MJS

Sounds like you are a witch with a crystal ball. Just have to see how it plays out, stranger. They aren't picking him to be the MVP. They are just saying that the past 4 MVP's also happened to lead in this particular metric. Admittedly, it's a pretty small sample since they only go back to 2016. I would say Rodgers has the leg up this year and he doesn't lead. But there are still games left to play.

Gains can't exceed original length.

For now.

Here's what I found: "Expected Points Added (EPA) is a football statistic that seeks to measure the value of individual plays in terms of points. This is done by calculating the Expected Points(EP) of the down, distance, and field position situation at the start of a play and contrasting it with the situation at the end of the play." So they somehow have calculated what the expected points would be for every situation on the field and then measure that against what actually happens. It's a strange metric, but it does not seem subjective.

Here's an article on NFL.com that compares the next gen stats of some of the top MVP candidates. They specifically mention "EPA" as a leading indicator of who will win the MVP award: "In every season of the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016), the leader in total pass expected points added (EPA) has won the MVP award: Matt Ryan (+184.0) won in 2016, Tom Brady (+132.9) won in 2017, Patrick Mahomes (+195.1) won in 2018 and Lamar Jackson (+132.9) won last season. Entering Week 15, the 2020 MVP race had seemingly narrowed down to two candidates -- and the field mirrors the leaders in total pass EPA. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+163.7 pass EPA) and Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (+151.3 pass EPA) are comfortably ahead of everyone else -- the next-closest is Bills quarterback Josh Allen (+89.0)." ... Josh Allen Pass EPA: +89.0 (3rd) Rushing 1st Downs: 35 (4th for QB's) "Allen is in the midst of a true breakout season, leading the Bills to the brink of their first AFC East title since 1995. He's currently third in the NFL with +89.0 pass EPA after having -70.3 (third-worst) and -33.4 (12th-worst) in 2018 and 2019, respectively. It's clear that Allen has made big strides playing the QB position in each of his three seasons. He's declined his deep-pass percentage (10.0% in 2020) and air yards per attempt (8.4 in 2020) in both seasons since his rookie year. He's also improved his downfield passing accuracy and production in each season. His completion percentage over expectation on passes of 10-plus yards in the air has risen from -10.5% to -2.9% to +7.6% from 2018 to 2020, while his yards per attempt has gone from 8.2 to 9.4 to 11.1 in that span. Allen has also improved his touch when on the move. His +4.3 completion percentage over expectation when passing on the run (moving 8-plus MPH) is sixth-best in the NFL; in 2018 and 2019, Allen ranked second-worst. Allen's improved passing on the run allows him to take full advantage of his athleticism and couples well with his rushing ability. On the year, Allen has 350 rushing yards (eighth among QBs), six rushing TDs (tied for third) and 35 rushing first downs (fourth). Allen's athleticism, paired with his vastly improved feel for the QB position and accuracy throwing the ball, have the Bills looking like a legitimate Super Bowl contender." ~ Matt Durisko/Associated Press https://www.nfl.com/photos/next-gen-stats-compelling-figures-for-top-mvp-candidates#b2db149e-9b54-4d32-bd22-5a853c5ef2aa

Their entire history of QB's is just sad. Their best QB was a guy who lost more games than he won and threw more INT's than TD's (although that was a different era).

So you're saying that the whole "bulletin board material" type of motivation stops happening for players and teams when they are good? Wasn't Thurman famous for taking slights at every little thing and turning it into motivation? It's not about needing it. But it's real. It was real last week when Juju danced on the Bills logo. You also see it ALL the time when players play their former team.

I think breaking the playoff drought was much bigger and more emotional for a lot of people. And the way it happened was just incredible. By this point we expect the team to be good. Most of us expected the Bills to win the division this year. For me to get emotional it would have to take a Superbowl win. Even then, I don't know if that's a natural response for me. But I'll be super excited!

There was a time during the drought I would have been happy to take Gruden, but I'm glad he stayed in his cushy network job.

I wanted Mariota as a backup in the off-season. But yeah, Carr would be a great backup too.

Gruden isn't great. I think his problem is narcism and an inability to adjust to the new NFL.

Because he's a terrible coach and should never have been hired because he isn't even remotely qualified.

They added the rule awhile ago about lowering your head to initiate contact. Doesn't matter if it is the QB or not. But that looked a little weak to me, honestly.

My money is on a tie. Both teams don't seem to want it.

It's just comical. Lynn should have been fired ages ago.

Good old Zay Jones.

I'd be looking for an NFC team, if I were him. The AFC is looking pretty stacked now. But I don't know how picky these guys can be when NFL head coach jobs are such a rarity.

It was pretty crazy.

The Bills played the Rams and Steelers at home. Two of the best defenses in the league. They played the Chiefs at home in a bad weather game. I think the evidence is circumstantial. Tough opponents and weather played a factor.

Does it? I've not heard that before. Oh no! Is McDermott going to start grumbling and giving the press the stink eye?

I'd like to see them with red on white sometime, if that's even allowed. Not sure.

You brought up browsing people's profiles and coming to conclusions about them based on their political postings, right? And that gets projected on the fan base.

I agree totally on the first part about Bills fans being thin skinned. I don't quite see eye to eye with you on your point about political enlightenment. So you're saying that if you look at a few profiles of Bills fans and they happen to lean a certain way politically that it makes sense to condemn ALL Bills fans? Nobody in their right mind would do that. Right? That's just a supremely small sample size. You could spend weeks looking at profiles and not even scratch the surface for a fan base, especially the LARGE portions who don't even regularly use social media.

Yeah, well it's twitter. Twitter is the home for idiots to voice their idiot opinions to the world. Certainly you have those for Bills fans and fans for all other teams as well. But ... I do fear that Bills fans in general are getting a little annoying. They attack anyone with a contrary opinion (doesn't matter if they are right or wrong) and they just seem to have really thin skin. And they enjoy rubbing it in other people's faces when they are proven right. That's supreme annoyance, right there. And of course the majority of fans aren't necessarily like that, but the twitter group of fans seems to be, and those are the ones seen and heard. And, I see it getting worse as the Bills get better. Like they see a need to unload their multi-decade frustration on everyone else. So if things continue, I think other fan bases will quickly see Bills fans as the worst, most annoying fan base in the league (albeit a charitable bunch). Now, making assumptions about Bills fans and their political leanings and if they are or aren't racist is taking it way, WAY to far. And really dumb. You can't make broad sweeping judgements about any large group of people like that. Doing so just makes you look dumb.

Nope. Not even if the franchise agrees to force everyone to wear hazmat suits.