Tyrod's friend

On any individual roll of the dice you can be right or wrong, but the complete odds are taken by the long view. Point of fact, NFL GMs are better now than they ever were. Beyond that, they are using valuation analytics, algorithms and probabilities that you couldn't fathom. And even still, looking back, the NFL gets it right. The most value is provided in order by the 1st, then 2nd and then 3rd round. You could get one right, sure. Welcome to the world squirrel.

No, no it isn't. You don't have true game tape. You see what the TV camera angle provides you. On a passing play, you have no idea where the safeties are or what they are doing. In most cases, you don't know the underlying defense or the purpose of the offense in a particular play before the snap. You might think you do, but you don't. You don't have access to the analytics that they do, the computers that grind out probabilities. It is the height of arrogance to suggest even for a minute that you can do part time, what a professional scout does full time with the power of a multi-million dollar organization can do full time.

You don't even know THAT much. The Jets could draft Josh Allen. The Giants are widely thought to be happy with Webb; Browns can only take 1 QB and they need defense. Denver signed Keenum to a 2 year deal. If necessary, we are the only team left that can outbid someone if that was is seen as needed. So we can move to 7th, take the QB that fits OUR team. Our HC and GM came from a place where the QB was a mobile, strong armed guy that threatened the opposition. They had a great linebacker. You don't know. Is it probable? Maybe, but maybe the only guy they really liked all along was a 4.35 40 QB. Maybe they valued Roquan Smith over all the QBs in the draft. Maybe they see a way to get both those guys and end the trauma. And in every post, I'm going to say this: There are 8,000,000 NYers that do not have a high opinion of the Jets FO. What makes you think they did the right thing this time? Because believe me, as a former NYer, I can go right down the line and tell you how stupid they are.

By pick #3? No, not even close. I mean, so far from close it's absurd. Even if you are talking the third QB taken, it's not necessarily so. C'mon. Watson 2017 Prescott 2016 2015 <none> 2014 Carr 2013 Smith>EJM feh no choices 2012 Wilson > Luck Cousins> RG3 I could go on and on but why? it's so stupid it's ridiculous. Do you want to go down the line on all the QBs in the draft? Ben? Brees? Brady? Cousins? Gimme a break.

There is considerable noise that the Jets want Josh Allen. Look at the two QBs the GM has on the roster from drafts in 2015 and 2016; they are mirror images of Allen. So now what? The Giants either trade with the Broncos - who clearly love Rosen - or the Browns have a choice to move back to us or trade with the Broncos. Ain't over til it's over, bud.

The Jets outsmarted him. From a long time NY City boy, you have to know just how funny you sound putting the words "Jets" and "outsmarted" together. Especially in a case like this ... where the GM screwed the pooch on this position so many times its absurd that he's still employed. He drafted the schmucks on the roster (Hack/Petty) that he's now going to have to cut. instead of offering Cousins enough to not look back, he let him get away then, instead of having a plan to offer a Pro Bowl QB, a playoff starting QB real money at $18MM, he spent $15MM on two backups. finally, he overspent to move a couple of draft picks - presumably to take Josh Allen. The draft capital used could have been sufficient to truly stock his team with good talent, direly needed. All told, the Jets will have sunk the SIXTH overall pick in the first round, FOUR very high second round picks, and a fourth round pick to resolve the QB position, and their solution is presumably Josh Allen for all that time spent. Outsmarted. OK. Yeah. I'm worried about the Jets.

So the only way you can be generational is "win" the Super Bowl, is that it? The 2012 draft was a remarkable year. DeCastro was the sixth rated player by at least the NFL Tracker. Idiots like you screamed about how you can't draft a Guard early in the round and the Steelers took him 24th. He helped to transform that team and extend Ben's career; his blocks enabled Bell's running. Maybe taking him sixth was too high - but enough meaningless players were taken ahead of him. In a very real sense, DeCastro "won" the Super Bowl. If Quinton is truly "generational" and he plays to that level, plays like a Larry LIttle, plays like a Steve Hutchinson, plays like Alan Faneca, he's worth a top ten pick. Especially if the QB is as some say nondescript.

If I recall correctly, at least one of them has been outstanding - David DeCastro.

when it comes to faith, I think it is fair to remember when he addressed the press - abruptly called, I might add - he must have surely known the trade either had happened or was about to. The greater likelihood is that the presser was called to "get ahead" of the trade. The Indy GM said the trade was for all intents and purposes concluded by Wednesday because he made calls on Monday and Tuesday. We know this surely, because any GM thinking of a trade would have contacted your GM to assess whether or not he would have gone "Ditka". In retrospect, much of his comments come off like "the dog ate my homework". While Beane & Co. have never lost my faith, there was a considerable amount of manipulation going on there and it sounds like you want to avoid coming to grips with that.

Glad to see so many people condemn the poster. But an awful, awful lot of you posters have suggested that ultimately Beane and McDermott should be fired or would be because of the failure to move up. Funny how those posters won't bear witness now to what they've said.

Agreed - almost straight down the line. Perhaps the point I was meaning to get to ... was that Beane needed to "get out in front of this train". Whether or not the Colts facilitated it I suppose is some guesswork on my part. I just find it pretty odd the timing, right? One day Beane is in front of the NFL saying he wasn't necessarily moving up, then the next day practically the Colts are announcing the trade. If the Colts were working on that trade on Monday and Tuesday, it was put to bed by Wednesday. There are two teams he's really talking to and its Denver and the Jets; we get a call just to make sure Beane isn't going to pull a Ditka.

Yeah, well I guess we'll never know.

Putting some time line things together: The Colts GM said he was talking about this trade on Monday and Tuesday and in fact had been speaking with the Bills - although indirectly, he had discounted them because of #12. At the least, Beane new about this trade before the presser. I'm not saying it means a lot, but it puts things into a different perspective. For one, it makes his commentary about not spending much time on draft evaluation in a different light, doesn't it? It sort of comes across as an excuse, like the dog ate my homework, don't you think? And in knowing that the trade might be ready to be announced, it says to me that not trading down, staying put, was something that occurred after that knowledge that either the Jets or Broncos had decided to move up. Finally, the presser certainly seemed "all at once". From this perspective, it's not unnatural to think that Beane might have asked his Colts counterpart for just a day to get ahead of the trade announcement, in order to save face. Some assumptions going on there, I know, and I am a bit of conspiracy sort of person. But still ... when I think about what was said, in relation to the timing of everything ...

I think this is true - you can't rely on Jackson getting past Arizona, Baltimore and San Diego. There's very little likelihood the best linebackers fall to 22 either. Thankfully it wouldn't take a lot to move up from 22.

What is comical is that the Jets blinked for the third time, in less than a week, at the same position. They didn't sign Kirk Cousins - holding their offer at $30 when another $1 or $2MM probably gets it done. OK, maybe he signs for a winner but at least he was considering them. They then sign $15MM worth of backups, instead of just spending some reasonable money on a guy that's led his team to the playoffs, then They overspend to move up 3 spots to get the QB they should have handled the first time, or could have handled the second time ... but now have basically stripped away any possibility of rebuilding internally. I keep saying it and Buffalo fans have no comparison. The NYJ haven't been to Super Bowl since Joe Namath strictly because they have a culture of being stupid. They've never, ever been right in moving up into the top ten to make a pick. If you fear that McBeane was outmaneuvered by those clowncar occupants then take yourself out to the corner and shoot yourself. You are an idiot.

Over ... Tyrod? No Manning? No Keenum? No McCown? Yes Bradford? No McCarron? Yes Tannehill? Maybe but unlikely Doubtful that he'll "start week 1". You don't typically pay someone between $16 and $25MM and have him sitting on the bench.

Was everyone else drafting asleep? Good draft!

because the NFL doesn't have any success stories of QBs that were either the first or second taken off the board. or alternatively, where the first or second QB off the books wasn't a complete bust. MOVEUPMOVEUPMOVEUPIVERUNOUTOFIDEASMOVEUP

Is that a bad thing? The two of them are healthy, successful NFL QBs. I don't care how good you are as a backup QB - if the guy in front of you doesn't get injured or doesn't supremely suck, you own the clipboard. Neither of those guys is/were great, but they are in the upper middle strata of the NFL and ain't nobody replacing the vested interest with 4th or 5th round backups.

LOL. Yeah, I've been pretty vocal about standing pat. More than just a little bit. But there is no doubt in my mind that Jackson won't last past 12 - he might not be there at 12. In a dozen days, Lamar will run and likely post up a time somewhere around a 4.35 or 4.4 40 ... and all of sudden, this fan board is going to light up like a Christmas tree about how wise our GM was to position himself where he did. That's okay. Let the moaners and chicken littles have their day. The moment I feel that the NY Jets front office got the better of ours, will be that time that I re-think the curvature of the earth.

PREACH IT.

I'll start with NFL tracker. Their scoring has correctly led to the first QB taken pretty frequently, and I think their first two have always gone 1-2. They score Darnold 7.1, but all of the remaining QBs between 6 an 6.1. (By the way, the drop between Darnold and the next guy is the largest in the last five years. And the drop between all other players available, and the second best QB is ridiculous.) Ok, ok, I can hear it now. Nobody likes NFL Tracker, and Chris Trappasso is an idiot. How about Mayock? He's fairly indecisive about choices - tends to like a lot of them. Rudolph is clearly not in the mix but the others are close. I've listened to every Waldman review of all the QBs - he's not really decisive, although he likes Rosen a lot. It's clear he can't stand Allen, but then again he gives a LOT, I mean ALOT of love to Jackson whom almost no one else considers in the mix. That's what I've read, seen and heard. I know there are plenty of people that do a lot more research here than me. But I don't think I'm far off in saying there's no clear cut, blemish-less QB.

I think they just saw Taylor as limited - right? How do you sit him and play Peterman any other way? I mean, they experienced Cam; Daboll ran an offense with Jalen Hurts, a running QB (although he might have preferred the passing QB, given the post season game). When I see Taylor throwing the ball, I see Newton. A flick and the ball is gone. Not always perfect, but enough so and a guy that transforms the game. Fearless. Able to throw over the middle, had good footwork in the pocket, competitive to the nth degree. End of the day, Jackson is one of the QBs to play an Erhardt/Perkins offense and that should be what we expect from Daboll. There's just too much smoke there.

'xactly. Consider: out of the top six QBs (including Rudolph here), probably only 3 are NFL quality starters. More than likely, if we draft a QB in the first round he will get more starts than all the other 1st round QBs combined. No matter who you draft, the other guys are sitting behind Proven Veterans. Yet staying in place, adding possibly two more Pro Bowl type starters to Tre and Dion, and being one year removed from the playoffs for the first time ... that's going to result in firing Beane and McDermott. Not to mention, yes, possibly getting that franchise guy at 12. Nobody knows, because the differences between all the QB prospects are widely, widely agreed to as being slight. There is no clear cut Andrew Luck out there. Sky's falling. Better get out of the way.

I agree. But almost by definition he is either taking a QB at 12, or not planning on taking one until the third round or so. Takes big, big, big brass balls this year to do something like that. I just have this feeling that Jackson is in play here at 12. Senior, competitive as all get out, leader, fast. Not quite Cam Newton but the same problems for a defense. Whatever. I'm not about to freak out about the plans of a GM that universally was admired 8 hours ago, especially because the original Clown Car manufacturer from the Meadowlands made a move.