Shaw66

Nobody's picking him apart. We're talking about things that he could better. Right. It's Brady's genius. He always gets the most out of each play, even if the most is an incompletion.

Well, that may be true in some cases, but I doubt in all. My fundamental point is that he's playing well. Whatever the reason, he's throwing a lot of deeper ball, and those are always going to be lower completion percentage balls. The point is that he doesn't have low percentage because he's missing a lot. He's throwing harder balls to complete. Now, some of that, I believe, is bad judgment. I'd guess the coaches are telling him he should make some different choices. But maybe not. Maybe he's already making the choices they want.

No. Allen isn't the play caller, but he has to decide what to do with the ball. No one does that for him. As Hapless pointed out, Allen wasn't thinking when he threw to Lesean for a six yard loss. He knew where McKenzie was supposed to be, and he has to recognize that settling for zero yards with a chance for more is just better than giving it to your best runner six yards behind the line of scrimmage. Shady has the potential to break a long run, of course, but a lot of choices in the NFL are about cutting your losses. Sean McDermott will differ with you big-time if you want discuss whether a a five yard completion is better than a 12-yard incompletion under almost ANY circumstances.

That's an interesting list. Clearly, he has to learn to throw shorter passes. Seriously. Success in the NFL requires high completion percentage - that's what works. A five-yard completion is better than a 12-yard incompletion, obviously. That's what hapless was demonstrating, in a way, when he talked about Allen throwing to McCoy for a loss. In both that case and downfield passes that fall incomplete, he isn't making all the right choices. That just takes time, practice, coaching.

Here's a list of the 12 QBs with passer ratings just above Allen's, which is 34 best in the league. So it's 21 through 33. I think Allen would be starting ahead of all those guys. Especially when you consider his running, but even without it. 21 Marcus Mariota, QB TEN 206 298 69.1 2,330 7.82 61 11 8 39 93.4 194 22 Baker Mayfield, QB CLE 224 354 63.3 2,639 7.46 71 18 10 22 91.1 264 23 Jameis Winston, QB TB 157 232 67.7 1,941 8.37 60 12 11 18 90.8 277 24 Matthew Stafford, QB DET 292 439 66.5 3,086 7.03 67 18 11 36 90.0 257 25 Andy Dalton, QB CIN 226 365 61.9 2,566 7.03 49 21 11 21 89.6 233 26 Brock Osweiler, QB MIA 113 178 63.5 1,247 7.01 75 6 4 16 86.1 208 27 Alex Smith, QB WSH 205 328 62.5 2,180 6.65 52 10 5 22 85.7 218 28 Case Keenum, QB DEN 256 411 62.3 2,953 7.19 64 14 10 28 85.1 246 29 Joe Flacco, QB BAL 232 379 61.2 2,465 6.50 71 12 6 16 84.2 274 30 Blake Bortles, QB JAX 223 369 60.4 2,572 6.97 80 13 10 27 81.9 234 RK PLAYER TEAM COMP ATT PCT YDS YDS/A LONG TD INT SACK RATE YDS/G 31 C.J. Beathard, QB SF 102 169 60.4 1,252 7.41 82 8 7 18 81.8 209 32 Sam Darnold, QB NYJ 159 289 55.0 1,934 6.69 76 11 14 21 68.3 215 33 Josh Rosen, QB ARI 148 273 54.2 1,670 6.12 75 10 11 26 68.2 167

Oh, I don't do the drive all in a day. I drive Saturday, stay overnight, go the game and drive home. Couldn't do it all in a day.

I think the continued dissing of Allen is evidence of the same press bias that is out there. This guy writes very nicely and he SOUNDS authoritative, but I don't know what he's talking about. It seems clear to me he hasn't been watching the games. I think he looks at highlights and stats. Frankly, as much as I love his running, I don't get too excited about. I loved Taylor running, too, but all that matters was whether he could play QB in the NFL. He demonstrated that he could, but just marginally. He couldn't get significantly better. He looked like the same guy in Cleveland. It isn't about running. It's about passing and running the team. Allen makes an occasional bad throw, but he is NOT an inconsistent thrower. His passing seems to keep getting better, with a lot of passes right where they need to be. I keep thinking about the throw to Jones on the sideline at the end of the Dolphins game, the one overturned on review. That was an outstanding throw. He has a lot of those. What problems I see are minor. He doesn't always get his feet set - every once in a while he throws a bit off balance. I think he isn't seeing all the receivers all the time. I saw something somewhere that said that he should be checking the ball down more than he is - he's always going downfield, even if it's a tight window, when it would be fine for him to take the checkdown, gets some high probability free yards and go on to the next play. He has a lower completion percentage on those tight-window downfield plays. Allen has a lots of little things he needs to learn, lots and lots. He's smart and he's motivated. I don't doubt that he'll learn them. The real point is that he is, today, a bona fide NFL starting quarterback. Right now. I think people who haven't watched enough to see these things just will be late to the party.

I'm late to this thread, I know. I really didn't care that Benjamin got cut, and I really don't care if he succeeds in KC. If he does, it will be good for him, and he doesn't seem like a bad guy. He got a lot of hate around here because of his performance, but he's just guy who couldn't get it done here. He's gone to a great offensive coach with an offense that won't ask him to do a lot, and he may make plays for the Chiefs. I don't care because because whether he might succeed someplace else, McB decided that he wasn't going to succeed in Buffalo. Better to let others have a shot and reload next season. And I don't fault McB for getting him in the first place. There's no question they're figuring a lot out as they go. They both are doing new, much more complicated jobs in Buffalo than they'd ever had before. And even the very best coaches and GMs in the business don't get personnel decisions correct all the time. McB are in a process of learning themselves, just as much as they expect their players to be in a process. Frankly, since they figured out that Allen was the guy to get and then got him to the Bills, they can have half a dozen mistakes like Benjamin and they're still ahead of the game.

I'm 6 and a half hours out, too, and I do it 5 or 6 times each season. And I've gone to games solo. I have a casual relationship with a few folks around me, but certainly pre- and post-game and even much of the game I'm alone. I like it. I actually find conversations during the game are distracting. I like just watching and thinking about the game. And although I'd rather do the drive with company, I don't mind going solo. Sometimes I listen to a book or to music. I make a few phone calls. On the way home I think and rethink aspects of the game.

Thanks. Tickets are gone.

I have two tickets for the Jets game I'm giving away. PM me if you're interested. You need a smart phone with email on it so that I can email the tickets to you.

This comparison to recent Bill's QBs is a good way to look at it. He already certainly is past where Manuel ever was. He's already better than Losman ever was. Losman made more mistakes in his final season than Allen is making in his first. I wouldn't be too quick to say his floor is Taylor and Fitzpatrick is. I tend to agree, but those guys were pretty consistent veterans and Allen still could stumble.

I agree the new guys are taking over. And in the group of new guys, there are a half dozen with the potential to be in the top 10 all time discussion. Goff, Wentz, Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Mahomes. Guys with arms and moxie. Not saying any or all will be top 10, but those guys and maybe one or two more have the potential.

I'm way up the curve. I'm trying to curb my enthusiasm. I think Allen is a star. I don't even include his running ability in my evaluation. Poise, pocket presence, command of the huddle, scrambling and escapability, and throwing ability are all first rate. He's smart and eager to learn. I think he's the best of his class and actually can be the best of his generation. And I'm back on the McBeane bandwagon. First because they were smart enough to identify Allen and find a way to get him. Next because they've created place where players want to play. Third, because McDermott builds sound defenses. Fourth, because they keep changing until they get it right. And I'm liking Daboll. But.mostly because of Allen. I'm excited.

That's a great perspective. Thanks.

Love your stuff. Thanks. A couple of comments. I said about 6 weeks ago that if Allen had reported to the Chiefs camp in June and Mahomes wasn't there, Allen would be having the success Mahomes is having. Now, I know that's a bit of an overstatement, but really, what is it that Allen isn't doing that we'd like? Not much. Mahomes is scrambling and hitting wide open receivers. Allen can do that. I agree about getting more speed on the field at the receiver position making a difference. But I also think that Daboll is starting to hit his stride in terms of the modern NFL offense. I think he has a QB who can deliver the ball, and he's seeing now how he can use the more modern route techniques if he has speed guys out there. Let's face, the chances are that there isn't an all-pro receiver on the roster right now. All-Pros are nice to have, but what's been needed is route design, quality route running by guys with some speed, and a QB who can deliver the ball. We're starting to see all three. And pass protection. It's important to remember that all of this goes together. When the running game is working (albeit even if it's your QB running) it changes the pass rush. When the pass rush changes, the pass protection gets easier. The offensive line hasn't suddenly gotten good, although I'm sure they're improving as the season progresses. jWhat's happened is the whole offense has gotten better, which tends to keep the defense a bit out of sync. It feeds on itself.

Clay's feet are always in quicksand. He isn't a quick twitch player. That's why the throw needed to be better I'd you want to win. Your qb isn't throwing to a hypothetical player we would like to have. He's throwing to real live player who has limitations.

It's about big picture, not individual decisions.

Yeah. I learn a lot about football when people are talking about the details and willing to change their opinion as the discussion progresses. There's a good discussion in another thread about whether Foster didn't run his route correctly on the deep ball.

I love watching McDermott and Beane operate. They have no fear. In particular, they have no fear of mistakes. They make decisions, like acquiring Benjamin, and they are not afraid to admit that it didn't work. I also love how they don't waste time. They want a young team, they want to build through the draft. They don't want old players around unless they are really, really good players or leaders. If you're old and not a leader or a star, you're occupying space that, in McBeane's mind, is better occupied by a young guy. Get the old guy out of here NOW, so we can get a young guy in and see what he can do. They're going to keep changing the mix of players every chance they get. As they've said many times, they're all about getting better at every position, all the time. McBeane's mindset changed when the game ended Sunday. The Bills have four preseason games left in 2018. These games are the opportunity to see and evaluate players, and the Bills have seen and evaluated Benjamin and Holmes as much as they needed.

Someone else commented on this, and I think this is the right answer. We don't know the future, but assume for this discussion it's three years from now, Allen is acknowledged as a true star in the league, and Foster is his deep threat, like Marvin Harrison was for Peyton. What are the announcers going to be saying about them? They're going to talk about all the time Allen and Foster spent after practice, working on communication on all their favorite routes. For example, they're going to be saying that Foster learned not to look for the ball too early on that route, that Allen learned to lead Foster one way or another. Whatever the details, they're going to be saying that Allen and Foster had a much deeper understanding of what each is going to try to do on the play. You're right, maybe they'll never get it. But it's that kind of special relationship that develops over time that makes certain passer-receiver combinations so deadly. If Allen and Foster are completing that pass two years from now, it will because they've learned to do some little things AND to expect the other guy to do some little things.

Exactly. The guy is great. It's so exciting having him as the Bills' QB. He has little things to learn, like you've said. I'm sure there are a hundred more, or a thousand. That's what experience does. No one expects him to get all of these little things right in his rookie year. His rookie year is to show he deserves to be on the field, and he's done that, for sure. His rookie year is the beginning of the process of mastering first the big details, then the smaller and smaller details. We're seeing that happen - every week the guy looks better than he looked the week before.

Absolutely right. Let's face it. This season iis Allen's opportunity to get used to the NFL, to raise his game from the college level to the pro level. That's why it's been so important to get him on the field. The things he's seeing and doing are teaching him what it takes to succeed in the NFL. 2018 is, in a sense, the "preseason" for his career. Think of all the things he knows now that he didn't know a year ago. He's way up the learning curve. Starting in the 2019 offseason, he and the coaching staff and his receiving corps are going to be working on the little details that make the difference between OK and great. It's clear he already has the big picture; next season he's going to be refining his skills. Next year he's going to be the number 1 guy, getting a lot of reps with the receivers he's going to see on the field next season. I'd guess that if there was a redraft today, and all the GMs had all the film of the 2018 season available to them, Josh Allen would go to Cleveland. I'd guess that coaches are looking at the film of Allen and recognizing that, however many great ones may be just at the beginning of their careers (Mahomes, Goff, Wentz, Mayfield, Wentz are the current favorites), Allen is definitely one of them.

Thanks for the data. It's pretty persuasive. Amazing that Brady was 13% on lonSo I'd say you're right, Brady wouldn't have made the throw that was necessary. You say you're misunderstanding me, and maybe you and others are. Here's how I feel about it. The only stat that matters is wins. The QB is the most important player on the field, and his job, like it or not, is to deliver wins. Fourth quarter drives, big plays when his team needs them. Nothing matters except wins. It doesn't matter if you've completed 25 in a row; if you need number 26 to win the game and you don't get it, the QB hasn't done all that he needs to do. Allen, from the reports I've seen and the portion of the game I saw, had a game that once again showed that he's a special talent. On his final play, he showed that he's a special talent. But Allen had one more thing he had to do in the game, and that was stop and set his feet before he threw. He didn't do that, and as a result underthrew the ball. I'd guess if you asked him he'd tell you he underthrew it by five yards - that is, he intended to lead Clay to a spot directly on line with the throw he made, but farther toward the sideline and 4-5 yards deeper in the end zone. He didn't make the throw he needed or wanted, and he missed by a lot. . It was a catchable ball, for sure. Any ball that hits the receiver in the hands in the NFL is a catchable ball. So Allen gave his teammate a chance to make a play, which means that Allen did the minimum on the the play. However, his job is to win the game, not to do the minimum. Compare this throw to the throw up the left sideline to Jones that was called incomplete after review. Now, that was a much tougher catch than Clay's, but an NFL receiver is supposed to make that catch. He ran his route, he made his cut, the ball was delivered in a good spot for him to make the catch. THAT was the kind of throw that wins football games, but Jones couldn't come up with it. Think about Clay. He is not one of the great tight ends. He's had more than his share of drops. He's an all-purpose tight end, not primarily a receiving tight end. He'd just run around for about 8 seconds at the end of a long, hard game. He made a lousy break on the ball, made an awkward attempt to get his hands on the ball, and as a result needed to make a pure hands catch on the way to ground. This wasn't Stevie Johnson in stride dropping a perfect throw in the end zone to win the game. Clay isn't any place close to being a number 1 receiver, he hasn't ever been known for consistently plucking balls out of the air or off the ground, this wasn't a play where Clay was the primary receiver and came open in stride as the play was designed. That was a low-probability catch for him. I'm not defending Clay, and I'm not saying he couldn't and shouldn't have caught it. What I am saying is that looking back on Josh Allen's career, if he is going to be a great QB, he's going to win those games, not have spectacular highlights from games he lost. He did a lot of great things in that game, but unless that final pass is completed, Josh Allen didn't have a great game. That throw five yards deeper for a TD is part of Allen's all-time highlight reel; the only highlight reel the actual play makes is the highlight of greatest Bills' disappointments, along with Stevie's drop and Terence McGee's kickoff return against the Saints. Allen will do better next time. That is, he'll be great, and the Bills will win.

Really? I guess I never thought about it, but I'd guess that Brees for sure and Brady probably can. And 55 was all that was necessary. But maybe you're right. Here;s Brees throwing 55. Brady throwing 62.