JGMcD2

High-ceiling premium player is entirely different than a core player… And how do you measure a core player? How do you determine if they’re a high ceiling premium player?

Where was this comment when they fired a coach who had been on staff since 2017 and replaced him with Joe Danna who has no connection to McBeane? 😂

Well what's the measuring stick then Coach... you didn't give one.

Since Beane took over drafting in 2018: 61 players who have entered league have been named to at least one All-Pro team Remove Special Teams players from that group then the number drops to 43 players named to at least one All-Pro team Account for only premium positions (QB, WR, T, DE, CB) and the numbers drops to 22 players named to at least one All-Pro team QB - 3 WR - 7 T - 3 DE - 3 CB - 6 3 teams have drafted multiple All-Pro players at premium positions since 2018 Atlanta - Calvin Ridley (2018) and AJ Terrell (2021) Dallas - Micah Parsons (2021), Trevon Diggs (2020) and CeeDee Lamb (2020) San Francisco - Deebo Samuel (2019) and Nick Bosa (2019) 2 GMs have drafted multiple All-Pro players at premium positions since 2018 Dallas - Jerry Jones (Will McClay) San Francisco - John Lynch Thomas Dimitroff drafted Calvin Ridley and Terry Fontenot drafted AJ Terrell Based on the Bills draft position from 2018 - 2022 Brandon Beane had the opportunity to select the following players without sacrificing acquiring another All-Pro Player at a premium position: Josh Allen (HE DID!) DK Metcalf (Over Ed Oliver and Cody Ford) Calvin Ridley (Over Tremaine Edmunds) - Suspended from NFL Jaire Alexander (Over Tremaine Edmunds) Deebo Samuel (Over Ed Oliver) Maxx Crosby (Over Ed Oliver, Cody Ford, Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox) J.C. Jackson (Entire 2018 Draft excluding Josh Allen) A.J. Brown (Over Ed Oliver and Cody Ford) - Traded away before becoming an All-Pro w/ Tennessee Let's not pretend like these premium players grow on trees and are easy to identify. 2/3 of them were 1st round picks that we didn't even have a chance to acquire, and the group listed above had an ADP of the 50th pick... meaning everyone passed on them at least once... including other top tier GMs.

Publicly available... are you shelling out $200 for me to get a PFF subscription? Weren't you also complaining about All-Pro not being factored in... must have conveniently glossed over the Pro-Bowl and All-Pro multiplier used in AV.

I didn't create DrAV... it's listed on PFR. I'm finding the value a team is extracting compared to their peer in a given draft. Not comparing across drafts... it's in comparison to the available talent pool in a given draft. Again, if you have a better publicly available stat let me know. Be sure to let publications like the Washington Post and The Athletic know too...

Ok but I'm not using weighted AV? I'm using DrAV...

Highest concentration of them is in the top 10. You're lucky if you find one after that in RD1... you're REALLY lucky if you find one after RD1.

Known bad value according to whom? What value should be used to measure instead?

Well you just proved that you didn’t read how this was done… I’m not going to explain it all over again just for you. If you’d like to go back and understand how it was done you’re more than welcome to. At that point I’ll be more than willing to hear your criticism. FWIW the Bills are actually penalized for Wyatt Teller because he didn't have that success with them... they received a negative point value for Teller. Ed Oliver received a positive score albeit nowhere close to 29... it was around 5 or 6 points.

Except it’s based on something that measures a football player’s performance and we are talking about football players and their performance in the context of the draft…. It’s far more reliable than your anecdote of salaries and colors or your personal opinion of “2 great players and a handful of good ones.” Also, this isn’t intended to be a “predictor” of anything… it’s an evaluation of the past. Nobody implied this was perfect. Why don’t you tell me how you’d go about objectively measuring past draft success?

If they weren’t very good what does it say about the other teams that are graded on the same scale?

And this was born out of statements exactly like this… other teams aren’t doing much better or better at all. They were very good 17-19 and middle of the pack 20-22. What’s wrong about that?

Are you saying Douglas has drafted well outside of this year? Because that’s just not true.

Elam is TBD. Showed signs of being a good/great pick - we knew it was going to be an adjustment. Rousseau was actually a REALLY good value for where they picked. They can't really control much else. Only way the Bills would have gotten a significantly better player was if they picked in the top 12 picks that year. Oliver was over-drafted but isn't a bad player - not awful value but not great either. Edmunds is better than OK. Not going to turn this into a Tremaine Edmunds thread. Allen was a home run. I'd have to look, but I'd argue RD1 has been better than OK when compared to the rest of the league.

Joe Burrow and Joe Burrow's torn ACL were the best things that could have happened to CIN. They've been not so good otherwise. You have Pratt, Bates and Hubbard they've found but 2/3 need to get paid this offseason. Once Burrow, Higgins and Chase all get paid in the next 1-2 years I think they're in much worse shape than we are. This isn't even taking into account Eli Apple, Von Bell, Logan Wilson, DJ Reader, Jonah Williams, Hayden Hurst and Tyler Boyd. Even Perine and Mixon.

I had another analysis (somewhere can't find it right now) breaking down the last 4 drafts by number of Pro Bowl players drafted... essentially because of a dumb tweet saying the Bills hadn't drafted a Pro Bowler since 2018, which meant to internet GMs they're bad at drafting. Only 5 teams had 3 or more in the last 4 drafts (DAL, TB, LVR, PHI, SF) Over half the league had 1 or less Less than 5% of all draft picks have been Pro Bowlers in the last 4 drafts (48/1030) Of those 48 players selected the Bills had the opportunity to select less than 50% of them. 52% of Pro Bowlers in the last 4 drafts were selected in RD1 and the average pick they were selected was #10 overall The Bills average selection in the last 4 drafts has been #29 overall It's REALLY difficult to find those standout guys - especially where we've been drafting.

It’s harder to draft at the back end of RD1. It hasn’t been great and KC doing it better hasn’t helped. It also hasn’t been a disaster that some are making it out to be. This year’s draft class was actually pretty good and will jump up over time as they continue to play. We’re going to look back in a year or two and have multiple quality starters - Elam, Cook and Benford + Shakir should be an above average contributor.

Drafting in the back half of each round is going to have a big influence on that.

Updating my analysis of league-wide draft success for the third time. I'm linking the previous two versions here as well as including updated charts based on some requests I've received. The old posts below explain the methodology and provide a snapshot of where teams stood at those points in time. 2021 League Wide Draft Success 2017-2019 - A Follow Up - The Stadium Wall Archives - Two Bills Drive 2022 *UPDATED* Draft Success - Measured by AV - The Stadium Wall - Two Bills Drive 2017 - 2019 2020 - 2022

Funny you mention that… I broke that down recently. I’ll update my post some time this week. If I recall correctly, they were #1 from 17-19 and #11 from 20-22.

No… you did it for every pick. You just picked out 2-3 guys that have done better than the player we picked and ignored the other 30 or so that didn’t… that’s just now how it works. I poured hours into an actual analysis and have kept it updated over the years. Contributed plenty on this subject.

Lmao. Seems like a solid way to evaluate… cherry pick 1 player drafted in the same round that has some sort of NFL success.

Everyone goes crazy because Mixon went 154 for 4TDs and another 58 and 1 receiving against Carolina Week 9. Which was like 20% of his total production all year 😂