next Thursday.

Right....how many teams would have asked Lamar to stop running. Learn how to be a NFL quarterback. This guy did the same thing with Kaep and Tyrod. Again, not nearly the talent of Lamar. But he’s got a special ability in the run game nobody else in the league has. In a league with growing pedestrian QB play, that and great defense can do a lot of damage.

Title says he will be a HC. I agree he's better served as an OC but somebody will pursue him for a HC role soon. Even while thinking he would be a much better OC vs HC, I wouldn't have a problem with the hire. I don't see evidence from most converted OC's and DC's that they have some superior level of HC ability. Most fail in that spot, NFL is littered with them. At least he has a very clear plan. About as decisive in what he wants to do and accomplish as any coordinator in the league. He knows the path to accomplish it. He knows how to teach it. He knows the players he needs and he can get those players. This all pertaining to offense which makes him even more appealing. 99% of the rest of leagues OC's have a requirement that most teams never find (Excellent passing QB).

I don't remember the general thoughts on Roman when we brought him on. Too much discussion over Tyrod and Rex at the time. What I do remember was some of the "This is a passing league comments". I remember fans thinking Roman was past his time. As we all know the league changes. Perhaps Roman was a bit past his time a few years ago, perhaps he was ahead of it? I think many coaches will look at what Baltimore is doing and say hey, I'm not going to try and find the Bill Walsh 1 in 50 QB anymore. Why should I? Who can I get that is an athletic passer/runner, develop an outstanding run game and stack the defense. If that's your model who has a better history of executing it than Roman? His level of success is rather absurd, perhaps constantly undervalued during an era where the running game was all but dead. His two years here we finished in the top 15 in points scored. Last time we did that in two consecutive years was 1995 and 1996. He was with the 49ers prior, 3 straight years they finished top 15 in points scored. Last time they accomplished that was 2001, 2002, and 2003. They also went to two NFC championships and one Super Bowl during that time. Now with Baltimore, leading the league in points scored and certainly looking poised to go on a deep playoff run. I always loved this guys offense. He has done some great things with Kaep and Taylor, and some down right stupid things with Lamar. Lamar is a rare talent, I understand that. But he didn't exactly fail with less.

I don't disagree about Dallas as a whole. I don't think they're a threat for a Super Bowl or anything. They're inconsistent. That said, what they do consistently is exactly what we don't do well. Namely run the ball with power (offensive line has been healthy and unhealthy all year, hopefully we get unhealthy). Then since they added Bennett, that pass rush is just dumb = Allen bailing, fumbles, picks, etc. If you caught them play the Vikings a few weeks ago, that is what we need to do in order to have a chance. Minnesota lived off play action, screens, anything to turn the speed and aggressiveness Dallas has on defense against itself.

Dallas game is going to really be a struggle. Just the way the Cowboys are built. I don't think they're Top 5, but they have a huge offensive line geared toward the power run game and a defense that gets to the QB about as fast as any team in the NFL. If you watched them lately you would know what I'm talking about. OK results, it's the the style of play that scares me.

I’m not ready to concede to this. Just like I’m not ready to get overzealous about the Bills. New England got waxed by Baltimore. Philadelphia has played several times this year with both Jackson and Jeffery out and they look like crap when that happens, Wentz has looked lost in these spots. Like Buffalo, they just haven’t played anybody. Points for taking care of business, but I would give the Bills better odds at winning a playoff game this year than New England MAKING the Super Bowl.

That’s what drove my post. He has the look of a man whose body is failing him. It’s like you can see him start to get it. You can only dust yourself off so many times and try and overcome that adversity. I also agree on the weather. If he keeps playing, I imagine it will be somewhere warm. It would be a mistake though. I can’t stand the dude, but after his career I would much rather him go out semi on top or on top than as a beaten man half of what he was.

Actually I do see a decline there. Maybe a millisecond or two. Then another couple milliseconds on release. Then weaker arm. His offensive line isn’t doing him any favors nor are his receivers but they didn’t in the past all that much either. Again, main point is this is not a guy I’m scared of anymore. He’s not done per say, but I’m not worried about some magical Brady GOAT legend virtually guaranteeing outcomes like he has his whole career. He’s not that player anymore. Defense or not, that makes New England vulnerable.

I suppose it depends on your definition of done. Is he good enough to run an efficient offense? Sure. Can he lead his team to a solid record with great defensive play? Sure. Will his QB rating look appealing? Sure. Are you still scared of him putting New England on his back and willing them to victory? Not at all. Are you still thinking a loss is all but guaranteed if the game is close and New England has the ball last? Not at all. It's the start of the demise. How much longer until it turns into an abrupt decline? Not sure. He's not showing accuracy like he has in the past. Not the same pocket presence. Instead of just being annoyed by the pass rush he is completely wilting and becoming more Trent than Tom in his check down frequency. He's afraid of getting hit and can't get the ball downfield. Setting his own personal records multiple times this season as far as passing inefficiency. For the first time I'm not nervous about New England because of Tom Brady. That defense with an above average QB is a very difficult out, but he is no longer playing like the GOAT and the decline is coming.

According to DVOA and Vegas the line it was even on a neutral field. According to the final score the line we even on a neutral field. From rankings 23-32 ten teams exist, Buffalo being one of them at 25. We are 6-1 against those teams, 1-1 against teams 23 and 24. 0-2 against everybody else. I'm not a doomsday person here. Nobody thought playoffs when the season started and we have done a great job at taking care of business against the teams slotted worse (6-0). That's an impressive 6-0, but where we are, it's not far off our preseason expectations. Every game we play each week is up for grabs. We shouldn't be assumed to be better or write in wins against anybody.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff/2019 Again, we still will make the playoffs in my opinion, but when Vegas pegs you as even on a neutral field with the Browns and this information feeds into Vegas and supports it. Yes, these rankings are accurate from my chair. Had we won by a few points it wouldn't have changed my view on that.

Chicks don’t even know the name of our band

Fitz just never got the right situation for him because his skill set doesn't really allow for it. He is incredible off the bench when a team needs a spark but in order to put him in that position proactively it likely means alienating your starter. If coaches felt more comfortable just letting a starter know look, your playing like crap and Fitzy is coming in. Your still our guy. Well, I could see somebody like that really being able to help a franchise. Unfortunately he usually only came in after injury or then he played well enough to be named starter. He should have always been a guy to light a fuse and had plenty of options to do so given today's QB play if coaches weren't so squeamish on pulling a guy temporarily .

He was born with it. Just the whole depth perception thing and playing corner (obviously with his good eye facing the QB). It was really a great story. One of those guys when he made a tackle would just charge up on the ball carrier with so fast and always cut peoples legs out before they could even make a move. It was impressive to watch.

I played with a guy who was blind in one eye in high school. He played corner and was probably the best open field tackler I’ve ever seen. It was incredible and I could never really understand how he was able to overcome that.

Bills fans react the same as scorned lovers. It really is that simple. Most of us just throttle our expectations to avoid getting hurt. It sucks living that way. Don’t blame people that do but prefer the other approach.

Fair, I could argue strength of schedule, within the world of DVOA is very accurate and more of a 20,000 foot view. But I can also appreciate the breakout. No question we have performed well in DVOA against who we have played. Dismissal of DVOA in either form makes me want hit my head against the wall. Pythagorean theorem is a very simple statistical tool to project future success. That is much more accurate then simply looking at W/L. Looking for unemotional data points that predict future success is a very logical pursuit. My focus once we over perform or under perform is trying to understand why and if that element is sustainable. As an example in our playoff season we ranked 21st in DVOA, so I looked at why? Turnover margin. I considered if it was sustainable. With somebody like Tyrod and our defense that year I felt it was. Generally speaking very little correlation exists in turnover rates over a full season so you see regression as the year progresses in teams with large + turnover differential early = regression to mean. I didn't see it in that team and I knew if that played out it had more weight then what DVOA could handle. I also see elements in this team I really tried to focus on in the original post as reasons why I think we will outperform our DVOA as we did in 2017.

DVOA had the Giants and Redskins beating us. This is a really disappointing response from the community on this thread. Not toward me, just toward an outright dismissal of the system that basically creates the Vegas lines and has the highest correlation toward winning % of any stat anywhere. This isn't Pro Football Focus. If you want to learn before you judge read below. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#DVOA https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff/2019 Use the drop down menu and sort by year.

McD wants only physical corners. Gilmore is nothing like that. I don't think we even considered it nor do I think we would even with the benefit of hindsight. Call it marriage to the scheme. We saw that with Rex and others, it's something that always bothered me and why I think NE is the best. BB is one of the few that is married to his players not a scheme and he excels at teaching them how to execute new schemes and game plans to fit exactly what the best mismatches are on a week by week basis. Everybody else looks for players that fit into a box that is part of a bigger box. BB could care less.

So much debate about how good we really are. It's indicative of every hot start we have had since the start of the playoff drought. Expectations rise and crash just as fast. DVOA is disgustingly accurate KPI brought to you by Football Outsiders. It is to the NFL what KenPom is to College Basketball. DVOA has us ranked 25th in the league with wins against, TEN 24th, NYG 26th, NYJ 30th, CIN 31st, and Miami 32nd. DVOA estimates us at 3-4. Which when you review each game and evaluate each teams DVOA against ours seems spot on. That's not to turn this into a negative thread. We will make the playoffs. I Babe Ruth'ed my shot on that one during the off-season. While I do believe we are accurately pegged on DVOA I also believe the way this team plays is designed to win swing games. Our defense is no bend and snap, ranking 2nd in the league in most third down attempts by offenses, 12th in 3rd down %, 3rd in yards per play Allowed, 5th in first downs per game, 5th in red zone attempts per game. Then dear gawd, 28th in RZ touchdown %. In sum, teams do not drive on us. We make that very difficult. If they do, they generally score touchdowns. Most of the league has below average QB play. So even getting in a position to impact our biggest weakness is not common. On the offensive side I will site one statistic. We rank first in the league in RZ TD scoring % and I put a lot of that on the very tangible impact of Josh Allen in the RZ. His ability to run, extend plays, and make very challenging throws (while seemingly improving his decision making) is all very abnormal in a condensed part of the field. But again, the way he plays, I see him being a Red Zone match up nightmare. He is also one of the few non franchise (current) QB's that seems to be a closer on the final drive. I think we will see the occasional dud on defense as better teams get deeper into the RZ. Just as we will see our offense struggle to ever reach the RZ and take advantage of it's best strength. In a league built with a lot of truly porous defenses and low quality QB play we will beat most the teams within 5-10 rankings of our DVOA that fit that description . End result is a Wild Card team and a chance at potentially winning a road playoff game. Prior to the year that would have been considered a smashing success. Even if we beat Philadelphia it was still far and away the most probable outcome as far as a road wild card team. Enjoy the ride guys. It's usually never as good or bad as it seems.