SCBills

What is a “pro-choice” voter? You mean single issue voters? No, they would never. He’s not trying to get them. He’s clearly making a play for suburban women that may like his policies but are turned off by his personality and “reproductive rights”.. he’s attempting to take the latter off the table. Dems just put up billboards in PA today saying that Trump will ban IVF and are all over social media today messaging on abortion and IVF. It’s the only non-character issue they have on him.

Politically speaking, as I’m pro-life and not in love with Trump’s comments yesterday.. it’s notable that D heavy hitters are out in numbers today pushing back on his newfound IVF policy and abortion comments. Looking at polling on abortion in AZ, NV, PA and MI, voters almost 3:1 want to protect abortion access, but also view Trump as better on the border & economy. If they lose the “reproductive rights” wedge, Trump might take all of those states. He does this by risking to alienate more socially conservative voters in NC & GA. But, while I don’t like it .. I think he’s making a political calculus that seems backed up by notable Dem messaging today.

Let’s say they aren’t first gen migrants and are here legally .. Isn’t this a big part of the issue over in the UK? Second generation migrants who become disillusioned with society and then we see increased crime/poverty struggles?

Democrats watching that interview…

Walking it back

Clearly Trump’s play is try and merge MAGA with disaffected Democrats on issues of censorship, war, the economy and border & then bank of trad conservatives holding their noses and voting for him when the time comes. What he did today maybe helps with disaffected Dems/Moderates in the Rust Belt but hurts him with trad conservatives in NC & GA. Trying to view it politically, that’s my best case scenario for him, but Amendment 4 is so aggressively pro-abortion that it wasn’t a risk he needed to take.

You don’t need to convince me.. im voting for him in the grounds of border security and fighting censorship. Im just telling you, this was a massive unforced error.

I get it.. but there’s a large sentiment of the conservative base that wants him gone. Hes the nominee so it’s him or Kamala. And to them 4 years of Trump / stopping 4 years of Kamala needs to be of stronger appeal than ridding him entirely by another election loss so we can usher in Youngkin or DeSantis and not have to deal with JD Vance / Vivek MAGA continuance. They’ve put up with his garbage personality, pathetic role modeling and dragging the party left because of goodwill built up in his 4 years and the alternative being untenable to consider. When he comes out to say he’s voting yes on abortion up to birth, it finally broke them. And I don’t blame them. He can still win them back, but holy **** that’s a big screw you he just levied to pro-life evangelicals.

Trump voting yes on Amendment 4 is a massive misstep. Ive defended him taking a more pro-choice stance in this election, but this ain’t it.. and hes getting destroyed by pro-life evangelical voices on social media.. mostly women.. saying they cannot vote for him in good conscience any longer.

I don’t think Nate Silver is with 538 anymore. They use his branding but Silver has his own model now. Pretty sure he publicly said he doesn’t agree with their modeling methods this cycle.

Make sure you get those Gold Star families on record.. How dare they invite this monster to pay his respects!!!

I truly hope Jason Miller is misinformed here, because… there’s no way. 18 minutes!?

Lol

Nate Silver’s model has Trump now in the lead.

Theres definitely a realignment going on. Reliably red states in AZ, GA & NC now battlegrounds. Same for the “Blue Wall” of PA, MI & WI. Florida and Ohio becoming reliably red, while Colorado and Minnesota move further blue. Arizona GOP voter registration advantage has doubled recently, but in Fox News polling, Harris is up 8 point amongst those who have moved there in the last 10 years. Unmarried women becoming an absolute monster of a voting group for Dems, which is helping to build Dem vote w/ minorities in Georgia (Atlanta), NC (Charlotte/Raleigh) and AZ (Phoenix) while the white working class moves to the right in the Rust Belt.

This is actually the best political analysis on the current media hysterics..

The Gold Star families invited Trump. The Gold Star families made it known neither Biden nor Harris have called them. Seems your issue is with the Gold Star families, not me.

Harris is running for President, which is why I specifically reference her here. Maybe Dana Bash can ask her about being last in the room and if she feels any remorse over how their plan unfolded. Ask if she has reached out to the families, despite their allegations otherwise and/or now plans to as Presidential nominee. Are you questioning the Gold Star Families? They are frustrated with the administration for not reaching out.. That’s not me alleging this.. I didn’t lose a loved one on at Abbey Gate. Do you think the tarmac moment suffices?

It’s an interesting dynamic. Trump is about as well defined a candidate as we’ve ever seen. Nothing can really harm him.. also, not much can help him. Kamala Harris is an empty suit who just benefitted from a month of glowing coverage, ending with the DNC. Nobody really knows who she is, but at the same time.. maybe that doesn’t even matter. Will be interesting to see if Trump can move the needle nationally.. which probably would have more to do with Kamala Harris becoming more defined than anything Trump himself does to lift his favorables. Either way.. the biggest surprise for me is the very real outcome that could be Kamala winning GA/NC and Trump winning PA & MI or WI. Kemp is starting to do some heavy lifting for Trump in Georgia, headlining a fundraiser for him this weekend, so if I had to guess, a Trump/Kemp rally in Georgia could happen .. and might “need” to happen if Harris continues to make inroads in the peach state. In reality.. it should’ve never gotten to this point .. Trump left himself open with that unhinged attack on Kemp in Atlanta and ever since then, Kamala has closed the gap.

How lovely..

Which is? Because all the polling seems stagnant now with the battleground states all toss-ups. I honestly don’t know what anyone expected .. it seems the convention bounce was probably already baked in by the candidate swap bounce and now it’s a tie ball game after weeks of the best coverage any candidate has ever received.

This is where I lose my ish over the Trump discourse. I think it’s pretty well known that I think he’s lost his fastball, is a child and wish we had any other candidate. So I’m not trying to defend him from weird nonsense like this. What I have no time for, is how this is somehow a story.. when he was literally invited by Gold Star Families .. meanwhile, his opponent brags about being last in the room when the dumpster fire of a plan was executed by this administration, leading to 13 fallen soldiers, of whom none of their families have been contacted by Biden or Harris. But Trump thumbs up is the problem here…