freddyjj

39 sacks over the past 4 seasons seems like good production to me. Puts him in top 10 in league range.

Could we see an EJ vs Sammy Watkins matchup versus KC. It's been a strange trip for both those dudes since 2017 preseason trade.

I agree. I believe that the Bills only scored once on the jet sweep last year in 2nd week vs Giants. McKenzie went around the end for a 14 yd TD. The Bills really had trouble scoring on the ground in red zone outside of the 9 rushing TDs they got from Josh Allen. The RB2 position will have to pick up the slack here and between that player and Singletary we have to hope for improvement from our running game in the red zone.

Thanks for a great tool for analysis here DC! So Tyler Johnson as a slot. Mims or Claypool as outside WRs. What I see based on numbers and meetings.

The fact OBD grabbed Addison, Quinton Jefferson DE/DT from SEA and traded away their #1 pick speaks volumes of their assessment of the DEs in the draft. Can't see them taking one at 54 unless one of the top 3 guys drops dramatically. Robinson, Greenard or Anae in Rd 4 are a possibilities.

Sorry for your loss. Our prayers offered up for you and yours. God bless

Yeah Gore was ineffective running from our Jumbo sets. Our Red Zone TD % actually dropped from 60% in 2018 to 56% last year. Our inability to score via the run (other than Josh) was a big part of that. OBD has to be looking at a RB2 via FA or the draft who is good in short yardage, Goal line and 4 Minute offense. The Bills should be sitting on more leads in 2020 late in games and it would be nice to be able to run even when the other team knows it's coming.

# 58 RIP. Great player and a better man.

OBD has an analytics team in their employ and I trust they are looking at trends in the league to see where they need to improve. Beane is on record saying the Bills need to score more points offensively in 2020 in order to make the playoffs and advance once there. So what would be good scoring goals for the Bills in 2020? As many of us learned in 2019, the Buffalo Bills made the playoffs based on the strength of their defense and their soft schedule. They were aided by the fact they faced some teams who were minus their Starting QB (Pitt, DEN) and others with less than stellar QB play. Granted the Bills rested their starters in Week 17 and fell to the Jets, but for the regular season they scored just 314 points (19.6 ppg) while yielding only 259 (16.2 ppg). They were one of only 5 teams in the AFC who generated a positive scoring differential at +55. This was primarily based on our #2 ranked scoring defense (16.2 ppg) as the Bills offense (19.6 ppg) was 23rd in the league, and the worst scoring offense of all 12 teams in the playoffs. I wanted to see what the other 5 AFC Teams that made the playoffs averaged by excluding the Bills numbers. There were some outliers with BAL averaging 33.2 ppg on offense and NE yielding only 14.2 ppg on defense. The only playoff team with a negative point differential was HOU at -7. This was because HOU gave up 385 points or 24.1 ppg on defense. The Bills, on the other hand, were hampered by offensive production. 2019 AFC Playoff teams - Excluding the Bills The other 5 AFC playoffs teams (KC, BAL, NE, TEN, HOU) averaged 27.3 ppg scored in 2019. Those same 5 teams averaged 19.1 ppg yielded in 2019. Their average scoring differential was 8.2 ppg. BAL at 15.6 ppg and NE at 12.1 ppg really skewed these results. Given the anomalies that were the BAL offense and NE defense last year, I ran the NFC playoff team numbers too. 2019 NFC Playoff Teams The 6 NFC playoff teams (SF, SEA, MIN, GB, PHL, NO) averaged 26 ppg scored in 2019 Those same 6 teams averaged 21 ppg yielded in 2019. So for comparison, looking at the 2019 Playoff teams only: 2019 2019 2019 OFF PPG DEF PPG PPG Diff Bills 19.6 16.2 3.4 AFC 27.3 19.1 8.2 NFC 26 21 5 Some items of note as it relates to OBD. McDermott was on record in preseason and early 2019 season about the need to score 21 ppg to win. Based on the numbers above, that goal is not high enough. I wrote a detailed analysis last year stating that the Bills would need to score 25 ppg to assure they make the playoffs in 2019. I think that is a realistic target for OBD again especially since the acquisition of Diggs and the moves yet to come. So the Bills need to score 25 ppg or 400 points in 2020. If Josh takes his passing TDs from 1.33 per game to 2 per game then this yields an additional 74 points scored. In 2019 The Bills scored only 13 times on the ground with Josh Allen scoring 9 of those. The RBs scored only 4 TDs on the ground. OBD will have to look to increase this RB output to .75 TDs per game. That would yield 8 more rushing TDs on the year or 56 more points. If Josh gets 8 TDs (.5 TD per game) and the RBs get 12 (.75 TDs per game) then the Bills will have scored 49 more points on the ground next year. Taking 49 points on the ground and 74 via the air yields 113 total points increase in 2020 or approximately 7 ppg. This would get the Bills to 23.2 ppg. A small increase in FGs or some defensive scores (Bills had none in 2019) should account for the additional 1.8 points needed to get to 25 ppg scored. Defensively, I doubt the 2020 Bills can duplicate their Points against achievement again in 2020. The fact they draw KC, SF, SEA, TEN and PIT means some higher octane offenses with better QBs in 2020 and some shootouts. A slight regression to the mean would yield an 18 ppg or 288 Points yielded in 2020. It would be nice to score 400 and yield 288 as the result is a scoring differential per game of 7 points. We all might be able to enjoy the games more with a larger lead. Let's hope the draft and remaining FA acquisitions help the offense make the necessary improvements on 3rd down, in the red zone and in the passing game to get these results. Go Bills!

Well we passed on Ebron in his draft year, 2 years ago and again this year. That tells me something. Kroft, Knox and Sweeney/Smith will be an improved group if they get preseason to practice. Same OLine, scheme and better WRs to pull coverage away

Wow I guess I don't see it. Ebron had 1 good year as a pro in 2018. Had 11 TDs with Lions with Stafford as his QB! Has averaged $1mm per TD scored in his career. Can't or won't block, questionable hands and big price tag.

His is not a big cost for a key role in our hybrid Pats offense. Pats were stymied when Develin went down last year. Not sure if lee Smith or Sweeney could play this role.

My sleeper is Michael Warren from Cincinnati. Had 2600 yds rushing and almost 500 yds receiving for 36 TDs the last 2 years. 5'9" 226 lbs back who led NCAA in percentage of yards gained after contact last year. Nickname is "The Truck". Could be had in 5th or even 6th rd. Rush Rush Rush Rush Rece Rece Rece Rece Scri Scri Scri Scri Year School Class G Att Yds Avg TD Rec Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD Career Cincinnati 2017 Cincinnati FR 12 54 324 6.0 1 5 57 11.4 0 59 381 6.5 1 *2018 Cincinnati SO 12 244 1329 5.4 19 25 232 9.3 1 269 1561 5.8 20 *2019 Cincinnati JR 14 261 1265 4.8 14 21 153 7.3 2 282 1418 5.0 16 Here's excerpt from NFL Combine draft overview by Lance Zierlan Overview Burly, interior runner who faced his fair share of foggy boxes and early traffic but used footwork and contact power to create yards for himself. Warren's touchdown production is a product of build and running demeanor. While he lacks the burst to consistently gain yards outside the tackle box, he should be able to keep doing his thing between the tackles thanks to vision, footwork, balance and power. He has pass-catching talent and can be activated as a basic route runner, but isn't trustworthy enough in protection to secure third-down duties. He has a shot as an early down backup with short-yardage ability who can grab a catch here and there.

I am warming to the idea of Claypool as he offers a real mismatch physically and has good ST playing experience.

Lmao here. RBs are a dime a dozen. Base 4-3 ends have a run stop job to seal the edge and rush the passer on passing downs. Murphy is not a rock star but is a solid rotational NFL player. Can't say Penny is the same. Pass here.

The Search feature is your friend Believe your concerns and 6 dozen responses included already

Gore was seldom used in the 11 formation they used in back half of season. When he went on field we lined up in heavy formations more often. As a result lots of 8 or 9 man boxes. He was in when they knew we were running (short yardage, goal line or 4 minute drill). Not a lot of lanes to run through and he was too slow to run outside by design. That's why there will be a new compliment to Motor in 2020.

Bill, they have to come around to be able to have the babies. We clear now?

I share your concerns as well. Below are my thoughts on what might be transpiring. Important to note that the entire right side - Felciano, Ford and Nsekhe played injured for most of the season. Ford and Feliciano were hampered by shoulder injuries and both had repairs done after season. Nsekhe went down twice with foot/ankle injuries and missed a portion of the season. Also Waddle missed entire year. OBD must seem ok with tackle given inactivity to date. If they bring Waddle back cheaply they will have 3 RT candidates with NFL starts under their belt and let them fight it out. Another topic to ponder. The new CBA will allow them to dress 48 (including 8 OL) and carry 2 PS players on active roster each week - taking it to 55. Those PS players can be moved back and forth freely - no waivers exposure. Bates and Boettgerr are PS eligible again and they may draft a developmental OT talent.

Euchre? I could never play that game cuz I couldn't spell it. ?

Quartney David WR Texas A&M

I am aware of that too. Just love folks that say picks after x round are worthless

So you are aware Diggs was a 5th round pick. As was Tyreek Hill.

fact check here... David Johnson was all-pro in 2016 and did have 20 TDs but only 2116 yds from scrimmage. Still a great year

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/transactions/ Why reinvent the wheel. Exhaustive list with sort feature