Billsflyer12

I didn’t like the tweets, but get he was young. I wanted nothing to do with him because he was a bad college QB. Hope he proves me wrong on both accounts.

As a guy whose mind is wired for data and numbers, I certainly appreciate that not all minds think the same way. There are times I wish my mind didn't. Maybe the best example I can think of is buying a house. You find a house you love, most people then look at price, comps, Sq Ft, school rankings and many others pieces of data that paints a picture. At end of the day some use that data to form a risk analysis that tells them weather it is a smart investment. Others will just look at the house they love and say who cares, we can fix the house up and help fix up the neighborhood, we can make it better. I guess neither is right and wrong. I prefer to use data, to form a picture that increases my probability of success. It is not 100%, like any data there are outliers, I hope Josh Allen is one of them.

Adjusted Completion Percentage = (Completions + Drops) / (Pass Attempts – Spikes – Throwaways – Batted Balls – Balls disrupted by a QB hit)

Yet, he ranked 101st out of 133 qualifiers in adjusted completion percentage in 2016.

Is this Context? Good news is there are a couple of comparable that say it may work. Almost all say it won't.

I have posted this and a couple of other write-ups, not sure a single person has actually opened and read them. Was wondering the percentage of posters here like or believe in data and stats, looks like most don't care.

If true, he is terrible at it.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/5/17046116/2018-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-josh-allen-sam-darnold-projections-hype

With Beane and McD, one now must ask if potential draftee or signee fits into their “faith, family, football,” and unfortunately it may be in that order.

I am equaled annoyed that if you at all question your teams decisions, you are not a real fan. Fandom is not blind loyality and shouldn’t be. I am not huge fan of Beane or McD, and I hate the Allen pick. I vented for a couple of days and explained why I hated it so much. Yet, I am moving on. I don’t have the energy or desire to keep fighting something I can’t change. The Bills have been my team for 45 years. It never has benn, or will never a be unconditional. I will not like hires, picks and game plans, and that is ok. I will voice my concerns when I feel they are really a true concern. My excitement for the future took a big hit Thursday, but at end of day I will still be watching Sundays from here in Colorado.

But 1st round QB draft picks don't get time to learn. I hope Im wrong, but almost every data point says otherwise.

Wentz has yet to get to 4 years, they did mention Goff, as one who has recovered in NFL from one year to the next. Even if 1 or 2 outliers do come about, doesn't prove theory wrong. The chance that all of these QB have generally reached their statistical ceiling in college is overwhelmingly high.

The article specifically states why they use the first 4 years as a benchmark along with other details in the paragraphs that follow.

But the data out there says your theory is not true. Of the 38 QB drafted between 2010-2017 that have thrown at least 300 NFL passes, NONE of them have exceeded their college success rate in their 1st 4 years in the pros. (1ST 4 years used as that is their rookie contract length). In other words their college numbers are their ceiling. https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/5/17046116/2018-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-josh-allen-sam-darnold-projections-hype

Your eyeballs told you that Allen was a better QB then Rosen or even Jackson?

Another myth.

So how then are we suppose to judge college QBs?

Just about ALL of them. https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/5/17046116/2018-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-josh-allen-sam-darnold-projections-hype

Add me to your list. Allen will go down as one of worst QB picks ever. 1. Josh Allen - F 1. Tremaine Edmunds - B 3. Phillip Harrison - C 4. Taron Johnson - F 5. Siran Neal - D 5. Wyatt Teller - C+ 6. Ray Ray McCloud - F 7. Austin Proehl - C

History and data show that of the 38 QB drafted between 2010-2017 that have thrown at least 300 NFL passes, NONE of them have exceeded their college success rate in their 1st 4 years in the pros. (1ST 4 years used as that is their rookie contract length). In other words their college numbers are their ceiling. https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/5/17046116/2018-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-josh-allen-sam-darnold-projections-hype

Not interested in dragging this out, as I am pretty sure we are not going to change each other minds, and that it ok. Appreciate the civil discussion. 2 questions. Do you think Josh Allen is a better QB then Josh Rosen? Do you think Josh Allen is better then Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes? Bills could have picked any of them.

Not yet, if ever.

Am aware of the CSU stuff. I am not a Ram fan, just send the checks to them.? Allen has 2 300+ yard games in his career in the Mountain West, 1 was a 3OT game and the other against Gardner Webb. He as more sub 100 yd games then 300+ Yd games in his career. Rosen had 12 300+ yd games and 5 400+ yd games in a power 5 conference. This is not close, read that article, compare stats to Rosen. Taking Allen was not a football decision, it just wasn’t. As far as the tweets, it is far from a “nothing burger.” I have raised 5 kids, 3 boys and my 13 year boy was like, “why would he use those words”? I don’t care if he was quoting anything, he can’t use those words. Does that mean he shouldn’t get a second chance, no. But does that mean I want him on the Bills, no, as I hated and called out the Incognito signing. I put my $ where my mouth was also, haven’t bought any gear, haven’t flown home to watch any games and I haven’t purchased Sunday Ticket since. Taking Allen over Rosen was not a football decision. No reasonable, objective look at the records, stats and data can say otherwise. Hey, the Bills can choose who they want for whatever reasons they want, but so can I with my choices and $.

I too now live here in Denver area from WNY. I also have 2 boys attending Colorado State, so am pretty familiar with Mountain West football. I respectfully disagree with your about Allen. I don’t think he was ever good in his college career. There is not a number out there from his career that says he will be a good NFL QB. It felt so much worse that they selected Allen with Rosen on the board. Comparing the two QBs football wise is really a joke and they played almost the same amount of games in their college careers. The article I am including in this post was really good and eye opening with its depth of analysis. All of this was BEFORE the tweets came out which I find inexcusable. So taking Allen over Rosen was not a football decision, because the choice football wise is not close. But yeah, at least the Bills still have their “process” and their “football, faith, and family” right? https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons