DCOrange

I love it when people say a prospect will be a bust because somebody that played at the same school in a different era in a different system for a different coach with a different skillset and a different personality was a bust. Very logical.

And also his insane elusiveness in the pocket

I’m in love with LSU’s RB.

Not eligible yet but he’ll be a top 5-10 pick next year probably (or at least be projected that way going into the year).

Man Joe Burrow’s ball placement is insanely good.

Would have to look at the film for that, but pass rush win rate is based on beating your man before 2.5 seconds, so based on that, it would seem Phillips generally picked up his sacks on slower developing plays where coverage held up or pressure from other players forced the QB to step into Phillips.

Oliver is already ahead of Phillips in terms of pass rush win rate: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27584726/nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-rankings-2019-pbwr-prwr-leaderboard Top 10 DT Pass Rush Win Rate 1. Aaron Donald, Rams, 25% 2. Grady Jarrett, Falcons, 22% 3. Chris Jones, Chiefs, 19% 4. Maliek Collins, Cowboys, 16% 5. Quinton Jefferson, Seahawks, 16% 6. Calais Campbell, Jaguars, 15% 7. Ed Oliver, Bills, 15% 8. Denico Autry, Colts, 14% 9. Matt Ioannidis, Redskins, 13% 10. Vita Vea, Buccaneers, 13%

He generated pressures at the same rate in Miami as he does here. Just so happened to have one of the all-time outlier seasons this year with almost half his pressures turning into sacks. I'm not really convinced he's a great pass-rusher, and he certainly isn't a great all-around DT.

He's top 3 on our team at DT. Nowhere near that relative to all the DTs in the league though. He or his new team will be in for a rude awakening IMO.

I like him, but if he's going into negotiations thinking top 3 money is actually his starting position, I can't imagine a deal getting done. He's going to have to give in wayyyyy more than that. I wouldn't want to pay him half that personally.

It might be haha

I came away from these videos a lot more impressed with Pittman than I expected to be and kinda lukewarm on Higgins. Think Van Jefferson could be a good value play if for some reason we don't draft a WR early.

Maybe a flukey run, sure. I think any of this year’s playoff teams are technically capable of a fluke run. I don’t think our offense is near good enough yet to be a serious contender. But more importantly, I don’t think players from other teams view us as a contender regardless of whether you think we are or aren’t.

Gotcha. Very cool, good work as always!

Going to be more nit-picky about this one because I care more about addressing this position than the rest: Realistically, I think Amari is probably in a tier all by himself. He's a border-line elite WR; none of the other tier 1 guys (besides maybe AJ if he comes back healthy) are in that discussion. Not sure if the draft grades are yours or from somewhere else, but I think Aiyuk is generally considered a 1st-2nd round prospect (probably more 2nd round) and Tyler Johnson is definitely not considered a 1st-2nd round prospect at this point. As far as trade candidates go, this is purely speculation on my part, but I wouldn't be surprised if the following guys are available: Sammy Watkins (but highly doubt we'd be interested), Brandin Cooks, Alshon Jeffery, Corey Davis. As for what I would personally do: I'd try to trade for one of the guys mentioned above (obviously price depends on which guy you're getting, but I think they're all worth pursuing). Assuming we do not acquire any of those guys, I'd aggressively pursue AJ Green. With his age, we can likely overpay him on a short-term deal. He checks every box we're looking for and it would be easy to get out of his contract when we need to. I would also be fine with Robby Anderson if McBeane thinks he's fine personality-wise. Assuming we have AJ Green in hand already, I'd turn my attention to the draft. If Ruggs or Lamb make it to our pick somehow, I'd take them. My guess is those two, Jeudy, and Higgins are all gone though. In that event, I'd be fine with skipping WR in the first round and seeing who makes it to our 2nd round pick. As of today, I'd be happy to get Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, or Brandon Aiyuk in the 2nd round, though I wouldn't be surprised if any of them end up being gone by our pick anyways. We'll have to circle back on this as the draft gets closer and draft stock changes. I'd also be in favor of scooping someone up on Day 3. Basically, come out of the draft with someone that can potentially turn into an X WR and someone that can turn into a Y to develop behind AJ and Cole. Basically, the end result is: X: AJ Green Z: John Brown Y: Cole Beasley Backups: Rookie, Duke, Foster I suppose we can bring McKenzie back if we want, but $2.1 million for him is a little much IMO. I'd be pretty happy to just roll with the guys listed above.

I would guess he doesn't view us as that kind of team, but guess we'll see this offseason.

Long way to go before the draft, but at the moment, people seem to think hell be available on Day 3; maybe even late on Day 3.

Yeah, I'm not sure I see that speed personally but that's apparently what the NFL teams have listed for him in their database. He did say that the junior times tend to be less accurate than the seniors so with Higgins being a junior, he could end up being off a bit. We'll see soon.

I asked Dane Brugler about the 40 times he lists on his big board at The Athletic. He gets them from NFL teams. He has Higgins listed at 4.47 and Shenault at 4.55.

NFL teams expect him to run in the 4.4s. Doesn’t mean he will but that’s what they’re expecting.

NFL man...Green Bay challenges that there was a fumble. Refs overturn the call, agreeing there was a fumble. Green Bay loses a timeout as a result.

I don't REALLY think he'll fall to the Bills, but I'll say one of Jeudy/Lamb slides out of the top 15 and I would lean towards Lamb being the one.

Re: Perriman, can't say I trust him much either. Bucs fans were begging them to cut him earlier this season to try to get a compensatory pick because he was flat out terrible. He had a few impressive games at the end of the year; do we want to give him a contract based on a few games or the few years that preceded them?

People seem to be having a hard time separating PFF's grades from standard statistics that PFF tracks. In this case, their focus is on pressures; similar to point differential being a better indicator for future wins than current wins, pressures are a better indicator of future sacks than current sacks. This is an objectively good article from PFF and they're right to be at least decently skeptical of Phillips. He had fewer pressures this year than he did in his 0.5 sack season; it's definitely concerning as people seem eager to give him a big contract. I don't think it really makes sense to re-sign him honestly; Oliver is probably better right now/is certainly the one that we want starting moving forwards, and ideally, only one of them would be on the field at a time. So it doesn't really make sense to make Phillips a top 10-15 paid DT to play a part-time role; it just isn't a good use of our cap space.

I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he’s the 2nd WR taken honestly. He’s likely the fastest WR in the draft and has a much better skillset than the speed guys usually do.