Shaw66

Right, and Dalton threw more than AJ. And FOSTER's role can be to get CBs and Ss away from the line of scrimmage. I'm not dissing Brown, but everything points to him being, at most, a piece of a larger puzzle. He isn't likely to be the answer at #1.

Yup. I;m high on Duke, because he seems to be high on football.

Yes, altho apparently Duke stood out because he isn't a rookie and everyone else is. That makes his standing out a little less impressive, but it still answers one question about him. Whatever he is, he isn't raw and isn't a rookie. It's what I thought - he's played two seasons of professional football in Canada, and that's serious football. The talent level is down a notch, but what they expect players to do isn't. He thrived in a competitive football environment, and my guess is that he'll thrive in the NFL too.

Tiger - thanks for the post and the link. there's lots of good stuff in that article. the picture of Singletary, Oliver and Ford together is interesting. Ford is a giant!

Looks like you tried to respond to your own post and it turned into an edit. Here's what you said: I think you are exactly right about this. Exactly. I think your first paragraph describes what the Bills are trying to do with the receivers. And, to repeat what I've said dozens of times in the past six months, they are mimicking the Patriots. The Bills are all about scheme. That's certainly how the defense plays. And that's what they seem to be doing on the offense. They are going to play receiver by committee, and receivers are going to succeed, if they do, because the scheme gets them open and the scheme allows Allen to know when and where they will get open. The beauty of playing a scheme like that is that you can play it without star receivers, if the receivers are fundamentally sound and do their jobs (and if the QB masters the concepts and makes the throws). Any of these guys we're talking about - Brown, Foster, Jones, and I think Williams for sure and Sills, can be nicely productive in a good scheme. Frankly, that's exactly what we saw from Foster last season, and from Zay perhaps to a lesser extent. Against certain defensive sets, with certain play calls, Foster had a real advantage, Allen knew it and found him. I think that describes Zay's better games, as well. The additional beauty of playing a scheme like that you can always have a good receiving corps, because you don't need star receivers to make it work. Then you can hunt in free agency and the draft for the guy with better talent who is not a prima donna, plug him into the system, and BINGO!, you have something special. The Patriots keep trying to do that. They had some success plugging Moss into the system, no success with Chad Johnson or Gordon. But they tried. They had big success with Gronk - a special talent who willingly adapted to the system. And Edelman, who in some ways is a limited receiver with a few exceptional skills that make him really tough in the system. I keep coming back to what McBeane say - this is a process that takes years, and they aren't done. They're building and building and they expect the team to continue to get better. I think if you get them to talk completely frankly about it, they'd tell you that this team is headed in the right direction but hasn't learned enough yet and doesn't have enough talent yet.

Actually, I view these facts about the two of them the opposite way. I think the fact that they had poor production when the less able QBs were on the field as a comment on the RECEIVERS. I think it speaks to their limitations. AJ Green didn't stop catching pass when McCarron replaced Dalton in 2015. His production went down, but that was because McCarron was throwing less than Dalton. Good players are good players, and you can see it in them even when the players around them aren't so hot. Sometimes you have to look a little harder, like at Shady when no one is blocking for him, but they're still good and you still see what makes them good. So I'd say that both Zay and Brown are the guys their ENTIRE output has shown them to be, which is receivers that have, so far, failed to rise to the expectations that coaches and fans had for them. As be the two, Zay gets a bit more of a pass, because he's only been at it for two seasons. If by now Brown has emerged as a serious threat, a legitimate number one, it's relatively unlikely that it will happen in the future.

This is one example of how fan perception of players is skewed by rookie performance. Brown is another. He burst on the scene, produced multiple spectacular highlights. Now some people Zay is horrible and Brown is a couple of seasons from the Hall of Fame. (And I'd say Ziggy is another' Every year some edge rusher splashes into the NFL and looks like a world beater, but very few of them remain dominant beyond a few years.) I didn't fall into the Zay trap. I was willing to see what he did in his second year before writing him off, and in his second year he showed plenty of signs of being a solid NFL receiver. I did fall into the Brown trap; I was excited when the Bills signed him and thought they had made the move that will change the receiving corps. Then I started thinking about it, looking at his stats, reading what people were saying here, and I realized I had drunk the Brown Kool-Aid. The Bills' receiver room is full of good stories, good potential but only one proven player - Beasley. Brown could have big impact if the process turns him into something he has. Jones could be an important piece of the puzzle if the process continues to help him improve. Ditto Foster. Williams has the tools to have significant impact, like a Boldin, if the process etc. Sills the same. It's a bunch of question marks, and I've stopped thinking ANY of them is going to take a major step forward. My sense is the Bills need Beasley to be what everyone thinks he is AND the Bills need someone, ideally some two, to take serious steps forward.

What do you think this is, college admissions? He with the most bucks wins? Starters aren't determined by how much they're getting paid. But how much a free agent gets paid is some indication of how highly the league values him. Brown has been a free agent for two years running and no one is paying him even high number 2 money. That says something to me about how valuable the guy must be.

I never knew that. So is 10 1 back and 4 wide? Do they call it 10?

I don't know the mix of their packages last year - I'm not geek enough to study that stuff, but in any case I expect the offense to be different this year. Different in the sense that the mix of plays will be different. They intend, I'm sure, for Allen to pass more and run less than last season. Last season they seemed to be trying desperately to keep him at or below 20 attempts, but I expect this season they want to take the wraps off and let him throw 25-30 times a game. SO that will change the mix of formations and play calls. I think they also expect to have a more effective running game (how could they not?). I'd expect they would like to run more play action. That will all depend on how the line develops. Bottom line, I don't know what to expect. As we've all said for four months, a lot of it depends on what Allen can do. If he steps up his game, and I think he will, every aspect of the offense will look better.

that's what I understand, too. So to the extent that Brown are Foster are one trick ponies, their chances of starting are diminished. They will have to run the entire route tree, effectively, because the system, as I understand it, demands it. Nevertheless, we know that (with one possible exception), the Bills will go three wide a lot of the time, and there will be three guys who are the guys who play most of the snaps when they are three wide. That's the 1,2,3 I'm talking about. Ideally at least one of the three has deep speed, and the chances are that that's a two-man race between Brown and Foster. Beasley is a given as one of the three, so that means the lose of the two-man race is fighting for the third spot with Zay and anyone else who can get himself into the race. Williams, Sills, McKenzie are all possibilities. If Brown loses to Foster, he will have a fight on his hands, because he will have to prove himself as a route runner and a guy who can catch contested balls. If Foster loses to Brown, same deal for Foster. Either way, Zay's way into the starting three is to win the fight for that last spot. Whose the best route runner among Zay, Brown, Foster and Williams? Zay is the front runner, Williams is unknown. Who has the best hands? Well, he hasn't played in the NFL, but there's good reason to believe it's Williams. Who's the best blocker? I'd bet on Zay or Williams, but I really don't know. So far as I see it, bottom line is this: Beasley gets one of the three spots. Foster or Brown gets the second. Third is truly up for grabs. Brown has more experience, but I don't see a whole lot of evidence that suggests he's a lock to beat out Foster for the job. If Brown doesn't win that competition, he's in dog fight with Zay and perhaps a couple more guys. Brown could easily end up being the fourth receiver, as could Zay. And as I've said before, if you're the fourth receiver, that's pretty much like being the fifth receiver - you're just getting snaps as they come. And this whole analysis assumes Roberts isn't a factor. He could be. The one exception would be if the Bills figure out over the summer that they're going to go with two tight ends as a regular part of their offense. Then you're looking at two wideout. In that case Beasley likely is one and Foster and Brown are fighting to be the other. Beasley could also lose out if both Foster and Brown step up. The real point is that I don't see anyone other than Beasley whose track record makes him a heavy favorite to start. Brown is the favorite on day 1 of camp, but he could lose that title in two weeks.

Wait. Hap already has shown that $8 million is what a second wideout gets. So you don't think it means something that no team was willing to pay him more than 5, including the Cardinals? And the Bills were the only team willing to pay him 8? The Patriots couldn't use him? Brown hasn't fulfilled his promise. McDermott knows that. Brown will have to prove himself like everyone else, and he was unable to prove himself at either of his last two teams. Oh, and you think wideouts blocking isn't important to McDermott? He only talks about it just about every time he talks about receivers.

If I'm handicapping all the receivers, Beasley is my most likely to start, Brown is second and Foster and Zay are a push for the third spot. I'd say Brown has a 50-60% chance of starting.

Two teams in two years have decided he wasn't worth re-signing. Given that, why would I think Brown is an automatic starter. And it's not like Arizona and Baltimore were loaded with receivers.

Thanks. It's a pleasure reading stuff that makes sense. The truth is that when common sense and data don't align, either could be incorrect. Both data and common sense can mislead us in our thinking. So when the two don't agree, it becomes necessary to examine both the underpinnings of what we think is common sense and the actual relevance of the data to what we're seeking to conclude. The seat belt example demonstrates half of the problem; the completion percentage as a measure of passing accuracy is the other half. Just because we have data that Allen's completion percentage is low, it does not necessarily follow that he is an inaccurate thrower. It's possible his throwing is the cause of the low completion percentage, but it's also possible that other factors cause or contribute to the low percentage. In this case, as you've demonstrated, all the data pretty much supports your conclusion: his previous several years (although it's possible quarterbacking had something to do with it). what he's getting paid, the demand in the market for him last year and this year. The data says he's a guy would MIGHT be able to do great things for you, but it's far from certain he WILL do it. I'm expecting him to be the #1 receiver, but he will need to earn that role. If he doesn't produce and Zay and Foster progress, it's easy to see them as 1 and 2 with Beasley in the slot, leaving Brown with #4 spot. There's going to be real competition, and none of Foster, Jones, Williams, Sills and McKenzie are going to concede anything to Brown.

Wow. I'm not sure where some of you guys are coming from. For whatever reason, I don't care what the reason, Brown never has fulfiled what seemed to bis future in his rookie season. He just hasn't. So you have a guy who, for whatever reason, hasn't been the #1 guy you want, coming into a system that preaches that you have to earn everything you get. I am not going to pencil that guy in as a day 1 starter. Day 1 training camp, sure. Day 1 of the regular season, no. McD is going to play the guy who performs in camp. Brown will have to win the job, and his contract will have nothing to do with it. I expect he will win the job, and I expect the Bills receiving corps will be better than last season. If he doesn't and the Bills receivers aren't, then Beane will have continued a string of failed receiver decisions. What SHOULD happen is Beasley and Brown are the two most important receivers, which means Zay goes from the best in 2018 to 3rd or 4th or 5th. And, of course, ALL of this depends on Allen. If he isn't making the reads and the throws, ALL of the receivers will look like 2018 revisited.

That's the intention for sure. But he has to earn the starting job, and his career to date doesn't make him a sure thing.

Alpha I think Thirm is generally right. As a matter pure statistics, MOST players will cluster their good performances in a few games. That's how data usually falls. That's why we're so i.pressed, for example, when a guy strings 5 or 6 100 yard games together. And yes it may matter what time in the game it is, and what the score is, but as others have said, a good route and a good route is a good route and a good catch whenever it happens. As I have said before, I dont think the point is that Zay is bad. It is that you and I and others see circumstances that would cause Zay to get traded or even cut because other players offer more short- or long-teem upside. Hap - I've thought all along we have seen it more or less the same way. As I said way back somewhere, you seem to think Zay has more upside than I do, and that's just an honest difference of opinion. I agree that Robert's, Beasley and Brown are locks to make the squad. I agree that Brown is not a lock to start. I think if there is a fourth lock to make the teM, its Foster, not Zay. More so than you, I think Foster is likely to continue to improve to the point where he will be a serious threat to win one of the wideout spots. I think you agree with me that if Williams and Sills play well enough in camp and preseason, however you define well enough, Zay is in trouble. Finally, I think its great to be having a discussion about whether a guy is good enough to make the team. Last year the discussion was about whether the Bills had five or six guys good enough to be in the league. It's true, of course, that several guys could be busts and Zay starts by default, but that doesn't seem to be the way things are trending.

Even with only 2 wide I won't be surprised to see Beasley on the field and Zay sitting. I continue to think that if Zay can't make the top 3, he may be trouble. If he is your fourth or fifth guy, I'm not sure he offers the upside that others might.

6it gets hard to have a meaningful conversation when you say Zay could develop into a #1. If Zay could, any one could. What has Zay ever done that makes him look ANYTHING like OBJ, Julio, Green, Hopkins, Megatron, Fitzgerald, even that headhunter who left Miami for Cleveland? Nothing, that's what. Sure anything is possible, but Zay is about as likely to be a number 1 receiver in the NFL as I am.

I'm one who agrees with the OP that Zay could be gone, but I think it's just a reasonable possibility. If it happens it won't mean Zay is bad, just that some others are better. What has he done? As someone else pointed out, he has played all three wideout positions and had decent success. Not great but decent. So he knows and can perform in the system the Bills run. Brown and Beasley, being vets, should be able to get up that learning curve. Williams and the rookies start pretty far behind Zay. Foster is behind him too. So although I think Zay's upside is more limited than some of those others, he is more likely to perform adequately while the team figures out over the entire season whether any of the others can deliver on game day. I share Hap's view in that regard. If Zay isn't on the roster to start the season it will be because others have better upside, Foster or someone else emerged as the number 3, AND as the number 4 Zay's experience and versatility just isn't that important. If Zay is not on the roster for those reasons, that's a good thing for the Bills, because that will mean two guys, like Williams and Sills, both have demonstrated better upside than Zay, plus Foster progressing. From my point of view, Zay on the team isn't a bad outcome, Zay not on the team is better.

Nice, but you left out Duke Williams. And Foster's emergence as a Hall of Famer. Oh, and Allen's accuracy. Seriously, no one should expect that people read all the posts before posting their own thoughts. A thread is a conversation; when you're talking with a group of people and someone joins late, that person often will repeat things people said earlier, before he arrived. No one tells him to stop because we already talked about that. It is, as you say, just people jumping in and out of a conversation.

Really good point. McBeane love that flexibility. And it isn't theoretical - he has actually played all over. With Duke and Sills, it's just guys who MIGHT be able do what Zay has done.

As I just wrote to Hapless, yes, I think that is the issue. No, I'm not saying that he won't improve. My view is that although he may improve, he's not going to improve so much that he's a significant contributor to the team. How do I know that? I don't, it's just my opinion. He just hasn't shown me much to get excited about. He'll be a nice receiver, have a 6 or 8 year career, maybe a little longer, but he isn't going to strike fear in the hearts of anyone. Comparisons to Moulds just don't make much sense to to me. He was a a top talent coming out of college, he was a serious kickoff return threat in his first couple of years. His talent was obvious, as well as his size. Jones isn't anything like that. Lots of people would have been surprised if Moulds didn't develop into a valuable player, because his special qualities were on display his first two years. Very few people will be surprised if Zay doesn't succeed. My cousin told me early last season that Zay didn't even deserve to be in the league. I disagreed with him, but nobody was saying that about Moulds in his second season.

Responding to this and your earlier post. I'm not totally entrenched at all. I'm not saying Zay isn't going to make the team. I'm saying I can see the scenario, actually multiple scenarios under which he doesn't make the team. And I agree with you, there are multiple scenarios where he does make the time and is a significant contributor. You're correct about Foster taking the next step, and you're right about Beasley and Brown both being less than certain to be the "answer" or a significant part of the answer. I don't know what's going to happen. After I wrote my last post, I went out for a while. While I was driving I was thinking about it, and I think where you and I really differ is our view of Jones. You said a few posts back (maybe yesterday) that the Bills may be surprised to find that Zay is the next Robert Woods if they let him go (trade or cut). That's where we disagree. I don't see him ever becoming Robert Woods. I don't see him as having shown in his first two years any of the potential Woods showed in his first two years, so I don't see how he's ever going to be that kind of complete #2. My argument in all of this is based on that view of Zay. If McDermott sees Zay as I do, I think Zay has a real fight on his hands, because it means he can't add much to the team this year or in the future. If McD sees the potential you see, then Zay's essentially a lock to make the team. I'd never let him go after two years if I thought he was on the path to becoming Woods.