Shaw66

That's not true. What appears in the first few posts in this thread is praise for what they did. Nowhere does it say that they did the only thing possible. The fact that someone may think there was another way to go and a better way to go does not have to be presented in what he chooses to write. What JW said is that they've done a good job, and I think that's true. Maybe they could have done it better, but that doesn't change the fact that they've done a good job.

I don't follow this. If people understood that the title didn't imply a guarantee, what's wrong with the title? He does believe Jones won't be on the roster. He isn't certain, but he believes it. I wrote a post the other day that said the Bills are entering a period of sustained NFL excellence, where they will be a regular playoff and Super Bowl contender. I believe it, but I'd be a fool if I thought it was the only possible outcome over the next 10-15 years, but that doesn't mean I can't write a post that says what I believe. I don't get it.

When you hear some huckster on the Internet tell you to call his 800 number and he'll give you his dead-nuts-lock-of-the-weekend pro football bet, do take that as a guarantee? If you do, send me your credit card number and I'll give you tomorrow night's baseball winners, guaranteed.

Wow. I haven't looked at this thread for a week or two and just clicked on it to see what's going on it. I have a few reactions: 1. One thing that kept me coming back to this thread is that Dawg didn't start it and run away. He's been here throughout, defending his position. Kudos. 2. A second thing that kept me coming back was that Dawg has been completely clear throughout what he's saying: He likes Zay, but he thinks it's more likely than not that Zay will not be on roster at Day 1 because of the competition. I still tend to agree with him. I think Williams, Foster and Beasley will play ahead of Jones, and once Jones slips to the number 4 spot on the depth chart, he's at risk. He isn't a special teamer and he doesn't have any special skills that make him look like a long-term answer. 3. The thread title is COMPLETELY clear. "I'm Calling It Now" is a common phrase around here and among sports fans, and it's meaning is completely clear: "I'm making a prediction." It's like "I'm calling it now: the Bills will win the Super Bowl" - it's a prediction Everyone should understand that a prediction is, fundamentally, a discussion of some future uncertainty. And Dawg has been clear about that throughout - he admits Zay could be on the roster; he just thinks it's more likely that he won't. The act of making a prediction does NOT mean that the predictor is saying the predicted event is certain to happen or that the opposite of the predicted event can't happen. Frankly, with Beasley down and with the free agent rookie kid down, Dawg's prediction isn't looking so good right now, but there's still a lot of football to be practiced between now and final cuts/trades.

That's well said. You are correct. It's more likely that McD will not be a Hall of Fame coach, at least strictly on probabilities. I've consistently said you're right about some things. Where I've said you're wrong is when you argue that McD can't be a great coach because there never will be another Belichick or because had more success in his first two years.

Much of what you say is Much of what you say about the future is true. Anything could happen. Some of what you say, again, is irrelevant. Sean McVay is irrelevant. Comparisons between McDermott and any one at this point in time have NOTHING to do with what I'm talking about. I predicted that the Bills are on their way to a great run, and whatever anyone thinks about anyone else is simply irrelevant. You could of course be right about McDermott's future, but what you describe is completely inconsistent with his history. This is a man who has succeed at every point in his coaching career. He wasn't the best assistant coach when he started, but he became one. He wasn't one of the best D coordinators when he started, but he became one. He was generally viewed around the league as one the very best young head coach prospects in the league. That's not a guy who consistently spikes the ball at the one yard line. And the single most important thing about the guy is that he is a learner, a student. That's who he is. So for you to predict that he's always going to screw up is simply inconsistent with who the guy is. He doesn't make the same mistakes over and over. He corrects his mistakes and improves. That's who he is. You say but new challenges come along. Yes they do, but this game isn't completely different every five years. The same fundamentals apply today as 50 years ago. What changes are details, which are small, not large. So sure, no one knows what the future will be. But the chances are that McDermott will continue to improve as a head coach, year after after, because that's who he is.

Yes, but the point is that there ALWAYS are flaws. There ALWAYS are mistakes. A continuous improvement process recognizes this reality and aggressively corrects process deficiencies so that those mistakes aren't repeated. There were all kinds of mistakes in 2018. And there will be more in 2019. In a well-run process, the big mistakes don't recur, and you're dealing with smaller and smaller mistakes.

Mistakes will be made in any endeavor. The question is whether they will learn and grow from it. Do you seriously think that three years from now Allen will be a lesser QB because of how QBs were handled last season? I don't.

Yeah, I read your post, and it misses the point for two different reasons. First, you assume, but you did not and cannot prove, that there never will be another team like the Patriots. There is absolutely no way to know that. The fact that Bill Belichick exists is proof that it's possible, and if it's possible for one, it's possible for others. There never was an Isaac Newton until Isaac Newton. There never was an Oscar Robertson until Oscar. There never was a Jim Brown until there was Jim Brown. But it was only a matter of time when an equally dominant man came along. Before Jim Brown, he was inconceivable. Was any ever again like him? Not exactly, but others were as dominant. So to say the Bills can't be like the Pats have been is flat out wrong. There is no reason why some other franchise can't come to dominate like the Pats. There is no reason why another coach can't become the GOAT. Second, that's irrelevant, because I never said the Bills would dominate like the Pats or that McDermott would coach like Belichick. I said the Bills are on their way to sustained, long-term success in the league. That's what the Brown-Browns had, that's what the Noll-Steelers had, that's what the Walsh-49ers had, that's what the Johnson-Cowboys could have had if their owner hadn't been such a jerk. Andy Reid has shown he produces sustained, long-term success. And the fact that the Rams and the Chiefs and the Eagles have currently had success and could continue doesn't have anything to do, with whether the Bills could have sustained long-term success. The Colts had it while the Pats did. The Steelers had it while the Pats had it, too. The Bills had it while the Cowboys had it. It doesn't have to be an exclusive achievement. Sustained long-term success has several key ingredients: good ownership, good coach, good GM, good quarterback. Growth and continuity. The Bills have all of that. Does it mean that they will have sustained long-term success? Not necessarily, but they can't have it without those things. They're poised to do great things.

I'm really confident the Bills are going to be great precisely because McDermott cares about all of this stuff. He is perpetually about getting better at everything. I don't think we have to worry that he's missing something. He isn't forgetting about tight-end play, he isn't forgetting about changing offenses, he isn't forgetting about game preparation. He isn't forgetting about anything. That's the whole point.

8 wins, 9 wins, it's about the same to me. And I agree that 10 or 11 are possible. I think 10 or 11 are more likely than 5 or 6. That is, I won't be terribly surprised if this team goes two or three over .500, but I will be quite surprised if they are 2 or 3 below.

I don't think everything is in place yet. I think they need another year of drafting young players. I think, for example, that there still will be weak links on the offensive line. The free agent signings, other than Morse, are not certified NFL starters. It's likely one or two will come through at least okay, but I think it's likely that this will be a power house offensive line. I still have my doubts about Dawkins, and Ford, his press notwithstanding, is still a rookie. I also think that Allen is far from a finished product. He needs years of seasoning. I expect him to be a top 15 passer this season, which would mean considerable improvement over his rookie year, but if your QB is top 15, you can expect your team to be around there, too. Finally, I think the coaches are still learning on the job. Daboll, the oline guy, the special teams guy all are youngsters. And McD is still learning the head coaching job. So when I add it all up, I conclude that this team is on the path to greatness, but I doubt they're getting there this year. 2020 is when I think they'll be a serious team, a top-10 team with playoff aspirations. And they'll get better after that.

Running out the clock.

Rocky - One of the reasons I think it's like a religion is that the viewpoint I expressed about continuous improvement leads to one conclusion: Don't worry, everything will be taken care of. McBeane's approach is "if there is a problem, we will solve it." That's what continuous improvement is. Solve the problem, adjust your system so it doesn't recur, and move on. A system like that eventually is solving smaller and smaller problems. My response to you is "if there is a problem, they will solve it." Yes, I agree the QB play in three acts that we watched last season was bewildering. But is it a continuing problem? No. So I don't worry about what happened last year. There are, I think three concerns about the QB drama. One was the fact that they badly misevaluated both Peterman and McCarron, so they went to camp with their star rookie and no one else who was a viable NFL QB. Second was that when they realized how thin they were at QB, Beane was really slow going out to the market for more help. Third was that McDermott badly misread what he was seeing from Peterman in practice, much so that he actually thought Peterman could succeed starting games. I don't worry about any of that because, in response to the first problem, they have their QB now and they just need to keep the team stocked with viable backups. Bills are a little weak there, but it wasn't a priority in this off-season. As for the second problem, Beane has admitted he was slow to deal with the backup problem last season. He was in only his second season as a FM, and like everyone else, he's learning. That was a mistake, and if the process has worked correctly, it was identified as a mistake and corrective action has been taken. That is, he should have learned from the mistake, reducing the likelihood that it will happen again. Most disturbing is the third problem. How could McDermott not have seen from Peterman in games not have shown up in practice? Again, he's a young coach with a lot to learn. I'm sure THAT thought process has been reviewed and McDermott has learned some lessons from it. Something else needs to be happening in practice to identify flaws that are likely to appear in games. What was particularly troubling about it was that McDermott made the mistake in his first season against the Chargers, and then he came back with Peterman again in his second season against the Ravens. Maybe in year two he was just trying to protect Allen. But if I had to guess, I'd say that McDermott allowed certain positive features about Peterman (his work ethic, his attitude, his competitiveness, his demeanor in practice) to underemphasize other things he should also have been seeing, thinks like lack of arm strength, poor response to pressure, lack of foot speed. If I'm right about that, McDermott has already adjusted how the Bills evaluate players in practice. Mistakes, misjudgments, etc., are always going to happen. The question is how you respond to them. A well designed process identifies the mistakes, takes corrective action, and internalizes the learning to minimize the chances that the mistakes will happen again. If McBeane hadn't made those mistakes, they wouldn't have had a chance to learn from them. And they would have made other mistakes instead. Continuous improvement. Coming soon to a playing field in Orchard Park.

Looks like INTs cost the Bills two games - Jets and Dolphins. Bills win those two and they don't get Oliver. My recollection was that Allen was better than your summary, in the sense that he didn't have a lot of INTs where I thought he was fooled by the defense and didn't understand what he was doing. That is, usually when Allen threw an INT, I thought "bad throw," not "bad decision." Reading your description, if you factor in down and distance, quarter, score, it seems like several were bad decisions in the sense that he should know not to take that risk. That's what Brady is so good at - he's always willing to wait for the next down or the next series. Getting zero and moving on is better than making a throw that has a 1/3 chance of being intercepted. And that goes along with, as others have said, the notion that Allen has to take the easy short throw more often. That's what Brady does, too; If it's okay to get zero and move on, it's even better to get five yards and move on. McDermott talks a lot about putting guys in position to make plays. In the discussion of sacks in the Chris Simms thread, I mentioned that McD said about Hughes that getting pressures is more important to the Bills than getting sacks. I realized that McD says that because a pressure gives at least two guys a chance to make a play - the guy who created the pressure can get a sack or a fumble, and a defensive back can get a play on the ball. Plus, of course, another rusher may get the sack or fumble. McD said at the end of last season that they want Allen to throw more short balls, and it's for the same reason. The short ball gives another player a chance to make a play. It's all part of McDermott's team concept. Big plays are nice, but he isn't relying on big plays to win games - he's relying on guys making the ordinary plays they SHOULD make and trusting others on the team to make the ordinary plays THEY should make.

McD made it sound like the Bill's keep those stats, and the pressure stat is more important to them.

That's right. McD was very interesting on the subject. It sounds like they track and rely on QB pressures. He likes sacks, but pressures is what he wants. The more pressures, the more opportunities for other guys to make plays.

Mr. Vader Thanks for your kind comments. I appreciate them. Your response gives me a chance to say more about what I'm thinking. I don't think you've raised anything that is an impediment to greatness. I will say, for example, that I never have believed that the City of Buffalo is an impediment to recruiting top talent. I get that it's far from glamorous, it's cold, and there are New York State taxes to deal with. I get that. But listen to McDermott. He and Beane are building a roster full of players who don't care about any of that. Boston is cold, taxes are high, and unless you're ultra-liberal or spending 60 hours a week in the library at Harvard or MIT is your idea of a great time, Boston isn't your town. Green Bay gets its share of players. Pittsburgh. McBeane are building a team that players will want to be a part of. A team that wins (that's the most important part), a team where players are respected, a team with great owners. If a player doesn't want to play for the Bills, or wants a premium to move to Buffalo, he isn't the kind of player McBeane wants. Plus, to move on to the draft and free agency, Beane isn't looking for the top talent in free agency. He fills holes in free agency; he gets his talent in the draft. He IS doing what the Pats do in free agency - he's collecting solid players with the right competitive instincts - like Hogan. The only top talent that the Pats regularly go after in free agency is shut-down corner. Beane is certainly not stupid. When the roster is put together the way they want it, which I think means after this season or definitely after next season, Beane's going to be smart about the occasional big ticket free agent. But remember, that isn't generally their plan. When the Bills write a big check for a free agent, in most cases it's going to be for THEIR OWN free agent. Their objective is draft talent and keep it, not get it in free agency. The fans aren't perfect, but they're great. What makes Buffalo stand out is that it seems that a higher percentage of the population is serious fans than almost anyplace else. The whole city is engaged with the team, even over all these years of mediocrity and worse. They CARE about the team, and it's obvious to the players. They all comment on it, including players who don't play for the Bills. The fans are an asset that McBeane obviously are selling to players. McDermott wants his players to understand that it's a PRIVILEGE to play for fans like they have. Most cities have fair-weather fans or worse. Not Buffalo. But the linchpin of my optimistic view is the continuous improvement philosophy. I am not by any means an expert in the philosophy, but I get the core elements. McDermott has explained it several times. The fundamental requirement for a successful continuous improvement environment is to have the organization populated with people who are committed to it. That's why McBeane say that they don't care about a player's physical gifts if he isn't an intense competitor and isn't committed to working at getting better every day. The core operating idea is to evaluate, set objectives, work to meet the objectives, evaluate, set objectives, etc. - forever. Always looking to get better. You do that by internalizing whatever vest practices you develop along the way. So, for example, someone commented about McDermott's success on challenges. It hasn't been good. I am certain that in the team's evaluation of him they have identified challenges as something to improve. And they don't just talk about it - they analyze how they make decisions, they study how others do it, they develop procedures to follow, they implement the procedures, and they see if their challenges improve. Your comments about the draft and free agency point to the same thing. McDermott looks at his team, sees that there's something missing in terms of talent, chemistry, whatever, and he tells Beane. McD, Beane and their coaches and scouts look at the system and figure out why they aren't filling that kind of need and what they need to do to fill it. I expect their draft philosophy and techniques will continue to improve, because they will examine the philosophy and technique all the time and improve it. I've said elsewhere that they are doing what Belichick does. They are. They aren't exactly copying him - it's clear that McDermott's commitment to family, to personal connection with his players is something that isn't such an important part of the Belichick model - but they're generally doing the same things. One of the strengths of the Patriots is that they've used the same core offense and core defense for 20 years. It doesn't change. It's based on fundamental football principles and not on gimmicks or fads. By building that way, the Patriots can tweak it from year to year and now from game to game without rewriting the playbook. It's easiest to see on defense, and McDermott's defense has the same characteristic. Out of the Bills basic 4-3, with personnel who fit the defense, McDermott can do whatever he wants. He can rush three, he can rush six or seven. He can commit safeties all over the field. The benefit of this aspect of what the Pats do and the Bills are building is that continuous improvement becomes possible. What the defense did in 2008 to respond to trends in the league becomes part of the playbook and part of the DNA of the defense - the players in 2010 know it, not because they're playing the way it was played in 2008, but it's part of the system. The players in 2012 are better at playing the defense than the players in 2008 because they've learned the 2008 wrinkles AND the 2010 wrinkles. The players teach each other, and the team keeps getting better. The Bills want to build through the draft because they can pull their rookies up to their level and build from their. Jerry and Star are going to teach Oliver a lot this summer, and the Bills are going to expect him to absorb a lot of it. If they've done their homework on Oliver correctly, he will thrive on the opportunity to learn and get better. A couple years ago I heard someone describe how Brady and his OC were preparing for particular opponent, and one of them said "when they're in that defense, what would work would be that play we put in for the Jets about ten years ago. The next day, they show the play to the offense - an offense based on all the same principles as 2008, and - VOILA! - they had the answer on how to attack this week's opponent. Continuous improvement and continuity made that possible. And continuity comes from drafting and keeping players, and constantly teaching the younger players what the veterans know. Sorry, long-winded answer, even for me, but that's what I see happening. Does Beane get free agency completely right? No, but every year he gets better. Does he get the draft right? No, but every year he gets better. Does McD get every coaching decision right? No, but every year he gets better. A continuous improvement environment makes things better and better. Toyota proved it. AND - the Bills now have a physically gifted QB with brains who is completely, totally on board with this system. He's working daily to pile knowledge on top of knowledge in his brain. He really wants it, he wants to do it right, and he believes he's being led in the right direction. And he doesn't seem to have an ego that's going to get in the way. He knows he has to be the man, but being the man isn't his personal objective. What he wants to do is win, and if winning comes from handing the ball off 45 times, he's gonna do it. Continuous improvement is going to put the Bills on top.

What is it that you see in the present organization that you think would keep them from becoming a great franchise? Me. Wilson wasn't a great owner. Rex wasn't ever going to be a great coach. Fitzpatrick never was going to be a star QB. Whaley wasn't a Hall of Fame GM. I don't see any weak links now. McD isn't a great coach yet, but he has time to grow. He's had some success already, and he is determined. Beane and Allen look like winners, and the Pegulas have impressed me. What do see that makes you think this combination is unlikely to become historically great? What franchises do you think are better set up for an impressive decade?

Of course, I've just predicted that the Bills will reach the absolute pinnacle. I suppose it's fair to call it overoptimistic. Nevertheless, that's where I think we're headed.

I could argue with various points here, but it's generally correct. I'm not saying anything different. I'm not saying Allen is going to be a miracle worker. I'm not saying the line will be all-star or TE will became a strength rather than a weakness. What I'm saying is this team is getting better and will continue to get better, year after year. And I think it's quite simple: right owners, right GM, right coach, right QB. The rest is just blocking and tackling to improve the level of play, year to year, and to improve the level of talent. And talent doesn't mean superstars - it means very good football players committed to the process. That's the plan, and I believe it will work as they planned. I think Allen will be a top 15 QB this season and top 5 within three seasons.

Thanks for clarifying. I've gotten to the point where I don't worry about weaknesses. Are the Bills weak at tight end? With the injury, sure. Do I mind? No. Can't fix everything in a day, and the Bills will keep working at it and fix it. Might they have gone a different direction in free agency and/or the draft regarding tight end? Sure. Do I mind? No. They'll get to it. Their objective is for EVERY position to improve EVERY year, and they aren't going to forget about the tight end. That's why I say they could be better or worse than I expect in the next year or two, but however long it takes they will get better from year to year. In five years they'll have a top 5 quarterback and a top 5 defense. Why am I so sure? For the reasons I gave - the right owners, the right GM, the right coach, the right quarterback. They're all going to grow in their jobs, because that's the objective they've set for themselves. Everything about the franchise is getting better. Someone commented about the quality of the video on BuffaloBIlls.com getting better. Relations with the media are better. Facilities are better. Food services for the team are better. Most importantly, as someone mentioned, team culture is better. They're building an environment where players will want to be a part of. They keep talking about what a privilege it is to play for this fan base. They talk about family. They talk about excellence. They talk about winning the right way. This is going to be a perennial Super Bowl contender, like the Saints and the Chiefs and the Pats. Only the Pats get there year after year, but virtually every year since the hurricane New Orleans has been talked about as a contender. Why? Ownership, coach, quarterback, fan base. And I don't think anyone is leaving. The Pegulas are in for the long haul. They'll pay Beane whatever it takes to keep him, and they'll pay McDermott too. And Beane will pay Allen whatever it takes to keep him. Because of the culture they're building, I think they ALL will stay for less than they might be able to demand, because they all will understand that that isn't consistent with the process - they want the entire team to get better continuously, and part of that is having money to spend on other players. That's why Brady takes only what he takes. They all will see that even at reduced pay, they all will retire as very rich men, richer than they ever need. Allen will get paid more than Beane and McDermott, but Beane and McDermott will make millions a year for 20 years. (Think about it: Allen knows today that five years from now he's getting $30 million a year, and he'll be able to do that for 10 years. After taxes and a VERY comfortable lifestyle, he'll have $100 million saved. McDermott knows that he's going to be making $10 million a year for 20 years; Beane something similar. They are all going to know that they are part of the best franchise, with best record and with the best owners; they aren't going to care about squeezing the last dollar out of contract negotiations.) Believe it. It's all sitting there before our eyes, right now.

One of the greats, in every way. Every man wanted his son to be like Bart Starr. A winner and a gentleman. Our thoughts are with you and all Packer fans.

Thanks, but your post completely 9gnores what I said. The NFL is not set up for dynasty runs. The Patriots prove up wromg, and Andy Reid is evidence that it's possible for others to do it. He hasn't gotten over the too, but his teams are almost always good. McDermott learned from Reid. 1. When Belichick was McDermott's age, no one was saying B I ll is the greatest coach of all time. They were running him out of Cleveland. 2. As I said, I think Allen will be great. And as I said, he and McD are a perfect match. Of course today they don't look like they can compete with Brady and Belichick. Give 'em ten years. 3. Patriots beat EVERYONE. They have a BETTER RECORD against the rest of the league than they have against the AFC east. They would be spotted 6 wins in almost any division. 4. Allen may very well be willing to be paid below the market. You don't know that yet. And the Patriots would still win if they paid Brady $30 million. All you've said is that the Bills today are not the Patriots. I didn't say they were. I said they are building to geeatness, and you gave no reason why they can't. The whole point of the process is to identify areas of weakness and improve them. It applies to McDermott too. His on field performance is evaluated like everything else, and a process is put in place to improve it if necessary. If you ask McDermott, he will tell you he will be a much better head coach, in all aspects of his job, five yeare from now, because he intends to study, evaluate and improve all aspects.

Illness. Yes. Wonderful. Yes.