Shaw66

I think you can bet on Allen. I just think he has all the parts. He wants it. He studies. He's a great athlete. And he has a coach who is perfect for him. I think NFL will be talking about him this season, and I think he'll be a premier QB within five years. Remember, it's continuous improvement. His line will get better and his receivers will get better. He'll get better. It's going to be awesome.

I think he was the best athlete on the team until Tyrod showed up. Some people say Tyrod is the best athlete they've ever seen. Kyle was a great football player. Did you see the video of McDermott introducing Kyle when he announced his retirement to the team? McDermott said the first time he ever saw Kyle was at the Pro Bowl when McDermott was one of the coaches. He said Kyle stood out as an athlete and a worker. He said it meant a lot to him to get a chance to coach Kyle in Buffalo. High praise.

Yes, McCoy is a bit of a feast or famine runner. He has a lot of runs that go for no gain. He needs a hole to work with. He had none last year. Gore wouldn't have done much with the Bills last season. His style is similar to Ivory's, and Ivory could get nothing last season, either.

He wasn't the same runner after injuries, whether the surgery was necessary or not. I don't know where you get these stats, but LeVeon Bell must lead the league in time behind the line scrimmage. He just waits and waits. So time behind the line of scrimmage isn't necessarily a bad thing. There are styles and there are styles. \ I think the Bills have two smart, savvy runners with different styles, two guys who want to win. And two decent young backups. I like it.

He's only 36? I thought he was old.

The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66 “The Hopeless Optimist” I know I’m probably heading for a big crash, but I can’t help it: I think the golden age of the Buffalo Bills is upon us. I think we are about to witness the greatest run of excellence in the history of the franchise, and one of the greatest of all time in the NFL. Maybe it’s just because I’ve lived a long life and been fortunate to have had a lot of good things happen around me. About the only good thing that hasn’t happened is true greatness for my football team. I was there for the AFL championships and the Super Bowls. Now it’s time to go all the way. Whatever the reason, I can’t talk myself out of believing the Bills are about to take off. It’s not that I expect the 2019 Bills to be great – someplace in the 9-7 to 7-9 range once again this year; what I expect is that the 2020 Bills will be a solid playoff team and a regular preseason Super Bowl contender after that. It could come a year earlier or a year later, but it’s coming. “WHAT??!!! You can’t be serious,” readers scream. I’m serious. I’m serious for the combination of several reasons. 1. The Process I keep listening to McDermott and Beane, learning about what they are doing. If I understand it, I think it will work to build a team that is a powerhouse for many seasons. It’s about continuous improvement, getting better at your job. McDermott says it over and over. Get better every day. That’s why they want rookies. They want the benefit of a football player for ten years, getting better year after after year. Part of the genius of that system is that new guys get pulled up to level of the rest of the team pretty quickly. When the team is playing at a good level, rookies come in and learn quickly to play at the good level. When the team is great, rookies come in and learn to play at the great level. McDermott saw Andy Reid do it, and he’s watched Bill Belichick do it. Everyone is challenged to get better, game after game, season after season. Players are challenged. Coaches are challenged, too. McDermott is expected to improve. Daboll is expected to improve. Frazier. Everyone. If you aren’t working to improve, you aren’t part of the process. No player is guaranteed a job, and every player knows that he will sit or worse as soon as someone comes along who does it better. And the players are happy with that, because they understand they are part of a bigger process. If they’ve worked hard and made the team better, they will share in the team’s future success, because they were part of building the platform from which it all took off. I guarantee that when McDermott wins a Super Bowl in Buffalo, Kyle Williams will know that he owns a part of that trophy. Continuous improvement. 2. The Coach My apologies to the lifelong atheists in the crowd, but there’s no way to describe McDermott except in religious terms. He’s organizing a cult, with avid followers who get high on the Word. It’s his personal version of The 300, with everyone doing his job, doing anything, for the benefit of everyone else, with a little of Andy of Mayberry wholesome goodness thrown it. He practices what he preaches. He’s about doing the right thing all the time, preparing, learning, communicating. He lives in a world where everyone earns what he gets, and everyone understands why they sometimes don’t get what they tried to earn. He expects a Lombardi Trophy and nothing less, and he understands that if he doesn’t get it, someone else better will get the job. And he’s okay with that. He imposes that world on his players, and he expects them to be okay with it, so he must be okay with it, too. He cares about everyone in his organization, and he wants everyone in the organization to care, too. Was there an element of commercialism in how McDermott and the Bills adopted PanchoBilla in his final weeks? Sure. But there was genuine caring and concern, too, and there was genuine grief at the end. Is McDermott perfect? No. Does he make mistakes? Plenty. But it’s about continuous improvement, learning and getting better very day. He WILL get better, because he won’t accept less from himself. And don’t forget, he took his first head coaching job at about the same age as Bill Belichick, and Belichick made mistakes for years before he hit his stride. McDermott is growing into greatness. McDermott does it right, and by doing it right, those around him do it right, too. 3. The GM I just love Beane. I love his calculating approach to his job. Analyze, make a decision, evaluate, move on. Analyze, make a decision, evaluate, move one. No wasted motion. Beane’s the Chief Operating Officer of the cult. His primary job is to keep a fresh supply of qualified devotees on hand for them to study at the feet of the master. He believes in the process, and he believes in McDermott. He believes that if he continues to deliver the right players, McDermott will deliver the Lombardi. Beane’s fearless. He’s willing to make a decision and accept the consequences. He doesn’t fret over the mistakes; he just moves on to the next decision. He’s willing to make the bold move. 4. The QB It’s completely obvious that Beane and McDermott are selecting players the way they said they would: they want players who are intense and non-stop competitors, players what always want to get better, players who are driven to work at their craft every day. They want disciples. Others need not apply. The latest example is Jerry Hughes, who has evolved from an occasionally flashy, occasionally frustrating athlete to superior all-around football player and leader. It didn’t seem possible three years ago. Hughes’s contract extension says two things – that he’s matured into the kind of player and leader that McDermott wants to win with, and that Hughes can see that the Bills are the kind of organization that make him a better and more successful player. Hughes wants to be part of the success that McDermott and Beane are building; he is a disciple. And he isn’t the only one. What does that have to do with the quarterback? Just this: the quarterback is the most important player on the field, and therefore the quarterback has to be the lead disciple. In Josh Allen, Beane and McDermott found their guy. He loves to compete. He loves to learn – you can see it and hear it in his interviews. He’s so much more mature, he has so much more understanding of the game, than we saw a year ago. He handles his duties in press conferences almost flawlessly, giving thoughtful answers, deftly avoiding difficult issues, rarely being flustered. He desperately wants to do it right, on the field and off, and McDermott thrives on that attitude. Belichick got his ideal disciple in Brady. McDermott got his in Allen. And, by the way, McDermott also got 6’5”, 240 pounds, speed, mobility and a rocket arm. I think Allen is destined for greatness, because he has all the tools, mental, physical and emotional, and he has the perfect mentor. A match made, if you believe in that sort of stuff, in heaven. 5. The Owners How perfect is it that leading this whole effort is a pair of owners who are true believers in the process? They’ve lived the process, they’ve reaped the financial and personal benefits of doing it right, and now they’ve found a coach and a GM who preach the process. They’re believers in continuity. They know being great takes time, because it took them time, and they’re willing to give Beane and McDermott time to reach the goal. They’re the big donors in the cult. When the GM says he needs new facilities to attract and train the kind of disciples who will win football games, the owners say yes. When McDermott says he needs another coach, they back him. And they’re good people, just like McDermott and Beane and Kyle and Jerry and Josh. It’s like they’re all from Mayberry. The NFL is a club, and the club members already are proud to have colleagues like Kim and Terry. Colleagues who can be counted on to have one eye on the bottom line and the other on their moral compass. Bills fans can be proud, too. There it is. Something approaching the perfect combination of ownership, leadership and players committed to a process that will work. We’ve waited a long time for this. It’s going to be special. Count me in the cult. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

Thanks. I had forgotten about QBASE. I never liked QBASE. Outsiders is good at what it set out to do: crunch the available raw data and film evaluations of whether any particular player did what he was supposed to do on any particular down and distance and come up with a ranking of how effective the player is in comparison to other players at the same position. They also do it for teams, offenses, defenses. In my opinion, it works. But it always was intended to be backward looking, not forward looking. They don't have any tools that have been demonstrated to project future performance, and that's what QBASE does. Schatz isn't a football guy; he succeeded by being a number cruncher. He's entitled to his opinion, but it's only an opinion, like everyone else's opinion. I suspect much of his opinion is driven by Allen's DYAR; if so, I think he's letting past performance become his determinant of potential, and that doesn't make sense for a rookie qb.

I find all of this interesting, but I think it misses the fundamental point. The fundamental point is that Allen's completion percentage has to go up. One deep or two, man or zone, first half or last half of the season, he wasn't completing enough of his passes. I have to think he's going to see a lot more cover 2 this year until he shows he can beat it by completing a lot of passes, which means a lot of short passes. Why cover 2? Two reasons: He has the arm to beat teams deep and has shown he can do it, so with Foster and Brown on the field often, defenses will want to avoid the problem of letting one of them go one on one deep. Also, cover 2 is more of a zone concept and it lets the defenders face the quarterback, which is necessary to try to stop Allen from killing them with scrambles. By taking away the deep ball, defenses will force the Bills to run effectively and complete short passes, neither of which they did very well last season. If Beane improved the offensive line, the run game should be revived. Where the real change is necessary is Allen has to find, and be willing to throw accurately to, his receivers in short, high-percentage routes and his backs out of the backfield. In other words, defenses will try to neutralize Allen's deep-ball abilities, and the Bills will have to demonstrate that they can go on the methodical, 10-15 play touchdown drive. When they start doing that consistently (which means when Allen starts completing 60+% of his passes), the defenses will be forced to go 1 high to stop the run and short passes, and that's when the full potential of the offense will come into play. Assuming the line will be okay this season, it's all on Allen playing like a pro QB instead of a college bomber.

Obviously anything can happen, like injuries, etc., but putting that aside, I think the Bills are definitely better than 6.5 wins. I believe this for three reasons. 1. In a sense all that matters is your Qb, and I think Allen is a star in the making. He has the physical tools, he has the leadership skills, he has the smarts and he really wants it. He will do everything he can every day to get better. I think by the middle of the season the national media will be all over him, and it won't be because of his running. I expect him to be a top 15 qb, minimum. 2. McD will always have a good defense. They were pretty good last season, and Edmunds didn't know what he was doing. Even if he isn't an all star, his improvement alone is going to make a big difference. If the optimists about Oliver around here are right, he and Edmunds are going to make the Bills a great defense. 3. I've come to understand the process. OT makes sense and it will work because Beane is getting only guys who are willing to commit to it. The Bills are going to get better every season for about the next five seasons. 2019 is the start. 2020 they will be really good. And by the way, I think the first four guys they drafted all will be significant contributors by the end of November.

The question was did they get worse? You say McCoy had his worst year ever, and you dont say you expect him to have an even worse year this year. So they're not worse thos year than they were last year so far as McCoy is concerned. Gore was better than Ivory last year (and every other year) and should be this year. And the Bills were bad at #3 running back last year, so Singleyary just has to be breathing to be equal to that. And Yeldon. You actually think that group is worse tha. Last year? Its absolutely clear on paper the Bills are not worse at running back than last year. It's impossible to answer the question on actuality until they play, so on paper is all we can talk about.

We've gotten weaker at negative poster. This board doesn't have depth at that position that we had a year ago. Free agency and the draft actually weakened us there.

It gets high marks for creative thread cross referencing and for raising an interesting question: where exactly would one go to bet on Jones not being on the roster? And, of course, what kind of odds could one get? And finally, how much would Alpha be willing to put down on it? By they way, I still think there is a good chance you're correct.

Instant nomination in the best-post-of-the-year category.

Well, I think OJ was one of the top 5 running backs of all time. It was privilege to to watch him and cheer for him. He deserved every honor and accolade he received. BUT - he doesn't deserve any more honors. If his number was not formally retired, then it should be used like any other number. His team is not going to honor him going forward, and his team should not show him the respect that goes with continuing to keep his number on the shelf.

There's just no way to know. Presumably they talked to the doctors and they said he was good to go. Presumably they talked to Kroft and he said all his work outs were fine. They kept Morse and others off the field, so it's not as though they aren't paying attention to injuries and recoveries. If we're going to criticize, the point many others have made is the one worth talking about: If you're looking for a free agent tight end, why are you signing one with a significant injury history, particularly foot injuries? Still, you make decisions as well as you can and move on. Some decisions work out, some don't. I hope Knox is a player.

Fine. You may not like how your team played last season. But to expect the Bills to be signing premium free agent talent is to be simply ignoring what the current GM has told us over and over. He's not building this team with free agents. His first attempt to make serious improvement at the position was to draft Knox. So far as I know, he's still healthy.

Anybody but Kelso. And Tasker just didn't have it.

Hello? Do you actually follow the Bills? What part of "build through the draft" don't you understand? Beane doesn't us free agents to build the team. He uses rookies. Whaley drafted poorly and signed occasional name free agents. How'd that work out? Kroft was intended to be the answer at TE. He was intended to be the guy who started until they got the young guy they wanted. It certainly doesn't help 2019 to lose him, but injuries happen.

Well before my time here. But her being remembered here says a lot about our community. RIP.

It depends on the guy's style. Highest has changed his style of play. He is effective by being a smart, consistently good player. He gets his sacks when the opportunity arises. He doesn't rely on superior physical skills to beat people. He plays the system and executes when ha has the opportunity. That style leads to longer careers.

I like this a lot. Hughes is not the flashy edge rusher we hoped he would be, the guy who makes highlight reels. He is better. I think this has happened because he is one of those guys who really fits what McD is trying to do. He has calmed down, doesn't take so many foolish penalries, doesn't lose gap control like he used to. Now he is consistently effective. Good, disciplined every play. Typical McD player. Maybe a little undersized but quick smart and effective. Like Poyer, Milano.

I love how fans come together on these things.

That's a fair point. What we can hope for is a serious advance in field generalship. More sustained drives, more success in the red zone. Not Peyton after five years, but Wentz or Goff after two - flashes of brilliance and occasional lapses. That's what I think we'll get. Not enough to get deep into the playoffs, but that should be the expectation in 2020.

I've been away from this thread for a while, came back and read this. I gotta say, it's one of the best looks at exactly how well/poorly Allen played. Allen got the Bills everything Allen could, he just wasn't good enough as you describe - not because he isn't good but because he has a lot to learn. A veteran QB would have gotten more out of the team. That's what Fitz is - every place he goes, he threatens more talented young guys because Fitz understands what to do all the time and does it to the best of his ability. Allen has some big steps to take. I've always been confident he'll take those steps, because his approach almost seems to be that he's a disciple, learning the ways of the master. When the Bills tell him to throw more of the short high percentage stuff, he's going to do it because, well, his approach is to follow the master. So he's going to do it - he has the physical skills to do it, and he has the learning capacity to do it. There's nothing to stop him. But that is truly easier said than done. So although I'm extremely confident we're looking at a star in the making, it's all just talk until he does it. Yes, he needs better line play and better receiver play, and there's reason to hope he'll get it this year, he still has to do what he has to do or it all adds up to nothing.

Shady you could have been Kinder but I have to agree with you. I think by the end of the season it was clear that the bills had the best quarterback in the draft.