Shaw66

I'm really sick of watching the Patriots, but I admire them. I'm root against them pretty much all the time. Still, I'm mostly indifferent about them.

Thanks. That article is great. This guy sounds like he's ready for McDermott's leadership. I'm interested in the notion that he may be a tight end. He's a pretty good sized guy, he's tough and he seems to have good hands. Clay is too much the old style TE, and Croom simply may not have the size and aggressiveness to some of the TE dirty work. Williams could be a Kelce, Ebron type guy. He may not have the size he needs, but maybe it works. Certainly will be rooting for him.

The played a pregame interview with Luck. He said it's like they've been in the playoffs for weeks. Nothing has changed. They just do their work each day and stick with the process. McDermott isn't the only one with a process.

Has a rough history. If he passed the McBeane screeens, it means he has mostly straightened himself out. Could be a great talent upgrade.

Thanks, Milt. I appreciate the kind words.

Thanks for the link. It's a place I haven't used, but it seems to do a lot of good things. Home page has Josh Allen up as having thrown the longest pass - air yards - in 2018.

When you watched Galloway that day, you saw one of the 10 or 20 best receiving days by any receiver in the league in 2018. He was spectacular. There are probably 15 receivers in the league who can be dominant like that. Let's be generous and call it 30 who can dominate like that. Most of them are #1s or are on their way to becoming #1s quickly. Of course I'd like to have a guy like Galloway as my #2. 32 GMs would too. He's not the kind of guy you can expect to have in that position, at least until there's a general upgrade in other talent on the team. Let's face it, if a guy Galloway is in the Bills' camp next summer, he isn't taking Zay's #2 job. He's the #1 guy, and Zay probably keeps his job over Foster as the #2. The way Zay loses his job is the Bills get lucky in the draft and come up with a really talented receiver AND Foster continues his growth. It's possible, of course, particularly because Beane so adamantly goes after the best player available. So the Bills could get a really good rookie receiver. And it's also possible that the Bills continue to unlock Foster's talent and he makes another leap forward in 2019. He has the physical ability. So you could get your Galloway, but I think it's much more likely you're going to have Zay. I predict you'll be happy with him.

1. I thought he caught the ball fine this season. Had a few drops, but increasingly he seems to be catching all the balls he should. 2. I don't think #2s catch a lot of 50-50 balls. What #2s do is run good routes and catch the ball when their route attacks a weakness in the defense. That is, #2s are told to run their routes and be ready; the QB will read the defense and throw it to you. 3. I actually liked his route running this season. 4. Separation is a myth, at least for #2s. If you can get separation in a pure one on one situation, you're a #1. #2s and slot receivers get separation based on scheme, not on physical ability. Plus, he's played about one and half seasons. Like everyone that young, he's still learning. I'm sure replacing Zay is not a high priority for McBeane. They want a #1, for sure. They a tight end. They want o linemen. They want a running back. They want a lot of guys on defense. Zay is behind all of them on the to-do list.

Thanks. Those are both interesting points. And of course I may be wrong. Still, I'd guess that next season you'll see a guy who is targeted like a #2 and has stats like a #2. What I see is decent speed, good but not great hands, hard work and commitment.

Quickly eyeballing it, Colts have two in the top 10 and 3 in top 25. That and getting Luck back explains the turnaround. Browns have three in the top 10, including a QB. I didn't see anyone other than the Bills and Bears with two in the top 20. So on that list, the Bills are big winners compared to most the league. And if they were big winners, it means they have their two most important positions filled for next ten years. That's HUGE. Think about that - McBeane don't have to worry about a QB or an MLB for ten years. Belichick had it at QB, but no place on his defense. Bills need good coaching and good role players. Imagine a future where the Browns and Bills fight for AFC supremacy year after year. Like the Pats and the Colts, or the Pats and the Steelers. It's not so far-fetched.

Absolutely. We certainly can see what happened to productivity in his area, but we have no idea how he contributed to that productivity. The head coach and coordinator do.

Another comparison for Zay. The thread about the best rookies in the league says Calvin RIdley is already one of the best #2s in the league. Let's take that as true, even though on most teams Ridley may be a #1. Ridley caught 8 more passes than Zay for 170 more yards. That's the difference between one of the best #2s and Zay. And Ridley was on a team that threw 118 more passes, and he was on the field with a top 5 #1 and a top 5 slot receiver. Do you think Zay would have caught eight more passes playing for Atlanta with Ryan, Jones and Sanu? Zay was fine, and he'll be fine next season. Could someone do better? Sure. But he was far from being a liability in 2018. Next season he'll be on the field with better wideouts (either because McKenzie and Foster will improve, almost without question, or because the Bills will acquire better talent), with better pass protection (couldn't have been a lot worse) and a better QB. Zay won't be a problem.

Not sure what it all means. What are these rankings, like #62. I assume that means he ranks 62 on a list of something. All receivers? All wideouts?

True. It's all about big names, and the big names were built in college. FOr example, I haven't seen a lot of Darnold and Jackson, but I'd take Allen over both in a heartbeat. I know Jackson has been phenomenal running, but I have trouble seeing a long term future for him. I've never seen a lot of discussion around here about why the Bills took Edmunds instead of Vander Esch. I suppose the answer is that Edmunds had the greater upside, but Vander Esch has looked spectacular when I've seen him.

We're all pretty excited. In his end of season presser, Allen said he wants to keep playing. My wife is getting sick of hearing about the Bills since Sunday.

Yeah, that was a great play. He made a decent play on the ball, but as you say, it was his determination that stood out. And it did cause the fight - the Jags tried to pull him off their guy, and the Bills came in to protect him. And, by the way, his play kept the receiver out of the end zone. Huge turning point in the game.

I agree. Surprised where Alpha is coming from. I'd like 800 yards and 10 yards per catch from my #2. I don't care if the catches are boring or highlight real catches. Zay can easily be in that territory on a team that throws the ball 100 more times.

Did you see his touchdown catch against the Dolphins fir his first Td? Great catch. What numbers do you expect from your #2 for the season? Don't tell me you want 1000 yards.

This just makes very little sense. First, I was comparing Zay's second season in the NFL to Woods' second season. In that season the Bills threw 80 more passes than in 2018. Woods, Freddy (one of those UDFAs you seem to disdain) and Sammy all caught 65 or 66 passes. Zay's production compares very nicely with what Woods did in his second year. And more importantly, all of this stuff you say is just stuff. The NFL is about production, and what I gave you were the stats that say he produced like an average #2, and you say it doesn't matter. It DOES matter. Production is just about all that matters for a receiver. Your whole argument about the Rams is wrong, too. It's what too many fans do too often - they compare their guy to the comparable guy on the BEST team in the league. I wasn't comparing Zay to Woods this year - he's a five or six year pro playing on a great team. What I said is that Zay was an AVERAGE #2 in production, and he was. And that's not bad for a second year pro, on a team with a rookie QB and that couldn't pass protect and didn't pass much.

He was 59th in the league in receptions this year. Take out the running backs and tight ends and he was in the low 40s. That means he was average for a #2 wideout. He was 61st in yards this season. Take out the running backs and tight ends and he was around 50. That means he was average for a 32 wideout. That's on a team that was 28th in the league in attempts. His season was quite similar to Robert Woods' second season. He catches about the same number of passes for about the same number of yards with about the same ratio of catches to targets. Maybe all the things you say about him are true. Somehow in his second season he's an average NFL #2 wideout.

It feels strange arguing the other side, because I think Allen is going to be a star. A true star. If Daboll does his job, Allen will be next season's Mahomes. By 2020 we'll be celebrating that we traded Mahomes for White and Allen. But ... 10+ yard per attempt isn't something to brag about. McDermott admitted a week or two ago that they've been trying to get him to take the checkdown more oftern. By the time draft night came, I was Mayfield-Darnold-Rosen-Allen. When the Bills traded up in the first I said to myself "Good, take Rosen. NO, WAIT. TAKE ALLEN. TAKE ALLEN!!!" I changed my mind because I didn't a wimpy little guy - I wanted the body and the arm. By the end of preseason I wanted him starting and nearly puked when I heard it was Nate. FortuNATEly, that didn't last long. I'm genuinely excited every game, just to see him play. I just look at the stats and think he's a long way from where he needs to be. But I also think he's on a rocketship that's going to get him there faster than the pundits might think. I think he's going to be studying film all off-season, I think he'll get significantly better protection and a better running game next season, and I think he's going to have a whole summer to get used to the receivers he's going to be playing with. (I think they will be Zay and Foster and two or three guys who aren't yet on the roster.) I also think Edmunds will be consistently better than we saw most of this season. He won't be great, not yet, but he'll be a problem for opponents. I think the defense will improve around him. I think this team surprises a lot of people and goes 10-6 OR BETTER. I'm just saying that Allen wasn't a quality starter this past season.

Actually, I'm not sure I care if they ever get a "true" #1. I agree with what you said, and not just because Daboll is the OC. I think if you look around league, real success in the league is rarely determined by having a "true" #1 wide receiver. They're nice to have, but not essential. Seattle doesn't have a "true" #1. Arizona did and never won. Atlanta does and never won. Cincinatti. Detroit. Houston. Moss only won with Belichick (or did the Giants beat them that year?).. I don't think that lesson is lost on McBeane. They're building a team, not a collection of talented players. Add to that the fact that "true" #1 wide receivers sometimes (and more than most other positions) are prima donnas. Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown are the latest examples. That's also a no no in McBeane land. McBeane are going to keep getting the best players that fit what they're doing. If a "true" #1 comes along with the character, determination and competitiveness that they're looking for, they'll grab him. A HInes Ward (not a #1), an Andre Reed (not really a true #1), a Larry Fitzgerald. But until that guy comes along, Allen will be throwing to guys many people here won't like. Look at Minnesota. Look at the Rams. Look at the Chiefs. One of the dumbest comments we on TV these days is "So-and-so has completed passes to NINE different receivers today." They say it like it's a big deal and it shows how So-and-so sees the field, etc. It's baloney. Offenses are DESIGNED to spread the ball around. They take advantage of mismatches all over the field, and they don't throw a lot to the #1 because the #1 gets doubled a lot. "True" #1 wideouts are overrated in terms of building a winner. Love to have one, no doubt, but they just aren't that important. Stud left tackle is more important. A stud GUARD may be more important. A stud center definitely is. And three or four guys on the defense are more important.

I won't dismiss the stats. For years I've been saying that although people may not think it's perfect, the passer rating is a good measure of how well a QB is doing. Allen's passer rating is horrible. He isn't the only QB in the league with a weak receiving corps, but he and Rosen are the only starters in the league with a passer rating below 70. That number is horrible. Take one stat in isolation: Interceptions. Allen's interception perception is second highest in the league, behind only our man Ryan Fitz. That stat has very little to do with anything other than bad decision making. It doesn't matter whether you're thowing to Kelvin Benjamin or Julio Jones if the safetytis undercutting the route. Allen had only two games with a passer rating over 90. He had 6 below 70. EJ Manuel's CAREER passer rating is 77. Allen is spectacular. At the same time, he has a long way to go.

One thing that ought to temper our enthusiasm is that Allen's stats are horrible. I was just looking at Football Outsiders, and his DVOA rank is 33. He LOOKED like a stud against the Dolphins, but it was the Dolphins and a meaningless game, a game in which the Bills were amped up because of Kyle. If he can't look good in that game, when can he? We need more of those 3 TD passing, 2 TD rushing games!

This is great! Thanks. I'm not a Newton fan. I don't think he is a quality decision maker, and for whatever reason his throwing is inaccurate. I've thought for a couple of months that Allen is going to blow right by Newton. In five years they won't be discussed in the same sentence. My, aren't we getting ahead of ourselves?!