Shaw66

Hey, Transplant, thanks for doing this. It's really a great piece of work. People probably have challenged it one basis or another, and I'm sure there is some fine tuning that could be done to make everything more, uh, accurate. But I would be very surprised if what you've done is far off the mark. A couple of comments. Your very first point is excellent. Accuracy in the NFL is very much pass/fail - either you're accurate enough or you aren't, you make the grade or you don't. Are some people more accurate that others? Sure, but that isn't the point. The point is are you good enough for the NFL, and is you OVERALL package really good. Put another way, you can grade all kinds of QB skillsets - accuracy, ball handling, pre-snap recognition, pocket presence, scrambling - all kinds of stuff. Every successful QB is better in some categories than in others, but the fact that they are weaker in some category doesn't mean they're bad quarterbacks. Brady is a pretty bad scrambler, but no one is saying he can't play QB in the NFL. What IS necessary, as you say, is that you have to meet the minimum in every category. Beyond that, you need to be really good in enough categories so that the total package is really good, even if one category is weak. None of that means you don't work to improve weaknesses; it just means that being weak in an area is somehow fatal. Second, your analysis confirms what I saw. Sure, Allen threw some inaccurate passes and sure, he threw some ugly interceptions. What I saw was a guy who threw most balls easily within the receiver's catch radius and a guy who threw some really accurate balls. I'm sure, for example, that someone on this forum must have asked all the accuracy critics what they thought of Allen's TD throw in the left flat. That's a throw the announcers would absolutely rave about if Brady or Brees threw it. EJ could have thrown that ball anywhere, but you can count on Allen to make that throw pretty regularly. I watched KC this weekend for some of the game. While I was watching, Mahomes threw three or four pretty ugly balls to open receivers. It happens. What I expect is going to happen is that Allen's stats are going to make a big jump next season. It'll be clear in the stats. His completion percentage, his passer rating both will go up a lot. People are going to be saying that Allen worked really hard in the off-season to improve his accuracy. I don't think any of that will be true. His numbers are going to go up because (1) he has a full off-season to study and practice, (2) he gets virtually ALL the first-team reps starting with off-season workouts, (3) he has better receivers, (4) he has a better offensive line and (5) he has a year's experience in the league. In other words, what I expect is going to happen is that we, the serious fans, will see more or less the same QB in 2019 as in 2018. Yeah, he'll make a few passes here and there that he missed as a rookie. And yes, he'll be better at the line of scrimmage because of the experience he now has. But mostly he's going to be better because he has a better team around him, both on offense and on defense. It's what McDermott calls "complementary football." As each guy at each position improves, it also improves the guys around him. And as his team (offense, defense or special teams) gets better because he improved, the other teams get better, too. The attitude is to always be driven by the notion that "if I get better, the whole team gets better and that's what I want."

As for the "scarcity" of snaps, the defense is designed to play eight d-linemen. I think the most you can expect Star to play is maybe 60% of the snaps, so 50% is terribly troubling to me. He was at 53 and 65% his last two years at Carolina, and in the 45% range the two seasons before that. So he may be down a bit, but he's essentially being used the way he always was used. I can't get excited about any of this.

I think all of us amateur GMs don't know what we're talking about. First, the Lorenzo Alexander statements are telling. He's a one seven or eight guys IN THE WORLD whose ability to do his job depends on what Star does, and if he says Star is doing his job, that's enought for me. Second, NFL salaries ARE not a measure of a guy's worth in every case. Look at the salary dispersion of ALL teams - there are 2 or 3 or 4 guys over $10 million a year, and about 45 at or about $2 million or less. Often the lucky guys, like Star, hit the market at just the right time and get a really nice contract. In terms of actual value to the team, he isn't worth three times as much as some guy making $1.5, but that's just the nature of NFL salaries. Put another way, there is no way to determine the relative value of each player on the team compared to each other player. Even if you could determine those values, there is no way that every player's compensation could be set at exactly the correct amount compared to every other player. You can't even get close. Every team has guys who are getting paid a few million more than they are "worth" and some guys who are getting paid a few million less than they are "worth." The players understand this. They treat their wealthy teammates as guys who hit Lotto, but most do not walk around complaining that those guys are being overpaid. Now, if you're overpaying 10 guys (or worse, is you have a lot of guys not even on the team you're still paying in dead cap space), it's a problem. But if all you have is a few, it just doesn't matter. Every team has a few. If Star is doing his job, no one in the organization is concerned about his paycheck, and the fans shouldn't be, either.

Hmmmmmm Don't mind me.

This is great analysis of why the Bills might not have wanted him. Plus, the NFL doesn't like small QBs. Mahomes and Mayfield may finally change that bias. But it doesn't respond to the original point, which is that if they had it to do over they would have kept the pick and taken Mahomes. Who wouldn't? Still, given all that's happened I like where the Bill's are. If they'd taken Mahomes, maybe they would have gotten Edmund's anyway, but not White. So Bills possibly will end up better off doing what they did, but today, its hard to argue that getting Mahomes would have been the wrong move. Two years from now I think we will be happy it fell the way it did, but that's a guess. Mahones isnt a guess anymore.

Oh, that's my mistake. With Allen on the roster now I wouldn't do that, because I'd have to trade Allen and I couldn't get the equivalent of those three guys in a trade. But if think about it. Before last season's draft, yes, in a heartbeat.

Acctually you're right, in the sense that NO ONE has ever put up a ridiculous season like Mahomes in his first. But that means that there's NEVER been a guy who's become an elite QB after having put up such a season. It's never happened, so the fact that he put up an elite season doesn't say anything about his future.

Okay, you asked for it. Here's SI's list of the top 10 rookie seasons for QBs. https://www.si.com/nfl/photo/2016/10/11/best-rookie-quarterback-seasons-nfl-history#8 On the list are: Robert Griffin III, Jameis WInston, Andy Dalton, Cam Newton. Out of ten, one is a bust and three are NOTelite or top tier. And those are the rookies, not guys who sat for a year and then started. There probably are a few of those, too. Like I said, it's too early to tell.

Right. Look, there's no denying that Mahomes has been spectacular. The problem is we're talking about the future, not the past, and no one can predict the future. Prescott looked spectacular his rookie year. Where Allen is headed, and where Mahomes is headed, no one knows. In my view, there's a pretty good chance they're both stars, and I think there's about an equal chance they're both journeymen. Yes, Mahomes to date has been better, no question. But Mahomes has a year, a coach, a wideout, a tight end and an offensive line over Allen. Too soon to tell. But since I view it as a push, it makes no sense to me to give up Edmunds to swap QBs. Edmunds has huge potential.

Other than to say I definitely would not trade the three for the one, I haven't posted here. Others probably have said what I'm going to say. First, if the question is whether I'd trade those three guys for one of the ten best quarterbacks of all time at the beginning of his career, the answer is yes, I'd make that trade. QBs are too important, and having an all-time great as your QB is priceless. The problem is two-fold. One part of the problem is whether Mahomes actually IS an all-time great or just had a season that made him look that way. The other part of the problem is exactly how great Allen actually will turn out to be. If Allen becomes an all-time great, it wouldn't make sense to trade Edmunds and White just to be able to swap all-time greats. As for the Mahomes problem, I don't think he's an all-time great. He IS amazing, I'll grant that. He's creative and he's athletic. He understand and he executes the offense. But I think he's the product of the environment he's in; that is, he's playing for one of the very few coaching geniuses out there, a guy who given the tools can attack defenses in remarkable and effective ways. And Reid has the tools, not just at QB, but at wideout and at tight end and on the offensive line. One reason their offense has slowed down, I believe, is that they lost their running back. He was an important part of the package. I said early in this past season something that someone else said in this thread - if you'd given Allen a year on the bench in Kansas City and named Allen the starter for 2018, people around the country would be talking about Allen instead of Mahomes. I really believe that. Mahomes looks to be a little more intuitive at QB and a little more creative, but Allen is better in and the pocket and is a better runner. Allen would have had great production in the the KC offense this season. And I think size matters. I think over time Mahomes size will be a liability. Over time, both guys will run and scramble less, because their bodies won't let them do the things they do know, and because defenses will adjust to their style. They will be forced to succeed more as pocket passers. When that happens, Allen will have a definite edge. Allen's size will allow him to play like Big Ben, and it will allow him to have a long career as a field general. Yes, it's true that Brees has succeeded largely as a pocket passer, and he's practically tiny. But Brees has had the luxury of a certifiable offensive genius as his head coach. And Brees is a freak. The odds of Mahomes evolving into the next Brees are smaller than Allen evolving into the next Big Ben. So for me, long-term, Allen and Mahomes are a push. Yes, Mahomes is in the lead currently; he's had a one-year head start and he's surrounded by talent. How much better do you think Allen's numbers would have been in 2018 if he'd been throwing to Kelce instead of Clay and Tyreek Hill instead of Foster? IF those two QBs are a push, I'm certainly not trading Edmunds and White so I can have Mahomes over Allen. And that's BEFORE I consider the real possibility that in the Edmunds the Bills have the best middle linebacker in the league for the decade of the 20s.

I wouldn't trade the three for Mahomes. No way. I believe five years from now, probably less, Allen will be the better QB, so I don't think I'd trade even up.

I agree with the notion that there were no guarantees Reich would have been the right guy at the time. He hadn't had his success in Philadelphia yet - he learned a lot there. I think there's a more important point, however, a point that I think isn't lost on the Pegulas or McBeane. To be successful, long term, you need a growing, unified organization. When the Bills win the Super Bowl, it has to feel like a win to Kelly and to Bruce and to Kyle. Everyone stays in the family, forever. That's something Ralph didn't understand. Don't burn bridges with Cookie and with Saban. It's all a family, and it's always building. And part of that is having the humility to listen to all those family members, even the drunk uncle who only drops in every five years. Listen and make what you hear part of your decision making. I think Brandon and Whaley, although I generally was supportive of what they were trying to do, had a circle-the-wagons mentality, but they didn't let everyone into the circle. It was a small circle, and they tended not to care about what people outside thought. It's easy for me to see them dismissing Bruce and Wolford, because they clearly were outside the circle. The Browns learned the lesson with Jim Brown. They kept him out for a while. It was a mistake. You don't have to make him GM, like Elway, but you have to keep him inside the circle. And you have to listen to him. I think the Pegulas have figured this out. In fact, I think McBeane have taught them about this, and they've taken it to heart. McDermott preaches Bills history and community. It's the OneBuffalo concept. When Bruce called, Russ Brandon probably told his assistant to take a message. When Bruce calls Beane, I'd guess Beane takes the call if he can. And Kim and Terry, too. They won't take your call or mine, but they'll talk to Bruce. Thinks have changed at OBD. Timing may not have been right for Reich, but things have changed, and the Bills are headed in the right direction. The Pegulas learned a big lesson with Rex. Several lessons. Their process wasn't right, and the people they had running the process weren't right. They figured that out and they changed it. It's too early to tell, but I think they got it right this time. They ran - THEY ran - a better process, and they made hires that resulted in a coherent, integrated front office team, owners, GM and HC headed in one direction together.

You may be wrong Biscuit. It probably was Barkley's best start - whenever i saw him earlier he looked like Peterman. Oh, no, that might be it. Barkley reminds McDermott of Peterman! Anyway, just about all the good journey men were lousy when they were young. They stuck around because they were smart team players who were helpful in the QB room. No one has a really good backup, and if they do, he's leaving. I think they want Barkley, with Anderson, to give Allen some stability. They want to keep as much the same as possible going into year two. Maybe in year three look to move on from Barkley, especially if you have a UDFA at QB on the practice squad in year two.

Didn't realize there were so many QBs likely to be on the move. Just like last season. It's nice for once not to be shopping for a QB.

One quality free agent and one high draft pick should net two starters. That should enough, with some growth from last season's starters. A third new face starting would be nice, but I think two is enough. And integrating two is possible; three new guys is like starting over, which is okay if you have to. I'd guess that among Dawkins, Bodine, Miller, Mills and Teller there are three 2019 starters.

Listen to his coach. He just loves the guy. Sounds like a competitor and a team player. McBeane's kind of guy. That plus talent is a nice combination.

More than five. That guy can catch. All these CFL guys are small. Makes Williams look like a giant. He won't have that advantage in the NFL. Still, he looks like a tough guy with hands. Should be an important addition. Without burning a draft pick.

I have a friend who is a big fan of the NFL, MLB, NHL and less of an NBA fan. When almost any game comes on, and none of his teams is involved, he is rooting for the team that he dislikes least. It's almost like he has them ranked in order of personal dislikability. That always seemed to take too much, maintaining an active dislike for some team. Even if I had a dislike for the Pats, it would be hard not to recognizable how remarkable their success has been. It's undeniable.

I'm really sick of watching the Patriots, but I admire them. I'm root against them pretty much all the time. Still, I'm mostly indifferent about them.

Thanks. That article is great. This guy sounds like he's ready for McDermott's leadership. I'm interested in the notion that he may be a tight end. He's a pretty good sized guy, he's tough and he seems to have good hands. Clay is too much the old style TE, and Croom simply may not have the size and aggressiveness to some of the TE dirty work. Williams could be a Kelce, Ebron type guy. He may not have the size he needs, but maybe it works. Certainly will be rooting for him.

The played a pregame interview with Luck. He said it's like they've been in the playoffs for weeks. Nothing has changed. They just do their work each day and stick with the process. McDermott isn't the only one with a process.

Has a rough history. If he passed the McBeane screeens, it means he has mostly straightened himself out. Could be a great talent upgrade.

Thanks, Milt. I appreciate the kind words.

Thanks for the link. It's a place I haven't used, but it seems to do a lot of good things. Home page has Josh Allen up as having thrown the longest pass - air yards - in 2018.

When you watched Galloway that day, you saw one of the 10 or 20 best receiving days by any receiver in the league in 2018. He was spectacular. There are probably 15 receivers in the league who can be dominant like that. Let's be generous and call it 30 who can dominate like that. Most of them are #1s or are on their way to becoming #1s quickly. Of course I'd like to have a guy like Galloway as my #2. 32 GMs would too. He's not the kind of guy you can expect to have in that position, at least until there's a general upgrade in other talent on the team. Let's face it, if a guy Galloway is in the Bills' camp next summer, he isn't taking Zay's #2 job. He's the #1 guy, and Zay probably keeps his job over Foster as the #2. The way Zay loses his job is the Bills get lucky in the draft and come up with a really talented receiver AND Foster continues his growth. It's possible, of course, particularly because Beane so adamantly goes after the best player available. So the Bills could get a really good rookie receiver. And it's also possible that the Bills continue to unlock Foster's talent and he makes another leap forward in 2019. He has the physical ability. So you could get your Galloway, but I think it's much more likely you're going to have Zay. I predict you'll be happy with him.