Shaw66

I think you'll see you're wrong. McDermott is all about winning. He is going to do everything that will make the team a consistent winner, including on the offense. Next year's offense will have better talent, a more mature QB, and it will be more aggressive. I'm kind of with you here. Defense is great, and I love defensive games, but the no punt game was incredible. Cleveland 6-3 was also incredible, but very difficult to watch.

Nice job, Virgil. A lot of interesting comments that we can get only from someone being there. I was there a few years ago. That video they play to start the fourth quarter, I guess they call it renegade, is great. I loved it when I was there. The point I was most interested in was DiMarco. I've been talking about Allen a lot lately, about how he's just learning. That DiMarco play is a good example. Three years from now, Allen will see DiMarco (even if he didn't on Sunday) and have the courage to throw it, despite what he's being told about protecting the ball and following the script. Give him time.

No strategy works all the time. It didn't work in Cleveland. I keep saying the same thing here, over and over. McDermott and Beane have a long-term plan, and they're sticking to it. Their primary objective is not to win this year, it's to build a team that can have sustained long-term success. Part of that success will come from building in a way that supports sustained long-term success. So, for example, someone asked the other day whether Beane regrets not getting more free agent talent this year. I said no, I doubt he does, because going all in on talent to win this year isn't in the plan. The plan is to build talent you can teach and keep. I think McDermott would tell you that taking unnecessary risks to win a game this year isn't consistent with his long term plan. Putting his QB in a situation where, given his current development, he could blow the game, isn't consistent with building a winner. I think he'd tell you that Allen needs to keep learning, and as he does he will be more trustworthy in late-game situations. Does McDermott want to be more aggressive offensively in those situations? I think he wants the option to be more aggressive, for sure. But he knows what his QB does well and does not so well right now, and his defense is simply more reliable. Now, if my defense sucked, sure, I'd say let's take out best shot, meaning maybe our big QB with the big arm will make a play for us. That might work, but it might also blow up. In a situation like the Bills are in, where your defense is giving up very few points and where it increasingly is showing the mental and physical toughness to get stops when they really need it, relying on the defense is a higher probability play AND it's consistent with the long-term growth of the team. When Drew Brees was in his second season, the Chargers let him throw the ball 40 times a game and they finished 8-8. Why? Because they were 27th in the league in yards defense and 30th in the league in scoring defense, so they weren't going to rely on their defense to win games and they let the kid sling it. The Bills are in the top of the league in defense and, like the Chargers in 2002, have a gifted but inexperienced QB and a mediocre offense - with that combination it's foolish to ask your offense to win games rather than your defense. When Allen has the experience and savvy that Brees has, it will be a different story, but we tend to forget that players like Brees weren't always as good as they are now. After his third full season starting, the Chargers drafted Eli Manning and acquired Rivers, and Brees was gone a year later. He was NOT a guy the Chargers wanted to rely on to win games.

I don't agree with this and I don't think McDermott agrees with this, either. To take the end of the game yesterday, there are two ways you can win - by scoring again to put the game out of reach, or by keeping them from scoring. Just because you might like to score again doesn't mean that's the best choice. The best choice is the one that has the highest probability of succeeding. When your QB is young and still pretty inexperienced, when he's completing only 50% of his passes and when he's shown a tendency to throw into coverage when he should throw it away, he isn't a great choice to rely on. Then, you have to compare it to your defense, which isn't giving up many points. So, I get that it makes you uncomfortable that the games are close at the end, but I think taking the ball out of Allen's hands late in the game is more likely to secure the win.

I agree with you on how he ran the team. But he didn't throw well enough to get an A. He had some ugly throws.

I don't think Beane's kicking himself, and I don't think he and McDermott are surprised. They believe in the process, and it's way too early to have sold out of the process to buy talent for a championship run this season. I suppose if you'd asked them they would have told you that Allen was a year or two away, so spending for talent for 2019 would have been a waste. Just my guess. As for surprised about the success, I doubt it. They have a lot of confidence in what they're doing. If you'd told them Brown and Singletary and the oline will work out about how they'd planned, and they had no serious injuries, they probably would have said 10-11 wins was a real possibility. It just seems so obvious that they're doing it the right way, it's surprising other teams haven't built this way. I suppose some of it is McD's personality, and you just can't copy his combination of sincerity, determination, hard work and values.

I agree. I generally don't have a problem with McD's conservative moves. McDermott believes in winning the fourth quarter to win the game, and he coaches to keep the game close. He expects his team to win the fourth quarter, and they've been doing it. But I'm guessing that in three years, when Allen is a top 10 QB, McDermott will trust him not to screw up and might very well turn him loose in the exact same situation.

He was very good. But he WAS uniformed. He talked Micah Hyde is if he just joined the team.

December football is different. It’s intense. There’s an urgency about it that’s missing from the games earlier in the NFL season. It happens every season. Fifteen or twenty teams are competing for a spot in the playoffs, or for home field advantage. Many of the teams that have been eliminated share the intensity because they don’t want to be embarrassed, they want to make a point, they want to build a resume for free agency, they want to close out a career with positives, something. Everyone feels it. The fans talk about playing meaningful games in December. They want their team to be one of the fifteen or twenty looking to the playoffs. It’s December football, and the Buffalo Bills have arrived. The Bills arrived in Pittsburgh with a 9-4 record and persistent doubts about whether they are playoff material. The doubts were well earned, because, over the past 20 years the Bills had occasionally knocked at the front door of December football. On rare occasions, they were admitted, only to be quickly booted out the back door and sent home. This year, the Bills’ weak schedule and inconsistent offense fueled the doubts. Even though the Bills had led the AFC Wild Card race for weeks, few people believed in them. They didn’t believe even after the Bills played the Ravens essentially even the week before because, well, because the Bills didn’t win, and December football is about winning. Winning requires execution at a high level, hitting harder, making the critical plays, playing through challenges. It requires heart, courage, and excellence. The Bills are all of that. The Bills beat the Steelers 17-10 in Pittsburgh on Sunday night. A December Sunday night. They clinched a playoff spot by beating a team that has made a habit of winning December football games for decades. They beat a team that needed a win to climb even with the Bills in the race for the playoffs. They beat the Steelers with the Steelers fans making noise and waving those yellow towels and all of that. It’s December football, and the Bills have arrived. The Bills defense took over the game early and never let go. The Steelers had a touchdown drive of 69 yards, one other drive of 58 yards. The rest of the game they gained a total of 102 yards. The Bills took the Steelers out of their running game and forced Devlin Hodges to throw. Throwing against Buffalo is a losing proposition. Opponents attempt passes against the Bills around the league average – about 34 per game, and the Bills have the second best passer rating of all NFL defenses. Hodges attempted 38 and couldn’t figure out the Bills. As the pressure grew for the Steelers to get back into the game, he took more chances and turned the ball over. The Bills were in almost total control. A couple of things stood out in the Bills defensive effort. First was the defensive line. They were tough against the run, pretty much the entire night. The gaping holes, the big cut-back lanes that they had allowed earlier in the season are gone. Running against that line and those linebackers is a chore. And the front four was getting consistent pressure on Hodges without the blitz. The pocket kept closing in on him, increasing the pressure and forcing him to run and throw on the run, neither of which he does particularly well. Then, when the Bills blitzed, Hodges was in trouble right from the snap. Second was the preparation for the game. If Hodges completed a pass, in rhythm and on time, there always was a tackler, and often two or three tacklers, arriving as the receiver tried to tack on yards after catch. There were more or less no yard after catch, particularly on multiple third down plays where the Steelers completed a pass short of the line to gain. The Bills defense knew what to expect and knew how to respond. It was impressive. Sean McDermott’s conservative approach to football, or at least what many fans believe to be a conservative approach, was on display in all its glory against the Steelers. When Allen threw his interception late in the first half and was bailed out by the defense’s own take-away, McDermott had seen enough and ran out the clock. In the second half, after White’s interception and 49-yard return with the Bills down 10-7, McDermott put the Bills offense into a shell – if they could get a first down rushing, fine; if they could get a touchdown rushing, fine; otherwise, they were taking the field goal and tying the score. The way his defense was playing, McDermott knew that getting points on the interception was much more important than getting the lead. A few minutes later, with the score tied and after the defense stopped the Steelers on three plays, McDermott let Allen come out throwing, and Allen responded, first hitting Brown deep down the left sideline and then delivering a perfect pass to Kroft for the touchdown. I expect that when Daboll was giving Allen the play call for the TD, he told Allen that if there was any chance of a pick, throw the ball over Kroft’s head and take the field goal. Allen saw Kroft break free to the sideline and made a professional throw. That was it for to McDermott. One more score would have put the game out of reach, but McDermott was content to run the ball and leave the game in the hands of the defense. The defense didn’t disappoint. McDermott’s approach isn’t so much conservative as it is smart. It’s December football, and December football is about winning. Having said that, McDermott’s conservative, game-winning approach can be nerve-wracking. The final minutes of the Steelers game were anything but comfortable; taking a knee while a couple of minutes run off the clock is a much more civilized way to end a game. A really well prepared team wouldn’t give the Steelers a free timeout with a needless penalty; leaving the Steelers with more than a minute and half, instead of less than a minute, put the game at risk one more time. McDermott’s approach is driven by where Allen is in his development as an NFL quarterback. Allen is a cannon, and I don’t mean just his arm – he has the throwing, running and leadership ability to blow up defenses. How do we know that? He is tied with Russell Wilson for the league lead this season with the most game-winning drives (5) and most comeback wins (4). But he’s young and learning, so he’s a loose cannon. McDermott has seen his cannon blow up in his face (like against the Patriots) instead of blowing up the defense. So what does McDermott do? He doesn’t risk things blowing up in his face unless he has too. He plays for the win, not for the highlights. McDermott lets Allen practice managing the game, practice making the throws he needs to make without putting the team at risk. Allen gets to practice in the first half. As soon as the Bills get the lead in the second half, practice time is over and McDermott is playing to win the game. Winning the game means don’t give your young quarterback a chance to blow up. As Allen develops into a more reliable weapon, I think we’ll see McDermott open up and go for the jugular. We saw some of the loose cannon on Sunday night. Allen made three or four poor throws on plays that should have been easy completions. One of those resulted in an interception. The decision making on the INT was fine, the throw was college-accurate when it needed to be pro-accurate. We know Allen can make all of the throws, because we’ve seen it. He needs the professional discipline to do it every time. Until Allen shows that discipline, with a second-half lead McDermott will take the ball out of his hands. Chris Collinsworth analyzed Allen’s footwork on one play, talked about Allen’s base being too wide and whatever. I don’t know if he was right about all that, but he made a more important point, which is that Allen needs to recognize and understand what’s going on more quickly. The extra time is what Allen needs to make the throw right, because he has the arm strength and throwing ability to make throws from all sorts of positions. Recognition and understanding is where Allen needs work. The 2019 season isn’t over, and there could be a lot more to cheer about, but 2019 already is a success for the Bills. With this collection of players, 10-4 (even if it were to turn into 10-6) is a success, having clinched the playoffs is a success. (I’ll admit it: I clicked on the standings more than once the day after the game, just to see the small letter next to the Bills’ name, the letter that means the Bills have clinched something. Haven’t seen a small letter in a long time.) More importantly, 2019 is a success for McDermott’s process. He has done what he planned to do, he’s gotten the results he expected he would get, and the process continues. He doesn’t yet have all the talent he needs, and he and his coaches and players haven’t yet grown all the way into his system. As Collinsworth said during the game, we’re looking at the base on which McDermott is going to build his team, not at the finished product. It’s all what McDermott told us when he arrived, and it’s all happening. Welcome to December football. Welcome to the playoffs. Welcome to the new era. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

I have to admit, when I've gotten into discussions like this one you're in, I sometimes have taken your position. Data that isn't statistically significant isn't helpful if you're trying to prove something conclusively. However, I've mellowed some, or tried to get out of those intense conversations. I think that in general give and take conversations about a player or team, interesting comparisons can still be interesting without necessarily trying to prove the point. Especially, in this case, where you guys are talking about a young QB who clearly isn't a finished product, professionally, who hasn't had a particularly good collection of deep receivers and very little continuity with the receivers he has had, who's played a lot of games in the wind this season, I don't think any reasonable conclusions can be drawn about Allen's ability to throw the deep ball. For me, the question is whether I'm happy with where Allen is in this point of his career, looking at the whole picture. I'm very happy. If what we've been seeing week to week is all that we're going to get from Allen, he will have failed. I think we're going to see a lot more.

I believe he will be great. He's growing into it.

I agree with what you say about those games but it doesn't mean Daboll has to go. I think Daboll is just like Allen - he is a guy growing into the job. It's just as easy to look at those games and conclude that Allen has to go. Nobody is saying that. Just like Allen, Daboll is going to get better at his job. Its disappointing that he isnt better right now, bu we just have to wait.

As someone said, the process isn't linear. EVERYONE grows in spurts, regresses, etc. Last season the offense was 30th in yards and 30th in points. This season they're 20th in yards and 20th in points. I don't think there's any reason to assume that the oline got better, the receivers got better, the running backs got better, the QB got better, the tight ends got better but the OC didn't improve. It's much more likely that the Bills are better in all phases on offense because everyone got better, including Daboll and McDermott. And they will be better next season they were this season. People learn from experience, which means they learn from mistakes. Daboll and McDermott are making mistakes every week - no doubt. The beauty of McDermott's process is that it fosters continuous learning and improving. There is no reason to believe that Daboll isn't improving. Look at it this way. If the conclusion is that Daboll isn't doing the job well enough and isn't improving, you fire him. Who do you hire? Some other OC who hasn't had success as an OC. Why hasn't he had success? Either because he's never been an OC before, or he has been an OC and failed. Why failed? Because if he'd been successful, he'd still be an OC or he'd be an HC. So you hire a new OC who hasn't had success. That means he also hasn't learned the things that Daboll hasn't learned. How does that leave you any better off? It certainly doesn't bring you closer to success. That's the point about continuity. If you have a culture that helps people grow and learn, continuity is critical to success, because the benefits of learning are cumulative. The only people who don't learn in a culture like McDermott's are the people who aren't motivated, aren't internally driven. But McDermott won't hire anyone, player or coach, who isn't driven like that, so I assume Daboll is driven. If he's driven, he'll learn. Frankly, I've been thinking the same thing about people who are writing off Cody Ford or saying he should move to guard. Ford is going to be better next season than he's been this season. The process will make him better. Until they've reached their prime, players get better. Ford hasn't reached his prime. No rookie has.

Nihil and Gilmore - When I say Daboll will learn, I mean over years, not from week to week. Andy Reid wasn't the same coach 20 years ago as he is today. Learning is cumulative. What McDermott is building is an environment where learning and growth is more or less mandatory, and it's more or less assured. And it's an environment when learning is insitutionalized, so when someone leaves, the learning remains. McDermott started from near zero three years ago. We've seen the results, and I'd say those results are good to nearly spectacular. The learning will continue. And the talent accumulation will continue. I agree with those who argue that Daboll is making mistakes. McDermott would say "let the process work." I can wait.

That's a discouraging thought, but I have to admit it's occurred to me. However, for the long term, I'm more optimistic about Daboll. Unless he leaves for a head coaching job, I think he will get better. I keep saying this, but it's true. McDermott runs a continuous improvement operation, and everyone in the organization is learning, all the time. Daboll's game plan for the Ravens, and his adjustments, are evaluated and Daboll is pushed to learn from the experience and be better next game and next season. It's that continuity and continuous learning that generates excellence. That's the environment that Belichick has built - McDaniel and Brady are always improving, they're always getting better, smarter, etc. McDermott and Daboll still have a lot to learn. Having said that, I have to say that your analysis of the play selection early in the game seems to be right on the money. As I look back, given how well Singletary ran early - not great, but with decent production, it's surprising that we didn't see more of him. And, as someone else said earlier in the thread, the wind dictated that the passing game should feature short, quick throws. Yes, Ravens knew that, too, but the answer is not to go into the game trying to fool them by throwing deep. The answer is to install wrinkles in the short passing game that will get guys open. Daboll will learn.

I didn't realize Simms was so inarticulate. He's stumbling all over himself. Still, his explanation of the long-TD is interesting and understandable. Also, he's really clear that Baltimore had no respect for the Bills' receivers. And he loves the Bills D.

You miss the point. Yes, both offenses struggled. But the Ravens offense didn't struggle because Jackson failed to execute. Jackson completed 64% of his passes, threw 3 TD passes and ran for 30 yards. He misfired on only a half dozen passes. Allen, on the other hand, missed on a lot of his passes, and he got sacked six times. I was talking about plays that the players want back because of their personal performance. Jackson didn't have many - he executed the plays as drawn up, completed the passes, made the runs. Allen didn't. If Allen completed 64% of HIS passes, the Bills would have won.

On Tuesday morning, Lamar Jackson and his OC are looking at film of the Bills game. On how many plays does Lamar wish he had a do over? Three or five, including the INT. On Tuesday morning, Josh Allen and his OC are looking at film of the Ravens game. On how many plays does Allen wish he had a do over? Probably about 15. The game is about making the right decision and executing. Jackson outplayed Allen.

Allen threw 14 more incomplete passes than Jackson. I don't think he had 14 throw aways. Look at their passer ratings; 102 vs. 62.

Defend Allen all you want, and minimize what Jackson did all you want, but answer me this: Which quarterback exploited a defensive breakdown to get the touchdown that was the difference in the game? I'll answer it. Jackson. Which quarterback kept drives alive running the ball? Which quarterback kept drives alive by avoiding sacks? It's just foolish to think that the difference in the QBs was not the difference in the game.

I said earlier in the thread that I think it was all about Allen and Jackson. Jackson dictated the kind of defense the Bills had to play, but the Ravens dictated to Allen. The Ravens stacked the line of scrimmage, took away the run and forced Allen to get rid of the ball quickly. Either because Allen couldn't do it or because Daboll didn't adjust properly, they stopped the Bills offense. It is true, of course, that if you take away one play the game's tied. The further I get from the game, the more amazing the two defenses seem to me. They stuffed both offenses.

I didn't see a replay of it. During one of the games, late Sunday night or last night, the announcers said that the refs are making that call more often. They said that what teams have been doing is telling the tackle who gets double teamed to try to hold up both blockers so they can't slide off and block at the second level. So the refs have been looking for that holding and calling it more often in the past few weeks. Whether it actually was holding, who knows. The officials call what they think they see, but sometimes there's actually nothing there.

I think Ravens fans are saying the same think

That's interesting and I think an accurate description of what was going on. Allen has the arm and has shown the accuracy to be able to play that kind of game, provided he can handle the decision making. Unless I don't really understand, and Allen actually hasn't been able to handle it. The Bills should have been attacking the field differently, and either didn't try or don't have the players to do it. And on the other side of the ball, Baltimore's offense is built to play that way - everything is quick, short, and they come at you with enough speed that they put you back on your heels. So the conditions weren't as much of a problem for them. But the Bills defense is built to adjust to whatever you do on the field, so the Bills were making it very difficult for the Ravens to do what they wanted to do. The Ravens had as much trouble adjusting their offense to attack the Bills' defense as the Bills had trying to adjust. It turned out that the Ravens were just a bit better at getting SOMETHING out of their offense against our defense. Essentially both teams' offenses showed that they have trouble adjusting to good defense. As we've been discussing, among other things, the Bills could use an upgrade at receiver. And maybe at offensive coordinator. I think Daboll will be back next year, unless the Bills go on an amazing run and he starts getting HC inquiries. McDermott will take the view that everyone in the organization is learning their job, improving at it every year. McD isn't a finished product at HC - he'll tell you he's learning and improving all the time. They are so dedicated to that philosophy that everyone DOES get better. If Daboll was unable to adjust on Sunday, the one thing you can expect is that he will be better at adjusting next season. They are all learning on the job. Playing in the wind at New Era is a good example. Every stadium is different, and the wind is different. At New Era, it's also inconsistent. To have a true homefield advantage, you have know and understand the wind and how to play in it, even as it changes from game to game. As coaches, they come with some general knowledge of how to play in the wind, but the really valuable knowledge, the knowledge that gives you an actual advantage is accumulated over several years. It's knowledge that the players and the coaches acquire from experience in the games. Should Daboll have known better how to adjust? Yeah, probably. Will he have learned enough to do it better next time? Yeah, he probably will, because that kind of learning is what McDermott expects.

Ordinarily, it takes receivers a couple of years to have real impact, but the Bills don't need a huge upgrade. Someone who is a threat, even if he has flaws, can make the current crew more effective. A bigger Brown, a quicker Williams. Someone to add to the mix to divert the defensive attention. A real stud, of course, would be great, but a good, smart, big, quick guy who isn't a perennial Pro Bowler would make a difference. It's why I still want to see Williams. I think it's possible that he'd add a dimension that would attract attention. For example, if Williams had run Brown's route on Allen's last pass, he wouldn't have been covered any better - it would be impossible to cover him better than Brown was covered. Williams might have caught that ball. All the Bills need is someone who is something of a problem. Brown and Beasley are problems; the other guys are not.