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No_Matter_What

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    Chiefs v Broncos (Eagles v Cowboys page 23)

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

     

     

    Appreciate the data.  Thanks - and I get it.  

     

    I just think you have a few factors worth considering here.

     

    So ok.  You need a stop no matter what right?  Wouldn't you want to get that stop at the Chiefs own 10 rather then the 25 or beyond after kick off - not a huge deal but they are pinned deep.  

     

    It's the Chiefs.  I'm not betting on getting the ball back.  

     

     

    If the model is correct then everything you mention is already accounted for, that is the point.

     

    First bolded - yeah it si easier to stop them from own 10 than 25, but in first case you lose by 7, whereas in second scenario you only lose by 4. Thats the difference. TD wins the game.

     

    Second bolded makes little sense. If you are not getting the ball back, you already lost the game. They have 4.37min and a good kicker. There is NO WAY you win that game without getting the ball back, thats the point. 

     

    Around the League week 18

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 minute ago, RobbRiddick said:

    My main one is I want the Titans to win. I don't want KC getting a week off and home field. I know we won in Arrowhead but I'd rather play the Titans in their house with a bunch of Bills fans in the crowd than KC , provided we get that far of course

    Agreed. Other than that, I don't know. If Colts win, they are pretty likely to go on Arrowhead in WC, which would be great for us - much better than Raiders or Steelers imo.

    1/9/22 Week 18 Gameday Bills vs. Jets Pregame Thread

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    51 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

    Ill take this outcome...

     

    Bills, Bengals, Titans, Colts, Miami, Raiders all win.

     

    Titans Bye

    Pats at KC

    Colts At Cinci

    Raiders At Bills

     

    We would have the same outcome if the Bills lost and the rest happen too.  But screw that.  Kill the Jets.

    Yeah this would be nice, esp. since I feel we have much better chance to beat Titans in divisional than Chiefs, and there would be 2 chances to knock out Chiefs before we play them. Will not happen though.

     

    Anyway, it does not matter today. Like you said, kill the Jets.

     

     

    Chiefs v Broncos (Eagles v Cowboys page 23)

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 minute ago, clayboy54 said:

    You .gotta give it your best shot. It may not mean anything this year, but you have to try to win.

    They did imo. Kick the FG, stop the Chiefs, score a TD. Almost everybody here says go for TD like it would mean a win - no, it would only tie a game and you would still need to stop Chiefs to win.

     

    I am not saying I am sure it was a good decision but it either was or at least it was much much closer than people here are making it to be.

     

    Woould love to see some analytics on it, I hope it gets posted later.

    Falcons DC Dean Pees calls young NFL coaches “entitled” and “spoiled”

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    6 hours ago, WhoTom said:

    I don't know - I get an "old man yells at cloud" feeling from his little tirade.

     

    He creates a false dichotomy with respect to analytics by assuming that the only thing the coach looks at is the spreadsheet. I'm sure they're taking into consideration the weather conditions, how the offense and defense are playing, who's on the other side of the ball, etc. It's not an either/or between those factors and analytics - they're just adding the analytics to the equation.

     

    Back in my day, we didn't dis other coaches. 🙂

     

    Yeah unfortunately I don't think he understands what analytics means. Somebody should tell him that weather/score can be easily accounted for.

     

    Again, this reminds me of my poker days. You could explain all the maths to some old school live players and they would argue some nonsense based on their limited experience.

    • Agree 1

    All-22 Grades for Bills/Falcons (The Athletic)

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by No_Matter_What

    6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

     

     

    I know.

     

    Nothing but crap players on this defense that is #1 by a large margin in terms of yards allowed, #2 in terms of points allowed, and #3 in defensive DVOA, which is adjusted for quality of opponents.

     

    They really just need to blow up this defense because the players suck so bad.

     

     

     

    It's a shame indeed that apologists, who could also be called people who talk sense to wackazoids, are needed.

     

    But the bottom line is that for whatever reason a group of total nutballs have latched onto Edmunds as their whipping boy. It makes no sense, but that's the reason that sensible opinions are needed.

     

    He's a very good player. Not elite, but very good. The Bills love him. It's why they took up his 5th year option. It's why he's captain. But yeah, this group of frothing fans aren't worried about making sense. These fans are looking for a guy with a specific style, which Edmunds does not have.

     

     

    Right. I never stop wondering how this defense can be so good with so many bad players, including MLB who according to some lacks everything to play the position and is a pure liability.

     

    To be clear, I don't pretend that I am capable of objectively judge his play but it seems quite clear that this coaching staff has significantly different opinion on TE than most fans here.

     

    I am already looking forward 100 pages long thread when we re-sign him.

    Burrow NOT playing Sunday - per Burrow

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 hour ago, FFadpecr said:

    This is the worst possible news for the Bills.

     

    They will go 1 and Done if they get the #3 seed and go up against the #6 seed Colts. Bills are not beating the Colts this year.

     

    Even if the Bills do miraculously beat the Colts, they get the #2 seed Chiefs in the Divisional round instead of the AFC title game.

     

    Being the #4 seed in the AFC >>> being the #3 seed in the AFC this year. It's a double whammy 1) avoiding the Colts in Round 1 and 2) avoiding the Chiefs in Round 2

     

    The Bengals are tanking this game on purpose to get that #4 seed. The Bengals would much rather face a Rookie QB in the 1st round, and then dodge the Chiefs in the 2nd round. 

     

    No, this is the worst possible news; Bills will be 1 and Done in the playoffs.

     

    As the #4 seed, Bills would have beat the Pats in Round 1 and then beat the Titans in Round 2, setting up AFC Title game rematch.

     

    Now, as the #3 seed, Bills are going to lose to the Colts in Round 1. Colts are the single worst possible matchup in the entire AFC for the Bills.

     

    How is this good news at all? You are not thinking straight.

    Why don't you post more? Your endless optimism is sorely missed here.

    • Haha (+1) 3

    Harrison Philips: how important is it for the Bills to re-sign him?

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

     

    Klein will be gone unless he takes a Mario Addison esque pay cut. Extending Edmunds isn't a can kick move it is a retaining your own talent move (one that a lot of fans won't like but one I am ever more convinced the Bills will make). The only thing you could describe as a can kick is Diggs and even that... really this is the natural year to talk to Diggs about an extension anyway based on how the existing deal is structured. The dead money for Sanders is already counted. 


    I think all those moves can get them to $25-30m in space. You need about $8-9m for draft picks and contingency. Yes they have a few decisions to make on Levi, Isaiah, Harrison, Siran and Bates (Bates is an RFA so under team control). They also have a decision to make on whether to try and extend Dawson Knox early. But there is lots of ways to make all of those things happen if they so wish to. 

     

    Remember the Chiefs went into 2021 with less than $1m in space and signed the top offensive linemen on the FA market, traded for another starting OL and signed an expensive defensive tackle in FA too. 

     

    The Bills can still make any move they want to this offseason without needing to really weaken what they have in order to do it. They can't make every move they might want to make in an ideal world but nor can anyone. The Bills have room to re-sign the five guys I listed above, and extend Dawson Knox and still bring a couple of difference makers in through free agency if they want to. I doubt they do bring all 5 of those guys back but if they wanted to the space is there. As ever it is just decisions over what to prioritise. 

    Agree with all of this but at the same time I agree with @Thurman#1 that I wouldn't call this situation "they can do whatever they want". I do agree they can sign almost whoever they want but if it is really a big name then it might the only bigger FA signature.

     

    Doing what you mention gets them over $30m in space but with only 35 players signed, so you need 18 more. Even if lets say 15 of them are rookies and cheap players up to $2m hits these guys still take $18-20m, and you don't have much room left. I also guess they will want to keep Wallace and Phillips and I don't think Beane will be able to sign Wallace for less than §4m cap hit first year. We also need backup QB who might be more expensive than Mitch this year (or otherwise he may really suck, which I don't prefer). This is very far from "they can do whatever they want" in my book.

     

    But they can sign big name or two, thats for sure. But bolded is really maximum what they can do (provided that "couple" means literally two) and it will not be easy imo. 

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