Shaw66

I know. What you say makes some sense, but not enough to convince me. As I said, I've changed my mind about Zay. I used to say what you're saying. I think Zay will have a decent career in the league - five or six years or eight years. He can have a career that might approach but not quite get to what Cotchery did. People will be happy to have him on their team, he'll fill a need, but he's not going to be anyone's go-to number 2 for more than a year or two. That's what I see in him now. What I'm saying is that if I'm correct about his upside, it's possible that Williams could be just as good as Zay was last season and have better upside. And I'm saying that even could be true about Sills. Since Zay isn't likely to be the one driving the receiving corps - much more likely that's Beasley or Brown - Zay may not be all that important to the Bills in 2019, and even less important in 2020. If Williams turns out to be his equal in 2019, Zay's in trouble.

All true. We'll know in September.

Hap - You make good points. And we both know we're both just amateurs at this. All we can do is wait and see what happens. In particular, Sills has to be a long shot, for exactly the reasons you give. The Bills took exactly that long shot on Foster last season, as you point out. So I wouldn't count him out for that reason. And particularly in particular Williams. You seem a bit stuck on his history, which is undeniable. Put the history aside for a moment. Physically, the guy is superior to Zay. He just is. His behavior has been under control for two years and he's playing for a coach who teaches a personal philosophy that is exactly what Williams needs. I don't think it's a stretch to think that Williams could be better than Zay out of the box and has a higher upside. I think there was an eight minutes of Bills' drops video. It wasn't just Zay. I have to say that when I saw it, I was surprised how many ugly drops Zay had in 2018. I thought he had improved, and he had. Just not so much as I remember.

You know, I've defended Zay for two years, and I'm starting to see him differently now. I'm having trouble identifying anything that he really does well. He's just out there, pretty good at taking what the game is giving to him, but not making anything happen himself. I can see him getting better at aspects of the game, but not being someone who drives the game, even a little. He's not ever going to be a solid number 2 receiver. To be a good no. 2 you need something special. You need to be like Robert Woods, who almost looks like a one but never really gets there. You need to be a big-time possession receiver. You need to stand out at something, and I'm not getting that from Zay. I think it would be unusual to let a second round guy go after only two seasons, so I'm not saying it WILL happen. That said, I'm not going to be surprised if it DOES happen.

The incident at Auburn was, I believe, his SECOND problem. He got Auburn from junior college. He was in junior college because he got into some trouble coming out of high school or early at some other D-1 school. Junior college was something like his last chance, he succeeded, got to Auburn. Then he had the incident. When the Rams signed him, it was sort of like another last chance. He wasn't ready. Canada was REALLY the last chance, and he seems to have turned his life around. Problem is that there's always the fear that he'll screw up again. He's had a pretty bumpy road to get to a real opportunity in the NFL. It isn't clear whether he's going to take advantage of it.

Yeah, it's absolutely rose colored. Maybe he just can't do it. But the picture of the guy is very clear: if there is any way, any way at all that he CAN do it, he WILL. This is one determined dude. May not be good enough, may screw up, may not make it for any number of reasons. But this is second-round talent with new-found determination to succeed that has stayed on track for two years. If he makes it, he's beating out Zay. Zay's not safe. It sounds like this guy is as good or better than Zay at everything. Definitely at making the big, contested catch. But also route running, runs after catch, blocking. He's a tough dude in all aspects of the game, and that's something we never say about Zay.

I agree with you. I think this is an unusual guy - a guy who had round one or round two written all over him who completely blew up his life. Now, it seems, he's back on track. Think about that for a minute - this is round one, round two talent who's been sitting on a shelf somewhere, doing more or less nothing. And now, it seems, he's back on track. I watch the video (not today, but back when he signed) and I am amazed at his hands. He fights for balls all day long. I wrote this several weeks ago talking about Williams: he's in Buffalo because he identified McDermott as a father-figure or an AA leader. This guy is quoted in the article saying he's good so long as he doesn't get off track. He stays on track by staying committed to football, and in McDermott he sees someone preaching exactly what Williams thinks he needs - focus on the right stuff, all the time. McDermott's culture, his values, are exactly what Williams wants for himself. McDermott sees a guy who is, apparently, a genuinely nice guy, straight shooter who turns into a really, really tough competitor when he gets on football field. He sees a guy who will do anything to win football games. The problem is that once he turned into that really, really tough competitor in a bar and did some serious damage to people. McDermott loves that competitive spirit, and he believes his brand of commitment to life and football is perfect for Williams. It's a match made in heaven. I wrote once that Williams is a guy who plays like - LIKE, not necessarily as good as, like Hines Ward. Tough route runner, tough fighting for the ball, tough after the catch, tough blocking. Tough football player. I think we're all in for a treat. And for the old timers, if you think about it, you've heard this story before. One really, really tough, nasty football player, maybe a little too tough for civilized society, comes out of Canada and tears up the league, winning an AFL championship in Buffalo. That was fun, and if Williams makes it he's going to be fun, too.

I suppose I should add this to your thread about Zay, but you read this article, and particularly when you read about his 50-50 ball skills and the fact that he made himself a serious route runner in the slot, it's not hard to imagine Duke ahead of Zay on the depth chart by the end of August. That leaves Zay head to head with Sills.

I hear you, and I'm one who always says you're better off giving up on talent too late than too early. Talent's too hard to come by to give up quick on someone. However, I think Zay has some things working against him. You say you can't let your judgment be clouded by preseason warriors, but consider this: McBeane saw something in Foster last summer. He didn't do much, as I recall, all summer, and no one was clamoring for him to be on the 53. So McBeane stashed him on the practice squad until he matured (and until guys ahead of him struggled), and then they activated him. If McBeane see a similar future or more for Sills and Williams, they probably can't hide them on the practice squad. Foster wasn't in high demand after the draft (again, if I recall correctly) and given how bad the Bills receivers were, other teams probably weren't all that willing to take a chance on him and put on their rosters. After all, if he wasn't in the top six in Buffalo, why would he be in the top six any place else? Williams and Sills are different. Moreover, McD has seen two full years of Zay, and he now has a very good understanding of Zay's upside. As I and others said earlier, Zay doesn't do any one thing special. He just doesn't stand out. Sills and Williams both do. They will be raw, but their potential should be clear, especially Williams, because he has some miles on him now, albeit only in Canada. And remember, McBeane aren't building for this season. They're building for the long term. So, if Zay turns out to be the number four guy - Foster and Brown wide and Beasley in the slot, Zay's not playing a big role in the offense. The Bills know his upside, and if after two years he can't hold onto a position as one of the starting three wideouts, and if Sills and Williams show potential and one of them (probably Williams) can do what Zay already does, Zay could be history. Especially when you know how much Beane likes having those late round picks. I think Zay is in a serious fight for a roster spot.

Well, a couple of things. It's not getting thrown to the curb. More likely he'd be traded. His problem may be that the Bills need to keep guys with better upside. I think someone made a good point: what about Jones is special? Not his speed, his catch radius, not his hands, and no not his route running. I think he runs decent routes, but so do a lot of them. And not his blocking, either. Sills and Williams could both be better possession receivers, and maybe better blockers. Again, no one is flat-out predicting it WILL happen; its just that it COULD happen.

The coaches never talk about how good any of the other teams are. For them, it's all about getting their team to be as good as it can be. I found myself getting excited about the 2019 Bills the other day, and then I remembered just how hard it is to win ANY game in the NFL. These are great, evenly matched teams, and they're all desperate to win. Daboll could be no better this season than last. The new Oline coach may be a failure. There's a new special teams coach, but that doesn't mean they'll be better. The defense might regress. Maybe Edmunds doesn't step up to another level of play. Most importantly, maybe Allen is a perpetual 54% completion guy, no matter what the Bills try to get him to do. If that alone turns out to be true, the Bills will have trouble winning 8 games. What do I think is going to happen? I think the offensive line is going to be better by a wide margin. Morse will take over the leadership of the line, Ford will handle business on the right side, and two veteran guards will step in play reasonably well. The result is that McCoy/Gore/Singletary will exceed 1500 yards. Allen will be over 60% and the Bills will win 9 or more. But people who aren't Bills fans and aren't paying attention still haven't realized that Allen is better than all the pre-draft analysis that said he was a project who only can throw deep. They still don't understand that the Bills acquired an entirely new, experienced offensive line. And they still think McCoy and Gore are way over the hill. I think half way into the season they'll be scratching their heads wondering where the Bills came from.

I used to listen to him a lot, and I don't know about open disdain for him. However, he has been very clear that he gets paid based on how many ears are listening and how many eyes are watching. So your list explains exactly why he says nice things about the Jets and not about the Bills.

Fair enough. I was just piling onto the same reaction others had.

Maybe in your world. The Bills under McBeane are about EVERY DETAIL. One of the details clearly is professional dress at certain times. It might be that professional dress is required whenever Mr. Pegula will be in the room, because he seems always to be in a coat and tie. Whatever the reason, the Bills are ALL ABOUT getting everything right, including how they present to the outside world. It's pretty impressive, whether you think a coat and tie is necessary or not. Friend of mine told me a story. His son got a speeding ticket and asked his father to go with him. Father insisted on a coat and tie. When they got to court, they were the only ones in business dress, and lot of people were in t-shirts, jeans or shorts. The judge said something like "when you come to this courtroom, you're speaking to the State, and you should show the Court and the State the respect it deserves. So if you aren't dressed properly, go home and get yourself cleaned up." When the son's case came up, the judge dismissed the charge, no penalty. It makes a difference.

Is OC offensive coordinator? Maybe Daboll is on the block!

I noticed, didn't think much about it. But you're right. That organization is top down doing it the way it's supposed to be done. I get the sense that the Pegulas realized, probably after Rex, that they want everything done professionally. Everything. And that's what McBeane were selling. And now on to my other reactions: At some point, not in the video but in the quotes from Beane from the Athletic, he said something like when it comes down to football skills and measureables, Beane's going with football skills. Singletary is a football player, and Beane just wasn't too concerned about his 40 times or anything else. I thought that was interesting. We've seen it a lot. Sills, Sweeney, others in this draft and before. Beane wants football smarts. In his post draft speech, he said they got guys who filled needs. He was talking particularly, I think, about the first two picks. Huh? He's sworn up and down that he's a BPA guy, then he says the Bills filled needs. I think what he means is that he won't take a guy who isn't at the top of his board just to fill a need. But when the guy at the top of his board fills a need, he'll trade up to get him. It happened at the top of the second round and again at the bottom of the third round. It's obvious how well prepared they are. They know what they're doing as the situations arise, not just sitting there with looks of surprise on their faces. Beane is so comfortable all the time. McD too. Pretty clear that both of them spent years preparing themselves to do these jobs. They thought about it, studied, even practiced. Beane's a light year ahead of Whaley, who clearly was learning on the job. For that matter, McD was better prepared to be a head coach than Rex. Rex learned from his father, and in those days for a lot of coaches it was just seat of the pants stuff. No longer. I also found it interesting how much McD was just a spectator. This was Beane's show; McD had input, just like the scouts had input, but once the board was set and the Commish said the 2019 draft was open, it was Beane and Beane alone running the show. I'd love to see the stuff we didn't see, the times they expressed disappointment that one guy or another came off the board. Great video.

It isn't absurd. Williams and Sills both had multiple NFL teams who wanted them. Neither is likely to last on the practice squad, if they show anything in camp. The question isn't whether either is better than Zay now. The question is whether they look like they will be better in November or December, as they gain experience. They will improve more in the upcoming six months than Zay will. If they look like they will be better than Zay over time, Zay is in trouble. Someone will give Buffalo a sixth or seventh round pick for him.

Alpha - I didn't watch the video, so I don't know. But I DID watch the video that was up a few weeks ago - something like 8 minutes of Bills dropsfrom 2018, and I was amazed at how many of them were Zay's. My recollection was that he had been better, but he had a lot of balls that were easy catches that he dropped, and he had several more that were reasonable NFL catches that he dropped. He has to get better, or he's toast. And I know you're saying this (you've told us about 100 times) but the more I think about this the more I think he actually could get cut.

Sills changes the picture, in my opinion. If he shows promise, the Bill's won't want to risk putting him on the practice squad. Of, as most seem to think, Beasley, Brown and Foster are the top three, Zay's upside has to be better than Williams or Sills. It might be hard for Zay to show more upside than either.

Alpha I give you credit. When you started this thread, my first reaction was no way. After a while I thought, well, maybe. Mow I think there's a good chance Zay will be gone. Beasley, Brown, Foster, Roberts, Williams, Sills could easily push Zay out. Sills? The problem the Bill's have with Sills is that if he shows real promise, they won't be able to hide him on the practice squad. The problem Zay has is that Sills and William's are his competition, and both of them are fierce competitors. Zay has to step up his game immediately, because those two will be pedal to the metal immediately. Great prediction.

Please. Never accuse me of being sober.

This thread is excellent evidence as to how difficult it is to run a pro football team. The reality is that running any large organization is a complex endeavor and cannot be reduced to a simple conclusion about anyone any aspect of the operation of the team. The notion that the team was or was not in cap hell when Beane took over makes for an an interesting discussion, but the team's cap position at any given time is only one of many aspects of the success of the franchise. Other aspects include the quality of the coaching, the quality of the players, the conference within which you are playing, the division within which you are playing and a myriad of other factors that affect the outcomes of each game and each season. These discussions often break down into name calling and battering of one another in an effort to establish one position or another about one of those aspects of the operation of a pro football team. The more dug in people get on their positions about these this particular issue, the more difficult it is for them to see and evaluate the team as a whole. It is much like McDermott's approach to team football. He has said repeatedly that the game is a complementary game; it's one where the offense, defense and special teams work togethe; it's one where teams within the team such as the offensive line team, the defensive line team, the defensive backfield team all work together. Beane and his team had many decisions to make when they took over and from day-to-day moving forward. That is the nature of the business. He has admitted frequently that not all of those decisions can be made correctly, and he has made his share of mistakes, just he has anyone else would do in that job. One major decision was the choice to gut the team and throw the team into a terrifically adverse cap situation for a relatively short period of time. That was a decision. It may have worked well it; may have worked poorly. Some other decision may have worked better and it may have worked worse. The important point is not whether the that particular decision was the best decision that could have been made. The important point is whether the decisions that he makes collectively add up to the success they are seeking to the success they are seeking to achieve. Many of us think that Beane is on a good path toward success. Whether he is will be much clearer to all of us in November.

Got it. They had a choice. You can argue about whether it would have been possible to build a winner just moving forward with what McD inherited. I really dont know. On another point, good discussion about how significant second I. total yards really is. I like the points about DVOA and passer rating. Those are two gos measures of how effective the D really was. My impression was that the offense struggled so that badly that the defense simply couldn't win games alone. A decent offense with that defense would have won a.bumch of games. O line has to perform this season. And Allen. And Daboll.

Beane's been clear. They had a choice. They didn't have the players they wanted. They could have moved them over a few years and managed the cap less drastically or they could clean house and live with the cap mess. They decided that the fastest way to get where they want to be was clean house. Given that, I don't think the notion of "getting a pass" applies. Like lots of new GMs and coaches, they wanted different players. The only question of relevance is whether they're getting the job done. It looks to me like they are. The particular question here is whether getting Star and at his price was a good move. I don't.know, and I don't trust anyone's conclusions here about that. I'd like to know what McB thinks about that question.

You make the point that I was thinking about. I don't think we have any idea what it was that caused McDermott and Beane to want to bring Star to the Bills. I firmly believe it was some combination of his play, and his attitude and his leadership skills. McDermott has said often that it is important to have a leader in every room. That means he wanted to have a leader in the defensive line room, and he knew that Kyle Williams would be leaving after 2018. I think Beane signed Star in order to fill the leadership void in the defensive line room. He also signed him because they knew about his work ethic and his general leadership skills. I think any effort to evaluate whether Star is worth what he's being paid has to be made in light of what it was that McDermott and Beane wanted, and I don't think we really understand that fully. As others have said, even his play on the field is tough to evaluate. If his job is to force double teams and simply to occupy blockers, I doubt any of us has studied his play that carefully to know how effective he has been. And M D platoons d linemen, so expecting much more tha. 50% of the snaps isn't reasonable. I think Beane knew exactly what he was doing when he wrote that check.