Shaw66

The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66 Bills Still Have A Lot to Work On So some old friends came to town Saturday to see their son play for Arizona against the UConn men. They got me a ticket and I went to the game. At 1:00 p.m. I went to a sports bar after the game and caught the fourth quarter of the Bills’ loss to Dolphins. I haven’t watched any video except a few highlights. I haven’t even studied the stats. In case you’re interested, Arizona won, but the UConn men are back! Dan Hurley’s the new coach, and he’s for real. The roster is the same but their game is TOTALLY different. Don’t sleep on the Huskies. How am I feeling about the Bills? Great! Why? Because it’s all about the QB – everything else is just details, and I’m confident that McDermott and Beane will get the details straightened out over the next year or two. It’s all about the QB, and – MAN – the guy can play! Watching the Bills with Allen on the field is a completely different experience from watching the Bills any other time since Bledsoe left. The whole offense looks better. Six weeks ago my cousin told me Zay Jones would not make the roster of any other NFL team. He isn’t saying that now. Foster looks like a real receiver. The pass protection is better. Allen has made the whole team better. I came away from the game with three important impressions, important at least to me: 1. I’ve said it before, but it’s worth repeating: McDermott is failing at his job in at least one big aspect, and that’s getting the penalties under control. These guys are killing themselves with penalties. 2. I’ve been saying for weeks that Allen isn’t making rookie mistakes. Well, the interception on the throw to Benjamin was a rookie mistake. No way that Allen should have missed that defender. Rookie mistakes are okay if (a) the guy making the mistake is a rookie and (b) he learns from them. I hope Allen learned something. 3. Allen is a spectacular passer, but spectacular isn’t good enough if he isn’t consistent. He can’t overthrow Foster on the deep ball, and he can’t underthrow Clay on the fourth down game winner. He can’t be a star in the league if he doesn’t make those throws. No one connects on every throw, and the overthrow of Foster was awfully close. Brady, Brees and Rodgers might have overthrown him. Still, gotta hit them. Yes, Clay could have caught that ball to win the game, and I’m sure he said he should have caught it. He’s caught balls like that before. But that’s beside the point; that play was all on Allen. Yes, he made an outstanding scramble to give himself time to make the throw – most QBs would have been sacked at some point on that play. But then he turned into a rookie. He had time – he’d run away from everyone, and he had plenty of time to get his body turned and his feet set, particularly important because he had been running left and now was throwing right. And when he found Clay he could see that Clay was all alone with a lot of open space toward the sideline. Allen had plenty of time to turn, set his feet and get the ball to Clay for an uncontested catch. It was a long throw, to be sure – it traveled about 50 yards in the air, and to make it an easy catch for Clay it needed to go 55 maybe 60 yards. Allen, properly set, can make that throw all day. I think Allen let the moment beat him. He knew he had it, but he didn’t have his emotions sufficiently under control to stop and make the play he should have. Brady, Brees and Rodgers would have made it. It was a rookie mistake. It cost the Bills the game, and he knows it. All I know is that watching the Bills is FUN again. I’d forgotten how much fun it can be, after all those years of watching all those other teams with all those other quarterbacks. I’m going to miss most of the Jets game, too, but I’ll be in Buffalo for the Lions. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

I predict people around here will be disappointed by the Bills in free agency. 1. They believe in building through the draft. 2. They don't like big contracts, except for QBs. (I don'tknow this - I'm guessing.) 3. They want guys who are willing to buy into the process; a lot of guys don't. 4. They don't want guys who aren't good candidates for the process, guys like Ramsey and Beckham. I think it all adds up to not many big name guys and more Trent Murphys and the like. That's the kind of guy they want. Guys who understand that's who they are will want to play for McDermott, because that's what he appreciates. Another reason they will sign less well known players is that they are patient. They stick to the discipline, too. They are willing to stay with guys a while because they believe he will grow. Some coaches would have cut Foster, he looked so bad. McD was willing to wait. Bottom line is I think guys who understand what McBeane are doing, guys who want to be part of that, will come even though it's Buffalo. They want to be part of the system McBeane are building. Whether it works, that's a different question. Just because you have a system, it doesn't mean that you have the right system. But they are going to stick with the system, the process, for as long as they're in Buffalo. And I'd guess the Pegulas gave them at least three years.

Didn't go a lot before; even less now.

One thing I keep saying is that McD is a closet Belichick worshiper. McD has his own system, but his objective is to have a team that functions like Belichick's. So let me ask you this: When was the last time you saw one of Belichick's players run his mouth like Ramsey? Right, like, never. Don't expect to see any player who behaves like Ramsey in a Bills uniform.

I've been pondering this comment, and its depth and complexity deserves some kind of prize. You've left me with nothing to say.

The night of the draft, my order of preference was Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Allen. With Mayfield and Darnold gone, when the Bills traded up, at the last moment I waffled and decided I wanted Allen over Rosen. We don't know what order Beane had them in, but we can now see that Beane knew what he was getting in Allen.

I agree with you. I'm the only one who's truly objective!!!! I don't know 10% of what McD knows about football, but I know this: McD's approach is do your job and eliminate mistakes. Now, I can't tell if a guy is doing his job. I don't know what he isn't doing that McD wants him to do, like making a downfield read presnap, but most of us can see most of the mistakes. QB is the position where some of the mistakes are pretty obvious. I'm not seeing Allen making the obvious mistakes; all I'm seeing is positive. Sure, there are any number of things that could go wrong with Allen over the next three years, which means there are no guarantees about his career, but I can tell you two things for sure: 1. He's a higher probability success right now than he was on draft night. He is out playing Darnold and Rosen, and good as Mayfield has played, plenty of people would take Allen over Mayfield in a draft today. 2. The media may not be talking about Allen, but the guys whose job it is to study film for the Dolphins, Jets and Lions are talking about him. They're seeing a guy who can make all the throws, who has the ability to extend plays and who is finding receivers down field. Those guys watching film aren't saying Allen is "raw" or a "project." They're going to the DC and saying "look at this," and the DC is game planning for Allen.

One other thing I forgot in the OP. Daboll. I don't think the change in the offense was caused all by Allen. Well, maybe it was. The change to the speedier receiver corps accompanied a change in the plays they were running. The jet sweep was real, the quick screens, the deep crossing routes. Maybe it's just that they only run with those pass plays with a strong-armed quarterback. Whatever, it seemed to me that the offense had more of an up-tempo feel, more modern. Another hopeful sign.

My goodness!!! You got a bit worked up about this didn't you? You described a whole side of this - his leadership, that we all hope for and wondered about. But as you say so well, the evidence is already there that he has what it takes. You're right about Allen and Fitzy. Fitzy was a big time competitor and it showed on the field every play. Allen is showing it, too, with a different skill set. But we're Bills fans, and we've learned to expect the worst. This can't be, can it? We're all afraid to say it. Everything feels different when he's in the game.

You can be sure the message is "don't take chances unless it's important." What he needs to do is refine his judgment about what's important - right now he seems to think every play is important. Plus, the play calling has to change. Those two zone reads down on the goal line late in the game need to go. The TD wasn't as important as his health, so they shouldn't be calling his number down there. Some other situation, maybe, but not that one. There's a cumulative effect to taking those hits, and the Bills shouldn't be adding to the number of hits needlessly.

Yeah, it's pretty surprising to see him going as fast as he does. He doesn't have great acceleration in the way that the quick sprinters have, but on the other hand it only takes him a few strides to get up to speed. I think his speed comes his size and athletic ability. Big guys have long legs, long legs result in big strides, and big strides let you cover more ground than smaller strides. But it's harder athletically to get a big body going and doing all the stuff needed to take advantage of the bigger strides. Only really good athletes can do it, and Allen turns out to be one of those. The extreme example is Usain Bolt (no, I'm not saying Allen runs like Bolt). But Bolt combines size with athletic ability, and the smaller athletes simply have no chance to go as fast as he does.

Ducky - In response to you and transplant and others: I'm a big believer that the passer rating tells us a lot about how good a QB is. The best QBs all have good passer ratings, and some not so good QBs may have a good passer rating now and then but don't stay up in the top 10-15. Allen's passer rating is nowhere in the range it needs to be by those standards, so I thought a lot about whether to say the things I did about him before i started writing. I just kept going back to the games, thinking about the plays and asking myself about the bad plays he made (I had trouble finding many), and if he wasn't making bad plays, why was he 8 for 19? Bottom line for me: 1. He's showing some great, great stuff. Throwing ability, poise and awareness, decision making, leadership. 2. He ISN'T showing rookie mistakes. Not taking dumb sacks, snot making dumb throws, not getting confused at the line of scrimmage. 3. His shortcomings are, as I said talking with someone here, that he isn't a veteran yet. The details, the little things, the things that veterans see and do that create three or four completions a game that rookies don't get, or that result in 20 yard gains instead of seven, he isn't seeing and doing that yet. It would be a miracle if he were. But I'm confident that will come, because he's clearly a competitor and a guy who wants to do better. And his Wonderlic score says that he has the kind of brain that will allow him to do it.

I have no problem with Shady. I'm not seeing runs where I think "two years ago, he makes that cut." Shady's running style is based on using his quickness in space. He has to have one man, not two, to beat, and a little space to move in. He's rarely in any space this season. Like everyone else, I'm assuming they'll upgrade the offensive line next season, and then you'll see two things: 1. The old Shady. 2. Allen throwing from the pocket. I don't think he's lost anything. But I think you've touched on the important point, which is that MOST defenses are getting quicker. They're playing safeties at linebacker, linebackers as DEs. And they're scheming more. So Shady's running style may be as effective as it was five years ago.

I don't like his haircut.

I think there were several things going on on that play. One was he didn't want the penalty. But another was that he wanted turn Bortles to the inside in hopes of tackling him in bounds. Bortles mad a nice move on that play.

Thanks for the interesting comments, as always. For sure, like any QB who is decently mobile, the coaches are telling him that when the defense is in man and they're all running away from you, running for the yardage makes sense. There's no question in my mind that Allen is always thinking about the run. As the offense gets better, I think they'll cut back on the designed runs, and I'm also sure they're continuing to tell him to slide more. He took an unnecessary hit on his long scramble. Should have gotten out of bounds two yards earlier. McDermott and Beane watched as Newton got banged up with his aggressive running style, and they know in Allen they have a better passer and field general than Newton. They aren't going to mess with the franchise. Which leads us back to the offensive line. You can be sure that as they watch Allen do this stuff, they're thinking he needs better protection and a better running game. I'd say Julio would be an upgrade.

You're right. But the national media will stop their analysis at 8 for 19 and a passer rating under 90. I realize now that yesterday I was sitting just wanting the defense to hurry up and get the ball back to Allen. Earlier this season I'd be hoping for a pick 6, because it was the only we'd score.

A good. The coaches aren't stupid. They know what they have. With Peterman playing, yeah, they were desperate to run the ball. They aren't so desperate now. It wasn't an accident that the speed receivers - Foster, McKenzie and Thompson, and Croom at tight end - were on the field so much. The coaches know that with Allen on the field, if receivers can get open, they're going to get the ball. OOH, OOH, OOH!!! One more thing I forgot to say. How cool was the jet sweep touchdown run by McKenzie, when he got to the edge and it was clear he could sprint to the corner without help, and the two receivers out there each cut down their men simultaneously!!!?!? It looked like a choreographed bowling trick shot, taking down the 7-10 with two balls. Talk about execution.

The Bills TRIED to give him 25 attempts yesterday. Between the throws he had that were called back and the passing plays where he ended up scrambling, he would have had 25. Thanks. Reading. Embrace it.

All year he's had trouble with his touch on some of the short throws. Seems pretty clear to me that with his natural throwing motion gets too much on the ball for short throws, and he hasn't learned yet how to dial it down. I'd expect that during the off season he'll work on his technique for shorter throws.

I don't think the 12th man on the field was Crossman's mistake. Here's what I think happened: I think Yarbrough starts on the punt return team. At least I'm guessing that. Yarbrough got dinged about five minutes before on some defensive play. Looked like he might have a concussion. They took him off the field and into the tent. They did whatever they do and decided he was okay. While he's off the field, Crossman knows he's down a player on the punt return team, so he tells the backup for Yarbrough's spot to be ready. Jags get to fourth down, and the Bills send the punt receiving team onto the field, with the sub in for Yarbrough. Someplace right around this time the docs tell Yarbrough he's good to go. He comes out of the tent, and sees the punt return team on the field. He knows that's his assignment, he's able to play, so he runs onto the field late. He doesn't know, doesn't have any way to know, really, that Crossman's already substituted for him. So Yarbrough heads out onto the field, someone realizes the problem, he turns around to get off, but it's too late. It's essentially a detail that got missed. Someone needed to be on the sideline telling Yarbrough that he's out until someone sends him in. I think it's just one of those things that happen in games.

Watching him yesterday I figured out for the first time that Shady doesn't dance. Shady waits, like LeVeon Bell waits. But while Shady waits he's pumping his feet so when he decides where he's going he's ready to make the cut. That is, he doesn't dance out of indecision. He's just waiting. And when he realizes there's no place for him to break free, he moves forward to get what he can get. He's getting no opportunities. Now, Ivory runs with a different style and had more success yesterday, because he just takes off for the hole and makes the most of it, breaking a tackle here and there. Ivory's not going to get the big plays we all know Shady is capable of of.

You're talking about not doing some things that veterans do, and I agree about that. I'm talking about mistakes that only rookies make. Misreading defenses, bad decisions in the pocket, that sort of stuff. The stuff rookies do that they either outgrow or they go to the bench. Allen's not having THOSE moments. He's definitely NOT making all the veteran plays we want him to make. One that I keep thinking about from yesterday is the throw over the middle to Thompson, the one he caught but the defender knocked the ball out. Great throw, right on the money. Brady and Rodgers and Brees don't make that throw. They throw it a little short, a little lower, so the receiver can come back to the ball a bit and run away from the defender a bit. A slightly lower throw would have allowed Thompson the chance to catch it and prepare for the hit. I don't expect Allen to make that throw as a rookie, but I expect he will learn.

Got it. That makes more sense. Thanks

I think he looks like an oversized safety. I really think the plan is to get his playing weight up about 15 pounds - he's so young, that he should be able to carry with no problem. When that happens, he won't get pushed around so much, and his tackles will be more authoritative. Look, I'm not arguing with you, but I think that this label for Allen is bs. That's what we heard about him all through the draft the process and since. Allen is "raw." What does that mean? The reality is that, so far, he's shown that after training camp and preseason, he was more ready to play than all the others except Mayfield. Mayfield is playing like pro, and Allen is right behind him. Rosen was supposed to be the most NFL ready, he's throwing to Larry friggin FItzgerald and he's been a pick machine. Darnold has slumped badly. The Bills evaluated Allen's football sophistication before the draft and realized that he had much better football smarts than the media coverage suggested. We're seeing it on the field. He has had very few rookie moments.