Mikie2times

Ya, it's a tad confusing. I'm not looking at total player AV since draft. Somebody else on this site actually did that. I'm looking at any player selected by that GM during his tenure, then looking at the total players remaining in each of the GM's 4th year and 5th year (TD only made it until year 5 and Whaley really didn't). Then what is the total AV score of all drafted players in that 4th year and 5th year. So not what they did all the way up until the 4th and 5th year, but just that year. So for the 2017 draft, it was only catching the rookie years of White, Dawkins, and Milano. That's why I kept saying even in giving Whaley 2017, it really didn't impact much. Why did I just look at these years? TD had 5 drafts, Whaley had 4 (5 if you give him 2017) and Beane just completed his 5th. So it eliminated the player development argument. It captured draft contributions over a sustained time in a like way. It also offset some of the current conditions each inherited, showing what the teams looked like 4-5 years after they arrived. So a different look for sure.

This is a really good post. In the end it really hurt both people. TD and Ralph.

I thought he put in a lot of work and did a great job in positioning himself to get Josh. Selecting Josh, having him work out, has basically changed the way we view his entire body of work. Which was sort of the point of the thread. Now many on here have said, well duh. It should be that way. Which I do get, but once you nail the right QB it's not like the pressure to draft well goes down. If anything the draft becomes your only way to secure cap friendly elite players. We have to start landing more of our picks that's for sure.

Dude, you either A) didn't understand the first post or B) chose to ignore a lot of information. The graph provided includes Allen. The premise is to not only look at how it has gone with Allen but without and using hard data to do so. Data that is better than opinion but certainly not perfect. I have no history of posting negative things about Beane. I don't think he has been very good at the draft outside Allen, but this is the first I have said as much. I think TD arguably drafted better outside of the QB spot. I recognize you can't subtract the QB spot. Allen is one of the most important picks in our Franchises history. I also recognize Beane will have to do a lot better outside of that. That is all.

Huh? It's data. Interpret it as you wish. I don't have some long posting agenda on this topic.

It was one of the more puzzling picks in our Franchises history. Henry declined quickly, but he was playing reasonably well. Certainly not poor enough to welcome an injured RB on a team with a lot of holes.

It's reviewing the players at the exact same progression in time for each GM and Milano was not drafted by Beane. You don't have to give him to Whaley by any stretch and he factors very little in how this was done, but he 100% does not belong to Beane.

It was one pick, not a company and lifetime of work. One pick. Further, I'm not even downgrading Beane, it's the defensive Nancy types like you that can't even discuss what is obvious. Dude hasn't drafted well outside of Allen. Pretty factual. It's really hurt us that he hasn't. Also pretty factual. Allen being bigger than it all, also factual but not the point of this thread. That much is pretty obvious I would think. I also think it's a tad bit crazy to think Beane didn't have an element of luck in the drafting of Allen. Even if that was always his guy, hitting on any QB is not an exact science and every GM needs some luck in that process. If you don't agree with that, do you honestly think Beane would hit on every franchise QB he swung at? Hell even 50%? It's only looking at performance of all draft picks in 2004 and 2005. Nobody, including me said it was perfect and I even said the 2017 draft class was a bit of a nomad class, but for how the data is evaluated in this, it works pretty well. The 2017 draft picks didn't make up much scoring and including them allowed me to give Saint Doug one more year of evaluation which was much more rooted in the previous 4 years than 2017. I didn't remove Allen. In the graph you see the performance with Allen. Is the statement true that outside Allen Beane has not drafted better than Donahoe? I would say it's true. Determining if that question is relevant or not is up to who is asking the question. I think it is very relevant given we won't be drafting a franchise QB again, we need to start hitting on our draft choices, and Beane hasn't shown a high ability to do so. So if you don't think it's relevant that Beane has not done well in drafting players that will be his targets for his remaining time as GM of this team that's fine. It also has no bearing that Beans draft picks still have plenty of years left. This data captures the exact same duration of time for every player in it. It does not give any consideration to anything past the maximum of 5 years in the league and that would only be the case if the player was drafted in the first year of the sample.

You going to make the entire team sign it? It’s not like Damar asked them to stop playing.

I wanna puke over that one. Hell, I remember exactly where I was when Ben was drafted. 😕 I don’t disagree with this. I think the thought of a single draft pick basically ceiling the fate of an entire body of work is a little crazy to me, but it’s the way it is. It didn’t go TD’s way in this area and history will never be kind as a result. In broader terms I don’t think the ability of the two is very different. I think TD has arguably out drafted him, at the least it’s neutral, and he likely did better in FA, but Beane has won the two biggest areas, QB and Coach. Henry sure did decline though didn’t he? But ya. That will always be puzzling. Was really fun at first though.

Milano was in the 2017 draft with White, so no, I did not give Beane credit for that draft. I gave it to Whaley. It arguably should go to nobody, but it's a weird year. Dumb error, I corrected it outside the graph, thank you. I wouldn't go that far. McGee was outstanding, McGahee was a wasted pick, but a decent player. Lee Evans was also very good. Then you have the start of our high motor dynasty which could have been worse. I mean is Schobel not currently better than any of our DL picks?

I was curious in looking at ways to compare the last 3 relevant GM's we had as far as draft results. I used AV as others have in the past. Not by any stretch perfect but decent = https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/approximate_value.htm My initial thought prior to doing this was Beane, outside of Allen, has drafted about as well as Donahoe and that Whaley was awful. In large part that appears to be the case. Below is years 4 and 5 for each of these GM's. I wanted to look at those years as I wanted to see the impact of several years worth of shaping a roster. It is also the cut off we have on both Beane and Donahoe while just missing Whaley (although for this study I think 2017 qualifies as a 5th year). -For Beane this includes drafts from 2018-2022 / 2021-2022 -For Whaley this includes drafts from 2013-2017 (I assigned the 2017 class to Whaley for this exercise) / 2016-2017 -For Donahoe that includes drafts from 2001-2005 / 2004-2005 I looked at the last two years for each GM which are in bold above. I looked at how many picks remained on the team that they drafted. Then what the sum of the "AV" of those picks was, then what the AVG "AV" value of those picks was. These are the results: If you subtract Allen from Beane, he goes to a AV total of 97 and 86, with an average of 3.88 and 3.90. So again, very TD like, which some might think is an insult but it's not intended to be. More just perspective. Whaley is obviously atrocious. You also see the impacts in 2017 of McD taking over the roster and purging his picks. Top 5 players drafted as far as AV is concerned: Beane= Allen, Singletary, Rousseau, Oliver, Edmunds Whaley= Preston Brown, Robert Woods, Tre White, John Miller, Dion Dawkins 😨 Donahoe= Nate Clements, Terrance McGee, Willis McGahee, Lee Evans, Aaron Schobel

I think with an agent he would have gone a similar route as Kyler Murray. I think Murray's team knew the more he played the worse it was going to look, that, and he was under risk of injury given how he played. So instead of letting the deal expire then having the Cardinals in a position where they saw another year with god knows what possibly happening, Murray's camp aggressively pursued a new contract. Which ended up being pretty smart given Murray only hurt his stock prior to suffering a season ending injury.

That's all she wrote. Impressive. I don't know about you guys, but in doing this I was pretty surprised on a few things: 1. How high Allen is (he has had some incredible games) 2. How much higher Mahomes is than everybody else 3. Where Brady, Manning fell relative to Montana 4. Just how awful Lamar is. Starting to make that contract request even more laughable. 5. Rogers hasn't exactly been known for playoff success, but in the scheme of things has had his moments

I don't get it either, but I double check pro football reference and that is what they have. It was Russ and Dak.

He was one of the stunning ones. Very close!!! This one surprised me as well, great call!

Very warm on Brady, Mahomes that high across a big sample of games as well. A bit scary to say the least.

I was curious how it felt looking at playoff QB's without the names. I included a lot of modern guys, but some old greats as well. These are the following QB's that make up the data. I will post the results as people guess correct. I'm using per game averages to better hide the players. Aaron Rodgers P. Manning Josh Allen Joe Montana Lamar Jackson Tom Brady Dak Prescott Phillip Rivers D. Watson Joe Burrow Patrick Mahomes Russel Wilson Updated*

Watson in Cleveland > Jackson in Baltimore Look at what Watson did in Houston vs Lamar in Baltimore in playoff games (I don't know where you got 1-2 from, Lamar is 1-3). It's not close. Lamar Jackson 1-3 75 for 136, 55.88%, 225 Yards, 3 TD's and 5 INT's, 68.3 Passer rating Deshawn Watson 1-2 80 for 126, 63.5%, 290 Yards, 4 TD's and 1 INT, 91 Passer Rating No, again, the difference is Lamar can't throw the ball. He would be signed right now if he could throw the ball.

I would say the Ravens had a slightly better core than Houston 🤣 I would also triple down on Watson going deeper in the playoffs in his career. Lamar will never see a championship game, Watson has a legit chance at a Super Bowl with the right group. Much better passer and that's what matters. Not regular season wins under Romans joke offense that Tyrod Taylor made the pro bowl with.

Ya, I'll keep you posted for sure. I actually know that area pretty well. I got my head completely torched on vacation in that area last year. I had my "respect the west coast sun" moment. It's going to be so weird adjusting to a 10am kickoff. I love some Labatt's, I'm actually from the Detroit area originally, Labatt's is pretty big in that area as well.

It's odd you posted this as the thought crossed my mind recently. I was hoping somebody who is more researched on the subject could speak to it. The thought was surrounding Terry's age and Kim's health and what if Terry just wanted to move on. I wasn't sure how the new stadium played a part. What our agreement is. Obviously the OP's post seems far fetched on the surface, but who knows.

Lamar for 150 Million or Watson for 200 million? I'm paying the 200 million. Watson doesn't have anything in his game that should put a ceiling over him while Lamar arguably does. I just couldn't commit the kind of money he wants until he shows he's better as a passer. He certainly can be exciting at times. He's an incredible athlete. But for premium money I need a guy that can win from the pocket. Investing a large sum in somebody who can't is a disaster and certainly worth additional money to get somebody who can.

I think for some people the thought of a church using it's forum or somebody like Kim who has been through hell, as means to possibly increase publicity or branding is about as low as it gets. It's so low that even the faint risk of the intent not being pure is enough to draw a strong reaction. A lot of us don't exactly trust churches to not be this way. Perhaps the church called them and said we would like to do a prayer service for you, do you have anything you would like to say during the service? I doubt it could have been more than that. If you don't want to be skeptical about the intent that's up to you. As some have said, it seems a bit weird. If she was a member at that church it wouldn't seem weird at all. If that seems weird to you so be it.

Wow, that’s a turn out. Well count me in for week 1. So you guys get together for anything football related prior? Like the draft or preseason?