Shaw66

I prefer the journeyman backup. Your backup is never going to be as good as you starter; what you want in a backup is someone who's not going to screw things up while you're waiting for the starter to returner. The developmental QB is a bigger risk as a backup. IF Allen turns out to be a keeper, developmental QBs just take a roster or PS spot that would be better spend on an extra DB. If your developmental QB is any good, you lose him in free agency.

No one can predict the future. All we can do is comment on where things are right now. The only way things could be better would be to have Luck, who is the only mature QB in the game who looks like a star and who isn't in the tail end of his career. I didn't assume anything. The Bill's have the guy they've identified as their QB of the future. No team knows if their QB of the future will succeed. The Bills are no different. Under the circumstances, the most the Bill's could hope for is exactly what they have.

Pretty strong arguments. Thanks.

Me too. Bills could have the same three QBs for the nest 5 years. When they no longer are willing to carry 3 QBs, they'll make Anderson an assistant QB coach.

Plenty of others have had this thought, but it just struck me how well the Bills are set up at QB. They have the guy they think is their QB for the next 10 to 15 years. They have a journeyman backup who will know the system and can step in and run things if Allen is injured. And they have a senior journeyman to mentor the kid and even to mentor the journeyman backup, because Anderson has plenty of experience BOTH as a starter and as a backup. It would be nice to think that McBeane planned it this way, but we all saw how the Bills actually got to this position. If they were good enough to plan those events, they should be running the country, not the Bills.

It's funny. When you step back and look at it, there are multiple, different, equally valid ways to look at what McBeane have done since they arrived. Your view is my view when I'm feeling most optimistic. You've reminded me of some things, one of which is that in the first several weeks of the 2018 season many people, on this board, in the media and around the country were talking about the 2018 Bills possibly being the worst team in NFL history. Football Outsiders wrote weekly about it for about six weeks, comparing the Bills' DVOA to the worst teams in history. Even after the Bills beat the Vikings, worst ever continued to be the theme. No on was calling them the worst ever in December. And as you point out, this was a team where many of the stars and near stars had been sent packing (Watkins, Dareus, Gilmore, Woods, Glenn, Taylor, Preston Brown), they had a second year head coach, a rookie defensive coordinator, a completely unsettled quarterback situation and no receivers. Looked at from that perspective, there's no reason to be unhappy with McBeane after their first two years. But that's one perspective. As others have pointed out, there have been serious telltale signs of dysfunctionality, like horribly lopsided losses, undisciplined performance (the flood of penalties) and some totally unfathomable player personnel decision making (Peterman. I mean, really?). Those are signs that McD's team is out of control and McD doesn't know what he's doing. I can't sit here and feel all warm and fuzzy about the Bills when I think about them at their worst over the past two years. These conflicting thoughts lead me to the conclusion I stated before: in some ways, 2019 is the the first year we really get to see what McBeane have been doing. Over their first two seasons, there has been some bad coaching and some good coaching, there have been some bad personnel decisions and some good ones,, there have been some bad games and some good ones. In 2019, there are no explanations, no excuses. They will have players they chose, they will not have been hampered by salary cap constraints, McD will have his coaching and teaching process firmly implanted in his core players, including his QB and MLB. McD will have had a couple years to develop and refine his head coaching skills and to correct initial mistakes in the head coaching ranks. The 2019 team will be the first team under McBeane's leadership that will show what kind of football their process produces. It won't be the full-blown version of McBeane football, because a lot of the players on the field will be in their first year of the McBeane process, but it will be the first version. 2020 will be the second. If McBeane know what they're doing, 2019 will be measurably better than 2018, both in terms of individual play and wins (they should win 8-9, maybe more). If they don't know what they're doing, we'll see more sloppy play, more lopsided losses, more inconsistent performances. If that happens AND if they win 6 or fewer, it's possible they won't get the chance to see how their process works in 2020.

That's a much better way to say it. It is the entire body of work, and in the case of this HC, it's the entire body of work measured against very precisely defined goals and objectives. When I was responding to Virgil, I almost mentioned the blowout losses, too. They have to stop. Now, even Belichick gets blown out once in a while, actually almost every season. But three or four in a season says the team is seriously deficient in some ways. Week to week high quality competitive product is right. I think it's possible to do that and go 7-9, even 6-10 under unusual circumstances. I like what you said.

Easy. First, Allen finishes the season in the top 15 in passer rating. Fitzpatrick and Rodgers did that last season and had 6 wins, so it's certainly possible. Second, defense ranks in the top 10. Third, have a few key injuries at the wrong time. Fourth, lose a game on a bad call. Fifth, play a really tough schedule - like the Browns get good, and the Jets do, along with the Pats. Like I've said, I think if they only win 6, there are some serious questions to be asked, and maybe the conclusion is the process isn't working or isn't being led by the right people. But if they're a legitimate 7-9 team, which means they're also a legitimate 9-7 team (because there's essentially no difference, and a ref blows a call to make the Bills 6-10, I don't think McBeane are at risk. Now, if I'm the Pegulas and ALL they are in 2019 is a legitimate 7-9, I may stick with them and with the process, but that doesn't mean I'm happy. If they finish 7-9, I think McBeane are on notice for 2020 - win or be gone. But I certainly can see scenarios where they are 6-10 this year and McBeane are back.

Do you mean you agree that's what happened or you agree that was the right thing to do? Whether it was right or not, I'm saying the Pegulas pretty much committed to McDermott for three years and I'm guessing that they jpretty much extended that commitment when the Bills made the playoffs. Not sure it was the right thing to do, but I think that's what happened. Nothing in writing, of course. I think that happened because making the playoffs took a tremendous amount of pressure off the Pegulas in Buffalo. Life would be hell right now if the Bengals hadn't pulled off that miracle. Anybody who works for me and does me that big of a favor has built up a lot of good will.

If I were Pegula, I wouldn't agree with you. There is NO coach since Bill Walsh whom I would expect to be able to compete with Belichick, so to set Belichick is the hurdle is to doom yourself to failure. You'll probably NEVER hire that coach. That's like saying until you get a QB as good as Brady, you keep cutting QBs. The reality is that in coaches, just like in QBs, you're trying to get a top 10 guy. A top-10 coach, a top-10 quarterback. Yes, the unfortunate reality is that in you're in the AFC east, you have to deal with Belichick twice a year. That shouldn't change how you evaluate your coach.

Yeah, I pretty much agree with this. The Bills win 5 games this season, it's pretty clear that something is wrong with the process or the people running it. I've said all along that I think McDermott is at risk with 6 wins and at serious risk with 5 (absent some unusual circumstances, like injuries to a lot of key players). I think, as you say, in the wild card race into at least December isn't essential, but not an unreasonable expectation. And I think, as you say, if they don't get to double digit wins in 2020, one or both of McBeane are in trouble. Not 2019, but 2020. By then, Allen and Edmunds are in their third seasons, the roster is completely of McBeane's making, McDermott should be well past rookie mistakes and should have assembled a quality coaching staff. If they aren't winning in 2020, something's wrong and it's almost certainly on McBeane.

In your world. When you buy a team, that's the way you can run it. It was completely clear to me, if not you, that McDermott had AT LEAST three years the day he was hired. And once he got to the playoffs, it was quite likely that three became four.

I think this is an important point, and it's why I said in a way this is McDermott's first season. This will be the first roster that is completely McBeane's. The few holdovers from REx's term are there because McBeane want them. Everyone else is now a guy they wanted. On top of that, everyone on the roster today (except the couple of free agent signings) knows the process and what's expected of them, and every guy who joins the team from here on out will learn from the veterans how this team operates. That's a different environment from McDermott's first year, and even to an extent last season. McBeane will tell you they don't have all the talent they want, but they now have the kind of players they want. I think the important point in all this is not just that this is what McBeane are doing, but that they talk to the Pegulas about it and the Pegulas understand this is what is happening. So the Pegulas' expectations are NOT that this will be a playoff team this season, although that might happen. Their expectation is that the team will be better than last season in ways that are consistent with the way McBeane are trying to build it.

A little bit of both. I'm going primarily on what I hear McBeane say, and I think a lot of fans aren't paying attention. They have a process, as we all know, and the more I watch what they're doing and what they're saying, it's clear that it's a long-term process of continuous improvement. It's based on setting performance objectives for each individual, not about setting outcomes for the team. For example, Beane has said over and over that they will be conservative in free agency. If your job depended on making the playoffs THIS YEAR and you had a ton of cap space, wouldn't you be buying every star player you could, blowing all your cap money this year? Why not? If you don't win this year, you're out, so why would you be saving any cap room for your successor? But he's been very clear about this. He has said over and over he's building for the long-term. He's gotta feel reasonably secure about his job to be taking that approach. So I have reached this conclusion from what I've seen and read. However, I also have a little inside information that suggests that (1) yes, as far as the Pegulas are concerned, McBeane must show real progress this year - there are no excuses, but (2) progress isn't necessarily measured in wins. I think that means things like the young players (Allen, Edmunds, White, Milano} have to take the next step, overall talent continues to improve, competitiveness in big games continues to improve - things like that.

Like I said, I understand that's what you want and what you would do as owner. And like I said, what I'm talking about is what I think the McBeane and the Pegulas are doing. You don't have to like it. You can disagree with it. But it's pretty ignorant of you to criticize fans for having the wrong attitude about this. I'm not talking about what I'd do; I'm talking about I think the Pegulas will do. The Pegulas made a huge mistake when they hired Rex. They figured that out. They took a different approach with this hire. Whether you like it or not, McDermott and then Beane sold the Pegulas the process, and the Pegulas bought it. Whether you like it or not, all indications are that all four of them still believe the process is the way to go. Whether you like it or not, Terry Pegula understands that building success takes time. It took him decades to earn $5 billion. So whether you like it or not, the Pegulas are going to measure success in terms of the process, not in terms of wins and losses. If McBeane say the process is on track, and if the Pegulas agree, no one's losing their job with 7 wins. Of course, if the Pegulas don't agree, then McBeane will be gone. My point only is that some other owners may fire their head coach based on one season's record; I don't think that's what the Pegulas are thinking. I spend it because I like going to the games. Pretty basic.

The NFL is a collection of 32 business owners, and it's only about wins in the way each owner decides it's about wins. Jerry Jones has stuck with Howdy Doody down there longer than I would have thought possible, and no one is about wins more than Jerry Jones. What I'm saying is McBeane have a process, and they've sold the Pegulas on the process. All four of them understand what 2019 success means in terms of the process, and I don't believe that the 2019 measure of success is some number of wins. It's measurable progress on dozens and dozens of objectives. They can make that progress and still not win 8 games, and if that happens, I think the Pegulas are in for another year. Simply put, under the process, won-loss record in 2019 is not a primary objective.

You're saying what you think should be done. That's fine. I'm saying what I think will happen. And I'm saying it because I think I have developed a good understanding of the process, and it seems you haven't. McBeane are all about continuous improvement. That's the process. They have a detailed development plan for every aspect of the team, on the field and off. Players get graded on all aspects of their career in Buffalo, on the field and off. They get graded on every practice, every play. If they're making good progress, they stay until they stop making progress or someone passes them. Coaches, the same thing. If McDermott keeps making progress on the goals that have been set for him, he stays. If he stops making progress, he's in trouble. The goals do NOT include making the playoffs or winning the Super Bowl. The goals are lots of small, well defined goals that represent incremental improvement. The THEORY, instead of the goal, is that if you continue to make improvement at all the goals and behaviors set out for you, the wins will follow. So, it's very possible that the team will make progress in 2019, as measured by 2019 performance compared to 2019 goals, and still go 7-9. It's similar to the mentality baseball hitters have - the objective is to see the ball and make a good swing. If you do that well, the hits will take care of themselves. I here hitters say often that they're satisfied because they got good swings. 2019 is, in a way, McBeane's first year. It's the first year they will have a roster made up completely of players they picked because they look like good fits for the process. It's the first year they'll have an entire team dedicated to and engaged in the process. It wouldn't make sense to fire them after their first season unless, as Joe said, the wheels fall off. The process should result in wins, but it isn't ABOUT wins. Nicely done!

Their record won't determine their future so much as the progress the team makes. They have established all kinds of metrics for the team, and at the end of the season they measure the performance against the goals in all those areas. They have, without question, sold the Pegulas on that system. So long as they can show reasonable progress on their goals, reasonable movement forward, they'll get another year even if they're 7-9. There's pretty much no difference between teams that go 9-7 and teams that go 7-9. A bad call here or there, bad bounce, one or two mistakes, that's all it takes for a two-game swing. Over the long term, improvement in all the areas they measure should result in an improved record, but it's quite easy for them to get the improvement they want and still go 7-9. 6-10 is the problem for McBeane, I think. It's pretty hard to show you're getting improvement in the areas you want and still not winning much.

That's how I see it.

And they've got a locker room core of guys who buy into the process. Their system is place. Last season was the first season where players made progress doing what McDermott wants them to do. They know now what they're supposed to do, and this year they will build on that. And they will teach the newcomers. Last season was the foundation, now they are building. If McDermott knows what he's doing, there should be no more tearing down, just building and building. So they should get better in 2019. Then the process is to keep teaching and learning, and, along the way, keep upgrading the talent.

I think you are largely correct, but this is a hot seat year for McBeane. They need to show real progress this year or there are serious questions about whether their process is working. Progress is 8, 9 or 10 wins. 7 wins, maybe. Six wins, and the Pegulas are legitimately asking "what's going on here?"

I think you describe exactly why they brought him to Buffalo. They wanted a real pro on the D line, a guy with the right attitude to lead them. They knew Kyle would be gone and they knew no one else on the D line could be the leader. Plus, so far as his production goes, they probably got exactly what they expected. McD platoons, so he never intended that Star would get even 60% of the snaps. And a platooned player at that position will never post gaudy numbers. Finally, people inside the system, GMS and agents, know how to calculate plaers' contract values. The Bills wouldn't have given Star that money if others didn't value him similarly.

These are fair points to make, and pretty well balanced. In response I will say that I'm optimistic not because McDermott has done everything right but because he is so committed to continuous improvement. McDermott believes in the process for himself as well as for everyone else. HIS performance is evaluated, and HIS goals are established. His expectation of himself is that he will continuously improve, including how he manages the offense and how he makes in-game decisions. He studies all that, keeps notebooks about it, adds to his knowledge. He will be a better coach five years from now than he is today. My concern about McD is this: players can keep learning, but sometimes they run into physical limitations that mean that the player can't get any better. Coaches can run into mental limitations. Some coaches just are more intuitive, more creative than others, in a football sense. If McD isn't one of those, it doesn't matter how much he studies. I'm optimistic because I know that of McD fails, it isn't going to be because of lack of effort.

I wish him well. He was cursed with a big contract and couldn't live up to it.

I don't think you're looking at the whole picture. Flacco has $44 million guaranteed left on his contract; Taylor had one year at, if I recall correctly, $10 million. For all the Broncos know, Flacco may be done. They're taking a much bigger dollar risk than the Browns took on Taylor, so they got a discount. Or looked at it the other way, the Ravens got a fourth round pick AND dumped $44 million. They're probably thrilled.