Tyrod's friend

This was a nice try, but short. Manning, Wilson, Favre - not one of them improved in the pros. In fact, Favre regressed after his first pro year. I don't know what t f you are talking about with Eli; his last year in college he posted 62 and he really hasn't been at 62 for his career. Wilson makes my case for me, not you. If you do not demonstrate an ability to complete passes in college, it is nearly impossible for you to learn that ability. You CERTAINLY will never suddenly leapfrog what you do in the first two years. Completing passes is something that is remarkably consistent. If you've been looking at profootball, and you are suggesting this is not true, then you are being deliberately obtuse. I've run this over and over again. Unless there is a system change, you do what you do. Montana is the proof here as well; he goes from one type of offense to another, jumped up in completion rate and then spent his next nine years his completion rate is 63.3 and his lifetime is 63.2. There isn't improvement in Montana. He was the embodiement of a brand new offensive system. Any player is capable of a one year outlier - Montana hitting 10% greater than his norm. But that isn'st sustained improvement.

I'm sorry ... I must have missed the point where this is relevant. Are we playing football this Sunday? /end snarkiness with apologies. We've got a QB right now that has a career of completing the ball at a 65% (an ability he transferred with him to the pros), of not turning it over, of passing downfield, that is intelligent, a film rat and a team leader. He fits the coaches approach like a bespoke suit. Those are not traits that go anyplace. I'm not expecting a rocket arm, but the things he has already shown are not "system" skills. Argue if you'd like. Stomp your feet. I don't care and I'm not worrying. Or don't. Brew over it. I'd suggest Intelligentsia, whole beans and a French press. Cheers.

Can this even be a question? I'm not a huge fan of the crotch-grabbing, look at me antics. But Baker Mayfield is going to have one helluva NFL career, right out of the gate.

Really? I dare you to come up with some names. Because most QBs do not change their completion percentage much at all. Just as an example, the third best QB in the history of the league had his best completion percentage in his first year, and wasn't able to get it back that high for 12 years. In my lifetime, Dan Marino had a one year wonder in his second season. But that's all it was; the rest of his life he completed roughly the same percent his entire career. Jimbo - Kelly had a two year jump, but it was system related. Brees, system change, but his career within various systems was remarkably consistent in his entire career. The only reason Peyton jumped was because the team was 3-13, but after that his completion percentage was remarkably consistent. It's just bull. It's things fans like to tell themselves. As Mantle once said, "Those that can, do. Those that can't, teach." Big name QBs have the ability or they aren't big name.

You can look at the numbers; you can look to see who is doing what in what context, then see how the better professionals were doing at the same time. Numbers aren't everything. They just are not nothing. In 1983, the best completion percentage belonged to Ken Anderson at 67%. In 2017, the best completion percentage belonged to Drew Brees at 72%. Both of these guys were about 10% better than the median of the next ten guys. The comp, between a college player and a pro player isn't to say they should be Ken Anderson and Drew Brees. It should be to the median of the next ten guys - because that is where they are going to be in the professionals. And by the way, you are right - Brees had a 61% completion rate at Purdue. The top NFL completion rate the year before he went professional was Warner's near 68%. The next nine were between Griese at 64% and a group of guys at roughly between ... 60.8 and 62.5%. Just to repeat, completion percentage isn't a whole lot without the context of an offense. But if you put the ball in the air a lot, push it downfield a lot, and complete the ball a lot to those guys downfield? Uh, yeah. You got a pretty good shot. And those are numbers.

Please keep in mind that I am not interested in average QBs, I make a point to differentiate "better players". While I wasn't specific, I was looking at the players that roughly would have been in the top ten. Let's look at your blanket statement about players "getting better all the time". Wilson, most of his career: 64.7. BTW, never really increased his completion percentage, and last year was a definite outlier. Little standard deviation for most all of his career. Brees, for the first six years, 64%. He didn't suddenly improve his accuracy after 2009; it involved a system change. Then after that point, he was consistent again between his 70.6% and last year's 72. Again, the numbers after 2009 are remarkably consistent. Tom Brady in reality has had next to no change over a long career. He has had outlier years, but his 63.9% completion percentage is within 1.2% /- of his entire career. Philip Rivers, 64% completion rate in his first six years. Not much standard deviation there really; and at this point in his career, its a 64.2% increase. Very impressive in his ability to improve. Dan Marino, moved from completing 58 to 64% of his passes from his rookie year. But from his rookie year until 1992, he completed on average 59.2% of his passes. BTW, it compares with a lifetime 59.4% of his passes. Shall we go on? Peyton Manning: on a bad team his first year. But in between that year and his next to last season? He completed 66% of his passes between 2000 and 2014 and I think you'll find the deviation there is around 1% plus or minus the entirety of his career. Eli? The meat of his career he completed around 59% of his passes again, +/- 1%. His career average is 60% and he did improve the last four or five years, which brings me to ... You should be careful using a player that had no statistical background really and using him as an example of "improving". I'm not sure if the fan base is willing to wait for a QB to be in the league for 15 years like McCown to suddenly bloom. I mean, the Giants did wait 12 years. But let's say this: after leaving college, McCown was pretty consistently poor in the NFL and in his first full go-round he completed 57% of his passes. Not terribly far from his college days when he was also an underperformer in the area. History and Brees: There is always someone who blows up the end of a distribution curve, isn't there? That's why you have a curve. But in 1983, Ken Anderson at 67% was a full 10% better than the middle of the top ten, when most of the better players were posting up between 64 and 60%, which is precisely what I was saying. Remarkably, Drew Brees was around 10% better than the meat of the curve, which last year was roughly 65%. But I digress from my point ... the next 9 guys in the NFL completed between 58 and 64% of their passes in 1982. Marino and Kelly's college statistics would have fit in quite nicely in that group. A few years later, they in fact were in that group precisely. Side note: Kelly leapt forward in 91 and 92 as we all know. And as we all know very well, that was the height of an offensive scheme change. Regarding YPA isn't nearly as relevant as YPC. And context is always relevant. I discounted completion percentage as a relevant stat. Idiot - I wasn't talking to you in particular, but I'll stand by my comments generally. Muscle memory and severe reps are important and they really don't change things a lot. Giving people hope that a QB is going to suddenly leap forward? Pfff. You like to use the phrase outlier, and I'm good with that. It happens, one or two guys make a leap and they capture the imagination. But the core of completing a pass? Of whether or not you are comfortable downfield or not? Not so much. I'm betting that the two best QBs from this draft are the ones doing the things that we expect an NFL QB to do, doing those things a lot and successfully. And one of them won't be Josh Rosen. Edit: I'll add this ... yes I am around this board a lot saying McCarron will surprise most fans. It will surprise me no end if McCarron doesn't beat the best single season completion rate in our team's history by 2%. All he knows how to do, is put the ball in someone else's hands far away from himself. It's all he's ever done. It's about muscle memory. Things don't change in that regard. They. Just. Don't.

First, can we stop with the lunacy of looking at guys that played the game 30 years ago? When will a pitcher get a 1.12 ERA or a batter hit .400 again? Why can't I compare Wilt Chamberlain's stats with modern players? C'mon. That said, I wouldn't say completion percentage is more important. It is more common place, and hence more relevant. When Marino and Kelly were completing 60% of their college passes, the better players in the NFL were completing around 63%. They were close. Today, a guy in college completing 56-58% of his passes would compare to better players completing between 65 and 72%. It's significant. Beyond that WTF cares about completion percent, especially in a world where some guys are throwing shuttle passes in college to the RB? Look at relevant stats that you would use to consider a QB, like YPC or YPA. And just by the way, from that lens Baker Mayfield is a full standard deviation better than players like Rosen and Darnold. Rudolph isn't far behind Mayfield, and both Mayfield and Rudolph compare very favorably to professional players. If you think that muscle memory, and making literally thousands of in-game attempts, won't affect your progression against substantially better competition, you are an idiot.

Assuming that Bradford plays a full year. How is it that 12th pick in the draft equates to the 6th or 7th best QB in the draft? And how in the world do you know that for Buffalo and our brain trust, that Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph has always been the desired outcome? Stop being chicken little, drink some decaf and don't overthink this whole thing.

I'll say this: if you start anywhere from a position that a 6'5" guy built like a brick shithouse, who has among his best traits being able to throw the ball long ... has a weak arm? ... check your premises. I'm sure Mason Rudolph has a big enough arm to play in the NFL, and beyond that who knows.

This, and ... And whether the juice is worth the squeeze to get to the top 3. There's a world of difference between saying Rosen > Rudolph, and comparing Rosen's excess value over Rudolph minus the cost of moving up to Rudolph, right? They've no doubt calculated a range of outcomes and a likelihood of the outcomes and the cost of acquisitions. Multi-billion dollar corporations don't operate on "gut" or what they'd like. But I have to believe they are only a very short time from having those values decided.

When they were backups, you are saying that Garrapolo's numbers were a whole lot better than McCarron's? Really? Yes, SF. In NE? NFW. Both completed a high percentage of passes. McCarron threw 2 picks, Garrapolo none. Numbers weren't that much different. I'm not saying they are equivilant players now. But you don't just get to make up numbers when they were backups.

Trading Lawson is trading a 1st round pick, a cheaper 1st round pick. Combine it with 12 and 22, the Giants are getting 3 #1 picks. I think they traded JPP and are eyeing Chubb, though.

I don't think there's enough of a sample to make a conclusion. Really the game changed in 2012 with the rookie cap change, and from where I sit, you're a bit nuts to draw any conclusions about 2 years of football. I mean ... does anyone here know if Watson or Wentz are going to return 100%? Wentz is a violent player and not every big QB gets to play as long as Big Ben. Mahomes hasn't thrown a truly meaningful pass yet. So you have 2012-2015. Call back in 2021 and I think you can make a decision.

On the whole I agree with much of what you've said elsewhere ... but if that was all it took, to get 1 overall, then yes. Because if you are right, you are doubly right. You not only get that ONE guy at that ONE position, you also deny him to your divisional opponent and get presumably the next gen for your division at the time the Big Dawg is seeing a setting sun. With another 3 second round picks and coming off the second best 2017 draft, not to mention $100MM in cap space in 2019 ... it's playing chess instead of checkers. But only, only to take the first QB off the docks. Its too much to pay for a 6' QB that grabs his crotch at #4 or #5.

I understand Illinois stopped being a part of the lottery system. Although on a longer term, it's proved that lotto benefits the state the variations of returns could have bankrupted the state. I agree in general with your post and the OP but we could soon venture into deep waters. "Trusting the process" means you have to have enough political capital built up with the ownership and with the fans to suffer setbacks. The Pegulas themselves - with the failures of both franchises - have little left in town. Best HC since Marv Levy and the best GM since Polian. Plenty of rope from me.

We have a long and proud history of naked athletes. Let's call that deep DNA.

and straight down the line he backs it up. What I found remarkable is the every single player we've acquired has an attributable quote in NFL Draft Tracker. You might that is nothing, but from what I've found somewhere around 1 in 10 or 1 in 15 player profiles say anything around character.

I would say quite the opposite, and the Bills have already made that plain although not explicit. The most talented players both of offense and defense (well, maybe among them) were both shown the door last year in Darius and Watkins. Given the choice between Rosen, Mayfield and ... let's say Rudolph the pecking order would then be Mayfield, Rudolph and Rosen. Which of these is not like the other ... Not necessarily. But a couple of the quotes are clear. The last quote is on Baker Mayfield. There is a quote there on Kyle Lauletta; I don't think the Bills would resort to drafting him, but he shows the right qualities. I'm betting that Desean Hamilton gets his name called on the last day if he isn't drafted. NFL Tracker didn't have a similar style quote associated to Shaqueem Griffin (one handed LBer), but I would think he's the sort of committed person that meets this idea. http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/profiles/kyle-lauletta?id=2559882 http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/profiles/daesean-hamilton?id=2560019

All from NFL Draft Tracker. So for Murphy and McCarron, I used excerpts from when they were drafted.

"symbolizing success and selfless attitude on and off the field" "Well respected in the program and scouts rave about his character" "I love watching him on tape. You just know he wishes he were bigger so he could hit even harder." "He earned his degree in only three years, however, so he transferred " "You might as well throw out this year because the guy was in a ton of pain all year ...playing with braces on both arms at times" "Tough, smart and hardworking with a throwback personality. Leader vocally and by example. Will hold teammates accountable and represent the program with class" "mature leader. Smart and articulate. Highly competitive team leader -- holds teammates accountable." The quotes above covers each of most of the newer players on the team. You can read between the lines the process is about establishing the culture, and the DNA of the New Bills. It shows up with players celebrating on the sidelines and when we trade away admittedly selfish, talented players like Sammy Watkins. You wind up missing on a lot of talent if you are committed to the process. You put yourself in a position where you simply won't overpay, because that is part of the process. You establish a value for everything and you stick to it. FWIW ... here's some things that are being said about seven potential draft choices this year: "I'm still kind of bothered that he hasn't corrected some of the same issues he had last year" "Man he is a different kind of guy altogether. Has a lot of edge for sure. Love his toughness and his grit" of course we know this guy "quell concerns surrounding leadership and coachability early on in order to establish a strong first impression and get his career off on the right foot" "In this job you deal with some really good guys and some not so good guys. He's one of the best. I think he goes undrafted, but I also think football is going to be a very small part of what he accomplishes in his life." "He's exactly what you are looking for in terms of his work ethic and how much he loves the game. " Heralded by scouts as team leader and elected team captain twice "Tough and competitive. Plays with fiery demeanor and massive chip on his shoulder. Teammates rally around him on and off field." All our new players - all of them, including Murphy and McCarron - played a full slate in college. As you look at who you think the Bills will make any move to get, I gotta say if they don't fit that profile they don't get to Orchard Park.

I'm perfectly fine with whomever this FO wants to draft. Count me as hopeful Lamar Jackson comes to Buffalo, without us bankrupting this draft or multiple ones to get another QB. I'm also fine with Mr. 36-4, 62 more TDs than Ints, led my team to the playoffs and then nearly won, AJMcC. He's a guy cut from our DNA and he's going to fit in that locker room like a bespoke suit. Yep. He'll fit perfectly into what McD wants.

So you are going to base his "NFL performance" on a three game stretch where he came in cold, in the winter, while his team was on a playoff stretch and his OC likely restricted to playbook ... in a stretch where he was playing two top flight defenses? Then started a playoff game and put up 16 points in the fourth quarter against the Pittsburgh defense? Wow. Very reasonable of you. I mean, all he did was to get his team to the playoffs, then put them in a position to win a game against a great franchise. Seems about right. And oh yeah ... parts of the rest of the league decided to pay Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford ridiculous amounts of money considering their circumstances. I wouldn't be cheating off of their paper, if you get my drift.

If you want to use the NFL ranking? I think it's roughly on par with Mason Rudolph, not quite "The Savior" Josh Rosen. A 5.7 generally is good enough to land a QB in the late second round.

First round QBs are given huge, huge opportunities to fail. The likelihood that they are going to give up their jobs, other than to injury, to a back up is pretty small. The bias is to the status quo. At the end of the day, a backup that produced numbers like Brandon Weeden gets three starts, not 19. Manziel did everything but take a dump in front of the stadium and they were still giving him time.

You're already wrong on a number of these; I'm not going back over them. It doesn't happen "all over the league all the time" and it certainly doesn't happen when the starter has a huge contract/was drafted in the first round. It doesn't, I've shown how you are wrong with your examples. out.