Shaw66

You're correct that Allen needs to take something off some throws. But it's also true that receivers have to learn to catch his zingers. It's a real advantage sometimes to get the ball there fast. The receivers will learn this next year, with Allen getting all the first team reps. And DBs and LBs aren't used to catching balls with a lot of zip, so Allen's fastball also cuts down on INTs. Elway had that advantage.

I'm glad someone said this. Great catches are great because most receivers don't make them. Most good receivers miss tough balls more often than they catch them. It makes no sense to call everything a receiver touches and doesn't catch a drop. Take the throw over the middle that Clay didn't catch discussed early in this thread. You have to consider who the receiver is. That is a ball I expect Zay to catch, but not necessarily Clay. He isn't very athletic, and running at full speed across the field and going down for the ball is a tough play for him. The truth is that Clay just isn't an good modern tight end. He's more blocker and less receiver than today's game demands. He fit the game 10 years ago better. Allen knows that throws to Clay have to be better than throws to some other guys.

I agree. Phillips is entertaining. I worry he's a little on the edge, but it seems he's a fit with McD. Point is, even if Philliips goes, in terms of talent, the Bills will be net winners by a lot in 2018, not net losers.

Thanks, Freddy - That's a great post. I'm expecting Josh and Tremaine to be 10-20% better next season, as they learn more and as Tremaine puts on some muscle. This will be an off-season unlike any in recent memory. No significant free agent losses (Lorenzo and Kyle are the only big names, and they'll either retire or stay, I would think, plus J. Phillips, Miller, Groy and Mills), some significant free agent additions, and probably as many as a half dozen rookies who will see significant minutes.

Agreed. After I posted, I began wondering if Nick Saban has texted Daboll yet. "Hey, Brian, what the hell? You have this kid at Alabama and he catches 14 passes in an entire season. Then you have him in Buffalo, and he catches 19 in five games!" To which Daboll probably responded, "Well, Coach, if you'd said 'yes' seven years ago when Josh Allen asked if he could be your quarterback, Foster would have caught more than 14 passes for you." I've been developing my theory about crowd noise on TV vs. in the stadium. I think TV sets up their crowd noise microphones some places around the lower level. I sit in the second row in the upper deck. Most of the empty seats were in the upper deck, so what I heard on Sunday was noticeably quieter than for sellouts. But on the lower level, where closer to all the seats were full, the noise level that the tv microphones pick up probably is about the same as if it had been a sellout. I always wonder what the players hear. Sometimes I think all the noise that's made in the upper deck just goes out and up and doesn't add a lot to the noise that the lower level makes. That is, I think I should just shut up and let the lower level people do all the work!

You may be right, and I hope you are, but I doubt it. The guy was a star talent coming out of high school and got the very best possible coaching in college. He spent his formative football years in the exact same environment Amari Cooper, and more or less the same environment as Julio Jones, but he couldn't produce anything even remotely comparable to either of them. They were drafted fourth and sixth overall. Foster, with the same coaching and training, caught 14 passes in his best season at Alabama. No pro football team thought he was worth spending even a 7th round pick on him. In other words, with all the apparent talent that a Cooper or a Jones had, and with all the opportunities and coaching that those guys had, Foster was unable to accomplish anything that was on the same planet as those guys. If he couldn't learn to be a standout receiver in five years at Alabama, I have trouble seeing what it is that's going to turn him into a star in the NFL.

I've expressed my view before - most of the players on all NFL teams are average NFL players, with great size and athletic ability compared to us normal humans. But among themselves, most of them don't stand out. All three of those guys fit in that category so far as I can tell. None of them is going to be a top-10 receiver, but one or two or all three will make it in the league and have positive careers for a few years. That's how the NFL works. So you get a guy like Robert Woods or Chris Hogan who, when he gets to the right team with a good QB and a system he fits, does well. McDermott, Daboll and Allen will be the ones, really, who determine whether those guys have careers in Buffalo.

Wow. Anyway, I'm a McDermott fan. I have blasted him a few times, like about all the penalties his team has amassed. He's all about discipline, and the penalties suggest something has been amiss. I talk about his conservative approach to some things, but I don't criticize him for it. I tend to agree with a conservative approach. I like the process. I think he knows what he's doing. I like his defensive style. It's fundamental and aggressive. So I don't get where you think I have a bias against McD.

I agree. It's a nice start. I'm not a fan of burning a high first-round pick on a receiver. The high-profile glamour receivers aren't winning Super Bowls. I do think one way or another there will a receiver added who will take a starting job from at least of the three the Bills have now. That is there'll be an upgrade, but I hope it's not with a high pick.

I agree. And Allen is just a rookie. He has a lot to learn. Actually, there's a part of me that wants McKEnzie, Jones and Foster to be the starting receivers next season just so Allen will work with the same receivers for an entire off-season and season. I think that alone would show improvement over this season. In fact, I'd be astonished if the starting wideouts next season were those three. Someone better will show up, in free agency or the draft. Others have commented over the past few weeks, and it fits in this discussion, about how it's hard to remember one great catch this season. We're not seeing many out and out drops, but we aren't seeing great catches from any of these guys. I expect there'll be a better pass catcher somewhere in the lineup.

I saw somewhere a week ago or so a comment from McDermott that they've trying to get Allen to be satisfied with the more or less sure short ball more often.

There were a lot of empty seats.

I simply can't agree. The guy is doing too many of things that we've wanted a QB to do for years. His ability to hit open receivers consistently over the middle and on the sideline, 10 to 20 yards downfield is enough to convince me. I'll be amazed if he isn't a top-15 QB next season.

So here's a scenario for you: Bills beat the Pats and they're tied with the Dolphins half way through the third quarter. Jets are romping over the Pats. I'm putting McDermott on a temporary leave of absence and bringing in Rex as the fourth quarter interim head coach, so that Rex can lead the tank job that leaves the Pats out of the playoffs. That's a 70.1 passer rating, which puts him in EJ rookie territory. I think the passer rating is the best way to evaluate QBs statistically, flaws or not, and 70.1 ain't cutting it. However, I think there are plenty of legitimate explanations for it. I'm relying on what I'm seeing, and I think he's a star in the making.

Yes, but if the Bills and Jets both beat the Pats, does a Bills loss to Miami put the Dolphins in and knock the Pats out altogether?

Looking at the standings, I'm sure you are correct and I was wrong. They had a shot at 8-8, and there aren't many teams with nine wins or more. So they had wild-card shot. Hmmm. That makes it a better win for the Bills.

Thanks. You make a really good point. I'm not sure either you nor I know whether he's a conservative coach or he's a smart coach being conservative now because that gives his team the best chance to win. I've said often the past few weeks that I hope and expect he'll open up more next season, when he should have stronger offense. One of the reasons I say he's conservative (or at least playing the season conservatively) is that it seems very clear to me that he doesn't seem to care much if his team scores in the first half, so long as he keeps the game close. He doesn't take risks in the first half. I call that conservative. I get it, and I don't particularly dislike it, but it isn't wide open football in the first half. And, although I agree it's unfair to conclude he's Jauron all over again, Jauron's philosophy very definitely was stay close until the end, which meant play good defense and don't take chances on offense. Until McDermott's team starts regularly putting up 21-point first halves, I think that at least that part of his coaching style can be called conservative. Also, EVERY coach whose team is out of the playoff hunt is going for it on fourth down now, so I wasn't surprised when he did it yesterday. It didn't take any courage to take that shot. Plus, his certainly looks like a bend-don't-break defense, which is a conservative approach. Now, that too may change as his talent improves and his guys know his system. Still, I think what you say is probably true. Next year we'll know, because next year he should have a roster with players he wants playing the way he wants to play. Then we'll know better.

As always, Virg, this is really good, insightful stuff. A couple comments. Rushing? It was all about the line opening holes. McCoy hasn't seen running room like that any time this season. And since the run game was getting five or six on first down, it meant that the Bills could stick with the run game, rather than going to the pass because it's 2nd and nine. I think you're too hard on Daboll. I think there's a lot of learning going on all over the team, including McDermott and Daboll. They're both relatively inexperienced at the job, just like Allen is. The offense keeps opening up, week after week. They ran that nifty little inside handoff to Ray-Ray that was a nice wrinkle. Plus, he has a rookie QB. I think he's doing just fine, and I think you'll see the offense take some big strides next season. I'm not troubled by White at all. I guess I don't think of him as a flawless shut-down corner. Those are few and far between. Everyone gets beat sometimes on those slants and square ins. He was in great position on some of the completions against him and just was outfought for the ball by big strong guys. You're right about Poyer. I wrote about Alexander, you picked Poyer. There's nothing wrong with Clay that turning the football clock back five years wouldn't fix. Tight end play has evolved in the league, and it's evolved away from guys with Clay's size and skill set. Croom is the opposite extreme, but because he's more in line with where tight end play has gone, he's proving to be more useful.

You're right! Thanks.

I agree, but you can't deny it's much more exciting to see him drop back to pass than to hand it off.

Yeah, that was something I didn't comment on. I have a different take than you. I DID think it was odd that they're down to one running back and they come out in the second half and run Ford (or pass to him) about five consecutive plays. I think there were two or three things going on there. They finally took him out and put in DiMarco, and I thought "now they'll pass." Nope, run DiMarco off right tackle. First, their game plan. I think they thought they could run on the Lions, and they were sticking to their plan. It worked. Second, McDermott is conservative. As long as the game is close, he wants to run clock. I don't like it, but that's what he does. I hope that next season, with a comfortable QB entrenched in the starting role, with an OC who's now got his feet under him, McDermott will begin to open things up. Allen's too big a weapon to not to let him throw more.

The Bills put in a workmanlike day on the job Sunday, and beat the Lions 14-13 at New Era Field. It was, so far as the 2018 season is concerned, a meaningless game, and it had that feel. Both teams were out of the playoff picture and were evenly matched. Tough defenses and offenses that have struggled. For the fans and even, it seemed, the officials, it was just something to do for a few hours on a Sunday afternoon in December. For the coaches and players, of course, it was serious business. How serious? How about Isaiah McKenzie, who cramped up so badly AND sprained his ankle that he had to be carted off the field to the locker room? McKenzie was back on the field fifteen minutes later, with heavily taped around his cleats, clearly pushing himself through the pain, returning punts so that Micah Hyde, also banged up, wouldn’t have to. I’ve been so focused on Josh Allen this season that I’ve intentionally not thought all that much about Brandon Beane’s and Sean McDermott’s parade of young hopefuls. Well, McKenzie made me stop and take notice when he returned to the game. It’s not that I hadn’t been aware of the plays McKenzie’s has been making over the past few weeks. The guy clearly has the talent to do damage in the NFL. But to be honest, it’s been easy to think of him for now as just another young, fast guy with some skills who might but probably won’t play well enough to be a long-term keeper. Bills fans have seen plenty of those. Getting back on the field said something different about the guy. It’s not like he’s an unknown rookie in the fourth preseason game who desperately wants a chance to make one more play that might be the difference between making the roster and getting cut. He’s put more than enough quality plays on tape this season, including against the Lions, to be at or near the top of the depth chart going into the 2019 off-season. No, this wasn’t about that. It was about heart and commitment to his coaches and his teammates. This was about winning, because there was nothing more important to him. Count me in as a newly-minted McKenzie fan. And put another check mark in the plus column for Beane and McDermott, for fostering the kind of environment where guys with that kind of heart and commitment are driving the effort to get better. And while we’re passing out kudos, how about a nod to Doug Whaley for signing Lorenzo Alexander in 2016? If ever there was a guy in a position to mail it in, it was Lorenzo Alexander on Sunday. Here’s a guy probably at the end of his career, or at a minimum no longer playing for the next big-money, multi-year deal, playing for a team that is all about the future, a future that Alexander probably won’t be a part of. Well, if the game he played on Sunday was what mailing it in looks like, I just became a fan of the U.S. Postal Service. Alexander was everywhere, making tackles, defending passes. He made a great effort trying to knock down a pass in the fourth quarter, diving and extending for a ball just out of his reach. It was a spectacular game for Alexander. Who knows what his future is, but if he’s in the League next season, I hope it’s with the Bills, youth movement or not. If you want to talk about mailing it in, let’s talk officiating. Two teams averaging a combined 13 penalties a game rack up a total of SEVEN? Were all the officials sleeping when Slay interfered with Zay Jones on the right sideline in the fourth quarter? Did they somehow wake up on the Bills’ very next play from scrimmage and call interference on a throw to Zay on the left sideline, a play that looked like pretty good defense? And how about spotting the ball on Ford’s third-and-two run when the Bills were trying to run out the clock? The outcome of the game was hanging on that spot, and it seemed like the officials said to themselves, “oh, whatever. Let’s just give him the first down and get out of here.” It was fun to see a game without a lot of penalties, but I would have like it better if I had some confidence that the officials actually were watching the game. The crowd more or less mailed it in, too. For December in Buffalo, it was a pretty nice day. Very little rain, temperature comfortably above freezing. Still, there were a lot of empty seats, and between the empty seats and the “we’re-out-of-the-playoffs-again” attitude, crowd noise was down considerably The end zone fans got into it pretty well when the defense needed a boost at either of the field, but the steady third-down roar that makes New Era special was missing for most of the game. Fans had a good time, they loved the win, but the usual intensity was missing. Still, everything about the Bills is different this season, even the meaningless games, and it’s all about Josh Allen. For the first time in nearly two decades, the Bills are a threat to win any game, simply because they’re putting Josh Allen on the field. Is he playing like a rookie? Yes, sometimes he is. Getting sacked out of field goal range is a classic rookie mistake. Holding the ball above his head and fumbling while he’s scrambling is a classic rookie mistake, although it may have a risk worth taking on fourth down. There are plenty of things that need work, some that fans see and plenty more that only coaches see. All those things that need work are the reason Allen’s stats are as bad as they are. His season passer rating at 65.5 tells it all. He’s throwing more INTs than TDs, his completion percentage is below where it needs to be, he’s been sacked 27 times in little more than half a season. It’s a classic rookie profile. (By the way, it’s the same profile Sam Darnold has, and the same profile Jared Goff had as a rookie in 2016.). Only Baker Mayfield among the rookies has stepped into the league playing like a keeper. Since returning from his injury, Allen has looked good in two wins and looked bad, at least statistically, in two losses. Some commentators actually thought the losses to the Dolphins and Jets were two of his better games. Despite the up-and-down nature of the Bills for the last several weeks, experts and fans around the country have begun to see that Allen has what it takes. He showed it all again on Sunday. With Allen, there seems to be very little confusion in the huddle or at the line of scrimmage, at least no confusion that Allen doesn’t recognize and straighten out. That’s a great first step for a rookie, but there’s plenty more to learn. Allen showed off another gutty run for a touchdown. A plus. Except that you want your QB to learn to find SOMEONE and throw it. In fact, he may have had Foster running the back of end zone. (Foster is a smart route runner and, like McKenzie, has punched his ticket to the top of the 2019 preseason depth charts.) There were more than a handful of outstanding throws. The non-interference throw to Zay and the interference throw on the next play from scrimmage. The deep interference throw to Foster. The touchdown to Foster. Multiple throws over the middle. Allen is getting nice protection on a lot of throws now, and when he stands in the pocket, he’s calm and comfortable, he knows where the play is going and he delivers the ball. Perfect? Far from it. The deep ball off Thompson’s hands was spectacular, but that pass is a lot easier for receivers to handle if it’s thrown with a little more arc and a little less velocity. Similarly the next throw to Zay over the middle. Yes, both should have been caught, and Josh’s receivers will learn, but the great quarterbacks also learn to make life easier for their receivers. To see how much Allen has to learn, all you had to do was watch the guy on the other side of the ball. I’m not a Matt Stafford fan, but, man, did he make a lot of nice throws! He played like a pro all day, and he was a botched extra point and a field goal miss away from the win. Still, I’ll take my guy. Allen is going places, and I’m ready. Meaningless or not, it sure feels good to wake up Monday morning knowing the Bills won and the Jets, the Dolphins AND the Patriots lost. Even better, it’s great knowing the Bills have a future. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

I always liked Sestak, but was told one day that the reason he starred was because Jim Dunaway was double-teamed on more or less every play. Those were some good football players, and Shaw too. I'm proud to keep his name on display.

I can't imagine the Bills would trade for Peterson. McBeane are completely about building through the draft. I don't see them trading picks for players. Their style is to trade players for picks. What I expect to see is the Bills keeping or adding to their picks. I expect they'll be active in free agency, going after guys coming off their first contracts, but not older guys. (With a possible exception here or there.)

I agree. And for those who don't think knowing how to close out games is a "thing," do you think having a losing attitude is a "thing"? A "winning attitude"? Attitude has a lot to do with performance.