Tough question to answer. My gut is telling me we're looking at 9-7 again...but what I'm really unsure of is if it will be enough to get in. I...I'm going to say 'yes', and rather then backing in, I have a hunch a key Week 17 victory, perhaps an upset, gets them in.
Last year's team overachieved, yes. But let's not overlook the positives of that. Be it coaching, heart, or a combination of the two, they did more then looked possible on paper. Nothing saying with the same coach and changing culture that doesn't happen again and this team pulls a few more surprises.
Tyrod is an anomoly, the ultimate baseline. He is a die that only rolls '3' or '4'. He kept some games close, but when the game neared the end if we were behind he couldn't give us the high rolls we needed. He took us as far as be could, and will do well in Cleveland, where 8-8 would be adored. We hit TT's ceiling, and when Cleveland finally does, their rookie should be ready. That being said, we don't know what AJ will bring. There is a very limited body of work to go by, and it doesn't include Bills' players, coaches, or schemes. What he does give is a chance to be better then TT and the risk of being worse.
If nothing else, I'm hoping he's willing to throw deep. Keep in mind McCoy was running uphill. Having a star running back and a QB that only throws short makes defense easier. You put eleven players, a couple cheerleaders and an assistant coach in the box and dare TT to throw deep. Hopefully AJ, if he's playing, will at least stretch out the D and make the offense less predictable.
For every game we barely won thanks to turnovers or such, there were games we barely lost, such as the Panthers and Bengels. I think we're going to gain and lose ground in equal measure this year, but our long-term outlook will look better. And, if nothing else, I think it will be entertaining.