Shaw66

The Pats have one of the best secondaries in the league for 10 years, even though the personnel keeps turning over. They don't have a bunch of Pro Bowl players back there, other than Gilmore. What they do is find, train and keep good athletes in a very disciplined system. I don't think the Bills are too far from being there. The Bills secondary plays a pretty sophisticated game based on communication, knowledge and understanding. I'm afraid the Bills are a little short of talent to make much of a splash in January, but I agree with you that it's possible. As always, Allen is the real key. If Allen stsarts stringing together 100+ passer rating games, the Bills could be a tough out.

The Bills put away the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, 37-20, sweeping the season series and taking another step toward the playoffs. Several big steps remain ahead of them. Wins over the 2019 Dolphins, of course, are not the measure of a playoff caliber team. The Dolphins don’t score many points and they give up a lot (second last in the league in both categories). In fact, most of the games the Bills have played this season have been against teams in the bottom half of the league in both points scored and points allowed, and that’s one reason why the Bills have for weeks been number 3 in the league in both categories. But as many people keep saying, all you can do is play the games on your schedule. It’s a one-game-at-a-time league: prepare for this week’s opponent, win, and move on. The game wasn’t as close as the first go-round with the Dolphins in Buffalo. The Bills took the lead early and never gave it up, scoring in every quarter. It was one of the most consistently effective offensive performances of the season for the Bills. Particularly satisfying was that the Bills shook off their usual third-quarter stumbling. The Dolphins opened the quarter with the ball, trailing by 9. The Bills stopped them on six plays, and then the Bills went on their own nine-play TD drive to widen the lead. The Bills coasted to the victory from there. The TV announcers made a big deal out of the fact that the defensive stop was aided by a questionable holding call against the Dolphins, but they ignored the fact that the Bills actually had just forced a three-and-out but for an even more questionable spot on third down. The game is best seen as another step in a process, a multi-year process to build a consistent winner. There was plenty of room for improvement. The Bills’ first two offensive drives, and three of their first four, stalled. The Bills settled for field goals, leaving the score much closer early in the game than it should have been. When the Dolphins scored to make it 16-7, the Bills compounded their early inability to find the end zone by being totally surprised by the Dolphins’ onside kick. The Bills were saved from that gaffe when the Dolphins turned the ball over on an unforced fumble, and the Bills took control again with another touchdown to go up 23-7. That comfortable lead was short-lived, as the Bills immediately coughed up a 101-yard kickoff return. The first-half problems on special teams demonstrated, again, that the Bills are not fundamentally sound in all aspects of the game. A fundamentally sound team is prepared for everything, and the Bills were unprepared for both the onside kick and the kickoff return. Every week the Bills make some big mistakes, and every week Sean McDermott says they have some mistakes to clean up. The process is supposed to correct the problems and assure that the mistakes don’t recur. All teams, including fundamentally sound teams, get beat on one play or another occasionally, but it doesn’t happen week after week to the best teams. It seems to happen week after week to McDermott’s Bills, and that is one of his on-going coaching challenges. There were other issues with the Bills on Sunday, but there were a lot more positives than negatives. 1. Josh Allen once again showed the kind of quarterback he can be, even if he isn’t yet that quarterback as consistently as he needs to be. Sunday he took another step in the process. He threw the ball effectively, including no really bad decisions, and he stung the Dolphins with a 36-yard option run. Most impressive, perhaps, was his control of the team on the field. Allen was in charge throughout, running the huddle efficiently, directing and redirecting teammates to the proper position in the formations. He understood what he was looking at and he executed against it. His command on the field was noticeably different from a week ago in Cleveland. Does it mean he’s now a master field general? No. Miami’s defense isn’t Cleveland’s, let alone New England’s. But it means he’s learning and he has the ability to do what the job demands. It was an excellent outing for him. The best quick measure of how a quarterback is doing is the passer rating; the best quarterbacks usually have the best passer ratings. Last season, Allen’s passer rating was below EJ Manuel’s rookie year. I said coming into this season (as I said about Manuel as he entered his second season) that Allen needs to make a comfortable improvement in his passer rating, to get someplace around 15th to 20th in the league, and then he needs to improve beyond that. Manuel improved, but not enough. Ten games into the season, Allen’s almost doing it. His rating is 85.4, ten points higher than last season and 23rd in the league. 85 used to get QBs into the top 20, but as the passing game around the NFL continues to improve, 90 seems to be the new 85, so Allen still has a way to go. Allen had only two games over 100 in his rookie season; he’s already had four this season, once again demonstrating that he can be the effective QB the Bills have been looking for. Whether he can stay at, let alone improve on, 85 is an open question, as he faces winter weather and some tough opponents in the coming weeks. 2. John Brown isn’t the best receiver in the league, but his game is sweet to watch. He runs so effortlessly, with speed and quickness. He’s sure handed. He fights for the ball and to break up potential interceptions. It was nice to see him have the kind of day he had against the Dolphins. 3. It was nice, too, to see the Bills return to attacking over the middle in the passing game. Allen throws those short and intermediate balls over the middle really well, and Brown, Beasley and Knox all are good at the crossing patterns attacking that space. 4. Edmunds seems to be becoming the special play maker that made him a first-round pick. Edmunds and Milano together are becoming a formidable tandem. Edmunds reads and attacks, especially in the passing game. His break up of the pass to Gesicki on 4th and 16 was spectacular, running with the tight end down field and then finding and making a play on the ball. He’s a serious problem for quarterbacks in the middle of the defense. 5. Singletary. Nothing much to say, except nice job, don’t fumble. 6. Ryan Fitzpatrick had another solid outing, but the Bills wouldn’t let him find the end zone. Talk about in control on the field; Fitzpatrick lets nothing bother him. He seems to understand everything that’s going on out there. Fitz’s body just can’t quite deliver what his brain can see. He must look at Allen’s arm and running ability and just wonder what he could have accomplished with that kind of physical talent. 7. My wife insists that watching games at the Harp in Boston is better than watching live at New Era Field. I won’t go that far, but the Bills Backers in Boston throw a great party at the Harp. The place was packed and raucous, as it almost always is. The beer was flowing, the food was good, and we all had a good time singing the shout song, over and over. Great afternoon. 8. The Bills defense is good, but all you needed to see to understand how much room they have to improve was to watch the Patriots throttle the Eagles, the same team that ran the Bills out of the stadium a few weeks ago. The Pats pass defense looks like they have 14 guys playing back there. Receivers rarely seem to get open, and when they do, they are tackled immediately. The Pats defense is unspectacular, in the sense that they don’t have a Watt or a Mack or a Clowney, but it is so fundamentally sound, so full of guys who just execute, that it is stifling That’s McDermott’s goal, but the Bills aren’t there yet. 9. One thing the Patriots do, and it’s something we saw more of from the Bills against the Dolphins, is blitz. The Patriots don’t get great pressure from their front four, and the Bills don’t either. The Patriots aren’t afraid to send an extra rusher, and they benefit a lot from doing that. They benefit in two ways: (1) they get better pressure and (2) they create a lot of uncertainty for the QB and the O line, because they know the Pats may very well send an extra rusher or two, but they don’t know who’s coming. We saw the effectiveness of that approach by the Bills yesterday. The Bills kept Fitzpatrick off balance with an array of blitzes, coming at different times from different rushers. They didn’t always get home, but they created enough uncertainty and enough pressure to force the ball out quickly. I expect the Bills will stick with this approach, especially because Milano and Edmunds have the talent to cover a lot of ground in the defensive backfield when the Bills send an extra rusher. There are some tough games down the road, but it’s one game at a time. The Broncos will be a test, even though they are another team in the bottom half of the league in scoring. Their defense is stingy, and to win the Bills will need a quality performance from Allen. He’s still young and has a lot to learn, but it would be great to see him deliver a quality win when the Bills need it. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

Oh, yeah. It's happening. I wrote about it in May. In 3 years Josh Allen will be one of the premier QBs in the league. I completely disagree. I saw a QB who can make all the throws who is learning to play against all the defenses the league can throw at him. Game by game he learns.

No, the whole point of the post was even if Tyrod=Josh, the Bills are paying a lot less for Josh than they would have paid Tyrod.

We love to talk about those guys here, but the question is whether any of this talk actually causes people to go read Sullivan or listen to Schopp. For me, the answer to both questions is "no." I don't go to them because they simply are not good at what they do. They don't inform me, either with information or with insights, so I don't bother.

And, of course, I believe that if Belichick had started training camp in place of McD, the Bills also would be 9-0 right now.

Fun question. It deserves it's own thread. I'd definitely take Belichick and Allen. Belichick is the greatest coach of all time, and Allen has more than enough talent for Belichick to make him a winner. Plus, I'd get the benefit of Belichick coaching the other 52 guys. McDermott is trying to be like Belichick, and I think he will have success over time. He'll never be Belichick, but that's like saying Werner von Braun will never be Einstein. And I think McDermott would have success with this team more quickly if he had Russell Wilson today. If he had Russell Wilson to start this season, the Bills could very well be 9-0 right now. But I can't have Belichick and I can't have Wilson, so I have to write about McDermott and Allen. I like them both. As I said, I think McDermott will have success as a head coach, because of his approach. And I think Allen will, too. They're both just climbing their respective learning curves.

I agree. As I said to Gunner, I think a lot of these questions reflect bad reporting. "Are you frustrated with the success of your offense?" Come on, you actually need a quote from McDermott about that. I think a fair question is "you say player X needs to improve. Can you give us an example of the kind of thing you do to get improvement? And don't just say ' we have to continue to work.'" Ask him tell us what kind of things coaches are doing, what are they looking at on film, what are they talking to the players about? McDermott, for his part, needs to be a little more forthcoming about things. He needs to give the press something, and all of this "continue to work, continue to improve" stuff only goes so far. At some point he has to say something. He needs to prepare for the press conferences with some nuggets that he can give the press so that have something write about. If need be, he should talk to, say, Josh in advance and tell him that McD is going to use him as an example about something, so that Josh knows it's coming and knows that however the press spins it, it isn't intended as showing a lack of confidence in Josh. True. The processing part takes years to master.

He said it several times last season. I don't recall his saying it this season, but it would have big news if he dumbed down the playbook this season. They did say once or twice that they were trying to simplify the reads on certain plays, but that sounded more like the reads were too difficult for the QB generally, not that they were simplifying for Allen.

I don't mind if he's a provocateur in what he writes. I mind when his objective when interviewing is to set up his interviewee, to trap him into saying something that will make it easy for Jerry to go after him. If he actually wants to write a column about Josh being no better than Tyrod, he can write the column. It's his opinion, and he can say it and try to defend it he wants. But he knows, knows for a certainty, that a legitimate column on the subject would come out concluding that Tyrod wasn't improving and Josh is, Josh is younger, Josh has a bigger arm, etc. etc. etc. He KNOWS that. He asked the question to see whether McD would say something that Jerry could attack. That's just lazy journalism.

Well, whether it's the right approach or not, the approach that McD has always taken - and he's been very frank about it - is that every player is asked to play the position as it's drawn up in the offense, not some watered down version because the guy is just learning. That's the approach. So you get McVeigh taking a different route with Goff, talking him through every play on the headset to make up for what Goff can't see on his own. There was discussion on this board a couple weeks ago about whether that approach actually stunted his growth. I don't know what the right answer is, but I know the approach the Bills are taking with Allen is "this is the position, the entire position. Play it." The result is that he's going to make mistakes that a veteran QB won't. You can argue that McD costs the Bills some wins by doing this, because Allen makes mistakes. But if you dumb down the position so he can play mistake-free, you also make it easier for the opponent to defend against the offense, because the offense becomes much more predictable. I don't know if there's a correct answer. I like what McDermott is doing, but I get that others might not.

But Gunner, Jerry's idea of an interesting story is to throw someone under the bus, so he asks these loaded questions. How about any of these questions: When you're reviewing with Josh his play against the Browns, what do you tell him about: 1. Staying in the pocket? 2. Recognizing the blitz packages? 3. Anticipating breaks and making quicker throws? 4. Game preparation? McDermott is wise to Sully's bs and declines to answer questions designed to trap him. I Sully would ask questions like the ones I just listed, he and we might learn some football and might learn what's going on with Allen. THAT would make an interesting story.

It's a very interesting question for people like us to discuss. It's a totally unfair question for Sullivan to ask. Sullivan is a smart guy. He knew exactly what McD would say if McD handled the question well. He asked the question because if McD didn't handle it well, he could go after Allen or McD or both. In other words, he asked the question to set up McDermott to make a mistake. McDermott, being the gentleman he is, answered respectfully. Belichick would have blown him off. Two years from now Sully will be complaining that he's one of only a few guys covering the Bills who hasn't had a quality one-on-one sit down with McD. He'll blame it on McD not wanting to answer the tough questions. The truth will be that McD already knows who Sully is and what he's up to, and he isn't going to reward Sully with interviews or anything else.

I'd say this is a bit too harsh, but generally right. A proficient NFL QB would have won that game for the Bills. Josh isn't yet proficient. One thing about Cover 1's analysis is that although he shows what didn't work for Josh on several plays, he doesn't explain what Josh SHOULD have done to make it a positive play. And on some, like the pass down the right sideline late in the game to Brown, Brown essentially says that Josh made the right read and the right throw but he, Brown, didn't anticipate the throw early enough to look for it and make the catch. I agree about the first 20 games being freebies. It's the next 20 that matter. We shouldn't be surprised that Josh had trouble when presented with blitz looks on 50% or more of the plays. That's where all young QBs have trouble - the blitz look gives them more information to process in a short period of time and raises the level of emotional pressure the QB might feel. It seems like Josh made the right play a lot of times when faced with the blitz, so I don't think it's a problem with what he understands. It's a problem of raising the success rate of the entire team on the execution. Josh has to be better more often, but Brown has to make the catch on the back shoulder throw and, as Cover 1 pointed out, Knox has to make his catch along the left sideline. If at the end of next season Josh still plays like he did Sunday, there's reason for concern. At this point in his second season, I'm not all that troubled. I'd like to see a little more out of him consistently, but he's doing okay.

I just read the article. Seems fair enough, for an amateur. I will always repeat what Kyle Williams said when he was told people are reviewing the All-22 and grading him. He essentially said it's ridiculous. He asked how someone who doesn't know what his assignment was can evaluate how he performed. So when Buscaglia goes after Trent Murphy, I just remember what Kyle said. Everyone was going after Lotulelei a week or two ago, until the team and coaches finally came to his defense said he's doing exactly what he was brought in to do. It's nice that Joe B is grading every player, but the only grades that matter are the ones that the Bills coaches are giving to players. I'd like the link to that website. I think that comment applies to every position, but a little less so to the skill position players, because we can see what they're doing. So, for example, I think what he says about Allen is pretty good. He's critical of several aspects of Allen's play, but it's clear that Buscaglia isn't saying Allen is a failure - he's just saying that Allen needs to improve or he will fail. I think that's true. And I agree with Joe B that Allen is showing that he can do all of the things that he needs to do - he's shown that he can throw with anticipation, he's shown that he can manage the pocket, he's shown that he can scramble and throw on the run, he's shown it all. But he's also showing that he can't do it consistently yet, and that's what's missing. He's making the right decisions some of the time, he's making decisions quickly some of the time, he's making quality throws some of the time. He needs to do all of that more consistently.

Guys like Jackson and Mahomes come to the league with a special skill set that allows them to have success early, if their coaches can figure out how to take advantage of the skill set. Over a few years, the league catches up with them, learns how to contain them, more or less. Guys like Mike Vick and Cam Newton come to mind. Their special skills made them successful early (not necessarily immediately in the win column), but the league figured out how to deal with them. Their field generalship never developed. They never became expert at reading defenses and running the offense. The people we think of as truly successful QBs all developed very high levels of field generalship - Peyton, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Wilson. Lamar Jackson has all the scrambling ability of Wilson, probably more, but we will have to wait a few years to see if he can consistently package those skills with the high football IQ that makes Wilson so successful. I like the Wonderlic as an indicator, but it doesn't determine whether a guy has all that he needs. Successful QBs usually have a relatively high Wonderlic, but plenty of guys with high Wonderlics don't make it and some guys with low Wonderlics do.

I did over 35. Seems like he wins every game with exactly 35 attempts. As for causation, no one can anything with simple analysis. It's complicated. But I gave a logical explanation about why balance works best. I proposed a theory. And your data is consistent with the theory, so that's something.

I just eye-balled Brady's first few years. Looks like he was around .500 when he threw over 35. Which means his winning percentage was better when he threw 35 or under.

I don't find this too surprising. I think most fans are selective listeners. They are overly impressed by - and remember - when Rodgers or Wilson or Mahomes has some monster game, like 32 for 42, 410 yards and 4 TDs, but they forget all the times when the broadcasters tell us that Ryan was 33 for 48 for 380 yards in a losing effort. Most of the games, as your analysis makes clear, that QBs are throwing the ball a lot, the QB is trying to come from behind. He may be posting big numbers, but he's posting them chasing the lead. Granted, it's become more of a passing league, but even so, if you pass too much, your offense becomes predictable and easier to stop. There's always been a very simple formula: If your opponent can run and can't pass, you put 8 in the box and stop the run. That's what Seattle did last night. If your opponent can pass but can't run, you rush 3 and drop 8 into a zone. You may give up yardage in the middle of the field, but your opponent will struggle in the red zone, and you'll get the occasional coverage sack. The offensive theory that has the best sustained success (and it's the theory that McDermott often talks about) is forcing the defense to defend the entire field. Eight in the box only defends the line of scrimmage, because the defense knows it doesn't have to defend downfield. Rush 3 drop 8 defends downfield and disregards the LOS. Only by having an offense that can attack everywhere, vertically and horizontally, can you force the defense to defend the entire field. That spreads out the defense and creates gaps you can attack. Even better, if you can run effectively, you get the benefit of play action, which creates momentary gaps you can attack. People misinterpret HOW the NFL has become a passing league. It's not so much that teams are passing MORE. It's that teams are MORE EFFECTIVE passing. In the 50s, the measure of a good QB was if he could complete 50% of his passes. Now a good QB is completing 65%. - 14 QBS are over 65% this season, and 3 are over 70% The announcers always tell you when a QB is on a run - he has 8 or 10 or 12 completions in a row. That never happened in earlier eras. When you complete a higher percentage of passes, your yards per attempt go up. As has become clear, if you can get 8 yards per attempt passing and 4 yards per rush, passing becomes very attractive. But the REASON you can get 8 yards per attempt is because you force the defense to respect the run, which gives you one on one matchups and allows you to create openings with play action. Once you stop running, the defense can play more zone and can ignore the play action, completions go down, and yards per attempt go down. And that's what happens to most QBs chasing a lead in the second half. They pass more, the defense sits on the pass, yards per attempt go down, and the QB loses. That's exactly why the people here who are complaining about the run-pass ratio against the Browns are right. As we saw with Allen, when pass attempts go up, completion percentage generally goes down, and once that happens yards per attempt drop and drives stall. You have to be able to run. Either the Bills can't because the line still isn't good enough, or they won't, which is bad coaching. I think it's the line. We need to remember that the Bills couldn't run at all last season, except for the fact that Allen was on the move so much. This year the Bills are prudently limiting Allen's rushing attempts, and they're having trouble getting consistent yardage on the ground. We all got excited about the free agent acquisitions and Ford, but other than Morse, none of the newcomers had had any great success in the NFL. I'm always using Belichick as an example, because he does so much right. His philosophy is that his teams will be able to do everything. They'll run inside, run outside, play a possession passing game and play a deep passing game. A reporter asked him once what style he prefers to play. Belichick looked at the guy like he was idiot, paused, and said "we like to play the style that wins the game we're playing." The lesson for Daboll and Allen is simple: If the Browns are going to blitz a lot, you have to have the plays to counter the blitz and have to make the reads and make the plays. Some of those plays are going to be running plays that attack the gaps the blitzing linebackers have abandoned. Allen has to check into those plays, and he has to execute them.

I agree, all around. I had the same reaction last night. Not so much about Metcalf, because his hands were suspect coming out of college and he had a couple of balls he didn't handle last night. Williams catches all of those. But Gordon did prove the point. The two passes he caught were well covered, and his speed wasn't what made those plays work - his body and his hands were. As I said in the OP, when the Bills threw incomplete to Brown on 4th and 4, you could see it. Brown doesn't have the body to keep defenders from reaching around him and deflecting passes. Williams does, and Williams has hands and fights for the ball, all the things you need on those possession throws. Sunday, Roberts didn't look like a receiver to me. He doesn't get two hands up regularly, and doesn't attack the ball as it arrives. Foster doesn't impress, either. When Brown was a rookie, he was immediately a deep threat AND good on those crossing routes that he runs and completes with the Bills; Foster's in his second season and still hasn't shown much. He'd be my target. Yes, maybe Roberts could run the jet sweep and make McKenzie superfluous, but McKenzie is also the backup kick returner. I don't really know. What I do know is that I think the Bills would be better with a big, sure-handed pass catcher. One other thing, though, is maybe Williams has other issues that are keeping him off the roster. His lack of speed makes him less valuable, for sure, on special teams. That's actually a good point. This receiving corps demands the best possible play from Allen - Cooper would make life easier for him. Still, who wouldn't want a Cooper?

You're right about this. Singletary is probably good enough for DCs to be worried, but only if he's part of a group of skill position players. He's not a feature back to carry the offense alone. And as much as Brown and Beasley are definitely upgrades over a season ago, they aren't elite. They, too, need something special around them. I'm a Duke Williams fan, but he isn't special, either. It was easy to see the other night watching Amari Cooper. I'm not a big Dak Prescott fan - he's good but not special, I think - but Cooper sure made him look special. Having that guy who is going really deliver for you, three or four or five times a game, makes a big difference. He skews the defense. You could see it in the Browns game. The Browns put Chubb and Hunt on the field together, and when Hunt went in motion everyone in the stadium paid attention. You just HAVE to account for him or he'll hurt. The Bills don't have a Cooper or a Hunt or a ___________ (fill in the blank with one of about 20 names). As I in the OP, put Chubb or Hunt or Landry or Beckham on the Bills and the offense looks different in a hurry. Beane has some work to do. But, and I know you agree, if this team is going to be a tough out week after week and through the playoffs, Allen has to continue to develop. QB is the most important position on the field, by far, and practically no amount of talent at the other positions can't overcome mediocre play or worse from the QB. I'm not concerned. I think Allen will be great. He's just going through the learning process.

I'm the one who says the game is mostly about coaching, and I am absolutely sure there were coaching mistakes on Sunday. But I think there point about no margin for error is that if your offensive line is mediocre and your QB is young and your skill position players are average, it means the coaches have no margin for error. They have to be perfect to get good play out of that collection of offensive players. I don't know enough about the game to know what exactly the coaches could have done better, but I'm sure there are things. And I really like the McDermott system, because the system critiques the coaches regularly, figures out where the coaches are falling down and corrects it. The Bills are designed to learn from every game and to improve. Whatever the coaches should have done in the Browns game is becoming part of what they DO do this week.

No, I don't think it's the offense. I think it's Allen. He's young and inexperienced. He doesn't know yet how to read all the defenses, to get the team into the right plays, and to make the right decisions. The Pats, of course, are the ultimate example. Yes, you can argue they have elite offensive game planning, but if you have mediocre players at a lot of positions, game planning only takes you so far. In the final analysis, on the field you need a QB who understands what's going on and executes, a QB like Brady. Allen isn't there yet. It takes years to learn and master all the concepts and to make the split second decisions that are necessary. I think Allen has the talent. We already see how calm he is in the huddle and at the line of scrimmage. We see that he has good pocket presence and awareness. And we see that, WHEN HE SEES WHAT"S GOING ON, he executes very nicely. He has all the skills. He just has to keep learning the game. He was 22 for 41 on Sunday not because the offense sucks - he was 22 for 41 because he didn't see a half dozen opportunities to change the play or throw to a better option. A half dozen opportunities is half dozen completions at 10 yards per completion, which is a 300-yard passing day and probably the difference between a win and a loss. When you're throwing to Jarvis Landry as your number two wideout, it isn't so difficult - the guy is going to get open a lot. But Allen isn't throwing to Beckham and Landry; he's throwing to two guys a notch below. So he has to be better technically - Mayfield can get away with not understanding because he has those receivers. Allen's still learning. He works hard at his job. I think he'll be fine. But it takes time. And a top notch receiver wouldn't hurt.

I'm not sure who in this thread was complaining. Seems like a pretty rational discussion among people who generally agree with what you're saying.

Other people are saying run Singletary more. Allen threw 41 times on Sunday. How much more do you want him to throw?