Shaw66

I have to say I don't buy this "help out Allen" thing. What will help out Allen is (1) his continuing to learn how to read and recognize NFL defenses, (2) how to adjust the offense to what he sees in the defenst and (3) getting him an offensive line that protects him and supports a decent running game. If he has those thinks, the Bills just need to have receivers who know how to run routes and hold on to the ball. Receivers get open based on scheme, and a well-run offense with a QB who knows what he's looking at always gets a receiver open somewhere. Sure, a stud TE or a stud #1 wideout makes life easier for a QB, but a stud receiver can't cover for an inadequate QB nearly as well as a stud QB can cover for an inadequate receiver. Allen HAS to be good, and getting a receiver to "make" him good is a bogus concept.

If the Bills take Hock at 9, I'll be delighted, because it will mean that the Bills see all the things you see, and they have validated their conclusion with investigation of all the other factors that they value and can evaluate. If they take Hock at 9, I'm pretty certain that he will be starting by the time he gets to the middle of his rookie season. And I'll be fine with that. I just think the Bills' BPA is much more likely to be a lineman. I think it's hard for any TE to BPA at 9. Maybe Hock is the exception.

Two things: 1. I don't expect to convince you or anyone else about this. I've taken the same position about tight ends for at least 10 years. I think I'm right, but I rarely convince anyone who thinks otherwise (on this or any other subject). 2. I haven't spent one minute watching Hock (I don't even know what his full name is), and I've read no scouting reports about him. You and others may be correct; he may the best tight end in the history of football, or at least on a par with Gonzalez and Gronk. I understand that. If he IS that guy, then by all means, he should be taken at 9. However, he has to be all of that, he has to be THAT good, to change your team long-term. If he isn't THAT good, then there's a higher probability that some lineman (O or D) you can draft at 9 will be more valuable to your team long-term. That makes the TE pick at 9 high-risk, high reward. As I said, one of my rules for success in the draft is "don't miss with your first-round pick." A high-risk, high-reward guy increases the chances you will miss, and that hurts the team long-term. I'm just not willing to bet on a tight end.

I agree. I think it's easy to fall in love with the best NFL tight ends, because they seem to make a lot of plays, but in the grand scheme I think it's unusual for a tight end to be a major long-term impact player for your team. Look at Graham when he went to Seattle. He was going to make their offense devastating. The reality is it's tough for a TE to be the guy who drives the offense. I don't know about BADO's list, only because I'm not even sold on wideouts. Other than QB, shut-down corner and an occasional safety, I don't think skill position players have the impact on the team that linemen and linebackers do. I think BPA is defined in part by importance to the team. Not in terms of need, just in terms of how important the position is the schemes you're running. I think more or less every coach will tell you that the overall strength of his offensive line and his defensive line is more important than the overall strength of his receiver room. That translates into this: if you have a receiver prospect and an offensive line prospect, and their potential to be All-Pro is exactly equal, the lineman is your BPA. Not because you have a need, but because your team is better served long-term with a star lineman than a star receiver. And I put tight end behind the wideouts in that analysis. So I think it's hard for a TE to be your BPA at 9. The position just isn't as important as some others. In other words, I think a tight end who is worth a pick at 9 just isn't as important to the team as an offensive tackle who is worth a pick at 9.

I agree with this, except I think it's extremely hard to prove. The pro-TE folks aren't buying it. I've pretty much come around to the view that the winning formula is to have a franchise QB and have good total talent on the team, regardless of the rest of the positions. That's Belichick's approach. Shut-down corner is about the only position where he really wants a special talent. I think McB are following this approach. They want really good athletes dedicated to their team concept, and they want to get better every day, every week, every year. Year by year they upgrade the talent by taking the most talented players available to them. And in evaluating talent, I think they factor in the positions that players play. We had a brief discussion a couple weeks ago about how a guy who is a spectacular 3-4 LB prospect needs to be evaluated based on his importance to the team in the scheme the team plays, so no matter how good he is in the 3-4, the question is how good will he be in the 4-3. That is, 3-4 skills aren't fundamental to how the Bills play football. The extreme, silly example is the best punter in the history of football may be in the draft class, but he isn't your BPA because punting isn't fundamental to how you play football. Similarly, unless you're going to do what Belichick did with Gronk and Hernandez, tight end isn't fundamental to how the Bills want to play football. Protecting to the quarterback is fundamental. Getting at the other QB is fundamental. Having a HOF tight end isn't any more important to the Bills' philosophy than a HOF OLB or a HOF wideout. Taking a shot at the potential of a tight end makes more sense than taking a shot at a first-round punter, but it makes less sense than taking a shot at the potential in a lineman.

This is quite interesting. I'm not sure it's correct, but it has logic on its side. So it follows that the smart move in looking for tight ends is to draft one in later rounds and keep doing it until one turns into a star. And look for a star in free agency. In the meantime, what you need is a guy (exactly the kind of guy McDermott loves) who will spend all of his time and energy and whatever athletic ability he has learning all the difficult stuff you describe. That guy likely will be as productive as a first-round, future Pro Bowl guy while the future Pro-Bowl guy is learning all the stuff he has to learn. This analysis brings me back to a conclusion I reached several years ago, which is that tight end just isn't that important a position that it makes sense to use an early first-round choice on one. It's not so much that the position isn't important, because it's become more important in the past 10 years; it's just that you get better value at other positions high in the first-round. It just isn't very likely that you're going to find a tight end high in the first round who is going to change your team in his first two or three years. Sure, you MIGHT find a Gronk, but you can get a good offensive tackle high in the first round, and he's going to play for you from day one and make an impact on your team. The chances of finding a Gronk, who impacts your team from day one, are pretty small. I know fans love one tight end coming out, but I'll be disappointed if that's the Bills' pick at 9. I mean, if he's the pick, I'm sure Beane will know what he's doing, but I view a tight end pick at 9 as a high risk proposition. With a much higher likelihood of success, you can get an offensive or defensive lineman at 9, and I believe that success in the first round is one of the most important principles in good team building. QB is the only position that merits a high-risk, high-reward approach in the first round. Spiller and Maybin were high-risk, high-reward, and those picks impacted the Bills' future for years.

I get this. Thanks. I've always said the draft is like Christmas morning. And it's true, there's some regret every year. It killed me for the few moments between the announcement that the Bills had traded up, not knowing whether they would take Watkins or Mack. I wanted both. Bills got that one wrong. Last year I didn't have a problem. Once the first two QBs were gone, my head kept telling me "Rosen." Then the trade up happened, and my heart took over. "Allen! Allen! Allen!" I wanted the big body and the big arm for Christmas, and I was rewarded. Maybe you just have to wait and get a little older. I'm finding I have lost interest in the draft. I don't know who the best players are (except from a few discussions I've read here), and (as always) I'm following the lead of the Bills' brain trust. Beane says he's going BPA, his team will do their homework and pick a guy. I'm confident they will get a good one. (No reason for the confidence other than he seems to have done pretty well so far, and I'm always inclined to trust whoever the guy is - Polian, Nix, Whaley, Beane. And I've stopped worrying about the ones who got away. One thing I like about McD is that he preaches that it's not about the other teams, it's about the Bills. It's about the talent the Bills assemble and their dedication to a process designed to build a winning franchise. All those other guys are just obstacles who get in the way of the Bills' objective. That's in the nature of things. Just get a good guy tomorrow night, or two. And get two good guys, maybe three, the second night. Just keep adding good guys.

I can't imagine Beane giving up next year's first. QB is the only position I'd do that for, and he isn't looking for a QB. I think k a trade down is more likely than a trade up.

I think we're learning a bit about the kind of running backs McBeane like. They live Shady, but if they can't get a Hall of Fame type runner that want touch bbn inside his with good ball security. I think Yeldon's style is a lot like Gore's.

Wow!!! That never ever occurred to me. That's really original. Thanks for the insight. Okay, so now that you've caught on that the QB is the one exception, just as running back is the one exception for the Giants, Beane is going BPA in round one.

I'm thrilled with what he did last year. Time will tell. I agree about DT and OT, buys who will start or play a lot this year. I'd like two more eventual starters out of the seven rounds. Four total starters is about as much as we can reasonably expect; once you get beyond four, you're talking about an exceptional draft. Now that Qb and MLB are settled, I've gone back to my fall back view about the draft, which is that you have keep working on the o line and d line. Get studs for the lines, and the rest will fall into place.

There was a story about when Tim Duncan was becoming a free agent, at the top of his game. He hadn't decided whether he was going to stay in San Antonio or try his luck someplace else, a move that probably would get him more money than San Antonio was going to give him. Pop called him and said "let's go out to dinner." Three hour meal, and they did not talk about basketball once. No once. The next morning, Duncan called his agent and told him to negotiate the best deal he could get in San Antonio, because he wasn't leaving.

If you're interested, take a look at this long piece on ESPN.com about Greg Popovich's job, basketball, and his passion, food and wine. http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26524600/secret-team-dinners-built-spurs-dynasty Turns out Pop is a great connoisseur, and he regularly organizes really high end dinners at the best restaurants around the league. Three to four hour dinners, 8 or 10 courses, all kinds of wine. The meals are legendary. Pop arranges all the details; what food is served, what wine, where the tables are set up, who sits where. And here's what's interesting. He does it as a team building activity. All his players say they've never been on a team that did this, and it was a lot to do with their success. Ray Allen drops a miracle three on the Spurs in game 6 of the NBA finals, the team is crushed, and Pop's reaction was "we're all going out to dinner. Tonight." And off they went. Pop believes that building relationships over meals is important. And it's part of what makes his players love him. I think McDermott wants his team to have really strong relationships. Can't do it the same way with a football team - just too many guys to take them all to an intimate dinner at some super restaurant in Seattle, but that's the kind of environment he's trying to build.

Ryan - You make a good point. We all should recognize that Nate is going to be a part of Bills' lore forever, because his experience in Buffalo was so extraordinarily bad. There's no denying it. What follows is NOT INTENDED to comment on what anyone has said here. It's just my thoughts about Peterman and how I think he should be treated. If we're going to joke about it, that's fine. But not the guy. The guy was doing everything he could to be good. It just didn't work. We all know how hard it is do what he was trying to do - be a successful NFL QB, and we should have respect for the guy who did his best at it all along the way. It's guys like that, with that heart, who McBeane want on their team. That's exactly why he survived as long as he did with the Bills; other teams would have dumped him much earlier, but McDermott wouldn't give up on him. Couldn't, because that kind of determination is what McD literally loves. There are plenty of funny stories people may tell about Wide Right, but Bills fans practically never went after Norwood about it. He wasn't a jerk, a prima donna. He was just a guy doing everything he could to win. He just didn't do it that day. Norwood had that heart, too, and that's why no one made it about Norwood. Want another example? Don Beebe. Catching Lett wasn't a bad thing, of course, like Peterman's experience was, but it happened in a lost-cause game in what was becoming the annual humiliation of the Bills. It just didn't matter, except in one category: heart. We've loved Beebe since that day just because he WOULD NOT QUIT. Want another? Talley. Want another? Kelly. Bills fans love their players do everything they can to win. Everything. Bills fans love the players with heart. So, yeah, it IS a lot of fun talking about the Peterman experiment, and Bills fans will do it for a long time. If Allen turns into a star, the Allen Story sill start with Peterman Story, just to emphasize where the team was when Allen arrived. But whatever happens to Peterman and to the Bills over the next ten years, he deserves to be talked about with respect and admiration and maybe even gratitude for what the man was trying to do. Just like Flores and Powell, and just like Talley and Beebe and Kelly. Yes, even just like Norwood. .

Hey, Marv! That's hysterical!!! I love it. I got the logic of the Lamonica trade; the Bills thought they had a great defense and needed only a veteran level headed QB (Flores) and a serious number 1 receiver (Powell). It actually made sense. HOWEVER, in terms of evaluating the players in the trade, and what their individual futures in the league might look like, the Bills wholly misjudged each player. Nothing will make up for the Lamonica trade. That's why that trade is legendary.

I'm ashamed that I clicked on this thread. Mel Kiper's opinion is based on what, exactly? I give the guy credit for having marketed himself so successfully.

If I recall correctly, in his predraft press conference Beane said his scouts will work over the weekend, submit some stuff on Monday, then go home. As others have said, apparently it's not unusual.

I agree there were a lot of clear statements made by various parties, but I wouldn't call it a dialog. The deal didn't happen for one or more of four reasons: 1. Bills and Steelers couldn't agree on trade terms. 2. Bills and AB couldn't agree on money 3. AB didn't want to come to Buffalo 4. Bills became concerned over character issues. Now, I know AB has said it wasn't that he wouldn't come to Buffalo, but that is not at all the original message we were hearing from him. It seams it isn't 1., because it sure seemed like the deal had gotten past the trade negotiations. But maybe the Raiders came back with a better offer, and the Bills wouldn't match it. But I don't think there's any clarity on how those issues combined to reach the end point where the Bills pulled the plug. Not that it matters all that much. They couldn't make a deal. I don't think that's anything we can ascribe to Beane doing a good job and doing a bad job unless and until we have those kinds of details.

As a wise man said to me yesterday, we've had years of exciting drafts and boring seasons. Wouldn't it be nice to turn that around? If a boring draft is the price of a successful season, I'm prepared to be bored. By the way, I agree. It IS boring.

Beane has been extraordinarily clear that in the first couple of rounds the teams needs will have NOTHING to do with his pick. He doesn't care if the pick falls to the offense or the defense. He is trying to improve the total talent on the team, and you do that by taking the BPA. Having said that, I agree with you that Beane is likely to go offense in the first round, but not for the reason you give. What he has said is that when there's a lot of talent clustered in one position group, lile d line, he is inclined to go away from that group on the assumption that there's so much talent there that he will be able to get good quality at that position group in a later round. So I'd think if he has two guys rated more nor less evenly, he would go with the offensive guy, because defense is deep in the draft.

I really don't think we've heard the full story about how that deal died. Who pulled the plug is different from who made deal ubdoable. I'm not arguing with your take on it. Just saying that I don't think any of us knows the whole story. Beane seemed to comment on it with carefully chosen words.

I don't agree. With this at all. First, McCoy is every bit as much an impact player as any of the five you named. Second, it's a whole new game thus year with the offensive line. No one knows how much better the line will be, but it could be a lot better. If it is, everything on offense changes. If the line is significantly better and if Allen improves, the skill players WILL suffice. Brown and Beasley are solid players and will get the Bills through the season just fine. If the line isn't better or if Allen doesn't improve adding a star receiver won't help. The Bills can either offense or defense in the draft. And if they go offense, it might be a lineman.

I'm having trouble finding interesting things to talk about, so I'm creating my own. This thread actually turned out to be pretty interesting.

Thanks. I didn't know that. Then the notion of a day 2 trade makes more sense. Hmmm. That's an interesting prospect.

Pretty sure I'll be at Jets and at Browns. At Giants is tempting.