MasterStrategist

Which Sportsbook has the Bills as the "non favorite" to win the Afc east? DraftKings has Buffalo +135, Jets next at +240, then Miami +300.

Appreciate the write up! It does make you appreciate what we have now, that 2017 group had some pieces but mostly over-achieved. MLB is the biggest mystery, will Beane/Coach: 1. Draft a early replacement? There are maybe 3 starters, expected to go late 1st to 2nd round. 2. Roll with a Dodson/Bernard combo? 3. Sign a remaining Vet FA: not a lot of options left, perhaps Cunningham after the draft 4. Adjust the defensive scheme- ie:similar to 2017, do we play a bit more 4-3 OR unlike past defenses, do we switch to dime defense on passing downs (my preference). With such a complete roster, my best guess is Beane goes with Option 1....not ideal, but will be interesting to see how it develops.

I don't agree that we build a team worried about Josh or Diggs being malcontents, if we don't win a SB in next 2 years. Or team psychological impacts/dissension. I've said enough on my opinion. Looking forward to seeing what plays out and the draft.

Gabe or Ed? That's probably another topic altogether. I see your point, and you seem to understand mine. All good, Go Bills!

You talked in certainties, specifically about team dissension (in worse case). You are making up speculation to fit your agenda.

Agree on alot of this, and mainly he needs to get us that SB! But we are very close and key defensive injuries have happened last 2 years. Not an excuse, just fact. Tre in 2021, Hyde/Von in 2022. We need a bit of luck to stay healthy, which is what every SB winner basically needs. Beane has done too much, in short order, and future looks too bright (mainly Josh, but others), to give any time frame on Beane as of now That's just pure speculation. And suits your own agenda to go for it now.

Sorry my point was not clear. It's all about the future cap implications to me. People can have different opinions, or even strategies, with hoe the future cap space should be managed. I'd consider myself 'moderate', not conservative, but realizing we already kicked the can on many high-$ contracts. Voided years on Hyde, Dion, Von, and restructures on top of that. I realize other teams are more aggressive, ie: Miami, possibly Jets with a Rodgers contract. But to me, we've already leveraged enough future cap

You can still go for it now, without tying up more $$$ in the future though. And JMO, people can hate on it, but it would take a BIG mistake to get Beane fired in the next 4-5 years. Big mistake, ie: trading for a 30+ year old WR with major cap constraints in future years. He brought us a young/generational WB, that will be in the MVP running for next 5 years minimum. He didn't have a Top pick to inherit either....he got creative to get us Josh, fix our Horrible cap situation, and get us to be SB contenders in under 3 years. He's missed on decisions, but so has every GM (including Veach, Roseman, etc).

This is short-sighted thinking, that's the point. It's like asking: would I rather drive a Lambo or BMW right now? Obviously Lambo, but maybe I could only afford it for 1-2 years, then have to trade it in and drive a Honda civic (sorry to all Civic drivers) for the next 2 years. OR, I could own and drive this BMW for the next 5 years (with the added bonus it might become a Lambo- you can see the analogy of a drafted player). Maybe a bad analogy, but surely you see the point. On top of that, I'd argue OL/DL improvements have the ability to take us to the next level. This is a team that was schooled in the trenches, multiple times this past season. Protect Josh/give him more time, and add an early slot WR

Or KC is being prudent. It's not just about the cap going up (your prior post), but staying competitive and not handicapping ourselves against the rest of the league. Yes, I'm sure the cap will increase and we can find a way to stay below it. But how much do we sacrifice in the ability to retain talent, attract talent (FA), etc. If we have 8% of our cap tied up in "dead $", that's a 8% disadvantage we put ourselves in, unless every other NFL franchise is doing the exact same thing (which they arent). Trust me, I want the SB victory and more talent, but building through the draft is the key. We already took our shot with a big FA, in Von and with a trade fews yrs back (Diggs). Cheap/talented labor is the missing piece, to long term success. This has propelled Cincy, KC, and even the Jets in recent years. Miami is living in a house they can't afford, we don't want to be in the same spot 2 years from now

I'd recommend going out to Spotrac or another site to look at the #s. But in summary: 1. Mahomes vs Allen: similar cap hits up thru 2028, but less for Pat. Because KC already took a big hit in 2022 2. Rookie contracts: both KC and Cincy have hit on more contributing draft picks. Yes eventually those deals will come due, but they have more flexibility given we have already restructured several high-cost players that puts us in a "more leveraged position" currently. Being more leveraged, as of now, is exactly what Beane alluded to in his FA presser a week or so back. He seemed hesitant to do it again, mentioning it would take the right player and situation...but Dhops deal is probably the most expensive option to take on, unless AZ keeps a sizeable portion above their obligation. I'm just using all available info (cap resources, Beanes comments recently, Beanes psst comments and actions) and making my own logical opinion...it just doesn't seem like a move Beane would make.

It's very easy to understand the basics of cap management and the only available options to fit Hopkins under our current cap, is to restructure more deals (ie: continue to kick the can). What nobody knows: 1. How much future cap will go up 2. How much AZ will retain in Dhops contract, beyond what they are obligated to Everyone keeps saying, "well if it gets us a SB victory...". Who says Dhop is the missing piece? What happens if we do this trade and we don't win this yr or next? It's a risk, and I'm sure Beane and team are weighing that. And yes, KC is in much better cap shape than us...as is Cincy, even after Burrow/potential Higgins deal for the next 2 seasons. This is factual math, just go look up the #s and project Burrow/Higgins as top 3 deals at their respective positions.

Not a good way to plan for the future.... "Worry about the money in a few years....". Sound financial advice right there,LOL. Our cap for 2024 and 2025 is already horrible, doesn't matter if it increases. We will still be behind alot of teams, ie: KC and Cincy, with available cap to improve in FA

Although I think Darnell should be the pick, I think Beane is still going to hold onto hope that Spencer takes a big step...which is def possible. Ideal world (current players): 1. RT: Brown steps up, and becomes our future. 2. WR: Shakir becomes our defacto #2, from the slot, and Harty/Sherfield play above their contract. 3. MLB: Bernard surprises and is ready to be a good, not great, starter 4. OG: Connor plays to his contract, David or Bates solidifies the RG position. 5. DT: Ed has a huge year, in a contract season, and Daquan shows out again. Settle brings more pass rush juice, aka Healthy Phillips If we look at above and say what is least likely to occur/becomes our biggest concern: 1. MLB 2. RT 3. WR 4. DT 5. OG As of now, that is likely our focus areas to align value/need in the draft.

Agree. Beane said he's not against more restructures, but gave the hint he doesn't want to do anymore. By my math: 1. Currently: Maybe we are 9-10m under cap. (Draft likely eats $2m, but this would hypothetically happen after a Hop trade). 2. Tre restructure: saves approx $5.7m 3. Dion restructure: saves approx $6m. But Beane might be more reluctant, given Dion has some potential void years in his deal already. 4. Hopkins: 2023 cap hit is currently $30m, but we'd be on the hook for approx $19m (assuming Cards do NOT retain anything more than required). So in summary: 1. Immediate Cost=$19m 2. Cap status: let's sat $10m under, so we'd need to clear $9-10m 3. Needed savings: we'd HAVE to restructure both Tre and Dion. OR Ed is dealt, OR Cards retain more of the cap hit (likely need them to keep at least $5m more...so we only have to restructure Tre). This is why this deal could be VERY VERY complex to get negotiated, due to cap issues. And would require us to kick alot of cap to future years.

Very little confidence at MLB right now, especially for a team with SB aspirations. RT, I have hope Spencer Brown improves going into year 3. Usually the bigger jump for us, year 2 to 3, and he's getting his QST full NFL offseason (without a surgery). But hope we add at the position in draft. As mentioned earlier, I'm not keen to MLB round 1. Round 2, sure...but it's a risk when there's maybe 3 guys who could start immediately

Another poster discussed earlier, but do we need to be under the cap at the moment we hypothetically acquire Hopkins? For example, he puts us over the cap at the moment he is acquired (prior to him potentially restructuring his contract). If so, we have some options but mostly limited to restructuring perhaps Tre or Dion. Which is probably the "break glass" maneuver for Beane

This would be a great add, at this point. I hate the idea of drafting a MLB round 1. But there's maybe 3 reliable/starting quality year 1 guys...and it's risk assuming they all reach our pick in 2nd round. As of now, I think it's highly likely we draft (in no particular order): OT, DT, MLB, TE, WR and CB. This is a deep class at: TE, CB, and DE . I can't see Beane passing at least TE and CB. Benford then moves to S, and we can be more multiple with 2-TE sets. DE late could be our rotational 4th guy. Getting a stop gap Mlb before the draft frees up BPA even more...Zach might be the last option

You absolutely reek of desperation about this entire thing.... Scrapping to find any random person tweeting about the Bills being involved...then deciding which people tweeting you will believe, now... picking parts of someone's statement and twisting to fit your narrative. At some point you'll wise up and realize this trade won't happen for us, then you can decide whether to blame Beane or understand we have other ways to improve (draft).

Ideal, you find a very good slot and keep Diggs/Davis in their current roles. We should already be improved with: Harty, Shakir (banking on growth), and Sherfield Vs LY group. But, we should still be looking to add a Rd 1 or 2 Wr. Shakir is no sure thing, Harty/Sherf are part timer role guys and Gabe is on final season of his deal. Been saying 50+ pages ago that Dhop isn't worth the cost (cap $s). And we need incremental improvement at WR, and most impactful improvement will come from getting better players on the OL (specifically right side of OL). I'd put the investment into OL and that solves alot of problems at once. Dhop is not the 1 piece to make this team instant Sb favorites again. Get better in the trenches.

What some rationale people have said 40 pages ago... To think this started with: a song, orange juice, people following others on social media (who would ever think), and ALOT of information coming from random sources. This will end with @Warriorspikes51 and @IronMaidenBills blaming Beane for not pulling the trigger on this... meanwhile Beane is likely laughing at all the conjecture and will probably laugh it off at his next presser when asked about it. Critical thinking skills are lacking, instesd we have wishful thinking for days on here

There's alot I disagree with here, just to hit on a cpl points: 1. Offense: we had a dominate offense early in season, not just "good". Not having to punt the ball is proof of that. Yes offense cooled but nobody knows how much is attributed to Josh elbow vs playcalling vs defenses adjusting (probably a bit of all). 2. Tragedy: everyone handles differently, it's a bit harsh to not cut slack for everything this team went thru LY Respect your opinion, just disagree with alot of your views

Cincy will start to unravel in a couple years. Luxury of having alot of superstars, on rookie deals. But kudos to them for building what they have. Yes, KC has diversified their spending/have stars at key positions. This is basically my point. Very few teams actually pay for 2 top-$ WR contracts. That $ is better used elsewhere. I'd be putting more into the OL, instead of Dhop. If Beane bucks the trend, and his own personal philosophy on team building, that would be very surprising to me. Exciting to get Dhop yes, but at a cost that can't be shrugged off as easy as many here suggest.

Let's see I'd Cincy actually pays 2 top flight WRs. Remind me what KC did with their top flight WR (Hill), last year? Neither of these teams are doing an "all in move"/leveraging as much as Dhop would cost. Jets and Dolphins can screw themselves up for the future, hoping that happens. But Cincy and KC have not done what you suggest. Both these teams have acquired great value FAs and drafted MUCH better than us in recent years. That's what constitutes long-term success, and why its paramount we have a great draft.