Shaw66

I agree. That's one reason they've switched the QB reads, so that they look short first. I think Allen is being told in the right defense, coming right out of the snap, go to Beasley. The short ball, and how his safety valve guys are being covered, will be his first reads.

People say this sort of thing often, and i think it's incorrect. I mean, I agree that if you watch game film and chart throws, you may find that short, accurate throws with touch were not the strongest part of his game. But I think that's easily correctable and will be corrected this season. I think it's all about reads, discipline and comfort. Something you also will see watching the film is that Allen MADE a lot of short, accurate throws with touch. Physically, he can do it. He did it a lot last year. He just didn't do it as often as he should. He didn't do it as often as he should because he was rushed. He came to the short receiver late and had to unload the ball in a hurry, resulting in some bad throws. He just wasn't ready to throw. Sometimes it was because he was rushed by the defense, and sometimes it was because he's an aggressive player and wants the big play. I think that's going to change. Why will it change? Well first, this is something I believe but don't really know is true or McD's philosophy: I think Belichick and other coaches have figured out that it's more important to have positive plays than big plays. I think they teach their QBs to take the high percentage positive play, even if a decent longer play may be available but lower percentage. I think the mantra is "no negative plays. Make every play positive." I think that they've figured out that a ball you can complete 90% of the time for 6 yards is better than one you can complete 50% of the time for 15 yards. As I said, I don't know that, but I think it's true. It's a conservative approach based on ball control and field position. I think that philosophy is at the core of Brady's decision making. And I think McDermott is a conservative coach. So I think McDermott has been telling Allen for seven months "take the short ball. We will win if you take the short ball." I think it's no accident that they signed Beasley. They wanted a guy with a track record as a great route runner, a guy who will get open if they're in the right play against the right defense. I think the Bills are telling Allen if they're in that play against that defense, Beasley will be open, throw it to him. Don't think about it, just throw it to him. They're telling him to take the deep ball only when the guy is one on one and has a speed or leverage advantage. A couple of months ago there was a report that Daboll had changed the QB's read structure. I think it used to be outside in, or deep to short. In any case, this year the QBs are reading short routes to long. Why did they do that? I think that at the beginning of each play they want Allen to recognize which short receivers will be open before he takes a look downfield, so that when he decides to come back to the short guy he'll already know who he's going to. I think that will help Allen's footwork, because he'll come off the deep routes already turning to where the short guy is. Once he practices it in OTAs and training camp, he will see the guy is always open, he'll get comfortable with it, and he'll make the throw the way he should. I also think Allen will just be more comfortable than he was last season. He's had a year to get used to the speed and to understand what he's seeing on the field, and he's now getting a lot of reps and film work. I mean, for a rookie he didn't look uncomfortable last season; he didn't get flustered often. But the comments from the coaches and from him made it clear that he wasn't always seeing everything he should. That's true for all young QBs, and the solution is reps and playing time. He got a lot of the playing time last season, and now he's getting the reps. I think we'll see a guy who's much more in command this season (and one who runs with the ball less frequently). I think all of that will combine to mean that Allen will throw the ball short more often and more effectively. Beasley, Shady and Gore are going to be his security blankets, and with any luck a tight end safety valve will emerge, too. I understand there are all kinds of reasons it may not happen, but I'm expecting that Allen's completion percentage is going to go way up this year, into the low 60s. I think his yards per attempt won't go down, because he'll still make all his mid-range and deep throws, but what were occasional incompletions on short balls are going to become completions. I think the Bills will sustain drives much better as a result, because that short game is a ball-control game, and I think the Bills will begin to stretch defenses to cover the deep ball and the short ball. Once that happens, the mid-range middle is going to open up, and Allen is deadly on those throws - he drills the ball into tight windows on those throws, and the windows are going to get bigger. All of that will flow from two things: 1. Allen is not a fundamentally bad thrower on short balls; he just needs to be a better decision maker. 2. Allen is coachable, and he will respond to what he's being told.

Of course, if Foster and Jones are both WORSE than Brown, that's a bad problem to have. Seriously bad, because it means the Bills have exactly one wide out. The problem the Bills have at receiver is mediocrity. They need players to emerge as real go-to guys. People expected that of Brown, but it hasn't happened after a stellar rookie year. Some people expected that of Jones, but he did very little in his second season, when he should have been breaking out. (Yes, he had a nice play here and there, but EVERY guy good enough to be on an NFL roster will make a nice play here and there. Look at McKenzie.) Foster hasn't done it yet. Williams is unknown. Sills is a rookie. The Bills need guys to step up. My prediction is that the Bills will end the season, if not start the season, with their top four receivers being Beasley, Brown, Foster and Williams. Why? Beasley is an excellent short- to mid-range guy, and the Bills are telling Allen to throw more of those passes. He is the anchor for the receiving corps. Brown, Foster and Williams are the three most talented receivers after Beasley. Brown and Foster have the speed that allows them to get open short or long. Williams was a four- or five-star recruit who needed time to get his head together, and his experience in Canada suggests he's done it. Jones doesn't have the speed that Foster and Brown have and doesn't have the all-round talent, including hands and physicality, that Williams has. But as I said, the problem the Bills have is that they all could remain mediocre. If that happens, improved oline or not, Allen will be running for his life again this season.

Thanks for the thoughtful response. It's interesting. First, I think we're coming into year two, not year three. Although McD got a few players in his first year, last year was really the first season where he had a lot of his players on the roster. This year will be the second. I've always said that 2020 was the year he as to have serious results in the win column. But I'll repeat what I've been saying for months now. Their objective is to build something that generates sustained success for a long time, like ten years. That's what they're trying to do. They have Allen and Edmunds and they think those two can be the core for ten years of success like the Patriots. That's what they're trying to achieve. They know they can afford to keep those two (everyone can afford a franchise QB), and they're trying to build a system that's sustainable like New England has. If they can do that it doesn't really matter of the success comes in 2019, 2020 or 2021, because 10 years of success is worth waiting for. I don't really care, and they don't either, if you think it must be done in three years because you don't see any examples longer than three years in recent history. Only one team has built success like the Pats, but that doesn't mean that the only way to do it is the way the Pats did it. The Steelers, the 49ers, the Cowboys each have a unique success story. When the Bills do it, their story will be unique, too. Recent history simply isn't relevant.

Like I said, I can't be bothered to play in your world. You go ahead and knock yourself out.

Congratulations on your continuing definitions of reality. In your world, there are absolute rules; anyone who violates your rules fails. Your world is interesting, I'll give you that. I can't be bothered with it.

I tend to think like this, until I remember that plenty of other teams are improving too. Ten wins is tough. It's tough. The Bills have to actually be good to win ten. It's possible and I would love it. I don't expect it.

If Allen and McD are going to win for 10 years, and I think they can, I can wait another year to get there.

Belichick Brady never would have become Brady without Belichick.

Got ya. I don't drink Belichick proves anything either. I just think that McBeane have the same philosophy. Dedication, hard work, study, do your job, limit mistakes, block and tackle.

Yeah, I sort of liked Marrone. But if he had a plan, it wasn't clear what it was. And I agree, he and Whaley werent working together. I suspect that's one reason Marrone bolted. McBeane have a plan, they're working together, and I can understand what they're trying to do. I like all of that. He also inheriTed a team that had gone 38-26 over the previous four-years and then lost a lot of games. There are different ways to succeed. Every story is different. McBeane are writing their story. They aren't finished yet.

Says the man conveniently forgetting four years in Cleveland.

I don't agree about talent. Nobody out-talents the other teams for very long. I discussed accuracy above. I dont think accuracy is a serious problem with Allen. This year will answer the question, because he will throw a lot of short balls. We will see. It's true I'm a Billiever, but I understand the process can fail for any number of reasons. I don't see a lot of point in arguing that the Bills should be doing something else. It's obvious what the approach is McBeane are following, and it's a slow-build approach. Beyond that, however, I actually do believe it's a good approach. At least there's a plan. Whaley and Marrone and Rex all seemed to be winging it.

It wasn't their first season together. Their first season together they were 5-11 and Brady didn't play. Beyond that, I think Belichick is a genius, and I'm not saying g McD can replicate Belly's success. What I'm saying is that he is replicating the team building approach, which is why I expect success to come a little more slowly.

I am not worried about Allen's accuracy. I think the concerns are part myth (from his college career and all the draft commentary), part based on on the fact that he didn't throw short much last season, and part based on his being rushed on short throws because he was sometimes late deciding to take the short pass. What I think we will see is that Allen has been told since the end of last season that the offense plays better if he takes the short pass. So I think he won't be late coming to the short guy and will therefore be more focused on throwing an accurate ball. I dont believe his actual mechanics are a problem; I think if there's been a problem it's being late and being rushed. I think as the result of this change, his completion percentage will go up to the low or mid-60s. People will say he got more accurate, but it actually will be because he will make quite Kerry and better decisions. Yes, they had won it all the year before, but my point was that the system hadn't been institutionalized yet. They weren't yet able to have sustained year after year success. It took a few more years for that. And it took a few more years for Brady to become the GOAT. That's when it all came together.

I agree about this, but it really describes both the upside and downside of Zay Jones - he can be good in many areas but not elite in anything. That's fine, and McBeane want a lot of guys just like that on the team. BUT it also means that Zay is expendable, because plenty of guys can be good in many areas but not elite. They're a dime a dozen. So, for example (and this is something I said in Alphadawg's thread about Zay not being on the team when the season opens), someone like Robert Foster could emerge was a guy who does lots of things well, like reading defenses, settling in zones, run nice out patterns, etc. He's had a year's experience, maybe he's done good off-season work. If Foster becomes a guy who is good at many areas, he's way more valuable than Zay because he's also elite at SOMETHING, in this case, speed. Beasley is good at many things, but he's also been elite as a possession receiver. If Brown can bring more to the table than Zay, again because of his speed, suddenly Zay is only your number four receiver. Now he has to compete with Duke Williams, who has more talent, and with Sills, who may have more future, and with McKenzie, and with Roberts, who can return kicks. If Zay can't win a starting spot, he could be in trouble. And if he can't win a starting spot, that's a good thing, because it means the talent has been upgraded.

But all you're saying, both in this post and talking about Brady, is that McBeane are correct in their approach. They have implemented a process intended to build long-term success, and that process will take multiple years. Of course, the Bills won't do in 2019 what the Patriots can do in 2019. But even the 2002 Patriots couldn't do what the 2019 Patriots can do, either. It took time to build the machine the Patriots have, a machine that now has an endless stream of interchangeable parts, a machine that works so long as Belichick and Brady are there. Tom Brady wasn't always the GOAT. He BECAME the GOAT, by living and working in Belichick's process. So to say the 2019 Bills won't be the 2018 Patriots is a no-brainer. Of course not. No one knows that better than McDermott. What McBeane are trying to do is make the 2024 Bills the 2018 Patriots. It's a process, it takes time. The Bills need to have a few more established players who are the core. And Allen needs to become an accomplished NFL field general, which takes years. It took Brady years, it took Manning years.

I think this is correct. I think athletes' comfort zone comes from being prepared. And it isn't just athletics. I've done some public speaking over the years, and it's clear that study and practice and technique all are important, but the real key is that when you put it all together, when you've developed some skills AND you're really prepared, you get up there and you're thinking "I've got this." You can see the Patriots improving through the season, and you can see the players able to make plays in tight games, late in the season. They aren't big plays - they're ordinary plays. Just deflect the pass, just make the catch. And then every once in a while you'll see Edelman make a miracle catch, and all it is is determination and focus. Then they get to the playoffs and it all steps up. No one looks out of place, no one is flustered. I think McDermott is completely focused on this concept. I think that's what he's teaching. He's trying to load his team with fast, good athletes who will work all day, every day just to make the play they're supposed to make. Not the great play, not the extraordinary play, just the play they're supposed to make. If they make the tackle, great, but if they're making the play they're supposed to make sometimes it just means that some teammate makes the play HE's supposed to make and makes the tackle. He teaching a total team concept. He's teaching people that if you make the play on punt coverage that allows your teammate to make the tackle, your defensive teammates can keep the other guys off the scoreboard. I've seen this concept working in McD's defense from his first season. You see it most easily in the safeties. Hyde and Poyer have been in a comfort zone almost since they arrived. They know where they're supposed to be and they go there. They just do it. The result is that someone makes a play, maybe them, maybe someone else. I think that's the difference we see in Hughes's play, too. When McD arrived, the game stopped being about Jerry and started being about the defense. And I see the same thing when I watch Belichick's defense. Other than the shut down corner, it's hard to see anyone out there who looks great - they all just look like when the play comes to them, they make it. They all know they can make the ordinary play, they're in a comfort zone about it. And when 11 guys are making the ordinary play, every time - going where they're supposed to go, taking on the block, filling a zone, whatever - when they all do it every time, the collective effort is great. And, to you're point, to you have that, you have to learn to move your comfort zone from the practice field to the games, from the games to the post-season and into the Super Bowl. You can be ready, and the moment's not too big for you. But, to use an oft-repeated word around here, it's a process. You have to experience the comfort zone on the practice field first, and then you have to learn to get into that zone in games. You make some mistakes along the way, because you lose focus when the bright lights are on, but once you regain the focus, the comfort zone returns. Then you get to the playoffs and you have to learn to stay in the comfort zone. The beauty of what Belichick and Brady have done is that they've built a nucleus that has learned this and internalized it, so that, as you say, the comfort zone is limitless. A new player comes to the team, and they pull him into this process that is churning away. IF the player doesn't conform to that mentality, he gets spit out and another guy is plugged in. Some guys are naturals, like Hogan. There simply was no question in my mind that Hogan would succeed in New England. He's the prototype for Belichick - really good athlete, determination, work ethic, doesn't care who gets the credit. It's pretty obvious that that's what McD is trying to do. When McBeane talk about the kind of guys they're looking for, it's the Hogans, the Milanos. That's why, although people pooh-pooh it, some of us get excited about a guy like David Sills. Will Sills make it? I have no idea. But I do know that he is the prototype, just like Hogan. He's going to do his job, every day, he's going to do it with focus and determination. When he gets his chance to play, he's going to be ready and he's going to be in his comfort zone, because that's how he's always done things. He's going to run the route, make the block, fill the zone, whatever, and when the play comes his way, he'll make it, because he's ready to make it. And that's why I'm so optimistic about the Bills. It's why I wrote a month ago that we're looking at the beginning of the next great NFL team that will have sustained success. Why? Because McDermott has spent his life studying how this works, and he keeps studying. He won't quit - he has the focus and determination of a wrestler. He has the ability to get the attention of players and have them follow him. You could see it in how a great team player like Kyle Williams took to him immediately. And, McD has a QB who fits perfectly. Allen wants to be better and better. He studies, he works he practices. He's smart. You can see him growing into HIS comfort zone. He has the same kind of intangibles Brady has, down to the chip on his shoulder, having been dissed by so many people from high school through college and the draft. And, by the way, he's much better physically than Brady. Better arm, better mobility, better ability to move in the pocket. I think we're looking at, potentially, the next Chuck Noll and Terry Bradshaw, potentially the next Jimmy Johnson and Troy Aikman, yes, potentially even the next Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Will McD succeed? Just like Sills, I don't know. It's one thing to see what works, it's another thing to execute it, day after day, to keep your team together and willing to win as a team without having to take credit for it personally. McBeane preach it to each other and to everyone else, but preaching it and getting the whole team into that comfort zone are two different things. Will Beane be satisfied to stay and build, or will he get lured away to a bigger challenge? Can McDermott build a staff that manages the Xs and Os at a high level? Will the team survive the loss of the occasional talented player who isn't willing to take a few million less to remain part of a winning machine? Time will tell.

This is absolutely true. It's like a perfect storm. I have always believed, and continue to believe, that Brady wouldn't have nearly as good any place else, and Belichick would have been good but not THIS good without Brady. As you say, Brady's an OC on the field. He has Belchick's work ethic, but more importantly he has a brain that somehow is in sync with Belichick's. Belichick's genius is that he gets everyone else on the team, coaches and players, into the same mindset - do your job, do it right, do it every time. Then he got a QB who learned to do that at the QB position and lead all the other offensive players to do it. It's really quite amazing.

Exactly. They all block, they all tackle. They're rarely out of position. It's the way football is supposed to be played. Fundamentals executed with consistent excellence.

Yeah, for three or four seasons I predicted the end was near for them. Then about three years ago, I stopped. It became obvious that the usual rules don't apply to them.

I think Belichick is a genius. Most of the coaches in the league are incredible hard worker, but they don't win like the Patriots. One characteristic that shows how much different the Patriots are from everyone else is how their offense morphs from style to style from week to week, depending on how they want to attack the opponent. No one else does that. That's technical brilliance coupled with hard work. When the Patriots beat you with a 250-yard rushing game, and Brady goes 13-24 for 126 yards, that's Belichick, not Brady. They do it to someone every season - last season it was the Bills.

Of course you may be right, but you aren't responding to the point. The point is that the Patriots are a much better team in the second half of the season than the first. The Patriots we all think of as unbeatable are the second half of the season Patriots. In the fourth week of the season, you will have two mediocre NFL teams playing each other, and the Bills will be at home. That's why I think the Bills have a good shot at winning the game. Why are the Patriots so much better in the second half of the season? Two reasons: First, the Patriots get better every week, by design. Belichick keeps taeching them more and more, and more variety, so that by the second half of the season they can come at you in a variety of ways. They can be a running team, a passing team, a burn the clock team, whatever they want. In the first half of the season they are more limited. Second, by the second half of the season, most other teams have become set in their ways, and by studying film of the previous three or four weeks Belichick has a very good idea of what the opponent is going to do. In the first half of the season, teams haven't settled into a particular style yet, and they are tougher to prepare for. Early in the season is the time to play them

I think the Bills will be a lot better this season, and I expect them to beat the Patriots once this season. It's a real benefit to get them at home early in the season. The pats always improve a lot when as the season progresses; every year they look beatable and actually lose a few in the first six weeks. Still, I don't see the Bills being much better than 9-7. Sure, they've gotten better, but the league improves every year, and winning isn't going to be easy.

Me too. But the other part of me thinks they will have 10 wins by Thanksgiving night and really start rolling after that.