Shaw66

If I'm handicapping all the receivers, Beasley is my most likely to start, Brown is second and Foster and Zay are a push for the third spot. I'd say Brown has a 50-60% chance of starting.

Two teams in two years have decided he wasn't worth re-signing. Given that, why would I think Brown is an automatic starter. And it's not like Arizona and Baltimore were loaded with receivers.

Thanks. It's a pleasure reading stuff that makes sense. The truth is that when common sense and data don't align, either could be incorrect. Both data and common sense can mislead us in our thinking. So when the two don't agree, it becomes necessary to examine both the underpinnings of what we think is common sense and the actual relevance of the data to what we're seeking to conclude. The seat belt example demonstrates half of the problem; the completion percentage as a measure of passing accuracy is the other half. Just because we have data that Allen's completion percentage is low, it does not necessarily follow that he is an inaccurate thrower. It's possible his throwing is the cause of the low completion percentage, but it's also possible that other factors cause or contribute to the low percentage. In this case, as you've demonstrated, all the data pretty much supports your conclusion: his previous several years (although it's possible quarterbacking had something to do with it). what he's getting paid, the demand in the market for him last year and this year. The data says he's a guy would MIGHT be able to do great things for you, but it's far from certain he WILL do it. I'm expecting him to be the #1 receiver, but he will need to earn that role. If he doesn't produce and Zay and Foster progress, it's easy to see them as 1 and 2 with Beasley in the slot, leaving Brown with #4 spot. There's going to be real competition, and none of Foster, Jones, Williams, Sills and McKenzie are going to concede anything to Brown.

Wow. I'm not sure where some of you guys are coming from. For whatever reason, I don't care what the reason, Brown never has fulfiled what seemed to bis future in his rookie season. He just hasn't. So you have a guy who, for whatever reason, hasn't been the #1 guy you want, coming into a system that preaches that you have to earn everything you get. I am not going to pencil that guy in as a day 1 starter. Day 1 training camp, sure. Day 1 of the regular season, no. McD is going to play the guy who performs in camp. Brown will have to win the job, and his contract will have nothing to do with it. I expect he will win the job, and I expect the Bills receiving corps will be better than last season. If he doesn't and the Bills receivers aren't, then Beane will have continued a string of failed receiver decisions. What SHOULD happen is Beasley and Brown are the two most important receivers, which means Zay goes from the best in 2018 to 3rd or 4th or 5th. And, of course, ALL of this depends on Allen. If he isn't making the reads and the throws, ALL of the receivers will look like 2018 revisited.

That's the intention for sure. But he has to earn the starting job, and his career to date doesn't make him a sure thing.

Alpha I think Thirm is generally right. As a matter pure statistics, MOST players will cluster their good performances in a few games. That's how data usually falls. That's why we're so i.pressed, for example, when a guy strings 5 or 6 100 yard games together. And yes it may matter what time in the game it is, and what the score is, but as others have said, a good route and a good route is a good route and a good catch whenever it happens. As I have said before, I dont think the point is that Zay is bad. It is that you and I and others see circumstances that would cause Zay to get traded or even cut because other players offer more short- or long-teem upside. Hap - I've thought all along we have seen it more or less the same way. As I said way back somewhere, you seem to think Zay has more upside than I do, and that's just an honest difference of opinion. I agree that Robert's, Beasley and Brown are locks to make the squad. I agree that Brown is not a lock to start. I think if there is a fourth lock to make the teM, its Foster, not Zay. More so than you, I think Foster is likely to continue to improve to the point where he will be a serious threat to win one of the wideout spots. I think you agree with me that if Williams and Sills play well enough in camp and preseason, however you define well enough, Zay is in trouble. Finally, I think its great to be having a discussion about whether a guy is good enough to make the team. Last year the discussion was about whether the Bills had five or six guys good enough to be in the league. It's true, of course, that several guys could be busts and Zay starts by default, but that doesn't seem to be the way things are trending.

Even with only 2 wide I won't be surprised to see Beasley on the field and Zay sitting. I continue to think that if Zay can't make the top 3, he may be trouble. If he is your fourth or fifth guy, I'm not sure he offers the upside that others might.

6it gets hard to have a meaningful conversation when you say Zay could develop into a #1. If Zay could, any one could. What has Zay ever done that makes him look ANYTHING like OBJ, Julio, Green, Hopkins, Megatron, Fitzgerald, even that headhunter who left Miami for Cleveland? Nothing, that's what. Sure anything is possible, but Zay is about as likely to be a number 1 receiver in the NFL as I am.

I'm one who agrees with the OP that Zay could be gone, but I think it's just a reasonable possibility. If it happens it won't mean Zay is bad, just that some others are better. What has he done? As someone else pointed out, he has played all three wideout positions and had decent success. Not great but decent. So he knows and can perform in the system the Bills run. Brown and Beasley, being vets, should be able to get up that learning curve. Williams and the rookies start pretty far behind Zay. Foster is behind him too. So although I think Zay's upside is more limited than some of those others, he is more likely to perform adequately while the team figures out over the entire season whether any of the others can deliver on game day. I share Hap's view in that regard. If Zay isn't on the roster to start the season it will be because others have better upside, Foster or someone else emerged as the number 3, AND as the number 4 Zay's experience and versatility just isn't that important. If Zay is not on the roster for those reasons, that's a good thing for the Bills, because that will mean two guys, like Williams and Sills, both have demonstrated better upside than Zay, plus Foster progressing. From my point of view, Zay on the team isn't a bad outcome, Zay not on the team is better.

Nice, but you left out Duke Williams. And Foster's emergence as a Hall of Famer. Oh, and Allen's accuracy. Seriously, no one should expect that people read all the posts before posting their own thoughts. A thread is a conversation; when you're talking with a group of people and someone joins late, that person often will repeat things people said earlier, before he arrived. No one tells him to stop because we already talked about that. It is, as you say, just people jumping in and out of a conversation.

Really good point. McBeane love that flexibility. And it isn't theoretical - he has actually played all over. With Duke and Sills, it's just guys who MIGHT be able do what Zay has done.

As I just wrote to Hapless, yes, I think that is the issue. No, I'm not saying that he won't improve. My view is that although he may improve, he's not going to improve so much that he's a significant contributor to the team. How do I know that? I don't, it's just my opinion. He just hasn't shown me much to get excited about. He'll be a nice receiver, have a 6 or 8 year career, maybe a little longer, but he isn't going to strike fear in the hearts of anyone. Comparisons to Moulds just don't make much sense to to me. He was a a top talent coming out of college, he was a serious kickoff return threat in his first couple of years. His talent was obvious, as well as his size. Jones isn't anything like that. Lots of people would have been surprised if Moulds didn't develop into a valuable player, because his special qualities were on display his first two years. Very few people will be surprised if Zay doesn't succeed. My cousin told me early last season that Zay didn't even deserve to be in the league. I disagreed with him, but nobody was saying that about Moulds in his second season.

Responding to this and your earlier post. I'm not totally entrenched at all. I'm not saying Zay isn't going to make the team. I'm saying I can see the scenario, actually multiple scenarios under which he doesn't make the team. And I agree with you, there are multiple scenarios where he does make the time and is a significant contributor. You're correct about Foster taking the next step, and you're right about Beasley and Brown both being less than certain to be the "answer" or a significant part of the answer. I don't know what's going to happen. After I wrote my last post, I went out for a while. While I was driving I was thinking about it, and I think where you and I really differ is our view of Jones. You said a few posts back (maybe yesterday) that the Bills may be surprised to find that Zay is the next Robert Woods if they let him go (trade or cut). That's where we disagree. I don't see him ever becoming Robert Woods. I don't see him as having shown in his first two years any of the potential Woods showed in his first two years, so I don't see how he's ever going to be that kind of complete #2. My argument in all of this is based on that view of Zay. If McDermott sees Zay as I do, I think Zay has a real fight on his hands, because it means he can't add much to the team this year or in the future. If McD sees the potential you see, then Zay's essentially a lock to make the team. I'd never let him go after two years if I thought he was on the path to becoming Woods.

This is good analysis, although I think that several pages back you said Brown, Beasley and Roberts ARE shoo-ins. Just pointing it out, not arguing about that. I don't think anyone's guaranteed a slot, but I will be surprised if any of those three don't make it. You're right about Foster and Jones last season. As we've said, and I think you agree if Foster makes the next step, he can take the second wideout spot from Zay, leaving Zay #4. I'm NOT saying Foster will do that, only that he could. I think Zay's in a real fight for the #3 spot, because the coaches certainly would prefer Foster's speed in the lineup, if he can do the other things he needs to do. And once Zay falls to 4, he's actually 5 because of Roberts, and the 5th receiver on almost any team just isn't all that important.

I don't hate him. I have been a Zay defender since I came to this board. What I'm saying is that he could be a victim of the process that McBeane are running. They want competition at all positions, and 2019 is the first year where they have assembled enough players to create competition. And they are building with a serious eye to the future; that is, personnel decisions are not made strictly on what makes the team better for 2019. 2020 and 2021 are always on their radar. I don't think Zay's done a lot to stand out. All he's done is be the best of a pretty bad collection of receivers. Nobody at any time in 2018 was saying, "Zay's a keeper." Compare him to Milano, for example. Milano makes things happen. Nobody said that about Zay last season. Zay's problem isn't so much whether he's good enough to make the team in 2019. He clearly is. His problem is that he isn't clearly good enough, not yet, to make the team in 2020. How do I know? Because McBeane will continue to bring in competition at all positions, including wide receiver. And his problem is whether this year he can make the top 3 receivers in terms of snaps. If he isn't in the top 3, he isn't very valuable to the team. Think about it: If Brown, Beasley and Foster are top three (IF - I don't know if Foster can make it), then Zay becomes something like the 45th most important guy on a 53-man roster. Why? Well, Roberts is more important, because of his kick returning. So that means in importance to the team, Zay is at best the 5th most important receiver on the roster. There are 7 or 8 offensive linemen ahead of him, 6 to 8 defensive linemen ahead of him, 4 or 5 linebackers, 6 DBs, a punter, a place kicker, a long snapper, 4 running backs, a couple of special teamers, 3 tight ends. Your fifth receiver just isn't a very important guy, and there isn't much difference between your fifth and your sixth. Now think about McBeane. If Foster becomes their number three, then Zay just isn't a key man on the team. They're mantra is continuous improvement, so they're looking at Zay and his competition in terms of their potential to improve and become an impact player. That's when Zay is in trouble, because he just hasn't such much to make anyone think that they HAVE to have him. It's all about who steps up, and who has the potential to step up. As much as I like him and root for him, I'm not sure Zay does very well in that competition.

I actually think there is some of that. That comment makes him sound like an alcoholic - I'm never recovered and I'm fine if I stay on course. And I don't think it was just the violent episode. He admits that he kind of quit at the NFL level, and he didn't really know what it would take when he got to Canada. So I think he's saying that he'll be fine so long as he stays committed. The reason I think it isn't much of an issue is because he understands now what it takes, and everyone in Canada says he was an unbelievable teammate - really tough competitor, completely dedicated to getting better and winning. The reason I think it isn't foolish to think he can have an impact is because he has the talent to be thought of as a first or second round pick AND he isn't a rookie coming in with that talent. He's a guy who's played committed, serious professional football for two years at a very high level. Yes, it was Canada, but it was serious football and his talent showed. He learned routes, he learned checks, he learned defenses. He know HOW to do it. He has more to learn, but he isn't a rookie.

That's an interesting point. Brown looked like a star as a rookie, but never really emerged. If he's the Bills #1, that might work, but he isn't a #1 who regularly demands a double. If Foster emerges as you hope, you're correct, he could be special. Brown #2 to Foster's #1 is awesome, with Beasley in the slot. Foster really looked like some light bulb lit in the second half of the season. Maybe it was just a little hot streak, but it seemed like every game he did something special. Training camp will be fun. All of what you say - Allen, Oliver, Edmunds, oline, receivers, Singletary. Knox and Sills. A lot of interesting stories. You can start to see the competition philosophy at work. The question around the lineup is who's going to win, not is there anyone who's good enough. Receivers should be good enough, oline good enough, dline good enough. Not what you want as a finished product, but no glaring holes. Just a bunch of guys fighting to get the snaps.

Let me say that I haven't been here for several hours, and although it's rambled a bit, this thread is a really good discussion by a bunch of people who know something about football and the Bills. People who are complaining about a long thread about Zay Jones are missing the point. This stuff is interesting. As for 5 or 6, I don't know, because I don't study the game in that kind of detail. I don't know what's involved in deciding on 5 or 6, what other positions essentially get the benefit of that extra body. I've always assumed it was 6. I've heard 5. I suppose with the running back logjam, the receiver roster could be shaved. I always assume the kick returner is one of the five or six (although occasionally you'll have a DB returner). I agree with Hap - Beasley, Brown and Roberts are the only locks to make the receiver squad. Something I said when Roberts was acquired was that McKenzie would be gone, and I still think so. McKenzie may have some upside; I haven't seen it, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have it. McKenzie's best moments last season were on jet sweeps and similar plays designed to get him the ball in space. As I understand it, Roberts has already done some of that for the Jets, and if he as any aptitude at all on those plays, aptitude in the sense that he has the ability to get meaningful yardage, then McKenzie will lose the battle for that spot. Roberts will be the kick returner and the last receiver, in terms of playing time. As he learns route running, if he does, maybe he moves up to more snaps. But just as the jet sweep guy, and the jet sweep decoy, the reverse guy and the reverse decoy, Roberts should be more effective than McKenzie, maybe a lot more, just because his kick return skills translate to those specialized plays. In my mind, as others have said, that means Zay is fighting to be the fourth or fifth or sixth guy to make it. In terms of playing time, he could be the third receiver, behind Brown and Beasley. Assuming he continues to show progress, Foster seems clearly to be the fourth guy to make the team - that is, Foster is the fourth after Brown, Beasley and Roberts. The Bills need his speed, and late last season he began to look like a guy who can be dangerous in the mid-range as well as deep. That kind of progress would actually push Brown for playing time, or more likely Zay. When you go three wide, in your ideal lineup, would you rather go Brown, Beasley, Foster or Brown, Beasley, Jones? If Foster can be a serious receiver in the whole route tree, I'm playing Foster ahead of Zay, just for the deep potential Foster brings, and his potential on slants and skinny posts. Foster and Brown on the field together forces the defense to cover the whole field, sideline to sideline. Zay doesn't do that. So I think Zay is at serious risk of losing the 3 spot. So that makes Foster the fourth man into a group of five or six to make the receiver squad. Who's left? Zay, Williams, Sills, Ray-Ray, McKenzie. I think McKenzie just doesn't fit, with Roberts here. Ray-Ray, I don't know. Never excited me. If I'm right, its Zay, Williams and Sills fighting for one or two spots. If I'm wrong about either McKenzie or Ray-Ray, it's because they've developed into something that's a serious threat, and it's probably something that Zay doesn't offer. And I think that's Zay's problem with Williams and Sills too. Zay just looks like a decent journeyman NFL receiver and hasn't shown much to cause anyone to expect more of him. Williams and Sills, and possibly Ray-Ray and McKenzie, all may look less well-rounded now, but all have better upside - Williams and Sills could be serious red zone targets, and Ray-Ray and McK could be serious threats with the ball in the open field, receiver like the little guys Belichick has played for years. In other words, I can project any of the four being someone the defense worries about some of the time; I have trouble projecting Zay the same way. . About the guys who are 5th and 6th on the receiving squad, the coaches are going to ask "Why do we need him? What does he do for us?" I think Zay may find that he doesn't offer as good an answer to those questions than some other guys who've had less NFL playing time. And one final thought: the questions for the coaches change if they're getting good tight end production. If the tight end is a threat in the offense, then maybe Zay's steady experience and nice route running becomes more of an asset in the game. On the other hand, a good TE game also could mean that the offense can afford to take more of a risk with the last receiver on the field, and then, again, the others might offer more than Zay. I don't know how it will go, but I think Zay has serious competition. It didn't seem like it was likely three months ago, but I think it's serious now. Thanks again to everyone for some great discussion. EDIT: And my apologies. I seemed to have just rehashed what others said in the last hour.

McD loves the high motor, intense competitor guys. I've started wondering whether there's too much focus on that type of player. Maybe you can't have too many of them. They got Murphy based on his motor. Maybe he will still work out. I just give as an example.

I know. What you say makes some sense, but not enough to convince me. As I said, I've changed my mind about Zay. I used to say what you're saying. I think Zay will have a decent career in the league - five or six years or eight years. He can have a career that might approach but not quite get to what Cotchery did. People will be happy to have him on their team, he'll fill a need, but he's not going to be anyone's go-to number 2 for more than a year or two. That's what I see in him now. What I'm saying is that if I'm correct about his upside, it's possible that Williams could be just as good as Zay was last season and have better upside. And I'm saying that even could be true about Sills. Since Zay isn't likely to be the one driving the receiving corps - much more likely that's Beasley or Brown - Zay may not be all that important to the Bills in 2019, and even less important in 2020. If Williams turns out to be his equal in 2019, Zay's in trouble.

All true. We'll know in September.

Hap - You make good points. And we both know we're both just amateurs at this. All we can do is wait and see what happens. In particular, Sills has to be a long shot, for exactly the reasons you give. The Bills took exactly that long shot on Foster last season, as you point out. So I wouldn't count him out for that reason. And particularly in particular Williams. You seem a bit stuck on his history, which is undeniable. Put the history aside for a moment. Physically, the guy is superior to Zay. He just is. His behavior has been under control for two years and he's playing for a coach who teaches a personal philosophy that is exactly what Williams needs. I don't think it's a stretch to think that Williams could be better than Zay out of the box and has a higher upside. I think there was an eight minutes of Bills' drops video. It wasn't just Zay. I have to say that when I saw it, I was surprised how many ugly drops Zay had in 2018. I thought he had improved, and he had. Just not so much as I remember.

You know, I've defended Zay for two years, and I'm starting to see him differently now. I'm having trouble identifying anything that he really does well. He's just out there, pretty good at taking what the game is giving to him, but not making anything happen himself. I can see him getting better at aspects of the game, but not being someone who drives the game, even a little. He's not ever going to be a solid number 2 receiver. To be a good no. 2 you need something special. You need to be like Robert Woods, who almost looks like a one but never really gets there. You need to be a big-time possession receiver. You need to stand out at something, and I'm not getting that from Zay. I think it would be unusual to let a second round guy go after only two seasons, so I'm not saying it WILL happen. That said, I'm not going to be surprised if it DOES happen.

The incident at Auburn was, I believe, his SECOND problem. He got Auburn from junior college. He was in junior college because he got into some trouble coming out of high school or early at some other D-1 school. Junior college was something like his last chance, he succeeded, got to Auburn. Then he had the incident. When the Rams signed him, it was sort of like another last chance. He wasn't ready. Canada was REALLY the last chance, and he seems to have turned his life around. Problem is that there's always the fear that he'll screw up again. He's had a pretty bumpy road to get to a real opportunity in the NFL. It isn't clear whether he's going to take advantage of it.

Yeah, it's absolutely rose colored. Maybe he just can't do it. But the picture of the guy is very clear: if there is any way, any way at all that he CAN do it, he WILL. This is one determined dude. May not be good enough, may screw up, may not make it for any number of reasons. But this is second-round talent with new-found determination to succeed that has stayed on track for two years. If he makes it, he's beating out Zay. Zay's not safe. It sounds like this guy is as good or better than Zay at everything. Definitely at making the big, contested catch. But also route running, runs after catch, blocking. He's a tough dude in all aspects of the game, and that's something we never say about Zay.