Shaw66

I was impressed on Sunday. He makes his reads and explodes to the ball. Much quick challenging at the point of attack than Edmunds was, which isn't surprising given the size differential - you can't expect instantaneous acceleration from a guy Edmunds' size. He also has much better tackling technique than Edmunds - he gets low and drives his shoulder into the ball carrier and wraps him up - classic tackling technique. I'm not saying he's as good or as useful as Edmunds was, but there are some things about his game that make him effective where Edmunds was almost a liability. I haven't seen out of position much, but that's probably because I haven't always watched him. But out of position was a problem Edmunds had in his early years, too. Probably Milano, too. I think that's to be expected from almost any young guy playing the position. What they're looking at is much more complicated than what they saw in college, and there's no way to learn it other than being out there and having it happen to you in real time. That doesn't mean he will improve, but at least it explains why he may not be making the right decision every time yet.

This happens every season. Not all of the teams that look good on paper in August (and often they look because they happened to have a lot of wins last season) are good in October. Thing is, in August you can't tell which teams those are. That's why they play the games.

I didn't watch individuals, and in fact I was only half watching the game, but "overwhelmed" is the impression I had, too. It seemed like a perpetual jailbreak. I chalked it up to the talent and style of the Steelers, but the Browns struggled to hold up to it.

This is a good point. I don't really understand formation strategy, and I think that in the Bills case it's maybe a little overstated. What the Bills have done is had a personnel change more than a formation strategy change. They've gone from a small, speedy slot to a big slot. I know that overstates the change, because the Kincaid guy runs different routes than the Beas or McKenzie. Still, I agree with your point - the Bills are trying to figure out how to use Kincaid, and Allen is trying to figure out where to find him and when he's open. I agree that it's a couple months of work to refine the passing package with this new weapon. At the Raiders game there was a really interesting moment. I think it was in the third quarter drive for a field goal, after the Milano interception. Allen found Kincaid over the middle for 12. It looked and felt like those completions they had in preseason, where Kincaid ran straight upfield and made a break and hooked to catch the pass. Nice route, nice throw, easy 12 yards. What was interesting to me was that the crowd cheered, but not in the way the crowd usually would cheer a 12-yard completion. This cheer clearly said the same thing I was thinking: "Yes! There it is!" I think the comparison to Kelce is overstated, but it was the kind of completion to the tight end that Kelce gets. Up until that point in the game, Kincaid pretty much had been catching the typical tight-end easy-five-yard catches after a release into the flat. Every tight end runs those and catches those. I mean, they're nice completions to have, but you don't have to draft a guy in the first round to get them. They are quintessential take-what-the-defense-is-giving-you plays. The catch over the middle LOOKED different. Knox doesn't run that route - it was tighter, more efficient, much more like what you see from a wideout, but the wideouts aren't lined up in positions that allow them to attack the middle in that way. A lot of people in the stands saw it, and the cheers said, "That's what I've been talking about." So, yeah, I think there's some experimenting and some discovery that is going to continue over the next couple of months. It's work that each of Dorsey, Kincaid, and Allen have to do. And if they're successful, which means if they show defenses that Allen get 10 to 20 yards over the middle like that, that the Bills can attack that area of the field in a way that they've never done before, Diggs and Davis will be the beneficiaries.

I get your point, and I'm pretty sure you got mine. I wasn't excusing the defense; I was just saying that if I'm looking for a primary cause for the loss, I'll lay it on Allen. Yes, absolutely, you want everyone on the team to do whatever they can to win the game, and when the team loses, everyone can look at plays they should have made and didn't. But generally, and as you say, I think when your defense gives up less than 20 you should win and when your offense scores more than 30, you should win. In the first case, it's probably the offense at fault, in the second, it's probably the defense. The Bills gave up 17.9 points per game last season. I don't recall how many, if any, points the offense and special teams gave up. If you call it 14 points, that means the defense gave up around 16.9 points per game. 17.9 was second in the league. If the defense is the same caliber this year, that means against the Jets, the Bills defense had an average performance, because they gave up 16. So, you can look at it two ways. Yes, the players and the coaches expect themselves to be above average all of the time, which is an oxymoron, because if they're always above average, the average changes. On the other hand, average last season was good enough to win 13 games, so average is in fact "more than good enough" to have won the Jets game. You're right about the Chiefs. It's complementary football - it's a team game, and on the best teams, some players and units are picking up the slack for some others, so that bad performances still turn into wins. The Jets game was easily winnable, even with the offensive performance. In fact, the offensive performance was somewhat expected because the Jets defense is so good. Still, the defense gave one touchdown drive of 56 yards. They gave up 289 total yards, nearly 30 yards better than their average last season. It was more than good enough to win.

Nothing. He just isn't a HOF type player. Nothing wrong with Taykor, either.

That's interesting. Thanks. But I wasn't talking just about interceptions. I was talking about decision making. Look at completion percentage. Burrow 3, Mahomes 9, and Allen 32 last year. (Some partial seasons in there, but still, Allen's pretty far down the list.) Lower completion percentage is some indication of poor decision making (although pass rush certainly might contribute to low completion percentage).

It's true. And someone point out last week that the leap in the Jets game looked like a good way to protect the ball. I don't know. Bottom line is the more you leap over tacklers, the less effective it's going to be, because players are preparing for it.

Yes, it's good to point out the dramatic shift from Josh to the running backs, who really carried the load. I'd add that during the game, I had the sense that everyone could feel the threat of Allen running. The TD to Knox was one obvious example where I felt that the defense reacted to the threat. The nice pass on the rollout to the right that Davis caught for a first down was another. Allen on the run out there in the flat got people's attention. So, there's a dual benefit. Limit wear and tear on the QB, and still require the defense to respect the runs that Allen threatens.

That's exactly the point. There are data clusters that exist with players who are not particularly good company. It depends where you set the thresholds. 300 yards and 3 TDs might give a completely different list with 325 yards and 2 TDs. One list makes the data cluster seem like it's a measure of greatness, but the other data cluster would make you think that the cluster is unimportant. In a sense, the passer rating is a different kind of data cluster, one where someone has predetermined the relative importance of various data points. The identity of the top-rated passer depends oh that relative importance. Change the weighting of different data, you get different top-rated guys. We can trust the passer rating, at least to some extent, because there is a correlation between the highest ratings and the guys we think of as the best passers. In my example, I'd gladly have a QB do either combination, but the names on the list likely are different, so it means that the clusters don't really correlate with what we're trying to measure, which is excellent quarterbacking. The data guys at the networks just mine the data to find clusters that have the right names, and we think the cluster represents something important because we recognize the names. If they were permitted to do it, they'd adjust the passer rating criteria to get names they like, too.

Yes, that could be what White is thinking. But implicit in what he was saying that when Josh is good, he's so good that you can afford to have a QB who has those games. I think most coaches would say that no one is so great that you can afford to have him give away a couple of games a year. That is, if the coach knows that his QB is going to lose two games a season for you, the coach would tell the GM they need a new QB. Elam is a similar case. Talent that isn't doing the job the way the coaches want. Obviously different, but similar in that sense. The team isn't going to keep playing Elam if they don't think he can do the job the right way. They won't keep Allen, either, if they don't believe that he can reshaped into a guy who makes decisions the right way. Allen's a smart guy. McDermott's not stupid, either. I don't think there's any way McDermott thinks that Allen is a finished product.

I really haven't thought about it, and I've read nothing of the evidence - when it might have happened, what evidence of confusion afterward is there, lot's of stuff I know nothing about. So, I think it's certainly possible, but I have no idea how likely it is that was the reason. Ultimately I'd say no, because although the Jets game may have been among the worst of his off-script games, it was far from the first time that we've seen him making decisions like that. I think it is a learned behavior. I haven't written this before, but when I saw Josh on the sideline before the start of the Jet's game, I said to my wife that I thought the Bills were in trouble. He had a look that I've seen before. He was wide-eyed, looked like kid for whom the moment was too big. He didn't look emotionally ready. And then in the third and fourth quarter, on the sideline sometimes they'd show him and his face was flushed - red like he was overheating or ov.er-excited. I've seen that look before - first time was the Texans playoff game. So, instead of a concussion, if I had to look for the problem, I'd say it was about his emotional preparedness for the game. He wasn't in the mental state of mind that allows him to be in full control of the game. I think Mahomes, for example, is pretty consistently mentally ready. And, give Mahomes a mild concussion and he might make decisions like Josh. Whatever. We saw on Sunday what can happen when he's zeroed in, mentally, with a good game plan. He was deadly.

Very interesting point about last week. By Friday, I'd reached the conclusion that that loss was essentially all on Allen. He simply did not do his job. Defense was more than good enough. Whether he's learned his lesson, we'll think. I think it's in his nature to play a bit out of control; in high school, junior college, and college, that was always the most likely way his team was going to win, because he had physical skills that were just better than the competition he faced. He's leaned to play that way. It's a habit. It's not so much learning the lesson as it is changing his habit. Most people don't just quit smoking one day and not be at risk of going back. I think what Josh has to do is build on the Raider game next week, and do it again - that is, be mindful of those decision-making habits. Then do it again the following week, and the week after that. As playing that way becomes a habit, he'll see that his team has more success when he plays that way. That habit really is the threshold he has to get across, because when playing like that - making the right decisions, play after play, allows the QB to prepare better, week to week, to learn more, because you can see that your body is good enough to deliver exactly the play that is intended. That's the kind of thinking about the game that allows the QB to develop true excellence, like Peyton, Brady, Rodgers. The objective is to make the right decision EVERY time, because that's what makes your superior physical skills truly valuable.

I think they're used to make it sound like the guy is more talented than he probably is. "He's one of only three players in the history of the game who had 450 yards passing, 3 passing touchdowns and 1 rushing touchdown in the first two games of consecutive seasons. The other two were John Elway and Aaron Rodgers." First, so what? And second, by changing the variables, you get a completely different list: "He's one of only three players to have i425 yards passing, 2 passing touchdowns and 2 rushing touchdowns in each of his first two games of consecutive seasons: The other two are Tyrod Taylor and Elvis Grbac." So, they tell you the first one, because they want you to think that his greatness matches Elway and Rodgers, and they don't want you to think he's Taylor and Grbac. By the way, I completely made up the examples, but it demonstrates why this "analysis" based on what are merely statistical coincidences.

I like all of these comments. Interesting topics. Someone suggested that the opening series play calling was a message to Allen: We're doing this by the book, and we're not giving you even an opportunity to make a big play. If your teammates all do their job, you'll grind out a first down, but this offense is not going to depend you, Josh Allen, to carry the team. Whether it was intentional, I think it had that effect. I'm usually a "take the points" guy, but I liked going for it. Three minutes left, so if you don't make it, you're telling the Raiders they have to move the ball at least 60 yards just to get a field goal. And you have confidence that your defense is up to the challenge. In fact, on third down is when Rousseau made the great bull rush and Oliver forced Garoppolo to throw it away to avoid the safety. I liked the gamble, thought it was relatively low risk.

Yeah. He has to learn and control his behavior to fit the game. By the way, I saw some whirling dervishes a few months ago. Fascinating.

Weren't they on at the same time as the Bills? Yeah, I know. It's volume that distinguishes the two. Mahomes gets tempted by the big play, too. Whatever. I was encouraged yesterday. The Bills need to keep Josh's head on straight. And, by the way, pass protection helps! Easy to lose your head when some big dudes are in your face all day.

You're really right about this. I was disappointed to go three and out, and I was disappointed that something better didn't happen on that play. But my feelings aren't what's important. What's important is that Josh showed he understood that he doesn't have to win the game on every play. Games are long, and if the opportunity to make a play doesn't present itself this time, there will be plenty of opportunities at other times. There are two questions: What do you do on a play that's going nowhere, and what do you do on a play when you have a good chance to make something happen. Josh answered both questions yesterday.

You're right. I just posted the same thought in Virgil's thread. Josh should recognize that when the guy stays high, Josh can just power right through him.

These aren't records. They're just data trifectas that the media dredge out of the endless stats that are available.

Josh has to begin to recognize when guys are going to stay up to stop the leap, because he has the size just to drive those guys downfield. Josh had the TD there if he had gone low.

In case you’re wondering, across Abbott Road from Highmark Stadium where thousands of Bills fans used to park, there’s a huge hole in the ground. I mean really huge. Big enough to put a whole football field in it. In fact, as I understand, Kim and Terry Pegula are planning to do just that. Of course, all of the people who used to park there now must park somewhere else, and they all must find their way to those somewhere elses. The powers that be, Erie County and Orchard Park and the Buffalo Bills, probably made their best collective guesses about how to get all of those people to all of those different parking spaces before Sunday’s home opener against the Oakland-Los Angeles-Oakland-Las Vegas Raiders, but their guesses weren’t good enough. There was a LOT of traffic pregame, and leaving the stadium wasn’t any better. I took my usual route, south on Union Road and then southwest on Southwestern at about 9:30. That’s when I first began suspecting that something was wrong. Cars were backed up from the stadium almost all the way to Union. Not a good sign. An hour later, I still hadn’t entered the stadium parking lot. It was a mess. We stayed until the end of the game, and then we stayed in the club for twenty minutes or more to watch the end of the 1:00 p.m. games. By the time we got to the car, just about all of the fans were at least 40 minutes ahead of us, and it still took us more than a half hour to get out of the lot. Cars were everywhere. I did learn something while stuck in the pregame traffic: WGR’s Jeremy doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Sunday morning, he said over and over again that Bills fans had to take Josh Allen’s bad with his good. He said that if you want all those miraculous things that Josh Allen and no one else can do, you have to take the bone-headed turnovers and the bone-jarring collisions. He said that eliminating Josh’s mistakes will eliminate his greatness. Think about that for a minute. It’s more or less axiomatic that good QBs throw about three TD passes for every one interception. He seemed to be saying that we all have to live with a couple of stupid interceptions a game (like against the Jets last week), which means that if Josh is going be a good QB, he needs to throw six TDs a game. Josh may be great, but he isn’t that great. No. Jeremy White was pretending he knew what he was talking about when in fact he doesn’t have a clue. Here’s the simple proof. Patrick Mahomes is a great QB. He and Josh Allen are the only QBs in the league who regularly do magical thinks on the field. All the other QBs are just football players; every week, Mahomes and Allen make throws that are among the top highlights on every network. What’s the difference between the two? Well, about five years ago, Mahomes stopped making stupid plays. That’s the difference. When Allen stops making stupid plays, he will be one of the greatest QBs of all time, possibly even the very best. The only thing keeping Allen from being that great are the mistakes that Jeremy White tells us we should live with. The good news for Buffalo Bills fans is that Jeremy White isn’t the Bills’ head coach. We all can be sure that Sean McDermott is not telling Josh Allen that those 50-yard throws into double coverage are okay. No, Sean McDermott actually understands football. Sunday it was clear that Sean McDermott and Ken Dorsey had taken Allen out behind the proverbial woodshed and whipped his proverbial butt and told him the proverbial beatings would continue until he stopped playing like a proverbial jackass. Or something like that. Allen got the message. Sunday afternoon, pass play after pass play, Allen followed the script. He took the throw he was supposed to take, delivered the ball accurately, and moved on to the next play. Lots of those throws were little dump offs to receivers two yards downfield for four-yard gains. There were more or less no spectacular 45-yard darts across the field that left us exclaiming that no one else could make that throw. But guess what? Those stupid little dump offs kept adding up to six-and eight-minute touchdown drives. Over and over. What about Allen’s greatness? Oh, it was still there, for sure. It was there in all three touchdown passes: A rocket to Gabriel Davis that would have whizzed through the hands of almost any receiver who hadn’t spent three years catching Allen rockets. An exquisite fake handoff and rollout to find Dawson Knox alone in the endzone. A trademark it’s-a-pass-no-it’s-a-run-no-it’s-a-pass-how-did-he-do-that? to Khalil Shakir. An Allen rollout right and perfect floater into Davis’s hands for a first down, a throw with the kind of touch that people used to say Allen didn’t have. Yes, some people might say, but where was the deep ball? What about that play when Allen hit Kincaid for a first down on the sideline as Davis had broken deep up the same sideline? What about it? The whole point of what’s been wrong with Allen’s game is that he often passes up the easy completion for a higher-risk-higher-reward throw. Trying to hit Davis on that play was going to get Allen another trip to the woodshed. Instead, he took the easy first down and moved on to the next play. When did Allen throw it deep? Once, when he had Diggs one-on-one. Not one-on-two, like last week when Josh threw an interception. Diggs one-on-one deep is a good play. The pass interference call set up a touchdown. Against the Raiders, Josh Allen played with the efficiency that makes Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa so difficult to play against. But Allen was playing that way with a right arm those guys can only dream of. He was playing that way with the ability to escape and run at any time. Against the Raiders, we saw what Josh Allen can be, week after week. McDermott and Dorsey need to figure out how to get that Josh Allen to show up every week. If it takes a weekly trip to the woodshed, so be it. Meanwhile, it’s still a team game, and there are a lot of other guys on the team. For example: Greg Rousseau. Wow. He’s added the bull rush to his repertoire, and now he’s a terror. There were others, but the play that stands out was in the third quarter, third down. He drove the offense tackle straight into Garoppolo, who escaped to his right. Oliver flashed under Groot and was in the QB’s face in an instant, forcing a throw-away and a punt. Rousseau is becoming special. Terrel Bernard. The guy is not perfect, but he’s far from a liability. Instant-quick recognition, real quickness to the ball, and picture-perfect tackling technique. Gabriel Davis. Offensive line. Josh had the time he needed, and the room to run when time expired. The running back room. What a great mix of backs. Each can do multiple things, but none of them does all the same things as the others. Each is a threat to run or to catch it out of the backfield. Each is a threat to make quality plays. Did Milano catch that ball, or was it the receiver’s head? Or both? What a play. Diggs? Give it time. As Josh keeps hurting teams short, the time is coming when Diggs will break free. Great game! GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

I'm hoping to drop in. Don't need parking.

I'll light a candle at St. Benedict's.

See, I don't think that's correct. If have to accept him for what he is, then they should trade him for picks and start. When I look at franchise QBs, what makes them great is decision making, not physical abilities. Vick and Newton weren't great. Rodgers was better than Favre, because Rodgers was a more reliable decision maker. Elway didn't win until he became a reliable decision maker. Brady and Peyton killed opponents with their brains. Josh needs to play with the mental discipline that Mahomes, Burrow, and Tua have. When he does that, he will be great. If he's never going to play with that kind of discipline, then the Bills may as well start over.