Shaw66

I don't disagree with this, but it's all irrelevant when the team is on the field. Do you think that Allen on the field isn't aware that Clay needs a more precise pass than Croom? I'm sure he is. I haven't said and am not saying there's anything wrong with Allen. I'm a big Allen fan. We're talking about a single play on the football field. The truth is that where Allen put the ball, with Clay in the route, is a relatively low probability completion because Clay in 2018 doesn't make tough catches as often as he should. Allen knew that before the throw and after the throw. Should he not have made the throw? No, he made the right throw. That's his job. But if you ask him, speaking frankly he will tell you that he has to throw it better because Clay was the receiver. It's just the reality of playing games. Steph Curry wants every pass he makes to be perfect, but he knows Clay Thompson will handle the inaccurate pass better than Dramond Green.

Actually, I do know this. It was regularly commented on by offensive and defensive players during Elway's career. The receivers said it took nearly a year to get used to it, and it was obvious watching defenders be unprepared when the ball arrived.

This wasn't true for Elway. His receivers learned to look just a little quicker and to handle the speed. The defenders never got used to it because they couldn't practice it. It gave Elway an edge that others didn't have. Actually, Mc and Foster aren't targeted over the middle like Zay and Clay. Those are the throws that are getting on the receivers quickly. And Zay is catching them. Clay is having trouble with them. None of the Bills receivers are worldbeaters, and upgrades will be welcome.

Oh, yeah. He's gotta go. Allen needs a better option. But that's the future. Right now, you play with the guys you have.

True, but that's meaningless. If you paid me that money, I still wouldn't have caught the ball. Talking about the money is about whether a GM's decision turned out well, not about what to expect from players on the field.

Oldman Read what I said. I wasnt talking about "fault." I'm talking about the reality of the game. It's a simple fact that Clay's catch radius is completely different from Odell Beckham's. That means you're going to have higher completion percentage throwing to Beckham. If Allen is running that play and sees his tight end, hes going to try to make an accurate throw, like he tries on every play. But he knows that if Clay is the tight end, his probability of completing an Inaccurate pass is lower than if it's Croom. It's a question of reality, not fault. The simple fact is that Clay running across the field at full speed isn't good at catching balls outside a relatively small catch radius.

I agree he should make that catch and has in the past. And I agree he was better earlier in his career. Since he cMe into the league, the game has been asking tight ends to become better receivers, and he hasn't developed that way. He's maybe gone in the other direction. Ckay needs the ball just right if you're going to expect him to catch it.

Of course the solution is to have a better tight end. But until you do, if you want a high probability of a catch, the throw has to be better. What you said is like saying it isn't Allen's fault when he overthrows a receiver when the receiver isn't fast enough to get to the ball. You can only play the game with the players you have. When Clay is your tight end, you should expect those drops.

You're correct that Allen needs to take something off some throws. But it's also true that receivers have to learn to catch his zingers. It's a real advantage sometimes to get the ball there fast. The receivers will learn this next year, with Allen getting all the first team reps. And DBs and LBs aren't used to catching balls with a lot of zip, so Allen's fastball also cuts down on INTs. Elway had that advantage.

I'm glad someone said this. Great catches are great because most receivers don't make them. Most good receivers miss tough balls more often than they catch them. It makes no sense to call everything a receiver touches and doesn't catch a drop. Take the throw over the middle that Clay didn't catch discussed early in this thread. You have to consider who the receiver is. That is a ball I expect Zay to catch, but not necessarily Clay. He isn't very athletic, and running at full speed across the field and going down for the ball is a tough play for him. The truth is that Clay just isn't an good modern tight end. He's more blocker and less receiver than today's game demands. He fit the game 10 years ago better. Allen knows that throws to Clay have to be better than throws to some other guys.

I agree. Phillips is entertaining. I worry he's a little on the edge, but it seems he's a fit with McD. Point is, even if Philliips goes, in terms of talent, the Bills will be net winners by a lot in 2018, not net losers.

Thanks, Freddy - That's a great post. I'm expecting Josh and Tremaine to be 10-20% better next season, as they learn more and as Tremaine puts on some muscle. This will be an off-season unlike any in recent memory. No significant free agent losses (Lorenzo and Kyle are the only big names, and they'll either retire or stay, I would think, plus J. Phillips, Miller, Groy and Mills), some significant free agent additions, and probably as many as a half dozen rookies who will see significant minutes.

Agreed. After I posted, I began wondering if Nick Saban has texted Daboll yet. "Hey, Brian, what the hell? You have this kid at Alabama and he catches 14 passes in an entire season. Then you have him in Buffalo, and he catches 19 in five games!" To which Daboll probably responded, "Well, Coach, if you'd said 'yes' seven years ago when Josh Allen asked if he could be your quarterback, Foster would have caught more than 14 passes for you." I've been developing my theory about crowd noise on TV vs. in the stadium. I think TV sets up their crowd noise microphones some places around the lower level. I sit in the second row in the upper deck. Most of the empty seats were in the upper deck, so what I heard on Sunday was noticeably quieter than for sellouts. But on the lower level, where closer to all the seats were full, the noise level that the tv microphones pick up probably is about the same as if it had been a sellout. I always wonder what the players hear. Sometimes I think all the noise that's made in the upper deck just goes out and up and doesn't add a lot to the noise that the lower level makes. That is, I think I should just shut up and let the lower level people do all the work!

You may be right, and I hope you are, but I doubt it. The guy was a star talent coming out of high school and got the very best possible coaching in college. He spent his formative football years in the exact same environment Amari Cooper, and more or less the same environment as Julio Jones, but he couldn't produce anything even remotely comparable to either of them. They were drafted fourth and sixth overall. Foster, with the same coaching and training, caught 14 passes in his best season at Alabama. No pro football team thought he was worth spending even a 7th round pick on him. In other words, with all the apparent talent that a Cooper or a Jones had, and with all the opportunities and coaching that those guys had, Foster was unable to accomplish anything that was on the same planet as those guys. If he couldn't learn to be a standout receiver in five years at Alabama, I have trouble seeing what it is that's going to turn him into a star in the NFL.

I've expressed my view before - most of the players on all NFL teams are average NFL players, with great size and athletic ability compared to us normal humans. But among themselves, most of them don't stand out. All three of those guys fit in that category so far as I can tell. None of them is going to be a top-10 receiver, but one or two or all three will make it in the league and have positive careers for a few years. That's how the NFL works. So you get a guy like Robert Woods or Chris Hogan who, when he gets to the right team with a good QB and a system he fits, does well. McDermott, Daboll and Allen will be the ones, really, who determine whether those guys have careers in Buffalo.

Wow. Anyway, I'm a McDermott fan. I have blasted him a few times, like about all the penalties his team has amassed. He's all about discipline, and the penalties suggest something has been amiss. I talk about his conservative approach to some things, but I don't criticize him for it. I tend to agree with a conservative approach. I like the process. I think he knows what he's doing. I like his defensive style. It's fundamental and aggressive. So I don't get where you think I have a bias against McD.

I agree. It's a nice start. I'm not a fan of burning a high first-round pick on a receiver. The high-profile glamour receivers aren't winning Super Bowls. I do think one way or another there will a receiver added who will take a starting job from at least of the three the Bills have now. That is there'll be an upgrade, but I hope it's not with a high pick.

I agree. And Allen is just a rookie. He has a lot to learn. Actually, there's a part of me that wants McKEnzie, Jones and Foster to be the starting receivers next season just so Allen will work with the same receivers for an entire off-season and season. I think that alone would show improvement over this season. In fact, I'd be astonished if the starting wideouts next season were those three. Someone better will show up, in free agency or the draft. Others have commented over the past few weeks, and it fits in this discussion, about how it's hard to remember one great catch this season. We're not seeing many out and out drops, but we aren't seeing great catches from any of these guys. I expect there'll be a better pass catcher somewhere in the lineup.

I saw somewhere a week ago or so a comment from McDermott that they've trying to get Allen to be satisfied with the more or less sure short ball more often.

There were a lot of empty seats.

I simply can't agree. The guy is doing too many of things that we've wanted a QB to do for years. His ability to hit open receivers consistently over the middle and on the sideline, 10 to 20 yards downfield is enough to convince me. I'll be amazed if he isn't a top-15 QB next season.

So here's a scenario for you: Bills beat the Pats and they're tied with the Dolphins half way through the third quarter. Jets are romping over the Pats. I'm putting McDermott on a temporary leave of absence and bringing in Rex as the fourth quarter interim head coach, so that Rex can lead the tank job that leaves the Pats out of the playoffs. That's a 70.1 passer rating, which puts him in EJ rookie territory. I think the passer rating is the best way to evaluate QBs statistically, flaws or not, and 70.1 ain't cutting it. However, I think there are plenty of legitimate explanations for it. I'm relying on what I'm seeing, and I think he's a star in the making.

Yes, but if the Bills and Jets both beat the Pats, does a Bills loss to Miami put the Dolphins in and knock the Pats out altogether?

Looking at the standings, I'm sure you are correct and I was wrong. They had a shot at 8-8, and there aren't many teams with nine wins or more. So they had wild-card shot. Hmmm. That makes it a better win for the Bills.

Thanks. You make a really good point. I'm not sure either you nor I know whether he's a conservative coach or he's a smart coach being conservative now because that gives his team the best chance to win. I've said often the past few weeks that I hope and expect he'll open up more next season, when he should have stronger offense. One of the reasons I say he's conservative (or at least playing the season conservatively) is that it seems very clear to me that he doesn't seem to care much if his team scores in the first half, so long as he keeps the game close. He doesn't take risks in the first half. I call that conservative. I get it, and I don't particularly dislike it, but it isn't wide open football in the first half. And, although I agree it's unfair to conclude he's Jauron all over again, Jauron's philosophy very definitely was stay close until the end, which meant play good defense and don't take chances on offense. Until McDermott's team starts regularly putting up 21-point first halves, I think that at least that part of his coaching style can be called conservative. Also, EVERY coach whose team is out of the playoff hunt is going for it on fourth down now, so I wasn't surprised when he did it yesterday. It didn't take any courage to take that shot. Plus, his certainly looks like a bend-don't-break defense, which is a conservative approach. Now, that too may change as his talent improves and his guys know his system. Still, I think what you say is probably true. Next year we'll know, because next year he should have a roster with players he wants playing the way he wants to play. Then we'll know better.