Shaw66

Easy. First, Allen finishes the season in the top 15 in passer rating. Fitzpatrick and Rodgers did that last season and had 6 wins, so it's certainly possible. Second, defense ranks in the top 10. Third, have a few key injuries at the wrong time. Fourth, lose a game on a bad call. Fifth, play a really tough schedule - like the Browns get good, and the Jets do, along with the Pats. Like I've said, I think if they only win 6, there are some serious questions to be asked, and maybe the conclusion is the process isn't working or isn't being led by the right people. But if they're a legitimate 7-9 team, which means they're also a legitimate 9-7 team (because there's essentially no difference, and a ref blows a call to make the Bills 6-10, I don't think McBeane are at risk. Now, if I'm the Pegulas and ALL they are in 2019 is a legitimate 7-9, I may stick with them and with the process, but that doesn't mean I'm happy. If they finish 7-9, I think McBeane are on notice for 2020 - win or be gone. But I certainly can see scenarios where they are 6-10 this year and McBeane are back.

Do you mean you agree that's what happened or you agree that was the right thing to do? Whether it was right or not, I'm saying the Pegulas pretty much committed to McDermott for three years and I'm guessing that they jpretty much extended that commitment when the Bills made the playoffs. Not sure it was the right thing to do, but I think that's what happened. Nothing in writing, of course. I think that happened because making the playoffs took a tremendous amount of pressure off the Pegulas in Buffalo. Life would be hell right now if the Bengals hadn't pulled off that miracle. Anybody who works for me and does me that big of a favor has built up a lot of good will.

If I were Pegula, I wouldn't agree with you. There is NO coach since Bill Walsh whom I would expect to be able to compete with Belichick, so to set Belichick is the hurdle is to doom yourself to failure. You'll probably NEVER hire that coach. That's like saying until you get a QB as good as Brady, you keep cutting QBs. The reality is that in coaches, just like in QBs, you're trying to get a top 10 guy. A top-10 coach, a top-10 quarterback. Yes, the unfortunate reality is that in you're in the AFC east, you have to deal with Belichick twice a year. That shouldn't change how you evaluate your coach.

Yeah, I pretty much agree with this. The Bills win 5 games this season, it's pretty clear that something is wrong with the process or the people running it. I've said all along that I think McDermott is at risk with 6 wins and at serious risk with 5 (absent some unusual circumstances, like injuries to a lot of key players). I think, as you say, in the wild card race into at least December isn't essential, but not an unreasonable expectation. And I think, as you say, if they don't get to double digit wins in 2020, one or both of McBeane are in trouble. Not 2019, but 2020. By then, Allen and Edmunds are in their third seasons, the roster is completely of McBeane's making, McDermott should be well past rookie mistakes and should have assembled a quality coaching staff. If they aren't winning in 2020, something's wrong and it's almost certainly on McBeane.

In your world. When you buy a team, that's the way you can run it. It was completely clear to me, if not you, that McDermott had AT LEAST three years the day he was hired. And once he got to the playoffs, it was quite likely that three became four.

I think this is an important point, and it's why I said in a way this is McDermott's first season. This will be the first roster that is completely McBeane's. The few holdovers from REx's term are there because McBeane want them. Everyone else is now a guy they wanted. On top of that, everyone on the roster today (except the couple of free agent signings) knows the process and what's expected of them, and every guy who joins the team from here on out will learn from the veterans how this team operates. That's a different environment from McDermott's first year, and even to an extent last season. McBeane will tell you they don't have all the talent they want, but they now have the kind of players they want. I think the important point in all this is not just that this is what McBeane are doing, but that they talk to the Pegulas about it and the Pegulas understand this is what is happening. So the Pegulas' expectations are NOT that this will be a playoff team this season, although that might happen. Their expectation is that the team will be better than last season in ways that are consistent with the way McBeane are trying to build it.

A little bit of both. I'm going primarily on what I hear McBeane say, and I think a lot of fans aren't paying attention. They have a process, as we all know, and the more I watch what they're doing and what they're saying, it's clear that it's a long-term process of continuous improvement. It's based on setting performance objectives for each individual, not about setting outcomes for the team. For example, Beane has said over and over that they will be conservative in free agency. If your job depended on making the playoffs THIS YEAR and you had a ton of cap space, wouldn't you be buying every star player you could, blowing all your cap money this year? Why not? If you don't win this year, you're out, so why would you be saving any cap room for your successor? But he's been very clear about this. He has said over and over he's building for the long-term. He's gotta feel reasonably secure about his job to be taking that approach. So I have reached this conclusion from what I've seen and read. However, I also have a little inside information that suggests that (1) yes, as far as the Pegulas are concerned, McBeane must show real progress this year - there are no excuses, but (2) progress isn't necessarily measured in wins. I think that means things like the young players (Allen, Edmunds, White, Milano} have to take the next step, overall talent continues to improve, competitiveness in big games continues to improve - things like that.

Like I said, I understand that's what you want and what you would do as owner. And like I said, what I'm talking about is what I think the McBeane and the Pegulas are doing. You don't have to like it. You can disagree with it. But it's pretty ignorant of you to criticize fans for having the wrong attitude about this. I'm not talking about what I'd do; I'm talking about I think the Pegulas will do. The Pegulas made a huge mistake when they hired Rex. They figured that out. They took a different approach with this hire. Whether you like it or not, McDermott and then Beane sold the Pegulas the process, and the Pegulas bought it. Whether you like it or not, all indications are that all four of them still believe the process is the way to go. Whether you like it or not, Terry Pegula understands that building success takes time. It took him decades to earn $5 billion. So whether you like it or not, the Pegulas are going to measure success in terms of the process, not in terms of wins and losses. If McBeane say the process is on track, and if the Pegulas agree, no one's losing their job with 7 wins. Of course, if the Pegulas don't agree, then McBeane will be gone. My point only is that some other owners may fire their head coach based on one season's record; I don't think that's what the Pegulas are thinking. I spend it because I like going to the games. Pretty basic.

The NFL is a collection of 32 business owners, and it's only about wins in the way each owner decides it's about wins. Jerry Jones has stuck with Howdy Doody down there longer than I would have thought possible, and no one is about wins more than Jerry Jones. What I'm saying is McBeane have a process, and they've sold the Pegulas on the process. All four of them understand what 2019 success means in terms of the process, and I don't believe that the 2019 measure of success is some number of wins. It's measurable progress on dozens and dozens of objectives. They can make that progress and still not win 8 games, and if that happens, I think the Pegulas are in for another year. Simply put, under the process, won-loss record in 2019 is not a primary objective.

You're saying what you think should be done. That's fine. I'm saying what I think will happen. And I'm saying it because I think I have developed a good understanding of the process, and it seems you haven't. McBeane are all about continuous improvement. That's the process. They have a detailed development plan for every aspect of the team, on the field and off. Players get graded on all aspects of their career in Buffalo, on the field and off. They get graded on every practice, every play. If they're making good progress, they stay until they stop making progress or someone passes them. Coaches, the same thing. If McDermott keeps making progress on the goals that have been set for him, he stays. If he stops making progress, he's in trouble. The goals do NOT include making the playoffs or winning the Super Bowl. The goals are lots of small, well defined goals that represent incremental improvement. The THEORY, instead of the goal, is that if you continue to make improvement at all the goals and behaviors set out for you, the wins will follow. So, it's very possible that the team will make progress in 2019, as measured by 2019 performance compared to 2019 goals, and still go 7-9. It's similar to the mentality baseball hitters have - the objective is to see the ball and make a good swing. If you do that well, the hits will take care of themselves. I here hitters say often that they're satisfied because they got good swings. 2019 is, in a way, McBeane's first year. It's the first year they will have a roster made up completely of players they picked because they look like good fits for the process. It's the first year they'll have an entire team dedicated to and engaged in the process. It wouldn't make sense to fire them after their first season unless, as Joe said, the wheels fall off. The process should result in wins, but it isn't ABOUT wins. Nicely done!

Their record won't determine their future so much as the progress the team makes. They have established all kinds of metrics for the team, and at the end of the season they measure the performance against the goals in all those areas. They have, without question, sold the Pegulas on that system. So long as they can show reasonable progress on their goals, reasonable movement forward, they'll get another year even if they're 7-9. There's pretty much no difference between teams that go 9-7 and teams that go 7-9. A bad call here or there, bad bounce, one or two mistakes, that's all it takes for a two-game swing. Over the long term, improvement in all the areas they measure should result in an improved record, but it's quite easy for them to get the improvement they want and still go 7-9. 6-10 is the problem for McBeane, I think. It's pretty hard to show you're getting improvement in the areas you want and still not winning much.

That's how I see it.

And they've got a locker room core of guys who buy into the process. Their system is place. Last season was the first season where players made progress doing what McDermott wants them to do. They know now what they're supposed to do, and this year they will build on that. And they will teach the newcomers. Last season was the foundation, now they are building. If McDermott knows what he's doing, there should be no more tearing down, just building and building. So they should get better in 2019. Then the process is to keep teaching and learning, and, along the way, keep upgrading the talent.

I think you are largely correct, but this is a hot seat year for McBeane. They need to show real progress this year or there are serious questions about whether their process is working. Progress is 8, 9 or 10 wins. 7 wins, maybe. Six wins, and the Pegulas are legitimately asking "what's going on here?"

I think you describe exactly why they brought him to Buffalo. They wanted a real pro on the D line, a guy with the right attitude to lead them. They knew Kyle would be gone and they knew no one else on the D line could be the leader. Plus, so far as his production goes, they probably got exactly what they expected. McD platoons, so he never intended that Star would get even 60% of the snaps. And a platooned player at that position will never post gaudy numbers. Finally, people inside the system, GMS and agents, know how to calculate plaers' contract values. The Bills wouldn't have given Star that money if others didn't value him similarly.

These are fair points to make, and pretty well balanced. In response I will say that I'm optimistic not because McDermott has done everything right but because he is so committed to continuous improvement. McDermott believes in the process for himself as well as for everyone else. HIS performance is evaluated, and HIS goals are established. His expectation of himself is that he will continuously improve, including how he manages the offense and how he makes in-game decisions. He studies all that, keeps notebooks about it, adds to his knowledge. He will be a better coach five years from now than he is today. My concern about McD is this: players can keep learning, but sometimes they run into physical limitations that mean that the player can't get any better. Coaches can run into mental limitations. Some coaches just are more intuitive, more creative than others, in a football sense. If McD isn't one of those, it doesn't matter how much he studies. I'm optimistic because I know that of McD fails, it isn't going to be because of lack of effort.

I wish him well. He was cursed with a big contract and couldn't live up to it.

I don't think you're looking at the whole picture. Flacco has $44 million guaranteed left on his contract; Taylor had one year at, if I recall correctly, $10 million. For all the Broncos know, Flacco may be done. They're taking a much bigger dollar risk than the Browns took on Taylor, so they got a discount. Or looked at it the other way, the Ravens got a fourth round pick AND dumped $44 million. They're probably thrilled.

Fine with me. Heaven knows, they need help. BUt they need DBs, LBs, WR and TE too. Only ten picks, and they'll use one or two to trade up, I'm guessing.

Maybe. I'm just saying what I understand is McBeane's philosophy based on what they've said. I think they want to grow their offensive line, like every other position, internally.

I don't disagree. The 2017 oline is not the long-term objective. But it is something like the short-term objective. Wood-Incognito-Glenn IS the kind of core they should be building toward. But I don't expect the Bills to acquire anyone with 6 or 7 or 10 years, like Glenn or Incognito. MAYBE the Bills will sign one more 2019 starting olineman in free agency, but if they do, I doubt they'll also draft one. That is, I think Spencer and one more guy are likely to be the starters added to the team. McBeane want to build through the draft, and although you can occasionally get a good rookie starter in the draft, it's tough to find one after the first round. Offensive linemen come out of college ill-prepared for the pros, and it takes time for them to develop. So McBeane's approach will be, I think, to be patient, to recognize that the starting offensive line in 2019 will NOT be the starting line in 2021, but that the most or all of the 2012 line will be on the team in 2019. At least, that's what I think they're doing. I'd be surprised if they sign more than one more free agent lineman, and if they do, I think it's someone coming off a rookie contract or similar age, like Spain. I doubt they sign a more seasoned veteran.

This. The Bill's unload polarizing stars. They don't sign them.

Thanks for your comments and the other positive feedback. If we just listen to McBeane, they tell us what they're doing. But even on the offensive line, I think we may see less change than people want. I think it's important to remember that more than any other position group, the offensive line succeeds or fails AS A GROUP. It's more about teamwork than it is about talent. (I'm not saying they don't need talent, just that it's less important than a lot of people think.) I think the offensive line needs a couple of anchor players and three decent players, all of whom have mastered the teamwork necessary. McBeane have told us it's about teamwork. And a tell-tale sign is that one of the first off-season moves they made was to change the offensive line coach. They decided they didn't have the right guy in the job. Two years ago the Bills had their two anchor players and a collection of young guys who weren't great talents. They lost Wood and Incognito, none of the returning guys stepped up, and the Bills' principal move, Bodine, wasn't good enough, at least not alone, to pull everyone up. I never thought Wood was a star, but he was an anchor. Spencer might be that, too. I think the Bills will go after one or two more quality offensive linemen with some combination of free agent signing and high draft pick. If they can find two quality starters (like, for example, Spencer and a first-round pick), and if the new coach is better than the old one, I think the o line can improve significantly. Two quality starters and some combination of Dawkins, Mills, Groy, MIller, Ducasse and Bodine can get the job done. If somehow the Bills get three new starter, the talent upgrade is great, but the teamwork suffers, because you have three players learning the system, instead of just two. Still, McBeane will take the third new starter if they can find him.

I'm responding to a lot of people and picked your post. I think you're correct about bringing in guys to fill needs, not trying to hit home runs. I think you get it, but a lot of people don't. McBeane have been completely clear about their philosophy, and it seems people aren't listening. They intend to get their good players in the draft and undrafted free agents, and they intend to use their cap money to keep good players they already have. No one should expect that the Bills will sign stars in free agency. Maybe one here or there, but that is NOT how the Bills intend to upgrade talent. McBeane have said that over and over again. The FIRST consideration in looking at their cap room is "how much money are we going to need to keep Allen and Edmunds." Really. White. Maybe Poyer and Hyde. Then they recognize that in this draft and the next one they're going to find a couple of keepers, and they'll need to reserve cap money for them. Then they work back from there. In free agency the Bills are going to sign guys they believe will be quality role players. They even will spend more than fans think their worth, like on Star and Murphy. They won't sign, I don't think, Pro Bowl players, at least not until the Bills get good and see a particular need to be a champion. When they're good, yes maybe a Pro Bowl player at an important position of need. I know I'm a broken record, but they're doing what the Pats have done and do. The Pats got good by (1) finding their QB and (2) getting a whole bunch of small-name role players in free agency. The season they won their first Super Bowl, they signed 8 or 9 guys in free agency that year, all guys who appeared to be journeymen or failures somewhere else. Vrabel was one of them. These were 8 or 9 guys who were significant contributors. Everyone wondered what they were doing. Look at the guys the Pats have signed from the Bills. Overpaid (in most people's minds) for Hogan. Overpaid (in most people's mind's) for Gillislee. Some of those players become useful contributors, some don't. Paid top dollar for Gilmore, but only when they had a championship and wanted a key piece. When the Pats were getting good, around 2000, they didn't buy any big-name players. That's the forumla McBeane are using. Spencer is one one of those guys for the Bills. The Bills signed him, I'm sure, first because he's a competitor, he works his but off, and he'll commit to the process. Second, because he has talent that appears to be an upgrade over what the Bills have. We all scratch our heads because he isn't a star, because he's a cast-off from the Jets, but McBeane knew what they were doing. Two years from now, if they Spencer has developed into a quality starter or been replaced by a younger player, they'll sign another free agent like him, looking to upgrade. People need to remember that MOST of the players on any team, including the good teams, are average or below average players. There are 32 teams in the league, and there are fewer than 100 stars. On average, each team has three. A few teams might have 5 or 6 and a few only 0 or 1. But that means that even the best teams are starting 15 or more players who are good or average or below average or prospects who are developing. If Spencer is an average NFL center or guard, the Bills will have made a good move, because they will have upgraded.

I'm interested in what happens to players after they leave the Bills, so I thought the post was interesting.