JGMcD2

If they weren’t very good what does it say about the other teams that are graded on the same scale?

And this was born out of statements exactly like this… other teams aren’t doing much better or better at all. They were very good 17-19 and middle of the pack 20-22. What’s wrong about that?

Are you saying Douglas has drafted well outside of this year? Because that’s just not true.

Elam is TBD. Showed signs of being a good/great pick - we knew it was going to be an adjustment. Rousseau was actually a REALLY good value for where they picked. They can't really control much else. Only way the Bills would have gotten a significantly better player was if they picked in the top 12 picks that year. Oliver was over-drafted but isn't a bad player - not awful value but not great either. Edmunds is better than OK. Not going to turn this into a Tremaine Edmunds thread. Allen was a home run. I'd have to look, but I'd argue RD1 has been better than OK when compared to the rest of the league.

Joe Burrow and Joe Burrow's torn ACL were the best things that could have happened to CIN. They've been not so good otherwise. You have Pratt, Bates and Hubbard they've found but 2/3 need to get paid this offseason. Once Burrow, Higgins and Chase all get paid in the next 1-2 years I think they're in much worse shape than we are. This isn't even taking into account Eli Apple, Von Bell, Logan Wilson, DJ Reader, Jonah Williams, Hayden Hurst and Tyler Boyd. Even Perine and Mixon.

I had another analysis (somewhere can't find it right now) breaking down the last 4 drafts by number of Pro Bowl players drafted... essentially because of a dumb tweet saying the Bills hadn't drafted a Pro Bowler since 2018, which meant to internet GMs they're bad at drafting. Only 5 teams had 3 or more in the last 4 drafts (DAL, TB, LVR, PHI, SF) Over half the league had 1 or less Less than 5% of all draft picks have been Pro Bowlers in the last 4 drafts (48/1030) Of those 48 players selected the Bills had the opportunity to select less than 50% of them. 52% of Pro Bowlers in the last 4 drafts were selected in RD1 and the average pick they were selected was #10 overall The Bills average selection in the last 4 drafts has been #29 overall It's REALLY difficult to find those standout guys - especially where we've been drafting.

It’s harder to draft at the back end of RD1. It hasn’t been great and KC doing it better hasn’t helped. It also hasn’t been a disaster that some are making it out to be. This year’s draft class was actually pretty good and will jump up over time as they continue to play. We’re going to look back in a year or two and have multiple quality starters - Elam, Cook and Benford + Shakir should be an above average contributor.

Drafting in the back half of each round is going to have a big influence on that.

Updating my analysis of league-wide draft success for the third time. I'm linking the previous two versions here as well as including updated charts based on some requests I've received. The old posts below explain the methodology and provide a snapshot of where teams stood at those points in time. 2021 League Wide Draft Success 2017-2019 - A Follow Up - The Stadium Wall Archives - Two Bills Drive 2022 *UPDATED* Draft Success - Measured by AV - The Stadium Wall - Two Bills Drive 2017 - 2019 2020 - 2022

Funny you mention that… I broke that down recently. I’ll update my post some time this week. If I recall correctly, they were #1 from 17-19 and #11 from 20-22.

No… you did it for every pick. You just picked out 2-3 guys that have done better than the player we picked and ignored the other 30 or so that didn’t… that’s just now how it works. I poured hours into an actual analysis and have kept it updated over the years. Contributed plenty on this subject.

Lmao. Seems like a solid way to evaluate… cherry pick 1 player drafted in the same round that has some sort of NFL success.

Everyone goes crazy because Mixon went 154 for 4TDs and another 58 and 1 receiving against Carolina Week 9. Which was like 20% of his total production all year 😂

There I fixed it for you 🤣

Did you mean home or dome? The Bills NEED to build a dome to protect against severe winter storms that result in driving bans.

He’ll be too expensive unfortunately. I love the talent, but I can’t stand the guy.

Daboll literally had to move up to the booth because he was awful on the sidelines and realized it wasn’t going to work for him or Josh. If you watch Giants games he loses his ***** frequently. Here’s a quote from Derek Anderson around when Daboll moved up to the booth. For years, Anderson tried to convince Daboll to call games from the booth instead of the sideline. In Anderson’s mind, coaching from that perch had multiple benefits. Daboll could see the game unfold, but it also distanced him from the emotionally charged setting down below. “He’s just such a competitor on the sidelines,” Anderson said. “It’s hard for him to kind of take a break in between series and be like ‘OK, that series is over with. This is what we’re going to do next. When he’s in the box he can’t get too caught up in those emotions. It makes the communication easier and then it keeps him away from the chaos a little bit and keeps his head clear.” The irony about this, is he didn’t really feel comfortable about moving up to the booth UNTIL WE HIRED KEN DORSEY. Yes, that’s right. Ken Dorsey spent multiple years on the sideline as the guy to relay information from Daboll and help keep Josh grounded. When the Bills hired quarterbacks coach Ken Dorsey in 2019, Daboll was finally able to relinquish control and move to the booth. And Buffalo’s offense has reaped the rewards. I actually really liked Daboll when he was here, but the rose colored glasses people are wearing with the guy now that he’s gone are weird. https://theathletic.com/2324003/2021/01/15/brian-daboll-bills-coaching/?source=user_shared_article

Yup! No more pretending he’s anything more than a top 3 QB in the league and generational talent that’s on pace to end up in Canton.

You’re right. Expecting you to have points to support your statement was ridiculous of me.

Thanks! Words have definitions for a reason. I apologize for properly using them.

Well you can’t use the word regress and not have data? Winning or losing next weekend isn’t really a good barometer to determine regression or not.

Hold up… let me do your research for you? If you’re going to make a comment like this… at least have some evidence to back it up. Don’t just guess.

Interesting… they’ve been over 60% for 3 seasons. I’m not sure you can argue there’s been any significant regression. 2020 - 61% (12th) 2021 - 66% (1st) 2022 - 60% (9th)

Care to expand on that comment?